![Snow-Israel-Massive-Storm-Jerusalem-2-DM[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/snow-israel-massive-storm-jerusalem-2-dm1.jpg?quality=83)
Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Remember all the recent press about the mild winter, how the bears were waking up early, flowers blooming in December, all a sign of the coming global warming apocalypse?
Now that winter has turned cold and snowy, this is also being seen in some quarters, as irrefutable proof of our unnatural tampering with the balance of nature.
Sorry! Winter Storm Jonas doesn’t make climate change a liberal hoax
Good news, folks! It turns out that climate change is a big ol’ liberal hoax after all. Need proof? Just look out your window: If you’re anywhere east of Tupelo, you’re probably seeing a bunch of white stuff falling from the sky, compliments of Winter Storm Jonas. We call that “snow,” and it proves once and for all that “global warming” is a conspiracy dreamed up by known communist Al Gore to bring down the world economy. Guess we can just pack up our desks and go home.
…
But what is the connection between climate change and snow storms? First, it’s important to remember that weather and climate are two different things: Weather is the rain falling on your head as you walk to work; climate is the very long-term forecast. NASA puts it this way: “An easy way to remember the difference is that climate is what you expect, like a very hot summer, and weather is what you get, like a hot day with pop-up thunderstorms.”
And, according to actual scientists and not conspiracy-addled politicians, climate change could actually make snow storms worse. ThinkProgress spoke to Michael Mann, the nation’s preeminent climatologist, about Winter Storm Jonas, which is currently blanketing the eastern seaboard in feet of snow. He said this is not a fluke. “There is peer-reviewed science that now suggests that climate change will lead to more of these intense, blizzard-producing nor’easter,” according to Mann. This is because a warming climate means increased moisture in the atmosphere, and when cold air meets moisture — surprise! — it snows. Sometimes a lot, like we’re seeing right now.
…
Read more: http://grist.org/article/sorry-winter-storm-jonas-doesnt-make-climate-change-a-liberal-hoax/
When you have a theory which covers anything from 1.5c to 4.5c (or more!) temperature rise per doubling of CO2, and when you can claim with a straight face, that the utter failure of your theory, on terms which you yourself defined, doesn’t invalidate it, when you have to massively adjust the data to get the result you want, your faith in the climate religion is not going to be troubled by the odd flurry of snow.
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So Winter Storm Judas is proof of CAGWarming/Cooling?
A theory which predicts everything, predicts nothing. I read that here.
Global Warming is where you establish the conditions and assumptions after you have “proved” them. Karl Popper summed up this fallacy as applied to science with “A theory that explains everything, explains nothing”.
Regards
Climate Heretic
“Grist.org?” Seriously? Maybe we should consider the source once in awhile. This one makes “Rolling Stone” look like serious journalism by comparison.
“WarmColdDroughtFlood”
This is THE singular weather event that can be blamed on the magical-yet-evil gas.
(I learned that here.)
Winter storm Judas is the betrayer of ENSO, the heat pump that helps to keep us from plummeting into the next cryospheric crisis for Homo Sapiens of all makes and models…
Gunga Din,
No. It’s not inconsistent with global warming irrespective of cause.
It was inconsistent., now that snow is not a thing of the past” it is part of the al inclusive cabal. “Weather is the rain falling on your head as you walk to work; climate is the very long-term forecast” (See, now climate is an IPCC long range model projection, not what actually happens.
During the previous two heavy snow winters in the NE, CAGW scientist talked about how additional W/V caused more snow. The problem was that there was not additional precipitation. The snow was actually very dry, but in the very cold weather (noticed I said weather) the dry puffy stuff accumulated deeper, but precipitation did not increase. You do not get record great lakes ice with more precipitation, but with more snow.
correction, “You do not get record great lakes ice with more precipitation, but with more COLD.
Even Hansen knew CO2 is not causing more extreme weather…
Was the weather better below 350 ppm? Absolutely not.
================================================================================
“Empirical evidence does not lend much support to the notion that climate is headed precipitately toward more extreme heat and drought. The drought of 1999 covered a smaller area than the 1988 drought, when the Mississippi almost dried up. And 1988 was a temporary inconvenience as compared with repeated droughts during the 1930s “Dust Bowl” that caused an exodus from the prairies, as chronicled in Steinbeck’s Grapes of Wrath.”
James Hansen – the world’s #1 climate alarmist
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/hansen_07/
No increase in heavy precipitation events…
?w=1280&h=780
or heat waves…
US hurricane strikes…
Severe tornadoes count…
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/01/30/spectacular-climate-fraud-from-the-white-house/
In 1908, 1983 and 2014 the NY times announced the end of snow in New York…
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/01/05/in-1908-scientist-said-snow-was-a-thing-of-the-past-in-new-york/
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/12/23/1983-snow-was-a-thing-of-the-past-in-new-york/
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/02/12/new-york-times-says-snow-is-a-thing-of-the-past-2/
It’s “not inconsistent” with the moon being made of bleu cheese. So, what’s your point?
wetterdryerfreezinghotflooddroughtwinterstormhurricane-nohurricane is “not inconsistent with global warming.” THAT’s the problem. if the hypothesis includes everything and everything is “not inconsistent” with it, then the hypothesis, and your statement, is meaningless and irrelevant
Brandon Gates
January 24, 2016 at 10:53 pm
Gunga Din,
“
So Winter Storm Judas is proof of CAGWarming/Cooling?
No. It’s not inconsistent with global warming irrespective of cause.
OF COURSE NOT…
Brandon…and this very simple fact is proven in the fact that …
NOTHING is inconsistent with the Global Warming/Climate Change hypothesis irrespective of cause.
If I am incorrect that nothing will disprove Climate Change, simply list any weather or climate related event which would disprove the hypothesis.
just one
Any at all
You have the mic.
Brandon Gates
January 24, 2016 at 10:53 pm
Gunga Din,
“
So Winter Storm Judas is proof of CAGWarming/Cooling?
No. It’s not inconsistent with global warming irrespective of cause.
Brandon
There doesn’t appear to be anything that IS inconsistent with Global Warming
Can you name or list any weather related event that cannot be used to bolster the Climate Change theology?
Just one
Any at all
But, keep in mind, if it does occur then you must admit the theory to be invalid
David A,
I don’t know of any prior global predictions for no snow by the middle of this decade. Perhaps you can provide one? I do know of one fellow who was quoted in popular press invoking the concept of snow in the UK soon being a thing of the past.
No citations of course. But for sake of argument I’ll trust you. Two seasons of highly-variable weather in a relatively small geographical area do not a long-term global trend make. Now let’s review what’s been said in this subthread:
Gunga Din: So Winter Storm Judas is proof of CAGWarming/Cooling?
Me: No. It’s not inconsistent with global warming irrespective of cause.
Do you think you can pry yourself out of “proving” your conspiracy theories long enough to address my actual argument?
Which we’re not seeing this boreal winter, perhaps because of the relative warmth due to El Nino. Or it could simply be weather:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/02/22/great-lakes-ice-coverage-in-striking-distance-of-a-record/
http://pamola.um.maine.edu/Reanalysis_daily/images/WORLD-CED/T2_anom/2015/CFSR_WORLD-CED_T2_anom_2015-02-22.jpg
The globe is a bigger place than your backyard. The reality almost certainly is that today’s weather is the net combination of long- and short-term natural variability on top of long-term, upwardly-trending anthropogenic influences. However, one or two seasons of localized weather phenomena don’t “prove” or “disprove” arguments for or against global warming or cooling be they mainly due to natural or anthropogenic causes.
Bryan A,
Are you still beating your wife? I can’t answer that question in the positive as phrased without admitting that AGW is a theology.
I can say as I have previously that no single weather event, or even a single season of weather events “proves” or “disproves” global warming or cooling.
Little reminder from two days ago: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/01/23/2015-global-temp-or-how-some-scientists-deliberately-mistook-weather-for-climate
One wonders if David Whitehouse was mistaken about who’s making deliberate mistakes here.
That doesn’t follow. The prediction of increased specific humidity due to oceanic warming, and thereby possibly global increases in precipitation, is agnostic to the cause of warming, which is exactly what I alluded in my original comment:
Gunga Din: So Winter Storm Judas is proof of CAGWarming/Cooling?
Me: No. It’s not inconsistent with global warming irrespective of cause.
It’s not inconsistent with global warming irrespective of cause.
By that argument, neither is flying a kite. The problem is testability and the null hypothesis. Storms are storms. There’s nothing unusual or unprecedented about this one, no matter what the talking heads on TV say.
Actually Brandon, I prefer this cartoon.
http://i255.photobucket.com/albums/hh154/crocko05/Itscalledweather_zps4d90f653.jpg
Phil R,
I agree, for it would be a stretch to presume that Earth’s climate affects the Moon’s composition.
Was I not clear enough?
Gunga Din: So Winter Storm Judas is proof of CAGWarming/Cooling?
Me: No.
Naw. The problem being addressed in the Grist article Worrall is writing about in his OP are people who point to regional weather events like Winter Storm Jonas and say, “it’s snowing like crazy in the Eastern US, which ‘proves’ AGW is false,” e.g., Inhofe’s snowball stunt on the Senate floor last winter:
http://grist.org/climate-energy/inhofe-threw-a-snowball-on-the-senate-floor-and-therefore-climate-change-isnt-real/
Inhofe, who wrote the book The Greatest Hoax: How the Global Warming Conspiracy Threatens Your Future, took to the floor to decry the “hysteria on global warming.”
“In case we have forgotten, because we keep hearing that 2014 has been the warmest year on record, I ask the chair, ‘You know what this is?’” he said, holding up a snowball. “It’s a snowball, from outside here. So it’s very, very cold out. Very unseasonable.”
“Catch this,” he said to the presiding officer, tossing the blob of snow.
Inhofe went on to list the recent cold temperatures across parts of the United States, which included 67 new record lows earlier this week according to the National Weather Service, as evidence that global warming claims are overhyped. “We hear the perpetual headline that 2014 has been the warmest year on record. But now the script has flipped.”
… or Donald Trump on Twitter with similar rhetoric:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/408977616926830592?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/314744479821205505?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
That’s a lot of ifs. If one includes a lot of ifs in a statement, one can make pretty much any argument one wants, especially if one doesn’t want to deal with the actual arguments being made and if they just want to believe whatever it they want to believe about reality.
Strictly hypothetically speaking of course.
My comment has been quoted a lot.
If, and only if, politics was just “weathering the weather”, no problem. (Better if they prepare for it.) But they’ve latched onto Man being the cause. The “spin cycle” keeps changing the name of the supposed result of Man’s existence on the weather (and the need to regulate/control/profit from it) as Ma’ Gaia has stubbornly refused to cooperate.
The actually “cause” of the weather is the crux of the issue.
The spin has made any event or (adjusted) record a justification for profit and control.
dbstealey,
I agree, because so far as I’m aware climatologists haven’t been saying anything about there being no wind as a result of warming due to any cause.
I agree, consistent with what I said in my very first comment of this thread:
Gunga Din: So Winter Storm Judas is proof of CAGWarming/Cooling?
Me: No. It’s not inconsistent with global warming irrespective of cause.
Why are you challenging me about something upon which we apparently already agree?
I wasn’t aware of anyone arguing on Tee Vee that this was an unprecedented storm, but that’s because I don’t watch much of it.
BruceC,
It would be funnier if there were more an element of truth to it, like this one:
Which I think is hysterically funny.
OTOH, if I look at the cartoon you posted as a parody of your position, well yes, that would be quite amusing. As I’m reading it though, not so much — I don’t think advocating perpetual ignorance is very funny at all.
Gunga Din,
I agree.
Your personal suppositions aren’t any better evidence of whether the planet is warming or cooling for whatever cause than Winter Storm Judas. Worse in fact, if that’s possible, because at least the storm exhibits some of the relevant physical phenomena whereas Ma’ Gaia could give two squats about our political views. Try being a little more consistent in your skepticism.
Response to Brandon Gates;
Brandon quotes, David A, says ”
It was inconsistent., now that snow is not a thing of the past” it is part of the all inclusive cabal.
Brandon presents straw-man, “I don’t know of any prior global predictions for no snow by the middle of this decade. Perhaps you can provide one? I do know of one fellow who was quoted in popular press invoking the concept of snow in the UK soon being a thing of the past.”
======================================================================
Now now Brandon, your old straw-man tricks, questioning me on things I never stated. Here is another study, other than Dr.David Viner’s UK reference, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/18/climate-change-tourism-industry_n_5503881.html?utm_hp_ref=green (Oh BTW Brandon, your “some guy” is a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, and these folk often base their studies on the “wrong to the observations” IPCC modeled mean of overheated models.)
There are of course many more such academic alarmist stories. Shall I look those up for you? “15 years after Dr Viner embarrassed the British Climate Research Unit, Griffith University in Australia has just joined the growing list of academic institutions which have predicted the “end of snow”. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/07/19/another-end-of-snow-prediction/
Brandon, shall I look up more for you? This is one of your typical tactics; make a generalized statement / straw-man, and then force someone to begin to document what everyone who has studied the subject knows; there were many predictions of less snow, industries having to close down, etc. Next time simply say, “ I am ignorant of the subject, please point to examples of climate scientists predicting a decline in snow cover causing harm to humans.” However, being an astute chap, capable of your own research, do it yourself before pontificating. I suggest begin at WUWT search box, and expand your limited horizons from there.
Now Brandon, as you have been told before, CAGW is not solely a scientific process, but clearly a political one as well. Many alarmist articles reference quotes from scientists. If they do not agree, why do they not publically say so? Before I go, one more aid to your research… http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/01/04/baked-alaska-propaganda-film-suggests-children-in-alaska-have-no-snow/ In about 15 hours of research you will be familiar with the subject.
==========================================================================
Brandn nexts quotes me…
” During the previous two heavy snow winters in the NE, CAGW scientist talked about how additional W/V caused more snow. The problem was that there was not additional precipitation.”
Brandon says, “No citations of course. But for sake of argument I’ll trust you. (Thanks Brandon, I cannot do all your research but I am correct.) Two seasons of highly-variable weather in a relatively small geographical area do not a long-term global trend make.”
=============================================================
Brandon, Brandon, there you go again. When did I say, “Two seasons of highly-variable weather in a relatively small geographical area do not a long-term global trend make”? That’s right I did not. Instead I linked to charts showing no change in NH trends. (the very “long-term global trends” you asked for !!!)
=============================================================
Brandons continues…
Now let’s review what’s been said in this subthread:
Gunga Din: So Winter Storm Judas is proof of CAGWarming/Cooling?
Me: No. It’s not inconsistent with global warming irrespective of cause.
Do you think you can pry yourself out of “proving” your conspiracy theories long enough to address my actual argument?
=================================================
Brandon, as others have pointed out to you, nothing is inconsistent with more/less of anything in constantly changing weather. But global and hemispheric trends do not bear out the alarmist claims of scientists and media. Once again, CAGW fails on simple basic science.
==================================================
Brandon quotes me, “You do not get record great lakes ice with more precipitation, but with more COLD.”
Brandon says, “Which we’re not seeing this boreal winter, perhaps because of the relative warmth due to El Nino. Or it could simply be weather:”
================================================
Well yes Brandon, now get your alarmist scientist and media friends to admit the same, for they were the ones to claim that the last two heavy snow NE winters were consistent with CAGW increasing W/V causing more snow in warmer T, when in fact we were having very cold winters in the NE region.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/02/22/great-lakes-ice-coverage-in-striking-distance-of-a-record/
Brandon, a quote may be informative for you…
… it is always possible to find some way of evading falsification, for example by introducing ad hoc an auxiliary hypothesis, or by changing ad hoc a definition. It is even possible without logical inconsistency to adopt the position of simply refusing to acknowledge any falsifying experience whatsoever. Admittedly, scientists do not usually proceed in this way, but logically such procedure is possible.” ( Who said it Brandon?)
Brandon, does fifty excuses for the pause, followed by “simply refusing to acknowledge any falsifying experience whatsoever, ring any bells for you?
Any weather at all is proof of global warming.
It’s just like any religion. Something weird happens? ‘Its GodSwill’ they cry. Nothing much happens at all? How weird is THAT? ‘Its GodSwill’…
True.
It’s also and equally “not inconsistent with” divine wrath!
But that doesn’t mean you should throw a virgin into Pele’s volcano in Hawaii.
Although that’s better than raising energy process and killing a lot more people.
“Although that’s better than…”
Yep, unless it’s your daughter.
Depends on the daughter. 😉
I’ve started to think lately that secular beliefs, like AGW, are taking the place of religious belief in public life. Certainly people have the kind of glassy-eyed, fervent clutching not open to discussion when it comes to many of these largely media-created memes. Suspect identifiers include the same apocalyptic thinking, the same collective guilt, the same “you can never be GOOD enough” happy horseshit. Among the over-educated, you’re “stupid” and unfashionable now if you believe in religion, but they think this makes you look “smart.” Plain case of transference if you ask me!
Well, as the saying goes: “Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.” Now that we have decided that every noticeable weather event, or the absence thereof, is indeed due to man-made climate change, we finally ARE doing something about it! I think that’s progress.
It should be remembered that for over 70 per cent of the time since 1940 as CO2 has
Increased constantly global temperatures have either decreased or remained steady.
That fact alone disproves the UN unfounded supposition that man made CO2 CAUSES
Global warming.
Amen!
Below is a graph of the CET which highlights two 38 year periods, 1694-1732 and 1963-2001.
http://i255.photobucket.com/albums/hh154/crocko05/CET_%20CO2_zps2fencba5.jpg
So they say. But they can’t reconcile their predictions of ever increasing “extreme” weather with the raw weather data.
Here in Harrisburg, PA we received a record 30.2 inches. Now according to Global Bullshit Theory, we should have been seeing constant heavy snowstorms leading up to this one over the last 20 years. Did we? No. The last record snowday was in 1984 with 24 inches and it has only reached over 10 inches four times in the last 16 years, twice in 2010, once in 2003 and now this one in 2016. Of the first three mentioned, the maximum was only 12.6 inches in 2003. Where’s the more frequent and increasing snowstorms, Mr Mann?
I looked up our local data and compiled a chart of the hottest years by determining which had the most days over 90F. Turns out that 1983 was the hottest year with 51 days over 90F and the 1950’s was the hottest decade with 6 years with 29 or more 90F days on record here in central Pennsylvania. 2010, the only one of this century on the list, came in tied for 12th with 1993, both with 29 days over 90F and no days over 100F! So much for increasing heat waves of lasting duration.
Of the years with the most record highs, 1941, 1990 and 1991 topped the list with 13. Only year of the century was 2002, was tied in 4th place with 1945,1950,1970, and 1974 with 7 record breaking highs per year. Hottest day recorded? 1966, 107F. It has only hit 100F or more only three times in the last 16 years, highest 102F in 2011. So where’s the unprecedented warming?
Now how can that be? Global Bullshit Theory says that this is the hottest year on record. Where? Certainly not here. We should be seeing a steady rise in temperatures, more days over 90F, more days over 100F, more records broken…. but we’re not.
Raw unadjusted local weather data. Our best weapon against the bullshit. I’ve already shut up some twit claiming it rarely snows in the Hudson Valley by feeding him the weather data for his own region. 71 inches of snow last year alone. When they hear their local weather records, it hits home.. literally.. and makes them think twice about making bullshit blanket claims of planet wide warming and “extreme” weather. When you pull their minds out of the sensationalist headlines and the abstract, and shove them face first into their local reality, it breaks through to them.
I will be slamming them with their own records from now on. It works on their doomsday addicted brains. Damn the Adjustments! Full reality ahead!
Very good Andyj. Surely someone will say yes but it was only in your area. The rest of the world was hotter, colder, snowerier, wetter, drier, stormier, less stormy, bug infested, less bug infested. I think it is just amazing that the rest of the world could be warming and the US not much at all.
Would some explain “…that the utter failure of your theory, on terms which you yourself defined, doesn’t invalidate it…”
(highlighting/editing mine)
(Quote is from link in above post attached to phrase: “you yourself defined;” that link is repeated here for your convenience: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/15/noaas-15-year-statement-from-2008-puts-a-kibosh-on-the-current-met-office-insignificance-claims-that-global-warming-flatlined-for-16-years/ )
TY Janice….and that seems to be the desperation to adjust/homogenize the land station temps and the Karl butchery of the ocean temps to eliminate the ‘pause’ (at least on their books).
I’d say, Mr. K., that your deduction about the operational motive for NOAA’s outlier new dataset (where virtually ALL of the adjustments, HEY WADDAYA KNOW, make for a higher warming trend) is correct. The underlying motivation appears to be two-fold: 1) Enviroprofiteers such as windmill sc@mmers need human CO2 to be bad to keep tax and rate surcharge money headed their way (or they will have a negative ROI); and 2) Envirostalinists of several stripes want to cripple the U.S. — a weak enough giant is a defeated giant.
And then, of course, they moved the goalposts so that it is 20 or 30 years of no warming as they clutched a bunch of straws.
So they set up their own null hypotheses and ended up showing there is no difference between natural climate change and CO2 driven climate change, so added CO2 cannot be driving significant climate change at 95% confidence.
So it was conspiracy-addled politicians that sent that letter about bringing RICO charges against skeptics? I thought they claimed to be scientist.
(To which group do thin-skinned, sue-happy egotist belong?)
By what mechanism could CO2 possibly cause global cooling? The only mechanism they have define is to cause warming.
Try this on:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL066749/full
AGU Research Letter
How increasing CO2 leads to an increased negative greenhouse effect in Antarctica
Abstract
CO2 is the strongest anthropogenic forcing agent for climate change since pre-industrial times. Like other greenhouse gases, CO2 absorbs terrestrial surface radiation and causes emission from the atmosphere to space. As the surface is generally warmer than the atmosphere, the total long-wave emission to space is commonly less than the surface emission. However, this does not hold true for the high elevated areas of central Antarctica. For this region, the emission to space is higher than the surface emission; and the greenhouse effect of CO2 is around zero or even negative, which has not been discussed so far. We investigated this in detail and show that for central Antarctica an increase in CO2 concentration leads to an increased long-wave energy loss to space, which cools the Earth-atmosphere system. These findings for central Antarctica are in contrast to the general warming effect of increasing CO2.
==================
That is for Antarctica. I suppose it does answer the question, though the answer isn’t generally relevant to everybody on the planet because we don’t live in the Antarctica.
From the AGU paper linked by JoelOBryan above:
IOW: junk science.
NO data. Just models based on pure speculation with not one quantitative measurement proving causation by CO2 of climate change. Just unsupported assertions.
*************************
Data from ice core proxies strongly indicates that: CO2 lags temperature by a quarter cycle.
It’s like the sound of one hand clapping…
So Janice,
are not satellite observations data?
“Satellite observations presented demonstrate that over central Antarctica a negative greenhouse effect (see next chapter) occurs frequently and that Antarctica is the only place on Earth where the greenhouse effect is below zero on yearly average.”
From the AGU link, “As the surface is generally warmer than the atmosphere, the total long-wave emission to space is commonly less than the surface emission.”
===================================
Un no, I think not. The overall LWIR emission to space must equal the surface emission. Any change in the residence time of said emission will either warm or cool until a balance is restored.
Why is Man made CO2 the cause of GW. Man made CO2 is only 3 per cent of the total
amount of CO2. Does the other 97 percent Which is naturally produced play no role at all??
Nope. Not a bit of it. It’s all the fault of those evil fossil fuel companies and their horrible emissions.
So the Global Bullshit Theory states.
And, if it is wet or snowy it’s climate, if it is a drought or dry, it’s climate….
Yes, that’s why the term ‘climate change’ was chosen to replace the original warming propaganda. It must remain ‘our fault’ no matter what the current ‘anomalous’ conditions are at any given moment somewhere on the planet. The fantasy is that a green world order can offer a world free of weather anomalies.
Yeah, my co conspirators and paid for friends all agree with me. We’re all of the same consensus. 97% agree with me because we are all on the same free money for BS, govm’t sponsored bandwagon. That’s why I’m voting for Hillary. She knows the game… Swank, I mean. For best actress in a horror pic.
C’mon . S**c
Michael Mann may want to read up on his weather history. Or maybe the massive blizzard of 1978 doesn’t count because it occurred before 1979, you know the year when modern record keeping started. One might note that it was 38 years ago which is prior to the current global warming/climate change scare.
I know Wikipedia is not a valid reference but this link does contain general information about the storm for those who weren’t alive then.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northeastern_United_States_blizzard_of_1978
Was that the same storm as ? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blizzard_of_1978 Seems quite close in time not to be, but never heard it claimed by NE before,
Anyway, snow = white = reflect sunlight (like clouds) which is one of the reason the earth has a self-correcting climate system. Warm weather = water evaporating which turns into clouds and snow which reflect sunlight.
I have been trying to find an estimate of maximum possible warming due to water vapor. It seems that once vapor becomes cloud cover, that would be the max since clouds reflect light and/or produce cooling rain.
Anybody have any estimates?
And of course a couple weeks earlier, apparently a [separate] storm, brought the midwest to a standstill.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blizzard_of_1978
There is surprisingly little on the web about the midwest blizzard. I recently updated my addendum to my main page about the northeast storm and was disappointed to have to drop off a couple of good links. One went to a NWS page, I was very sorry to see they took that down. Perhaps I’ll check the Wikipedia page for some links I don’t know about.
See http://wermenh.com/blizz78a.html “for the rest of the story.” New Englanders who remember Don Kent (deceased) and Bob Copeland (still active, see http://www.bobcopelandart.com/ ) will definitely want to read my page.
@ur momisugly Ric Werme 2.05 pm, “There is surprisingly little on the web about the midwest blizzard.”, Don’t you know the real name for the mid west? They call it “Fly over Country”. None of the snobs from the West or East coast likely even know the name of the States that are there!
The matriarch of a Boston Brahmin family was introduced to a visitor from out west.
“I’m pleased to meet you,” she said. “Where do you live?”
“I’m from Ohio,” the visitor replied.
“That’s nice,” the lady said, adding “here we pronounce it Iowa.”
I grew up in Ohio, my wife has a lot of family in Michigan, her nephew works for Google, first in Chicago, now in Detroit. Another nephew has received some significant recognition for the UX (User experience) work he’s done for Sear’s mobile commerce web site.
Heck, I think I installed the first FTP client program when I was at CMU (Pittsburgh, not midwest) and was the only site ready to run the new Telnet protocol on the date the ARPAnet was supposed to switch to it.
You may fly over it, but there’s a lot of people in the area, and a lot who were impacted by their blizzard in 1978.
I think it’s more likely that the northeast has more weather nuts than the midwest. Weather is one reason I’m in New England and not California. It was quite a treat in 1974 discovering that all of Boston’s TV stations had top notch meteorologists on duty. (Second rate TV mets don’t survive here long especially when they discover all the things Mark Twain said about New England weather were accurate!)
1978 storm…..CT and Mass shut down highways for 3 full days; forgot what NY did. The 1978 blizzard was the worst in my lifetime – the only one that was ‘historic’ after 1938.
Yes, and I was there in ’78. I personally measured 39 inches fresh snow in the center of my backyard (flat snow level, not drift) where there was none before the storm.
http://www.quahog.org/factsfolklore/index.php?id=63
Wikipedia is fine for noncontroversial subjects, like the atomic weight of Xenon, or how much it snowed in Poughkeepsie in 1978.
Our own government publishes a list of DC storms.
http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter_DC-Winters
Odd — on that weather.gov list, “Great Blizzard of 1978” does not appear at all; instead, it says that the “Presidents’ Day” blizzard of 1979 was the worst DC storm in 57 years. ??
And I remember a DC snowstorm a full week earlier than the “Great Blizzard” because my best friend’s kid was born in the middle of it. True, I don’t remember how bad the “birthday blizzard” was; once I got off the Beltway (not long before they shut it down for the storm), I hunkered down and stayed there. But I sure remember the date.
None of the 77/78 storms impacted DC to a great degree. The northeast blizzard was primarily a New England event.
The recent storm brought me (near Concord NH) no snow whatsoever. None, nada. And I’m not very happy about it! (The big storms for me are often rain producers for Boston, as we need a somewhat inland track to bring enough moisture to us.)
There were three major storms in early 1978. Follow along at http://wermenh.com/blizz78.html written about Marlboro, Massachusetts.
1) On Jan. 20, 1978 a coastal storm set a new 24 hour record for snow in Boston, 25.1″.
This was not a windy storm, hence it was not a blizzard. If Michael Mann wants to water vapor and precip, then this is an important storm to count. However, it was quickly forgotten due to what was to come.
http://wermenh.com/images/bliz78_jan.jpg
2) On Jan 26, another storm came through well to our west and was the midwest blizzard of 1978.
It set the record low pressure in the US for a non-tropical storm and brought 100 mph winds to Cleveland. From snow maps in Weatherwise Magazine it looks like the rain reduced our snow to about a foot, and to a few inches at the coast. NY Times articles talked about flooding in NYC.
3) On Feb 6, snow started around 1100, the worst possible time, and the northeast blizzard of 1978 was underway.
By nightfall, most roads were impassable and I had my all time best drive in the snow, one that cannot be improved upon.
http://wermenh.com/images/bliz78b.jpg
These three storms produced a huge amount of precip, I should dig up some NOAA records and tell Michael Mann about them. And I should tell him about the flooding in 1927. And the Hurricane of 1938 that clobbered New England after a previous storm had saturated the ground. If you look at New England forests, expect to find a lot of trees that started growing in 1939.
Adding to this story, in the Newark, NJ public library is the account of severe flooding in north Jersey with pictures about 1910.
So if global warming causes more snow, doesn’t snow have a high albedo and thus cause cooling, or did I miss a class along the way?
Global Warming causes Global Cooling which causes Climate Disruption which causes Global Warming.
All caught up on the science of this argument?
….. most unfortunately though, it also causes climate policy that requires climate justice to pay for climate resilience, for climate liars and climate profiteers to skim a percentage of the climate wealth transfer
Ah… you forgot Climate Weirding….
@trebla.. You missed this class also: How do you explain the following:
Atmospheric CO2 has risen by 100 parts per million (one part per ten thousand) over the past century.
Experts claim that this one molecule has heated the other 10,000 molecules up by more than one degree centigrade.
In order for one molecule to heat up 10,000 other molecules by 1°C, the effective temperature of that one
molecule would have to be 10,000°C – about twice the temperature of the surface of the Sun.
How is this possible???
Aw, c’mon . . . Math is Hard, especially for politicians. Though they seem able to cook the books.
Goldrider,
The culinary arts are distinct from those of the mathemagician.
Auto
Oh, come on!
I have a little tiny heater that warms my whole living room by more than ten degrees, and it never gets too hot to touch, even though the room is hundreds of times more massive than the heating element.
Besides, where do you get 10,000 from?
Four hundred parts per million is how many, expressed as a unit ratio?
Edmonton Al, 5.43 am, Hey maybe Al Gore had it right when he claimed the ground below us is millions and millions of degrees (snark)
Mikey Mann a preeminent climatologist ?? Really? They said all that with a straight face? More like a preeminent thin-skinned litigant.
Bueller seems to have left the building, but we might get an answer out of Wayne Spicoli.
I hear he is done with his interview down in Mexico.
I have suicidal thoughts when I read things like this:
Actually, now I’ve given it more thought, I’m very happy and have very positive thoughts for the future 😉
/sarc (Obviously!!)
(quote is quoted within above-posted article)
Answer: No.
The proof needed is: AGWers still need to present evidence that makes a prima facie case for their conjecture about human CO2.
The burden of proof still lies firmly with the AGWers. Here we are, over 25 years into their wild speculations and frantic conjecture about a “planetary emergency,” and as of today, AGWers have not presented one single piece of data proving that human CO2 emissions can change the climate of the earth, up or down, around, or inside out.
The burden of proving AGW is a valid hypothesis, that your speculation about human CO2 is even likely, much less certain, and not mere speculation, is still on you, O Climate Clowns.
FYI: the non-falsifiable conjecture that you have presented so far is NOT even a scientifically valid, falsifiable, “hypothesis” as so many gratuitously describe your feeble flaylings. That is, the phrase “AGW hypothesis” is nonsense.
Oh, and the Precautionary Fallacy — (i.e., “Well, soldier, ….. JUST IN CASE,….. we’re going to cut off your legs…. so you won’t have to have an amputation if you step on a land mine.”) — can be used to justify doing or not doing ANY-thing. It is not “proof.” Such verbal fluff is not a rational reason for limiting human CO2 emissions. ESPECIALLY when it is even less likely (so far, not one piece of evidence) that human CO2 causes any climate change than something as ridiculous as the landmine-amputation scenario which has a tiny bit of evidence for it; AGW has not one atom.
Keep up the good work, Janice!
🙂 (I’ve been shot at lately — HOOOWAAH! I’m over the target!!)
…Janice Moore ….131st Bombers squadron’s Ace of the Year !!!
Thank — you — Marcus… Canadian Navy Attack Squadron (or whatever they call it) Pilot of the Year!!!
And we’ll raise a glass on St. Patrick’s day to our favorite Irish Verbal Thunderfist!!!!!!!!
(you (eye roll))
One quip of iron,
the othern’ of steel,
if the sarcasm don’t getcha,
then, the hard facts will.
“Sixteen Tons” (sort of — lol)
(please do not misunderstand me, O Marcus, WUWT warrior-for-truth, that song only applies so far…. for instance, the phrase, “with a mind that’s weak” is NOT you!)
It’s over 40 years Janice, and more than a half doubling of the purported effect of atmospheric CO2
Thank you, Phil. EVEN BETTER. What a bunch of LOSERS!!
http://larouchepub.com/other/2007/sci_techs/3423init_warming_hoax.html
@ur momisugly philincal, @ur momisugly 8.01 pm Jan 24: That is one scary read, I am stunned at the length of time these criminals have been around and the influence they have at the highest levels. Looking at the overall situation on our plane it is no wonder China, Russia and others are taking full advantage over Western Nations the past 15-20 years. I grew up in the 50’s and firmly believed in the nuclear power industry and have always wondered why things like the ship like the Savannah did not have sister ships build It was a beautiful vessel, can you imagine if large cargo vessel would have to use bunker fuel to get around?
http://atomicinsights.com/cover-story-why-did-savannah-fail/
I believe that we should hold to a “precautionary principle”.
There should be some measures in place that are a precaution against allowing a small class of liberal elite academics, self-styled “scientists”, journalists and politicians from talking themselves into an apocalyptic panic and then aiming to destroy the normal function of once effective economies.
We should apply the “precautionary principle” and – not let idiots derail the greatest thing that man has ever created, a.k.a. the modern industrial world.
We should apply the “precautionary principle”
==================
unfortunately, the “precautionary principle” can be misused to justify anything.
for example. the most dangerous thing in the house is the bathtub. more people are killed and injured each year by the bathtub than any other device in the home. As such, it is only a matter of time before some government official will ban bathtubs for safety reasons, according to the “precautionary principle”
At that point, when the bathtub is banned, some other device in the home will become the most dangerous item. And eventually this will be banned as well. And this process will continue until the most dangerous thing in the house is people. At which time some well meaning official will ban people from houses, which will end all household injuries.
Now apply this logic to things outside the home and eventually we end up banning people from the planet. CO2 is simply the household bathtub on a planetary scale.
And this is why the concept of cost/benefit analysis is so strongly resisted by the eco-loons.
They will often resort to a response such as, “but, you cannot put a price on our children’s future”.
And then, the entire debate about policy becomes totally absurd and reality and reason are abandoned.
Personally I weigh up the cost/benefit in all cases.
And I factor in the likelihood of the event occuring.
Such an approach to decision making is a wicked crime in the minds of most “activists for change”.
Mainly for the simple reason that the change that they are advocating cannot, on such a basis, be rationally justified.
As a note of explanation – my claim that we should apply the precautionary principle was a satire on such claims.
I should have condensed my comment to “We should apply the precautionary principle by preventing people from applying the precautionary principle”.
Which in summation is what my comment was intended to imply.
@ur momisugly ferdberple , 7:10, am Let’s start with politicians.
“The proof needed is: AGWers still need to present evidence that makes a prima facie case for their conjecture about human CO2.”
Or what? What will happen if AGW is not proven to the satisfaction of AGW skeptics?
AGW will die from a cold death, if it is not proven. And the tipping point may already be in the works. First is the global average temperature record from 1997 till now, the results are consistent with satellite data. ( it was warmer in 1997 than now) And second is the incoming and outgoing energy budget. The math dedicated to proving the 0.5 C is entirely based on the retained w/m^2.
Nobody after this will be able to say that co2 is the cause of climate change. AGW will be dead. In fact with the current reported energy budget, there is no math that can substantiate AGW at all.
Action is already underway. Not just government agreements like those coming out of COP21, but private sector commitments from the Fortune 1000. So, once again, I respectfully disagree. If AGW skeptics want these actions to stop, they need to convince those who believe AGW is real that they are wrong.
Oops, posted on the wrong subthread. I’ll try again.
“The proof needed is: AGWers still need to present evidence that makes a prima facie case for their conjecture about human CO2.”
Or what? What will happen if AGW is not proven to the satisfaction of AGW skeptics?
Saw this on Climate Depot site yesterday.
It does not matter what happens, it was caused by global warming.
So it is written, so it shall be!
http://www.climatedepot.com/2016/01/22/nasa-warns-global-warming-means-anything-could-happen-huh-so-if-anything-happens-it-proves-global-warming/
It’s Irritable Climate Syndrome.
It causes Tourette’s.
Would like a bit of warming, please. It’s freezing here!
Hey RD, I asked two months ago…wait your turn ! LOL
I’m usually a step or two behind Marcus! They promised me no snow and global warming. Crap-weasels!
Michael Mann says he can make “global warming” fit any weather scenario you can come up with. Global warming causes *everything*!
The Earth is *not* experiencing unprecedented heat in the atmosphere. That is what Michael Mann and global warming advocates are claiming. We are not as hot as 1998, or 1934, so this can’t be correct.
At one time, Michael Mann voted for the year 1934, being the hottest year ever, before he voted against it.
Before we get into unprecedented atmospheric temperature territory, we are going to have to get hotter than it was in 1934, are we not?
TA
Dr. Mann is the Title IX wonder of the world!
Ha ha
Hey, this is my storm, not theirs. Its purpose is to disprove the theory that “Children Aren’t Going to Know What Snow Is“. I apologise for all the disruption that people are facing, but please recognise that this is for your children and grandchildren.
I thought of you every time they talked about this storm. Very clever to get your name on the worst storm in memory.
….Show off !! LOL
“Jonas, which could be renamed Storm Gertrude by the Met Office when it hits the UK, wreaked havoc in the US, with eleven states declaring a state of emergency.”
See here:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3415375/Storm-Jonas-killed-30-hit-Britain-TOMORROW-downpours-bringing-six-inches-rain-70mph-winds.html
I want my own epic storm too, but will settle for electing SMOD “sweet meteor of death” as US president.
SMOD …..”I have a few thoughts about existential threats”
https://twitter.com/smod2016?lang=en
“As POTUS I will fix your weather related problems thru a process I like to call Everybody Dies In A Fiery Apocalypse ” SMOD
:large
@ur momisugly RD well at least Obama got one thing right, he promised that all on his own he would stop SLR.
Atmospheric Physicist….your ‘time’ is the most precious function of your life; you are completely wasting time by dealing with D. Appell. His intelligence ends with “I’ll believe 97% of climate scientists”.
Yup. Here’s a little Appell piece for those unfamiliar with that man: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/05/28/paging-david-appell-and-nick-stokes-again-time-to-fess-up-and-apologize/
So climate modeling is expectations modeling.
And since the expectations of people doing modeling are based on models, climate is based on modeling so climate modeling is models modeling, that is, models predicting the output of models.
I think we are done now.
Next week, I will explain you why astrology isn’t actually a real science.
“models predicting the output of models”
So succinct and yet so descriptive. Almost poetry.
More people would listen to me if I was an astrologer. And I wouldn’t have to be bothered with ” yeah but your not a climate scientist”. If proof is the gold standard of science, as an astrologer, I would have had at least one prediction correct. Which would make me 100% more accurate than a climate scientist.
Of course the reliability of breaking bones to see which way they crack is also well known. And require no adjustment of data or even recording data. Totally irrelevant, much like current climate science. It is what we say it is.
Next week, I will explain you why astrology isn’t actually a real science.
==============
Long before humans understood the cause of the seasons they learned to successfully predict then using astrology. Astrology does a very good job of predicting the tides.
In point of fact, to this day we cannot predict the tides from first principles, due to the chaotic nature of the tides. However, astrology allows us to successfully predict a chaotic system with great accuracy.
Folks make fun of Astrology because of how it has been misused, which has given it a bad name. That should serve as a warning to Science, which is currently being misused. A good name is hard to get, but easy to lose.
By allowing science to be used for purposes it cannot serve, Science risks the fate of Astrology. Something people laugh at and don’t take seriously.
“to this day we cannot predict the tides from first principles”
source?
I was under the belief that tides were correctly modeled based on simple mecanics!
Global cooling is PROOF of Glo.Bull Warming !! That’s liberal logic for ya !
Even if it is true that global warming increases the intensity and frequency of heat waves, droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, and blizzards – if the policy implication is that we must reduce fossil fuel emissions it must be shown that the rate of emissions is related to the rate of warming.
The correlation does not exist.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2662870
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2642639
Jamal, time for a new video !!!
Onward and upwards!
But most people don’t understand what R and p mean.
Remember: if you can’t explain it to a child, you don’t get it.
That’s why people believe in (unproven) vaccines.
Suggest that, if an electric bar radiator is raising the temperature of an object to 350K, then, if there were sixteen such radiators and we add all the flux, Stefan Boltzmann calculations would give a temperature of 700K. Ask if they think that would happen. Assuming “no”
You’ve defined the scenario in a vague manner, but if your intent is that the object receives 16 times the energy flux due to there being 16 radiators, then the answer is “yes”.
then the answer is “yes”.
=================
1 million radiators at 350K cannot on their own raise the temperature of an object to 700k. the very best they could hope for is to bring the object to 350k.
which suggests that there is a huge problem with energy budgets that simply add watts/m^2 without taking into account the temperature of each object.
so why have there been no papers from physicists showing the obvious problem in assuming that you can simply add watts/m^2 between objects of different temperature?
ferd berple
1 million radiators at 350K
That is not how he defined the thought experiment. He posited a flux sufficient to raise temperature to 350K, and then posited the existence of 16 such energy fluxes. Do the SB Law calc and you get pretty much exactly 700 degrees.
so why have there been no papers from physicists showing the obvious problem in assuming that you can simply add watts/m^2 between objects of different temperature?
Because you can. The photons do not know what temperature they were emitted at. I suggest starting with these:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/07/visualizing-the-greenhouse-effect-light-and-heat/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/29/visualizing-the-greenhouse-effect-molecules-and-photons/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/02/28/visualizing-the-greenhouse-effect-atmospheric-windows/
The photons do not know what temperature they were emitted at
========================
that is a nonsense argument. their “knowledge” has no effect on temperature.
photon wavelength is a function of the temperature of the radiating body. the energy of each photon is a function of its wavelength. the colder the radiating body, the less energetic the maximum photon emitted.
if you place an object within a sphere, and the walls of the sphere are radiating at 350k, the object within the sphere will be 350k. because the max energy of each photon emitted is limited by 350k.
all photons are not identical, which is why you cannot blindly add watts/m^2. a flux of UV photons is not the same as a flux of IR photons, even though the average energy of the flux is identical. thus you cannot blindly add the energy from either flux and expect the same result.
Atmospheric physicist. I am having a bit of trouble understanding what it is you are claiming.
1) Is it your contention that a planet will have the same surface temperature with and without an atmosphere?
2) Assuming no, then is it your contention that it makes no difference what the composition of that atmosphere is?
It has been calculated that a body with the same reflectivity and the same distance from the sun would have a surface temperature of -18°C. Even a thermally conductive black body would have a temperature of 5.3°C. Do you disagree with these figures? How do you account for the actual temperature of around 15°C
a surface temperature of -18°C. … How do you account for the actual temperature of around 15°C
==================
the difference is a result of the lapse rate. -18C is for a planet without an atmosphere. the center of mass of the troposphere is about 5k, and the effective lapse rate about 6.5C. multiply these and you get 32.5C. The difference between -18C and 15C is 33C. Thus, the so called GHG effect is due to tropospheric convection, not radiation.
Ferdberple, please bear with me on this as I am having difficulty understanding the mechanism you propose. Without an atmosphere the surface would be -18°C (assuming black body). We now add an atmosphere that does not absorb any radiation. At the bottom the atmosphere would warm to -18°C and would get colder as we raise the altidude. I do not see how we end up with a temperature above -18°C. Can you explain?
an atmosphere that does not absorb any radiation
================
there is no such atmosphere, but in any case. what is different about radiation? is it not equivalent to conduction at a distance? we understand that a 0C object cannot heat an object beyond 0C by conduction, but we cannot fathom the same restriction for radiation.
as a result of conduction, in the absence of convection, the atmosphere will be at the same temperature as the surface. it will be isothermal.
but consider this. your -18C planet is not -18C everywhere. It is colder at the poles than the equator. This sets in motion a convection on a planetary scale, not simply vertically as we see in our minds.
and this convection create a thermal gradient due to gravity and the conversion between KE and PE. this gradient makes the atmosphere warmer lower down that it would be otherwise, and cooler at altitude than it would be otherwise.
and it is this gradient that warms the surface above what it would be otherwise. however, this warming is not uniform. it takes place towards the poles when the air is descending, which increases the average temperature of the planet above what it would be otherwise. the energy for this warming comes from the upper atmosphere, which is cooling than it would be in the absence of convection.
but in any case. what is different about radiation? is it not equivalent to conduction at a distance?
No! is is absolutely NOT equivalent to conduction at a distance. Your entire treatment of this problem seems to be predicated on that fundamental misunderstanding
That’s it, I am buying 16 radiators and renting a gymnasium!
Where is my grant?
NOT equivalent to conduction at a distance
=====================
how can you tell?
for example, take two objects suspended in a vacuum, such as parallel flat plates. the objects have different temperatures. place a thermometer on each object. place a barrier between you and the objects such that you cannot see if they are touching, but you can see both thermometers.
There will be an energy flow between the objects, either due to conduction or radiation. This will be evidenced by the reading of the thermometers. Except for the speed at which both objects reach the same temperature, what difference will you see in the value of the thermometers that will tell you if this flow is due to conduction or radiation?
NOT equivalent to conduction at a distance
=====================
another way of thinking of this is that radiation is simply conduction at a distance using photons as the force carrier. When CO2 absorbs radiation for example, it might reradiate this as a photon, but it might also lose this energy by conduction to an N2 or O2 molecule, warming the surrounding air.
Similarly, an N2 or O2 molecule may conduct energy to a CO2 molecule, and that CO2 molecule may radiate this to space, cooling the surrounding air. so the problem remains, in what way is the warming or cooling of a molecule by the abortion or emission of radiation different than the warming or cooling of a molecule by conduction?
As was advanced earlier, the molecule has no memory of how it was warmed or cooled. So the effects must be identical.
note: by warming/cooling of a molecule I’m referring to KE. Assuming PE changes to be negligible.
ferd,
You’re defining experiments in which the end state is the same, and so concluding that since the end states are the same, there’s no difference between the mechanisms that got them there. You are confusing the destination with the road.
ferd berple
the difference is a result of the lapse rate.
Increasing GHG concentration raises the MRL. Now, from this new higher altitude MRL, follow the lapse rate back down to the surface, and presto, higher surface temperature.
Menicholas January 25, 2016 at 2:00 pm
That’s it, I am buying 16 radiators and renting a gymnasium!
Where is my grant?
Why bother? And why only 16? Let’s go with a few hundred radiated energy sources, each lower than the boiling point of water, and see if they can add together to heat up a huge tank of water to boiling. Here’s my apparatus, each mirror supplying a beam of radiated energy:
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20140212006613/en/World%E2%80%99s-Largest-Solar-Thermal-Power-Project-Ivanpah
Darn thing works too. Not very cost effective, but that isn’t the point.
sigh, link goes to the article instead of the picture. 3rd from the left.
http://www.addletters.com/pictures/bart-simpson-generator/bart-simpson-generator.php?line=I+will+not+laugh+when+someone+mentions+Glo.Bull+Warming+%21
Looking at major US blizzards like those of 1889, 1899, 1922, 1978, 1993, it’s pretty clear that none of them had a common first name like “Jonas”. (“Knickerbocker” is not a proper first name!)
I’d also add that none of them had dates which started with the digit “2”. And while 1888 occurred after unseasonably warm weather, Jonas has come after unseasonably warm climate.
Get it?
I would be neat if other weather forecasting organizations assigned a different name to the storms, than the Weather Channel has. Here in Colorado Springs, we had a light dusting of snow this evening, If the Weather Channel got hold of it, they would have a news release, “‘Colorado Springs’ is being slammed with a dangerous dusting of snow from Winter Storm Powderpuff.”
none of them had dates which started with the digit “2”.
===================
Benford’s Law states that 1 will be the most common leading digit in a natural series. If your tax returns don’t follow this rule, expect an audit.
Skeptics of modern climate exceptionalism can expect an audit from Bomber Barry.
The article is written by a sharp tongued young woman named Katie Herzog.
Did I mention that she is sharp tongued and her first name is Katie?
You don’t suppose….
…Oh No !!!!
What the heck happened to Caitiecaitie…did she get banned? Discovered to be already banned?
Wondering.
I only came across those threads she comment bombed after everyone had left the conversation.
Mods.?
I am rather suspicious that caitiecaitie was/is an experiment of some sort that we have not heard the last of.
davidhoffer,
I agree, and I’m suspicious too. She (?) wasn’t banned. But she was surely an obnoxious site pest and maybe should have been.
She (?) wasn’t banned. But she was surely an obnoxious site pest and maybe should have been.
Would prefer that she not be banned, engaging with people like her is an important test to determine if our convictions stand up to scrutiny and open debate.
The problem with a thread bomber like her is that before the advent of nesting, debating people like here was easily done. With content appearing all over the thread, it takes considerably more effort to keep track of new content and respond effectively. Makes it impossible in fact, something she/he/it/them seemed to know and be taking advantage of.
CC could have been a computer,there has been research about using them in customer call centres.
Here is an early example of a computer generated story of a Baseball game.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=122424166
I was a denizen of Manhattan in 1996 during the below linked snowstorm.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_blizzard_of_1996
Nothing moved for a day and a half, but somehow we didn’t demonizes the snowstorm.
We had a relatively blissful blizzard, even though I got stuck on 3rd Avenue below 34 Street in the middle of street for a whole day without being towed or ticketed. I just left it there.
I get the climate v weather idea but I’m still struggling with global v local temperature thingy. In the “hottest year ever” we had the coldest winter in 20 years here in Tasmania! Its difficult to keep the global faith while the southern ocean is cooling, sea ice and ice shelves are increasing! Shouldn’t this average out or is it really, really hot* everywhere else? 😉 /sarc (50%)
*And hence warming on average.
Scott, in order to understand it, you must understand words like “adjustments”, “homogenization”, and “canvas buckets”, plus have no idea what satellite temperature data is, no idea of Earth history, have forgotten you ever saw an ice core graph you used to love but found out you really hate, have mixed up the effect of what is known as the “urban heat island” (UHI) by exactly 180 degrees, think you can measure temps to one one hundredths of a degree with a thermometer marked with one degree graduations, and a whole bunch of other smart sciency stuff like that there.
Menicholas, thanks, I get it now! First forget everything you know or thought you knew! 😉
It’s too complicated for anybody who is not a peer reviewed climate scientist to understand. If they have to explain it to you, you won’t understand it. So just believe that I can return you 10% year over year on your money… I mean climate… climate…
Hang on!! I just stumbled across the Bureau of Meteorology report and I was in error! The “hottest year ever” – 2015 – was the coldest winter in 50 years here!! I happily stand corrected!
And it was also DRIER:
Q. E. F-ing, D. 😉
They take a lot of numbers from all over the place, average, adjust, and just plain make some up…. then put out a press release.
It’s about as scientific as declaring the Martians are about to land on the Moon.
@ur momisugly AndyJ, 6:15 am Jan 25,”It’s about as scientific as declaring the Martians are about to land on the Moon.”
Andy sorry but you are sooo behind the times, they have had a base on the “backside” for at least a thousand years, They had to move it there after somebody on earth invented a telescope.
Doug, is that you?
Good to see you are still sneaking past the censors. Keep changing them E Mail addresses and keep hammering home the truth!
I still believe I am correct on KE being equal or greater at the top of the atmosphere than at the bottom of it.
Ah, ha! I thought so, but wasn’t sure enough… . He kept himself from mentioning his book! GO AWAY, DOUG C0TT0N!
KE being equal or greater at the top of the atmosphere than at the bottom of it
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Average KE is the same at the top and bottom of a non-convecting atmosphere, resulting in an isothermal atmosphere. In a convecting atmosphere KE is greater at the surface and less at altitude, resulting in a lapse rate. The change in KE is balanced by the change in PE.
Overall the convecting atmosphere has the same average temperature as the non-convecting atmosphere. What is different is the variance.