From NASA Goddard and JPL:
NASA studying 2015 El Niño event as never before
Every two to seven years, an unusually warm pool of water — sometimes two to three degrees Celsius higher than normal develops across the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean to create a natural short-term climate change event. This warm condition, known as El Niño, affects the local aquatic environment, but also spurs extreme weather patterns around the world, from flooding in California to droughts in Australia. This winter, the 2015-16 El Niño event will be better observed from space than any previous El Niño.
This year’s El Niño is already strong and appears likely to equal the event of 1997-98, the strongest El Niño on record, according to the World Meteorological Organization. All 19 of NASA’s current orbiting Earth-observing missions were launched after 1997. In the past two decades, NASA has made tremendous progress in gathering and analyzing data that help researchers understand more about the mechanics and global impacts of El Niño.
El Niño is a fascinating phenomenon because it has such far-reaching and diverse impacts. The fact that fires in Indonesia are linked with circulation patterns that influence rainfall over the United States shows how complex and interconnected the Earth system is, said Lesley Ott, research meteorologist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland.
Using NASA satellite observations in tandem with supercomputer processing power for modeling systems, scientists have a comprehensive suite of tools to analyze El Niño events and their global impacts as never before. Throughout this winter, NASA will share the latest scientific insights and imagery updates related to El Niño.
For instance, scientists are learning how El Niño affects the year-to-year variability for fire seasons in the western United States, Amazon and Indonesia. El Niño may also affect the yearly variability of the ground-level pollutant ozone that severely affects human health. Researchers will be keenly focused on how the current El Niño will affect the drought in California.
We still have a lot to learn about these connections, and NASA’s suite of satellites will help us understand these processes in a new and deeper way, said Ott.
Many NASA satellites observe environmental factors that are associated with El Niño evolution and its impacts, including sea surface temperature, sea surface height, surface currents, atmospheric winds and ocean color. The joint NASA/NOAA/CNES/EUMETSAT Jason-2 satellite measures sea surface height, which is especially useful in quantifying the heat stored and released by the oceans during El Niño years.
NASA satellites also help scientists see the global impact of El Niño. The warmer than normal eastern Pacific Ocean has far-reaching effects worldwide. These events spur disasters like fires and floods. They change storm tracks, cloud cover and other weather patterns, and they have devastating effects on fisheries and other industries.
NASA’s Earth-observing satellites help monitor those and other impacts by measuring land and ocean conditions that both influence and are affected by El Niño. For instance, NASA’s Global Precipitation Measurement Mission provides worldwide precipitation measurements every three hours. NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive mission measures soil moisture in the top layer of land. Both of these satellites are useful for monitoring drought, improving flood warnings and watching crop and fishing industries.
NASA is at the forefront in providing key observations of El Niño and advancing our understanding of its role in shaping Earth’s weather and climate patterns, said Duane Waliser, chief scientist of the Earth Science and Technology Directorate at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.
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We have just come through solar cycle#24 which peaked around the end of 2014, and cycle#24 is now well into decline. El Ninos typically follow solar peaks and minimums. The strength or weakness of the solar cycle just before a max or min determines the strength or weakness of the subsequent El Nino. We have just come through a weak cycle – logical outcome: a weak El Nino. Weak El Ninos at peaks or troughs of weak solar cycles have been 1976-78 and 2006-7. Strong El Ninos that followed relatively steep solar cycles were 1957-58, 1965-66, 1982-83, and 1997-98. El Ninos reduce cyclones. Therefore a weak El Nino will tend to inhibit the number and intensity of cyclones, so although we will still get some this season they may not be too destructive. El Ninos delay or weaken monsoons therefore the next wet season could be relatively weak, bringing more heat to the Interior.
Seems like a testable prediction. We shall soon see.
No, they do not. Here are El Nino periods in both FFT and wavelet analysis in reference (1).
Solar peaks and minimums aren’t on the same cycle at all. 11 years != 3-5 years except when they happen to overlap. Since there’s only about 12 solar cycles in the temperature record pretty much all of them have to line up to get your 95% confidence. The don’t all line up, so time to go chase some other random correlation…
The only signal visible above the noise floor in the temperature record is the ENSO signal and the yearly cycle. So if you find a correlation between temperature and anything else, it’s just random luck.
Peter
(1) https://www.dropbox.com/s/lw1kzdfjw0ifcdo/10.1.1.28.1738.pdf?dl=0
Sorry, not any time soon.
If you want to make a statement that “80% of the time random event X is followed by event Y”, you need to at least consider it’s a binomial distribution (which could be optimistic), i.e. event Y either happens or doesn’t happen, and the hypothesis is 80% of the time it does happen.
For a binomial distribution you need 17 events all of which must be true to make that statement at 95% confidence interval. 17*11 = 187 years. We only have 130 years of temperature record. So “soon” is in at least 50 years…
Since it’s not 100% of the time with existing data, you need even more data to get up to that 80%. For example, if there are 3 cycles that don’t follow the hypothesis, then you need to get 34 out of 37 cycles to get a 95% confidence that the cycles line up 80% of the time. Let’s talk in the year 2280ish.
Given that ENSO is 3-5 years and the solar cycle is 11 years, the expect probability of “x followed by y” is greater than 0, so the 80% of the time is a minimal expectation for a hypothesis.
It’s really scary how much data you need to satisfy confidence intervals, prove that some change isn’t random, and satisfy Nyquist. I continually find in climate science that’s there’s insufficient data for everyone’s hypothesis – both “it’s the sun” hypothesis and “it’s the C02” hypothesis.
Peter
http://www.danielsoper.com/statcalc3/calc.aspx?id=85
Oceanic climate events are mainly driven by solar activity and tides (27 and 28 day approximate periodicity), but do not expect them to line up when data is presented using the Earth’s orbital clock (day, year) or the artificial clock ranging form of 28, 30 & 31 days. Electronic design engineers clearly understand the problem.
Peter.
Yes.
There is – despite the ad-band mantra ‘the science is settled’ – a lot we do not know.
Some we might think we have a handle on.
Some things are grasping at straws.
And some is, bluntly, carp. At best.
Peter- many thanks.
Auto
“Seems like a testable prediction.”
I don’t think so, when I read a statement like this:
“All 19 of NASA’s current orbiting Earth-observing missions were launched after 1997. In the past two decades, NASA has made tremendous progress in gathering and analyzing data that help researchers understand more about the mechanics and global impacts of El Niño.”
My forecast: El Nino 2015 will be a source of interesting stories.
First time I’ve ever heard of such a connection. I’m rather skeptical :-). Tell us more.
What evidence do you base this on. Was a test for statistical significance done or is this claim made on the basis of eyeballing some graphs? Human beings have a great capacity for seeing patterns where none exist so I generally distrust results obtained by eyeballing graphs unless the results are very obvious. Also do you have a proposed mechanism?
You could be right, ken. As I understand it, El Nino’s are deemed to accompany a Southern Oscillation Index of -8 or less. The average for the last 3 days is about -5 after a series in the high negatives. It remains to be seen if that positive trend continues. If so, it’s yet another failed El Niño prediction of professional doomsters.
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/
1997-1998 El Nino activity happened along with or because of high solar activity, 2015 extremely low solar activity and the El Nino result ??? There is a quantitative difference here folks sooooo ???
Solar activity has not been especially low since we have just passed the peak of cycle 24.
The best I feel able to say is that across multiple solar cycles the balance between El Nino and La Nina will gradually change in favour of La Nina when solar activity is declining whereas that balance will gradually change in favour of El Nino when solar activity is increasing.
The interesting feature of the current strong El Nino will be the extent to which it affects average global surface temperatures.
At a time of less active sun and a cloudier Earth (as observed) this El Nino should have a smaller effect than did the El Nino of 1997/8 even if it is of much the same intensity.
kenmoonman,
It is not that simple. Ian Wilson seems to have the best track record in predicting these things;
Ian Wilson
July 23, 2015 at 8:53 pm
Pamela,
If this El Nino event ends up being very strong into the start of next year will you at least
consider the possibility that the semi-chaotic recharge/discharge model may have some failings.
I have proposed alternative externally driven hypothesis for the PDO and ENSO that have
produced two correct predictions so far:
Wilson, I.R.G., 2011, Are Changes in the Earth’s Rotation
Rate Externally Driven and Do They Affect Climate?
The General Science Journal, Dec 2011, 3811.
Prediction 1:
I predicted in 2008 (though the prediction was not emphasized until 2014) that the PDO would
turn positive sometime between the years 2015 and 2017. The PDO turned positive sometime in
late 2014 or early 2015. I made this prediction based upon two observations:
a) that since 1700 A.D., the deviation of the Earth’s LOD (Length-of-Day) from its long-term
increase of 1.7 milliseconds per century reaches a maximum whenever the asymmetry of the
Sun’s motion about the centre-of-mass of the solar system reaches a maximum.
b) that since 1700 A.D., every time the asymmetry of the Sun’s motion about the centre-of-mass
of the solar system has reached a maximum, the PDO (based upon proxy and instrumental data)
has turned positive 8 to 10 year after this maximum.
Since, the asymmetry of the Sun’s motion about the centre-of-mass of the solar system last
reached a maximum in 2007, my hypothesis would predict a switch to a positive PDO some
time between 2015 and 2017.
Prediction 2:
http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/evidence-that-strong-el-nino-events-
are_13.html
I predicted in late 2014 that a moderate to strong El Nino Event would occur in 2015. The
current El Nino Event reached moderate strength around May of this year.
I claim that that the timing of almost all of the moderate to strong El Nino events between 1865
and 2015 can be explained by the 31/62 year Perigee-Syzygy lunar tidal cycle. This particular
long-term tidal cycle synchronizes the slow precession of the lunar line-of-apse with the
Synodic cycle (i.e the Moon’s phases) and the seasons.
A detailed investigation of the precise alignments between the lunar synodic [lunar phase] cycle
and the 31/62 year Perigee-Syzygy cycle, over the time period considered, shows that it
naturally breaks up six 31 year periods each of which has a distinctly different tidal property:
Period 1- before 15th April 1870.
Period 2 – 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901
Period 3 – 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932
Period 4 – 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963
Period 5 – 23rd April 1963 to 25th April 1994
Period 6 – 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025
This six periods are further sub-divided into two distinct tidal epochs:
1. New Moon Epoch:
Period 1 – Prior to 15th April 1870
Period 3 – 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932
Period 5 – 23rd April 1963 to 25th April 1994
In this epoch, the peak seasonal tides that are dominated by new moons that are predominately
in the northern hemisphere.
2. Full Moon Epochs:
Epoch 2 – 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901
Epoch 4 – 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963
Epoch 6 – 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025
In this epoch, the peak seasonal tides that are dominated by full moons that are predominately
in the southern hemisphere.
My prediction of a moderate to strong El Nino in 2015 was based upon two observations from
historical El Nino data:
a) El Niño events in the Full Moon tidal epochs preferentially occur near times when the lunar
line-of-apse aligns with the Sun at the times of the Equinoxes.
b) El Niño events in the New Moon tidal epochs preferentially occur near times when the lunar
line-of-apse aligns with the Sun at the times of the Solstices.
Reply
* Ian Wilson
July 23, 2015 at 9:15 pm
Here is my ~ 9 year year cycle in each corresponding 31 year tidal epoch:
A. Full Moon Epochs
1st FULL MOON EPOCH [1870 to 1901]
1877-88 –> 1888-89 –> 1896-97 –> 1905-06 with 1899-1900 as a half cycle
2nd FULL MOON EPOCH [1932 to 1963]
1940-41 –> 1951-52 (weak) –> 1963-64 (weak) with 1957-58 as a half cycle
3rd FULL MOON EPOCH [1993-94 to 2024-25]
1997-98 –> 2006 –>. 2015-16 –> 2024-25 with 2019-20 as a possible half cycle.
B. New Moon Epochs
1st NEW MOON EPOCH [1901 to 1932]
1902-03 –> 1911-12 –> 1918-19 –> 1931-31 with 1925-26 as a half cycle
2nd NEW MOON EPOCH [1963 to 1993-94]
1965-66 –> 1972-73 –> 1982-83 –> 1991-92 with 1987-88 as a half cycle.
* Ian Wilson
July 23, 2015 at 9:25 pm
It is built upon a simple alignment pattern between the lunar-line-of-apse, the lunar
synodic cycle and the seasons, such that:
9 years + 9 years + 9 years + 4 year (slippage) = 31 years represents half of a full cycle
of 62 years.
>>31/62 year Perigee-Syzygy cycle
Is this in phase with the 60-year PDO cycle at all?
P.S. Can you get rid of all those line-returns before posting, it makes your post almost unreadable. In a word processor, just do a search for the line-return characters and replace all of them with a space. Your posts will be much more readable.
R
… astrology?
Yes Ian Wilson has predicted El Nino the best by far based on lunar alignment patterns.
Thanks Ed for posting my hypothesis. If you want a clearer description of my hypothesis please go to:
http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/evidence-that-strong-el-nino-events-are_13.html
No Ian H, my hypothesis is based upon observations that indicate that the timing of onset of El Nino events can be explained by a plausible underlying physical mechanism.
1. There is unequivocal evidence that luni/solar induced atmospheric tides are present at altitudes above about 3000 m.
References:
Li G. 27.3-day and 13.6-day atmospheric tide and lunar forcing on atmospheric circulation. Adv Atmos Sci 2005; 22(3): 359-74.
Li G, Zong H. 27.3-day and 13.6-day atmospheric tide. Sci China (D) 2007; 50(9): 1380-95.
Li G, Zong H, Zhang Q. 27.3-day and average 13.6-day periodic oscillations in the earth’s rotation rate and atmospheric pressure fields due to celestial gravitation forcing. Adv Atmos Sci 2011; 28(1): 45-58.
Krahenbuhl DS, Pace MB, Cerveny RS, Balling Jr RC. Monthly lunar declination extremes’ influence on tropospheric circulation patterns. J Geophys Res 2011; 116: D23121- 6.
I show in my 2012 paper – [Wilson, I.R.G., Lunar Tides and the Long-Term Variation of the Peak Latitude Anomaly of the Summer Sub-Tropical High Pressure Ridge over Eastern Australia The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2012, 6, 49-60] that if you control for the changes in mean (atmospheric) sea-level pressure (MSLP) caused by the seasons, then it possible to see the much smaller long term changes in MSLP cause by the luni-solar tides.
2. I show in my 2013 paper – [Wilson, I.R.G., Long-Term Lunar Atmospheric Tides in the Southern Hemisphere, The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2013, 7, 51-76] that lunar atmospheric tides can produce small but significant long term changes in the overall pressure of the four main semi-permanent sub-tropical high pressures systems in the Southern Hemisphere. The paper shows that an N=4 standing wave-like pattern in the MSLP circumnavigates the Southern Hemisphere once every every 18.6 years. This standing wave will naturally produce large extended regions of abnormal atmospheric pressure passing over the semi-permanent South Pacific subtropical high roughly once every ~ 4.5 years. These moving regions of higher/lower than normal atmospheric pressure will increase/decrease the MSLP of this semi-permanent high pressure system, temporarily increasing/reducing the strength of the East-Pacific trade winds. This may led to conditions that preferentially favor the onset of La Nina/El Nino events.
3. I show in great detail in the blog posts at the top of this post that:
El Niño events in the New Moon epochs preferentially occur near times when the lunar line-of-apse aligns with the Sun at the times of the Solstices.
El Niño events in the Full Moon epochs preferentially occur near times when the lunar line-of-apse aligns with the Sun at the times of the Equinoxes.
and these simple rules explain the onset years for all but five of the 27 moderate to strong El nino events that have occurred since 1865-70 when directly measured world-wide sea-surface temperatures have become available.
So you see it has little to do with astrology.
And of course, what I have proposed has, in large part, been already proposed by Russian climatologist Nikolay Sidorenkov, and backed up (in one way or other) by many other researchers including Rog Tallbloke, Chefio, Clive Best, Paul Pukite (aka WHT)… etc.
“El Ninos typically follow solar peaks and minimums.”
El Nino’s typically complete after solar peaks during the lowest 50% sun spots.
http://i772.photobucket.com/albums/yy8/SciMattG/SunSpots_v_NINO3.4Minrem_zpsjazoxqcs.png
Why does the El Nino 1997/98 keep global temperatures up?
http://i772.photobucket.com/albums/yy8/SciMattG/RSS%20Global_v1997-01removal_zpszk83g0xi.png
It didn’t keep them up, but slowed the cooling down because the data sets below did show this energy was slowly escaping from the sudden step up.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2001/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2001/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:2001/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:2001/trend/plot/rss/from:2001/to:2014.5/trend/plot/uah/from:2001/to:2010/trend
Global temperatures were cooling after the El Nino, but were only slowly cooling years after. If no moderate/strong El Ninos had occurred recently this trend would had continued until back to levels before 1997/98 El Nino. This scientific evidence shows with link below why El Ninos take many years to lose energy once released, not just around the event itself.
There is currently 85.7% chance an El Nino will complete after solar maximum once at least 50% reduced. That percentage is too high to suggest random behavior. Only time observed El Ninos completed during solar maximum were when the planet was originally cooling significantly. Why the change in behavior between then and the warming period after I don’t know yet?
Why has an strong El Nino never completed during maximum yet?
This reasoning would be because the energy has not built up enough yet in the Tropical ocean upper 300 m to be able to produce one. When one occurs during this period energy is lost to the atmosphere prematurely from the ocean upper 300 m, before it gets chance to build up into a strong El Nino from solar maximum.
Finally the data may not be long enough, but it covers a full PDO cycle that is significant for the ENSO behavior.
“The fact that fires in Indonesia are linked with circulation patterns that influence rainfall over the United States shows how complex and interconnected the Earth system is, said Lesley Ott, research meteorologist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland.”
Yet, we know with certainty that CO2 is the temperature control knob.
I don’t understand. The visualizations atop this post (1997 and 2015) appear quite different.
What am I missing?
Ditto. I don’t see the connection either.
I thought the same thing. Left frame shows a negative sea surface height anomaly, while the right frame shows the opposite. Perhaps he meant to snip the sea surface ‘temperature’ plots showing (presumably) similar high temps, then and now?
There’s more red on the righthand one, that’s all that matters.
What matters is that 1997 and 2015 are setup years. If the el Nino has yet to develop full potential, the start point is a lot warmer now than it was then. If so, could be a severe one, negative PDo notwithstanding.
Nope, sea level anomally is depicted. Try …
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Tropics/figt5.gif
What matters is whether the lower strat temperature steps down again, which doesn’t seem likely.
The caption says the two were animations, so we’re looking at just the beginning frames. We’ll have to search around to find the whole thing.
Here is another animation:
http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/elnino2015/1997vs2015-animated.gif
Hi NeedleFactory and others. The image above is 10-months out of date. Try this one:
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/images/largesize/PIA20009_hires.jpg
From the webpage here:
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=4740
I suspect the image at the top of this post is the first cell in the animation here:
http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/archive/PIA20009_1997vs2015-animated.gif
Cheers.
Thanks for the link, Bob.
Bob, If you look carefully at the last animation you will see that there are at least three distinct pulses of ocean water (driven by atmospheric Kelvin waves?) that propagate along the Equator from west to east prior to the peak in the El Nino in late 1997. The same is true for the current 2015 El Nino event. These pulses take about 40 – 45 days to propagate across the 20,000 kilometers of ocean which gives a speed of about 6-7 m/sec. This is within a factor of 2 of the measured speed of 15 m/sec for the atmospheric kelvin waves that are launched across the Pacific oceans by Madden Julian Oscillations that penetrate into the Western-Pacific ocean.
Interestingly, the sub-lunar point of the Moon on the Earth’s surface propagates at a speed of roughly 16 – 17 m/sec along the ecliptic. This translates into a mean longitudinal speed (in a west-east direction) of ~ 16 m/sec which is not far off the 15 m/sec of the Kelvin waves.
Any thoughts?
Seeing the forest through the trees. Keep your eyes on the ball folks. How does CO2 cause regional pattern of warmth in the oceans? It doesn’t. How does CO2 cause an El Nino? It doesn’t. How does CO2 warm the oceans? It doesn’t. Clearly no one disagrees that the oceans and El Nino’s warm the atmosphere. If CO2 isn’t the cause something else must me causing the global warming. Here is a hint, what warms the oceans? Most likely what is warming the oceans, the hypothalamus of the earth and atmosphere, is also causing the atmosphere to warm. What is causing the global warming is simply more visible light reaching the oceans. You warm the oceans, you warm the atmosphere, it is that simple. Remove all the CO2 in the atmopsphere and the oceans will still warm.
Does anybody else find it humorous that we have all kinds of guys in lab coats running around claiming authority on a climate phenomena that was named by uneducated Latin American fishermen after years and years of very close observation about the cyclic nature and locations of catch yields and species abundance in the Pacific.
It would show more foresight if they can around in raincoats 🙂
Correction:
It would show more foresight if they ran around in raincoats 🙂
Or ran around in Cane boats
Their lives depended on it , the lives of the guys in the lab coats depend on the taxpayers$$.
More interestingly, the fishermen were using the anchovy catch as an indicator poor catch was El Nino. This year’s catch was very good so under the anchovy metric there is no El Nino. This may mean that all the attempts to go back in history to quantify fishing catches are mistaken as they are a particularly poor proxy for El Ninos.
The way I understood it “El Nino” was a good thing for the fishermen. “The Child” reference was to the baby Jesus at least that’s the way it was explained by one of my favorite TV Meteorologists 45 years ago. Meant heavy rain for California.
You overlook the possibility that their fishing technique has improved or been adapted dramatically.
ENSO and the anchovy
May 11, 2015
http://judithcurry.com/2015/05/11/enso-and-the-anchovy/
If it happens every 2-7 years how can it be “unusually warm”?
By being on a relatively high plateau, even the pause is unusually warm.
Relatively high plateau with respect too….. what????
Its not on a high plateau, its on a small bump.
We are still only just above the coldest period in the last 10,000 years.
Relatively high compared with the overall instrumental record. Therefore any little bump has an increased chance of setting a “record”.
One positive legacy of the AGW hype is that much much more funding and interest has been created in understanding our climate and weather systems.
All the “funding and interest” in the world will not lead to “understanding” when the issue is so poisoned by dogma and political bias.
Yes, it is difficult to see how an army of people, who are engaged in actively obfuscating what has and is actually occurring rather than trying to understand it objectively, will lead to an understanding of anything, except maybe how easily people can be just plain wrong, or how money can corrupt just about anyone.
Nineteen satellite missions, a mountain of data and a pea sized amount of understanding. Sad isn’t it?
There is no such thing as AGW. Something that does not exist in fact cannot leave a legacy.
He said AGW “hype” left a legacy, not AGW itself. Read three times, “Post” once.
“One positive legacy of the AGW hype is that much much more funding and interest has been created in understanding our climate and weather systems.”
Not at all. The resources spent on this today are resources that are not employed to increase prosperity that could be used spend much more when we can have reliable knowledge and results from it.
Imagine that taxes were much higher in industrial revolution – stifling it – and aether was to be political established as settled science. Will it help appear an earlier Einstein or instead poison science against the historical one stifle his discoveries while spending millions of prosperity in a drive against a wall?
Interesting that the sea height anomalies appear so much more pronounced during this El Nino than in the big one during 1997-8. The sea temperature anomalies appear much less than in 1997-8.
(The data is graphically available here, although hiding behind a paywall: )
http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-daleo/el-nino-continues-to-impress-but-trail-1997—weekly-update
Or maybe the data is wrong or has large margins of error … or has been adjusted by NASA. Before you start analyzing the data you better know the quality of the data. And if the source of the data is known for less than honest treatment of other data …
My brain shut down when I got to – “NASA satellite observations in tandem with supercomputer processing power for modeling systems, scientists…”
That’s enough for me…..
Maybe they should try looking out the window or even going outside occasionally 😉
I predict next year’s weather will be a mix of hot, cold, wet, dry, windy, calm, bright, dull…. conditions…. much the same as before…
rico,
I agree as soon as I saw supercomputing power I thought f how bad the models have performed.
Exactly…why believe them at all…they have never been correct yet!
Hey, I installed part of the massively distributed cluster processing system in the Forecast Simulation Lab in Boulder, CO. But, still GIGO.
“Using NASA satellite observations in tandem with supercomputer processing power for modeling systems,….” BSCON ORANGE.
“Maybe they should try looking out the window or even going outside occasionally”
Good luck getting funded for that…
My fellow Paul: In Climate Science, one makes one’s own luck by changing Grant Request to-“The Effect of Climate Change on My Yard”. Funded!
I’ll enjoy seeing the trend line from one satellite data point as crunched by a computer model.
One thing people should be asking themselves is, “Why is the surface temp so much warmer now than in ’98”, if the El Niño the same.
2014 was a record.
2015 will be a record unless 1995 temps appear in the last three months, unlikely.
With the new El Niño, 2016 will be a new record says most people who know anything.
Three record years in a row.
Wake up rabbits.
Troll. [trimmed. .mod]
No recent records shown when removing adjustments that global temperatures have not shown, but humans ones have.
http://i772.photobucket.com/albums/yy8/SciMattG/GISS-corrected2_zpssymskhge.png
It takes lots of cooking to create such records. Accurate records do not show record warmth, but accurate records do not keep climate alarmists employed.
i couldn’t find any mention of “climate change” – the article sounds like it’s written by scientists – or maybe i’m missing something
Yes, you apparently missed the part where they came to their conclusions, not by data, but by “supercomputer processing power for modeling systems:.
See now?
“Using NASA satellite observations in tandem with supercomputer processing power for modeling systems, scientists have a comprehensive suite of tools to analyze El Niño events and their global impacts as never before.”
[…]
“We still have a lot to learn about these connections, and NASA’s suite of satellites will help us understand these processes in a new and deeper way, said Ott.”
What conclusions did they reach?
It will be interesting to compare the two. And we shall see if the following year follows the same path. I this a path to breaking the drought in California?
Is this a path to breaking the drought in California?
From what I have heard, if we get the same amt of water that was in the ’98 El Niño, it will not change the drought situation.
Simple math. The west coast needs more water. Lots more.
No, this in not a path, it is a “i this path”.
ALL WUWT — PROOFREAD!!
No more double postings.
“in not”?
@ur momisugly Ric Werme…+2
@ur momisugly Ric Werme…+10
Don’tcha love it when a pedant gets hoisted by his own pedant (sic).
The warm pools are collapsing. Region 3, Region 4 and 1/2 are all cooling at a significant rate. Region 3/4 should follow suit rather quickly. I am really not sure how this NASA prediction is even remotely close to reality. Heck, even the pacific blob has broken into three parts and has cooled by 0.77 deg C in just two weeks. The cold pools are enlarging rapidly and dropping major areas of the ocean by 2-3 deg C, which is killing the warm pool growth. I just dont see their model being anywhere near reality. (NASA likes to play with broken models)
Come to think of it, COP21 is on the horizon and this would compliment their doom and gloom predictions to allow the One World Government power mongering… The French Meteorologist that was suspended was a real kick to the groin for the Movement, they needed a boost… /sarc
In all reality, I think the NASA prediction was totally a calculated political move. The 20 deg below normal and 9 inches of snow all over the east coast was raining on Obama’s political agenda. The appeal to authority just rings out loud and clear from this prediction. Its kind of funny to see an Al Gore Happen to COP21 and Obama…
Interesting to see if another “McIntyre Miracle” will happen before COP21. Ought to happen in the next couple of weeks if it’s coming
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climatic_Research_Unit_email_controversy
I know nothing about ENSO which would allow me to predict anything. Reading the “official” ENSO reports leads me to think that the experts don’t know enough about ENSO to predict anything either. The reports tend to take the form of a statement of Pacific regional temperatures plus the majority of differing predictions of some models. I feel very cynical of the current predictions of a strong El Nino. My suspicion is that they just think it looks a bit like the last big one so far, so the models which have been tweaked to postdict the last big El Nino now naturally predict that this one will be similar. Bill H – you talk about the blob breaking up and the regions cooling. Can you supply some nice idiot-readable graphs or simple data that illustrates what you say? I’m interested to see if there’s data that supports my suspicion that the experts have got it wrong and that this year will not deliver a big El Nino.
It was still toasty warm surfing last week in WA. No hood, no gloves (water temperature about 57degF) The locals know you’re a kook when you show up with CA plates and wear gloves but no hood… that guy didn’t get any waves…
I’m going to go out there and bet I don’t have to wear gloves till December.
Peter
57 is “toasty warm”?
ROFL!
Between 50 and 60 degrees, a person is expected stay conscious for no longer than one or two hours,and to survive for between 1 and 6 hours.
In other words, water than cold will kill most people in the time it takes to watch a football game.
Peter 57°F is not toasty warm by any stretch of the imagination. I have to wait for my my swimming pool to drop to 57°F before I can winterise it. We stop when it is luke warm at 21°C 70°F. You must have blubber for insulation.
Off Cali it was sitiing atv 30°C. Now that is toasty, toasty warm 🙂
You cut a heroic figure Peter and I’m sure the guy with gloves was mighty impressed, but I would like to bet it will not be him who gets the damaged kidneys! Look after yourself
That is what I am seeing also. I missed my last forecast on the El Nino peak, which pretty much ended my thoughts on being able to forecast ENSO changes. Yet I had also correctly forecast at the beginning of this year that the Blob would start to break up from the end of July onward. This what is going to bring rain to Northern California, where it is most needed for building the snow pack. It even rained twice this September, which was a nice change from the previous 4 years. WeatherZone’s ssta map today shows a definite cooling in Region 3 for the first time in quite awhile.
“but I would like to bet it will not be him who gets the damaged kidneys! Look after yourself”
I know about cold water and surfer’s ear, but have never heard of kidney issues. Reference?
BTW, wetsuit tech has come a long way in 15 years I’ve been doing this. I can barely tell that my 4/3 O’Neill is on me, and when I go to the tropics I get a rash and tend to otherwise miss the protecting from bumps gashes that 4mm of rubber provides.
I’ll know the Blob is gone when I switch to a 5mm wetsuit.
Peter
Does anyone really trust anything from NASA or NOAA anymore ???
Not since they declared the reusable space shuttle would make spaceflight cheaper. About 40 years ago…
Or since they declared James “Boiling Oceans” Hansen to be a climate expert.
Or when they declared that their primary mission was Muslim outreach.
Wow, if only they had known about this in 2000, then they could have said:
“A weather pattern in 15 years time will be similar in magnitude to one 3 years ago”.
People would have spat their cornflakes all over the kitchen table in shock and horror. (sarc.)
You know what I think?
I think that we may be living in a period in which there is a slight warming trend.
Attribution, anyone?!!
(Hey, didn’t Karl et al. depress the last El Nino in the pause buster? Is that so that we can all freak out about the awesome terror of this one?)
+ 100
“People would have spat their cornflakes all over the kitchen table in shock and horror. ”
Milk out of the nose, too?
Because that hurts.
I mean, it really does sting.
Although it is generally considered uproariously funny to anyone else who witnesses it.
It burns, but not like a shot of tequila. For three days my sinuses were on fire.
This press release from NASA Goddard and JPL reads like, well, a sales brochure. Just a funny first impression. It seems to be setting expectations for a record El Nino rather high. Time will tell but I would hope those agencies will not have their reputations further tarnished with a resulting relatively weak El Nino. All of California would not mind a strong one at all. I remember 97/98!
The top graphics are misleading because the 97 Nino started later than this year in April 97 I think and peaked in the NH winter 97/98. A better comparison graphic would be more recent say August or Sept. The other thing you need to consider is the location of not only the warm anomalies, but more so the regions where SSTs are greater than say 28 deg C. They are very different this year compared to 97. The tropical convection will be focused on areas approx >28 deg C and this location will determine the influence on the mid latitude jet streams. There may be areas with impressive warm anomalies in the N Pacific from say 15 deg C normal SSTs to 20 deg C but this is not warm enough to make a significant change in convection (unless cold polar air moves over the region) and probably lies under a subtropical high pressure descent zone anyway. To summarise, this El Nino is very different to 97/98 in location so expect very different influence.
The jet stream patterns will likely be different as well.
“El Nino may also affect the yearly variability of the ground-level pollutant ozone that severely affects human health.”
I don’t know if El Ninos affect the levels of ozone, but it would appear that the severely affecting human health notion is not held by everyone.
http://www.junkscience.com/2015/09/30/lets-review-the-epa-lies-on-ozone-deaths-and-asthma/
So how many El NInos (or is it El Nini) happened during the corresponding time frame of the Eemian interglacial?
My understanding from a very long paper I read on the subject was that according to data from sea bed sediments it appeared that there were very persistent la nina conditions. Keep in mind that during a glacial period, the solar radiation at the equator doesn’t vary much from what it is during an interglacial. There is just a much more extreme difference between the tropics and the higher latitudes. This probably makes for more extreme weather and might result in the strengthening of the trade winds. I would imagine during glacial periods there would be some ferocious storms as there would be a much greater difference in temperatures when masses of cold air would come down out of the arctic region.
It may be they remain ice ages because the polar air does not move south much. Instead, it just sits there, and warm air from the tropics continually overruns it and causes the tremendous snows that allow two miles of ice to accumulate in such a span of time.
It is “Los Niños”
Khloe Kardashian’s butt controls the fate of the Earth and Lamar Odom’s Peepee including AWG of Lamar Odom’s Peepee re-awakening.
Ha ha
Khloe Kardashian’s butt controls the fate of the Earth and Lamar Odom’s Peepee including AWG of Lamar Odom’s Peepee re-awakening.
I long for the days olf when commenters routinely quoted the words of the person they were responding to, and comments like this one never saw the light of day.
Comments were better in the pre-Climategate days. OTOH, More people read and comment at WUWT now, so that offsets some of the juvenile comments.
Now they call weather “short term climate change”. Their madness is nearly complete.
But they do categorize “short term climate change” as “natural,” defining it as a temporary shift in “weather patterns.” Climate is an abstraction built from an aggregate of weather, so I don’t have a problem with that.
I give them credit for an article reporting on a high magnitude El Nino that doesn’t include any global warming propaganda.
Oh great. The Warmists will go nuts again.
Two different satellites, but here is a 97/15 surface height comparison http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/elnino2015/1997vs2015-animated.gif
The non anomaly SST’s alone look moderate. Could you tell if an El Nino was in progress by looking at http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst.gif ?
And what happened one year later in 1999?
http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/releases99/aug99/noaa99056.html
I live in a resort community near Mt. Baker (Washington State) and our economy has been hammered by a couple years of very bad skiing. I know this is unscientific as h*ll but I am keeping my fingers crossed for the 2017 season…
You may not need to wait that long.
Dear Dave H,
Please do not be afraid to write the word “HELL” (if indeed you meant to write “this is unscientific as hell”).
May I also suggest that you attract to your resort some people who are much better at the skiing.
I rather fancy that keeping your fingers crossed is just NOT going to do it.
Regards,
WL
“El Niño may also affect the yearly variability of the ground-level pollutant ozone that severely affects human health.”
Somebody is going to get alot of mileage out of tracking this correlation. They’ll have to be a reason … whose fault is it ? Can’t be a natural phenomenon, can it ? How often does the El Niño god get this angry ?
I am thinking closer to a 2009/2010 event.
Joe Bastardi’s with 9/10 also. His saturday summary covers this niño well
Stephen,
Do you mean “CFSV2 November Forecast: No Affection for…” on Oct 20? It looks interesting.
Is there an ungated summary, or are you looking at something different?
Stephen,
Apologies. I see the Saturday update here: http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-october-17-2015
Has anyone read Joe’s Oct 20 report about the El Nino model?