Tag Archives: Solar cycle 24

February solar data shows the Sun to still be slumping – but NASA says ‘twin peaks’ may happen

Posted on March 6, 2013 by

The data from SWPC is in, and it is lethargic at best. Sunspot numbers took a hit, down to about 42,  a delta of ~50 lower compared to the red prediction line. 10.7 cm solar radio flux took a similar … Continue reading →

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Posted in Solar | Tagged , , , , | 196 Comments

How long to the 24/25 solar minimum?

Posted on March 5, 2013 by

Guest post by David Archibald Climate has real world consequences, and those operating in fields that will be affected by changing climate bring a different perspective to the problem of predicting what will happen. Bill Fordham, advising the grain industry … Continue reading →

Posted in Science, Solar | Tagged , , , , , , , | 81 Comments

Solar Update February 2013

Posted on February 25, 2013 by

Guest post by David Archibald Solar Cycle 24 has already seen five consecutive colder winters. This is a link to a post about a German meteorologist who has seen the light. Eventually people will work their way back to where … Continue reading →

Posted in Science, Solar | Tagged , , , | 177 Comments

December solar activity in a big slump

Posted on January 9, 2013 by

The December data from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center is in, and it looks more and more like the peak of solar cycle 24 has been reached, and that we are now past it. Even with documented problems like “sunspot … Continue reading →

Posted in Solar | Tagged , , , | 202 Comments

Our current solar cycle 24 – still in a slump – solar max reached?

Posted on December 10, 2012 by

Have we hit solar max? NOAA’s SWPC recently updated their solar metrics graphs, and it seems to me like we may have topped out for solar cycle 24. There doesn’t seem to be any evidence of resurgence in any of … Continue reading →

Posted in Science, Solar | Tagged , , , | 189 Comments

When will it start cooling?

Posted on August 13, 2012 by

Guest post by David Archibald My papers and those of Jan-Erik Solheim et al predict a significant cooling over Solar Cycle 24 relative to Solar Cycle 23. Solheim’s model predicts that Solar Cycle 24, for the northern hemisphere, will be … Continue reading →

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NASA June 2012 Solar Cycle 24 Prediction

Posted on June 8, 2012 by

Compiled by Joe D’aleo WeatherBell via NASA MSFC The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 60 in the Spring of 2013. We are currently over three years into Cycle 24. The current … Continue reading →

Posted in Solar, Spaceweather | Tagged , , , , , , , | 83 Comments

Solar Update March 2012

Posted on March 15, 2012 by

by David Archibald Figure 1: Heliospheric Current Sheet Tilt Angle 1976 – 2012 The heliospheric current sheet tilt angle is currently at 67°. Solar maximum occurs when it reaches 74° – so a little bit further to go.

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Quantifying the Solar Cycle 24 Temperature Decline

Posted on February 11, 2012 by

Guest post by David Archibald Three wise Norwegians – Jan-Erik Solheim, Kjell Stordahl and Ole Humlum – have just published a paper entitled “The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24”. It is available online … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, Science, Solar | Tagged , , , , , , , | 210 Comments

First Estimate of Solar Cycle 25 Amplitude – may be the smallest in over 300 years

Posted on January 25, 2012 by

Guest post by David Archibald Predicting the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 was a big business. Jan Janssens provides the most complete table of Solar Cycle 24 predictions at: http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24.html Prediction activity for Solar Cycle 24 seemed to have peaked … Continue reading →

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Solar Cycle 24 Length and Its Consequences

Posted on January 8, 2012 by

Guest post by David Archibald Solar Cycle 24 is now three years old and predictions of the date of solar maximum have settled upon mid-2013. For example, Jan Janssens has produced this graph predicting the month of maximum in mid-2013, … Continue reading →

Posted in Science, Solar | Tagged , , , | 140 Comments

Hathaway’s November Solar Prediction

Posted on November 6, 2011 by

By David Archibald Joe D’Aleo asked for my comments on NASA’s James Hathaway’s latest solar prediction, available here: http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml When I read May 2013 for solar cycle maximum, I thought “That is my prediction”. But then at the bottom of … Continue reading →

Posted in Science, Solar | Tagged , , , , | 125 Comments

Big jumps in September solar activity metrics

Posted on October 5, 2011 by

NOAA’s Space weather prediction center released their solar cycle progression updates, and it shows one of the largest jumps for all common solar metrics since cycle 24 began. Of course we know that the sunspot number has jumped significantly partly … Continue reading →

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Archibald: Solar Based Climate Forecast to 2050

Posted on July 13, 2011 by

Guest post by David Archibald When I started out in climate science in 2005, the climate people ignored the solar physics community. A casual perusal of the literature though indicated that the difference in climate outcome from Dikpati’s (NASA) estimate … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting | Tagged , , , | 195 Comments

Update on solar cycle 24

Posted on April 7, 2011 by

NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center posted an update to their graphs today. They show the largest gains in solar cycle 24 tracking metrics I’ve seen yet. See graphs below:

Posted in Science, Solar | Tagged , , , | 136 Comments

Sol is finally waking up

Posted on March 10, 2011 by

Let’s hope he does get out of the wrong side of the bed. The current sunspot count and 10.7 cm radio flux have increased in the latest NOAA SWPC graphs, shown below. but curiously, the Ap magnetic index remains low. … Continue reading →

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