From Scripps Institution of Oceanography
![sioLogo-scale[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/siologo-scale1.png?quality=75)
Research Highlight: Arctic Sea Ice Loss Likely To Be Reversible
Scenarios of a sea ice tipping point leading to a permanently ice-free Arctic Ocean were based on oversimplified arguments
New research by Till Wagner and Ian Eisenman, scientists at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, resolves a long-running debate over irreversible Arctic sea ice loss.
Ever since the striking record minimum Arctic sea ice extent in 2007, the ominous scenario of a sea ice tipping point has been a fixture in the public debate surrounding man-made climate change and a contingency for which Arctic-bordering countries have prepared.
For decades, scientists have been concerned about such a point of no return, beyond which sea ice loss is irreversible. This concern was supported by mathematical models of the key physical processes (known as process models) that were believed to drive sea ice changes. The process models forecasted that increased global warming would push the Arctic into an unstoppable cascade of melting that ceases only when the ocean becomes ice-free.
Implications of a permanently ice-free Arctic for the environment and for national and economic security are significant, driving deep interest in predictive capabilities in the region.
Wagner and Eisenman’s research was co-funded by the Office of Naval Research (ONR) and by the National Science Foundation. It supports the goals of the Navy’s U.S. Arctic Roadmap, which calls for an assessment of changes in the Arctic Ocean to clarify the national security challenges for future naval operations as this strategic region becomes increasingly accessible.
“The Navy has broad interest in the evolution of the Arctic,” said the ONR’s Frank Herr. “Sea ice dynamics are a critical component of the changing environmental picture. Our physical models lack important details on the processes controlling ice formation and melting, thus ONR is conducting a series of experimental efforts on sea ice, open water processes, acoustics, and circulation.”
During the past several years, scientists using global climate models (GCMs) that are more complex than process models found sea ice loss in response to rising greenhouse gases in their computer simulations is actually reversible when greenhouse levels are reduced.
“It wasn’t clear whether the simpler process models were missing an essential element, or whether GCMs were getting something wrong,” said Wagner, the lead author of the study. “And as a result, it wasn’t clear whether or not a tipping point was a real threat.”
Wagner and Eisenman resolve this discrepancy in the study in an upcoming Journal of Climate article, “How Climate Model Complexity Influences Sea Ice Stability.”
They created a model that bridged the gap between the process models and the GCMs, and they used it to determine what caused sea ice tipping points to occur in some models but not in others.
“We found that two key physical processes, which were often overlooked in previous process models, were actually essential for accurately describing whether sea ice loss is reversible,” said Eisenman, a professor of climate dynamics at Scripps Oceanography. “One relates to how heat moves from the tropics to the poles and the other is associated with the seasonal cycle. None of the relevant previous process modeling studies had included both of these factors, which led them to spuriously identify a tipping point that did not correspond to the real world.”
“Our results show that the basis for a sea ice tipping point doesn’t hold up when these additional processes are considered,” said Wagner. “In other words, no tipping point is likely to devour what’s left of the Arctic summer sea ice. So if global warming does soon melt all the Arctic sea ice, at least we can expect to get it back if we somehow manage to cool the planet back down again.”
Source: Scripps Press Release
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Meanwhile…. Antarctica continues its extremely constructive record breaking sea ice build…… What do you suppose will happen to that if “we manage to cool the planet down”.
The tone is quite sickening. Its all “our” fault I’m sure.
As the planet gets colder, they notice the ice is growing at both poles! Wow. Absolute geniuses. Now if only they can say this, ‘Global warming isn’t happening, we are now in a long term cooling cycle’ and I will give them a cookie.
Unfortunately, they warmistas seem to have a congenital defect which prevents them from being able to concatenate those particular phonemes.
Well if you read the article carefully, you will see that it is just “models” all the way down, so no assurance that this time they are on the right track.
I mean haow can you miss a little item like heat coming up from the tropics in ocean currents ?
Who’da thunk that could ever happen ?
g
“Well if you read the article carefully, you will see that it is just “models” all the way down, so no assurance that this time they are on the right track==
Certainly more true considering the fact that all they needed to do was review existing peer reviewed research showing a large percentage of loss was due to ocean and wind currents.
They are not saying the planet is cooling. They are not even saying the ice will not melt away. They are simply suggesting that the process is reversible.
I’d be interested to hear what the “two new factors” they are including in their model are.
Caleb, the article contains at least a clue…”“How Climate Model Complexity Influences Sea Ice Stability.”
“We found that two key physical processes, which were often overlooked in previous process models, were actually essential for accurately describing whether sea ice loss is reversible,” said Eisenman, a professor of climate dynamics at Scripps Oceanography. “One relates to how heat moves from the tropics to the poles and the other is associated with the seasonal cycle. None of the relevant previous process modeling studies had included both of these factors, which led them to spuriously identify a tipping point that did not correspond to the real world.”
Of course it should not be shocking the models miss processes already articulated in peer reviewed journals, as when the title of the upcoming article, “How Climate Model Complexity Influences Sea Ice Stability.”; is bizarre, as if a scientists GIGO influences how the real world operates. I am fairly certain the world was equally round before the fact that some folk believed it to be flat Climate Models can not influence Sea Ice.
David A
“Caleb, the article contains at least a clue…”“How Climate Model Complexity Influences Sea Ice Stability.””
I doubt the models or their complexity have any influence over sea ice at all, let alone it’s stability or its reversibility. Even a good model of reality has no direct influence over the reality it represents.
whatever is happening, it is for sure worse than we thought. no matter how bad we imagined it might be, it is so much worse. infinitely worse and then some.
Yes, worse than ever, as usual.
http://www.clarewind.org.uk/events-1.php?event=35
Is a succinct summary of warmism and the worsest thing there ever was,
“We’ll all be rooned, said Hanrahan”
@David A
Dream on. Nearly all peer-reviewed papers confirm, support, or conclude AGW. And the acceleration of sea level rise is repeatedly confirmed, most recently in a paper by Skakun that showed earlier pre-industrial estimates of sea level rise were overstated, so the rate of rise seen today is even more an acceleration than previously thought.
The papers you list are mostly regional studies, not global. They don’t count.
The Science says it is our ‘fault’. Only a few non scientists say it isn’t. Who to believe…..?
Not sure if sarcastic or retarded
The migrating birds here in Brampton, Ontario, Canada don’t believe it’s our fault.
Scheduled to arrive/pass through May 1/2 as they always do.
I believe in Empirical science research.
@clipe.
Not according to National Geographic: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/03/140331-global-warming-climate-change-ipcc-animals-science-environment/
@clipe : If you put your statements in all caps or add an exclamation you’re less likely to receive a rebuttal.
“Not sure if sarcastic or retarded”
What, [trimmed] cannot be sarcastic?
I love the way you actually believe that a handful of computer models is actually “science”.
You are so cute when you are making a fool of yourself.
Only a few eh Warren. The truth is many studies have detected small a deceleration (slowing) in the rate of SL rise.
Here are some papers which have reported the lack of acceleration in rate of sea level rise (h/t to Alberto Boretti, Robert Dean & Doug Lord):
1.Douglas B (1992). Global Sea Level Acceleration. J. Geophysical Research, Vol. 97, No. C8, pp. 12,699-12,706, 1992. doi:10.1029/92JC01133
2.Douglas B and Peltier W R (2002). The Puzzle of Global Sea-Level Rise. Physics Today 55(3):35-40.
3.Daly J (2003). Tasmanian Sea Levels: The ‘Isle of the Dead’ Revisited. [Internet].
4.Daly J (2004). Testing the Waters: A Report on Sea Levels for the Greening Earth Society. [Internet].
5.Jevrejeva S, et al (2006). Nonlinear trends and multiyear cycles in sea level records. J. Geophysical Research, 111, C09012, 2006. doi:10.1029/2005JC003229. (data)
6.Holgate SJ (2007). On the decadal rates of sea level change during the twentieth century. Geophysical Research Letters. 34, L01602.
7.Wunsch R, Ponte R and Heimbach P (2007). Decadal trends in sea level patterns: 1993-2004. Journal of Climatology. 5889-5911.
8.Woodworth P, et al (2009). Evidence for the accelerations of sea level on multi-decade and century timescales. International Journal of Climatology, Volume 29, Issue 6, pages 777-789, May 2009. doi:10.1002/joc.1771
9.You ZJ, Lord DB, and Watson PJ (2009). Estimation of Relative Mean Sea Level Rise From Fort Denison Tide Gauge Data. Proceedings of the 19th Australasian Coastal and Ocean Engineering Conference, Wellington, NZ, September 2009.
10.Wenzel M and Schröter J (2010). Reconstruction of regional mean sea level anomalies from tide gauges using neural networks. Journal of Geophysical Research – Oceans. 115:C08013.
11.Mörner N-A (2010a). Sea level changes in Bangladesh new observational facts. Energy and Environment. 21(3):235-249.
12.Mörner N-A (2010b). Some problems in the reconstruction of mean sea level and its changes with time. Quaternary International. 221(1-2):3-8.
13.Mörner N-A (2010c). There Is No Alarming Sea Level Rise! 21st Century Science & Technology. Fall 2010:7-17.
14.Houston JR and Dean RG (2011a). Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyses. Journal of Coastal Research. 27:409-417.
15.Houston JR and Dean RG (2011b). J. R. Houston and R. G. Dean (2011) Reply to: Rahmstorf, S. and Vermeer, M., 2011. Discussion of: Houston, J.R. and Dean, R.G., 2011. Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyses. Journal of Coastal Research. Volume 27, Issue 4: pp. 788-790. doi:10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-11A-00008.1
16.Watson PJ (2011). Is There Evidence Yet of Acceleration in Mean Sea Level Rise around Mainland Australia? Journal of Coastal Research. 27:368-377.
17.Modra B and Hesse S (2011), NSW Ocean Water Level. 21st NSW Coastal Conference. (or here)
18.Mörner N-A, (2011a). Setting the frames of expected future sea level changes by exploring past geological sea level records. Chapter 6 of book, D Easterbrook, Evidence-Based Climate Science, 2011 Elsevier B.V. ISBN: 978-0-12-385956-3.
19.Mörner N-A, (2011b). The Maldives: A measure of sea level changes and sea level ethics. Chapter 7 of book, D Easterbrook, Evidence-Based Climate Science, 2011 Elsevier B.V. ISBN: 978-0-12-385956-3.
20.Boretti A (2012a). Short Term Comparison of Climate Model Predictions and Satellite Altimeter Measurements of Sea Levels. Coastal Engineering, 60, pp. 319-322. doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2011.10.005. (Also, an article about this paper.)
21.Boretti A (2012b). Is there any support in the long term tide gauge data to the claims that parts of Sydney will be swamped by rising sea levels? Coastal Engineering, 64, pp. 161-167. doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2012.01.006
22.Hughes W (2012), Continued existence of Maori canals near Blenheim in New Zealand indicates a stable relative sea level over 200 years. [Internet].
23.Boretti A and Watson T (2012). The inconvenient truth: Ocean Levels are not accelerating in Australia. Energy & Environment. doi:10.1260/0958-305X.23.5.801
24.Burton D (2012). Comments on “Assessing future risk: quantifying the effects of sea level rise on storm surge risk for the southern shores of Long Island, New York,” by Shepard, et al. Natural Hazards. doi:10.1007/s11069-012-0159-8
25.Lüning S and Vahrenholt F (2012). Fallstudien aus aller Welt belegen: Keine Beschleunigung des Meeresspiegelanstiegs während der letzten 30 Jahre. (Case studies from around the world: no evidence of accelerating sea level rise over the last 30 years – English translation.)
26.Homewood P (2012). Is Sea Level Rise Accelerating? [Internet].
27.Schmith T, et al (2012), Statistical analysis of global surface temperature and sea level using cointegration methods. Journal of Climate, 2012, American Meteorological Society. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00598.1 (or draft)
28.Mörner N-A and Parker A (2013). Present-to-future sea level changes: The Australian case, Environmental Science, An Indian Journal, ESAIJ, 8(2), 2013 [43-51]
29.Scafetta N (2013a). Multi-scale dynamical analysis (MSDA) of sea level records versus PDO, AMO, and NAO indexes. Climate Dynamics. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1771-3 (In press; preprint here.)
30.Scafetta, N (2013b). Discussion on common errors in analyzing sea level accelerations, solar trends and global warming. Pattern Recognition in Physics. 1, 37-57, 2013. doi:10.5194/prp-1-37-2013.
31.Plus, according to news reports, several papers suppressed by the New South Wales, Australia government. [1] [2&2b]
There are also numerous peer reviewed papers describing cyclical sea ice gain and loss, as well as ocean current changes alone being responsible for up to 40 percent of the ice loss, and wind currents and jet stream pattern changes as being an additional factor. Yes there was some warming, but the majority f the peer reviewed papers regarding Sea Ice reduction in the artic do not state that man kind is responsible for that warming.
Warren, it is curious how the CAGW scientist that is all you apparently read, can only think the ice loss in the Arctic is due to our SUVs, but the ice gain in Antarctica has dozens of natural factors. Perhaps you do not find that observational instructional? To me it is because they not only made many natural excuses, they missed the most obvious natural reason for increased Antarctica sea ice; the southern oceans have cooled!
Yep, if we weren’t there to observe it, it wouldn’t happen.
/sarc
“I believe in evidence. I believe in observation, measurement, and reasoning, confirmed by independent observers. I’ll believe anything, no matter how wild and ridiculous, if there is evidence for it. The wilder and more ridiculous something is, however, the firmer and more solid the evidence will have to be.
— Isaac Asimov”
MCR
David A: But those aren’t real scientists, besides they’re in the pay of big oil. /sarc
@David A
Dream on. Nearly all peer reviewed papers confirm, support, or conclude AGW. And the acceleration of sea level rise is repeatedly confirmed, most recently in a paper by Skakun that showed earlier pre-industrial estimates of sea level rise were overstated, so the rate of rise seen today is even more an acceleration than previously thought.
The papers you list are mostly regional studies, not global. They don’t count.
When you’re reading print, tone is all in your head. I found nothing objectionable at all in the tone of the article.
If the model is accurate, the we can return summer ice to the north pole even after its all melted- though I know no reason why we might want to.
In my opinion, the concentration on “global warming” has forced our attention away from global pollution and fresh water loss. The amount of garbage (especially plastics, oil products) we as a species have burdened the land, air and oceans with and the frightening loss of fresh water and “natural” areas is a FAR more important issue than the scientific argument about global warming. This echos the Lord of The Rings ploy of keeping the EYE off the real threat!!!
We, as a species need to accept that there are too many of us and work to reduce the population by encouraging reduced birth rates. The corporate and political forces are actually working in direct opposition to this as economic models of today are all built on growth…We need new economic models and more wisdom directed upon the issue!!!
Would you care to document this “frightening” loss of fresh water?
The amount of pollution of all types that we are producing has dropped dramatically in recent decades.
Would you care to prove your claim that the planet is over crowded? Your naked assertion isn’t sufficient.
Birth rates are already plummeting. Even the UN believes that population will peak before 2050 and begin falling. (In reality the year is more likely to between 2030 and 2040, with an outside chance of happening in the next couple of years.)
Our fault. Of course it is.. Original Sin is a commonality in most religions.
The loss of arctic sea ice is actually a negative feedback as the ice insulates the water preventing it from losing heat to space.
So the hotter it gets, the more Antarctic sea ice extent? Funny, that’s not what was predicted…
You really don’t understand the concept of negative feedbacks, do you?
Hmmm, However…
1) The water below the ice can still cool as it is circulated around the ice above it and…
2) The air over the now ice covered water can get *much* colder.
You don’t understand how radiation works. When a warm substance is prevented from cooling off, it doesn’t get even cooler. By permitting the water to radiate, the water gets colder than it would have had the ice remained.
“By permitting the water to radiate”
I think you has something backward.
@MarkW
“…You don’t understand how radiation works. ”
You don’t seem to understand how conduction/convection works in addition to *or* in place of, radiation.
1)When you place ice cubes in a warmer liquid, the ice may melt some but the liquid still cools. Ice cover over an ocean surface (which has currents at & below the surface which advects [moves] different temperature water through the area) is not the only means of heat removal…as you seem to think “…When a warm substance is prevented from cooling off” The ice cover still provides a cooling process to any warmer water advected into the area. The ice cools the water it is is contact with (through conduction), that cooler water sinks & is replaced with warmer water from below…very obvious to me.
2) With ice covered areas of the sea (or land, for that matter), the radiation process of the heat in the air at the surface to space is much greater (for some reason) so the air will get much colder than if it was just over nearly frozen water or even below freezing but ice free land. When that much colder air is advected out over open exposed water, the heat removal from the water (through convection) is magnitudes greater than simple space radiation in calm conditions because the thermal gradient between the water & air is much greater combined with the turbulent mixing of the boundary-layer air over water/surface. This will allow the water to chill & freeze over much faster than in calm conditions .
JKrob commented
Where I think you might be slighting nature, the ice water interface, the ice will be very near 32F, and if the water is not moving very quickly, I think you’d find a boundary layer of near 32F water, conduction can move more energy, but the differences is small.
But I suspect you’ve never tried to measure the temp of the sky with an IR thermometer, clear sky from 8-14u is cold, @ur momisugly 41N during the winter I’ve seen -80F, and -40 to -60F temps during the day, in the Sun. To be fair you get to add the forcing from Co2, which is listed as ~22W/m2, but that has to be based on surface temps, so there’s no way it will be that large in the Arctic.
But you add 22W/m2 to -60F, and it’s equivalent to about a -40F surface the 32F water radiates to, Arctic air temp is irrelevant.
Then if you calculate the solar forcing that far north, verses water radiating to anywhere from -40F to probably below -100F, and at most there’s only one or two months of the year is forcing greater that radiation loss, depending on cloud cover. The wildcard is clouds, if it’s clear, open arctic water is a cooling system, the whole tipping point argument is stupid. And as we now know it was from models that left out critical parameters, and there’s no reason to believe they still don’t have missing critical parameters.
If you take two equal masses of water; say 100 grams each, and you put one mass in the ice cube tray and put it in the freezer to freeze; then you transfer the ice cubes to the refrigerator to settle down at about zero deg. C.
Then you take the second 100 gram mass od water and you heat it up to 80 deg. C
So now you have 100 grams of water at 80 deg. C just below boiling, and 100 grams of ice, at zero deg. C.
So now you drop the ice cubes, into the too hot to drink water (if coffee), and gently stir it all.
The ice will eventually all melt, while the too hot to drink water will cool down.
Just as the last of the ice melts, your thermometer that you put in to monitor the Temperature of the mixture will read exactly zero deg. C
It takes a whale of a lot of heat to melt ice.
g
Beyond that, the increased evaporation from the now exposed water means more snow on the nearby land.
I would have thought that by now the question of feedback of arctic sea ice (at least the sign of it) would have been resolved by now. But I am now understanding that MarkW’s view still prevails.
Recently I found this from Hugh Ellsaesser of Laurence Livermore in a contrarian presentation from 1983:
Thanks Berniel, this is exactly what I’m saying, but perhaps it is old knowledge by now? Here near the Arctic it is easier to see both the current warming and how difficult it is to warm a sea.
Current warming – the last 50, 100, 150 years, that’s what I’m talking about.
berniel: That article agrees with what I said.
I agree. With greatly reduced sea ice extent minima like 2007 and 2012, the rebound to the following maximum is very large. While with summer ice extent minima where there is less reduction in sea ice extent, the following rebound to maximum is smaller. That is a negative feedback.
I bring up Ellsaesser objection from very early in the warming movement because I am ever surprised about how the controversy has not progressed on various points despite the enormous attention from science. Thus, I would be interested to know how well the arctic sea-ice-reduction positive feedback position has been defended in the intervening 3 decades.
Another curiosity of the history is found the first time there was a lot of talk about an ice free arctic–in the mid-1950s. Ewing and Donn published a proposal that an ice-free Arctic would trigger…the next ices age. That’s taking negative feedback rather too far!
Y
I would suggest going back to school and brushing up on your Fourier series class.
“…if we somehow manage to cool the planet back down again.”
…aaand we’re back to “man must take action to cool down the planet”.
Arctic ice extent is very complex and I’m not sure any of the models have a full grasp of the entire system. For one thing, extent is geographically constrained. Ice can only grow in certain directions for so long before running into land. It may (or may not) get thicker, but thickness is not as easily measured and is not accounted for in extent figures. Also, varying wind patterns can remove ice from the arctic in different amounts in different years, regardless of temperature. Humidity is another independent variable that affects Arctic mass transfer. Low temperatures result in low humidities, which cause increasing sublimation of sea ice, the exact opposite of what models based on temperature alone will tell us. These new programs may take much into account that has previously been ignored.
October is the word they are looking for.
Michael hart —
Laughing outloud.
Eugene WR Gallun
Michael, Eugene,
Ditto, while rolling on the floor.
-Nick
Solved the problem with a critical observation.
SCIENCE!
I showed restraint; I only chuckled.
That is not news for those of us who knew the Arctic Sea Ice decline was all [due] to natural causes.
Of course the article, and all Science, says the opposite….
Models do not provide evidence.
Who said models are evidence? Maybe you did, but no scientist does.
Warren, the IPCC, AGW believers and the media seems to think they are,as they make clear they believe in the scenarios up to year 2100.
Heck, the models are what drives the AGW hysteria in the first place,take the models away,then you have nothing.
What science?
Was it science that noticed that the biggest so called melt occurred during a year when wind patterns had reversed and pushed the ice out the wide gap between Iceland and Europe, rather than it’s usual pattern of trying to push the ice out through the Bering Straits?
Data is evidence is it not? And it’s easy to find scientists using the phrase ‘ a growing body of data, generated by climate models’
https://www.data.gov/climate/portals/
You are amazingly ill-informed.
All science does not say te opposite at all Warren, and zero of the science said none of the previous increase in arctic SI was natural.
Also Warren you asked, “Who said models are evidence? Maybe you did, but no scientist does.
Well Warren I am afraid that the title of the upcoming article by these scientist disputes your assertion…
“How Climate Model Complexity Influences Sea Ice Stability.”
So Warren, apparently the GIGO in computer models influences the arctic Sea Ice.
@Sunsettommy.
No, you are completely confused about what constitutes evidence. But scientists are not. They use models to PROJECT future impacts, not as evidence that AGW exists. If you think you have a scientific reference claiming the opposite, post it.
@David Schofield
Model output is not evidence, and the complete sentence in your link says nothing about it being so:
“The links below provide access to a growing body of data, generated by climate models, relevant to understanding potential future climate change. ”
Note the words “…relevant to UNDERSTANDING POTENTIAL FOR FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE”
Nothing about evidence as to whether AGW is occurring.
warrenlb commented
LMAO, they have the clueless out running defense, the ranks must be getting pretty thin!
Warren, when you figure out why I think this betrays your ignorance, well maybe all the arctic ice will be back by then.
“all Science” ? Do you mean Mark Serreze predicting a likely meltdown in the Arctic for summer 2008? Camille Parmesan announcing the loss of a butterfly species from (as it turned out) a marginal habitat because of AGW? Suppression of evidence regarding the actual cause of the demise of the golden toad?
And who uses phrases like “all Science” anyway?
Warrenlb stop overstating the evidence. Arctic ice is increasing. Who cares? It will (hopefully) decline again, at least in summer.
There is no “tipping point”. That is the point of the article. The ‘science of tipping points’ is rooted is baseless alarm hoping to find a public opinion tipping point that would swing in favour of the AGW argument, leading naturally to a massive shift in how we approach energy production and use. It was always a stupid argument primarily because there is plenty of scientific evidence that the world has no such climate tipping points. If it has, it would long ago have tipped when CO2 was far higher than it is today.
When the climate catastrophism is tipped into the dustbin of history the alarmists will move on to the next man-caused catastrophe. The rest of us will address the problems of the age in which we live.
I don’t think I know the decline is all due to natural causes. It would be nice if it were so, but that is just an optimistic assertion.
The most recent ice losses are in line with what happened the last time the PDO went positive.
The evidence does not show any sign of any losses due to CO2.
@MICRO6500.
Modeling uses physics and DATA from the physical world to PROJECT the future impact of AGW.
In Science, DATA taken from the physical world of today is evidence, but please explain how modeling based on that same DATA now becomes ADDITIONAL evidence of AGW. Please.
warrenlb commented
Right, but you can’t augment your data to fill in missing data, with data that is based on your theory on what the data should be (cause you’re not actually measuring it), and then use that to prove your theory is correct.
When you do this, and your theory is wrong, you get what we have here. Model Output != Measurements
And it isn’t just that we can’t predict these large scale ocean effects (which to be fair were pretty new at the time), they didn’t leave any leave any room in the models temperature output for such a change, it was all allocated Co2 and Water vapor as a super-saturation at the air/water interfaces which gives GCM’s positive feedback with water, otherwise the models ran cold. So instead of fixing the model to account for the changes in the oceans, they juiced the impact of Co2 up.
MICRO: Your reply to my post doesn’t address my post. You tried to move the goal posts with a different point.
Back on track, please. I say Scientists don’t claim models are evidence. You say they do. Where is your proof?
You did not understand my comment then. The temperature evidence is corrupted by modeled data, the surface series published are no longer evidence.
And if you want evidence, do what I did and go read the process used for infilling and homogenization the temperature series.
CORRECTION that was not news to us who knew the Arctic Sea Ice decline was due to natural causes.
Saints be praised, we are all saved!
(…from the unimaginable disaster of having open water where a frozen and all-but impenetrable wasteland has long existed.)
Go Pope!, time to rattle the collection plate and take the credit before some rogue warmist beats you to it or Ban Ki-Moon, here is your big chance . sorry Al and little “o” tails they win heads you lose….
Others have suggested similar findings but were not given much attention. Tietsche (2011) in “Recovery mechanisms of Arctic summer sea ice”
wrote
We examine the recovery of Arctic sea ice from prescribed ice‐free summer conditions in simulations of 21st century climate in an atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. We find that ice extent recovers typically within two years. The excess oceanic heat that had built up during the ice‐free summer is rapidly returned to the atmosphere during the following autumn and winter, and then leaves the Arctic partly through increased longwave emission at the top of the atmosphere and partly through reduced atmospheric heat advection from lower latitudes.”
“Our results suggest that anomalous loss of Arctic sea ice during a single summer is reversible, as the ice–albedo feedback is alleviated by large‐scale recovery mechanisms. Hence, hysteretic threshold behavior (or a “tipping point”) is unlikely to occur during the decline of Arctic summer seaice cover in the 21st century”
My “very cold in winter when sun does not rise for months on end” model had the ice returning every winter, and being quite variable in summer, all along.
It is based on the archaic practice of long term observational studies.
Of course! Another model. Just what we needed. Showing what we’ve known all along, that the whole “tipping point” thing is nonsense.
Let the climate backpedaling continue.
There are more models in climate ‘science’ than on a thousand Paris runways during Fashion Week.
Yes more models…
“It wasn’t clear whether the simpler process models were missing an essential element, or whether GCMs were getting something wrong,” said Wagner, the lead author of the study. […] They created a model that bridged the gap between the process models and the GCMs, and they used it to determine what caused sea ice tipping points to occur in some models but not in others.”
But at least now it appears they are using models to figure out how the models are wrong. A model tipping-point…?
I do not see anything new here. As has been often noted, they have been using models to confirm the models for quite some time.
And the models always say just what they wanted, until they want them to say something else.
In any case, the models cannot be wrong, and have never failed…we just have not given them enough time to be (accidentally) correct.
relax. that was sarcasm.
Ditto.
http://www.qpg.geog.cam.ac.uk/lgmextent.html
Things appears rather ominous when we take this into account.
if it so ominous, why is there no ice right dead center at the north pole? It seems to have all migrated southwards, like some huge flock of migratory birds.
for Ferd: Exactly. Ominous in the opposite direction of the alarmists…
“During the past several years, scientists using global climate models (GCMs) that are more complex than process models found sea ice loss in response to rising greenhouse gases in their computer simulations …”
I thought GCMs were “General Circulation Models”. No matter, we all know the science was settled years ago, so it doesn’t matter that nature isn’t following the script.
/snark
[Yes. “General Circulation Models” became “General Climate Models” which quickly became “Global Climate Models” …. Follow the money. .mod]
Grant Collection Method.
Thanks Moderator, an Interesting morph of the acronym GCM. The act of creating “Newspeak” demonstrated there. Orwellian indeed. (There’s no conspiracy here, move along.)
Backpedaling ever faster. Except for the 2012 cyclone, all indices of Arctic ice have been recovering since the 2007 low. Extent, volume, multiyear. If the DMI and Russian records from about 1920 to about 1939 are half correct (there was a war interuption thereafter), the previous minimum was in the 1940’s. And the present min was 2007. Essay Northwest Passage provides fun details.
And Amundsen’s successful traverse of the Northwest Passage in a wooden sloop in 1906 would seem to indicate that lightweight wooden ice breakers are the best kind.
Or maybe it indicates something else.
Reading this article made me think that the day there is no ice in the arctic is the day I sell my house and move somewhere south, way south. http://harpers.org/archive/1958/09/the-coming-ice-age/
Thanks, mpw280. A fascinating read.
Can we list the obvious fallacies in this article?
It will be interesting to see if anyone can count high enough anyway.
Melting sea ice to raise the ocean and down the eastern US?
Sea ice covering entire Arctic ocean through all of history? There are reports of open water in the early 1900’s!
No explanation for the ice ages, and they defy all prediction? Nonsense, the Milankovich cycles were well understood decades before this article were written.
Oh, well, I guess I can count high enough, because I cannot read past the sixth paragraph…laughing too hard.
Typo: …and drown the eastern…
Thanks. Ewing and Donn had it figured out in the ’50s. It’s too bad so many people have never even heard of them. Instead lying idiots like Mann get so much credit. It’s insane!
Arctic ocean stays open water, even in winter, for tens of thousands of years?
According to the scenario, the Arctic Ocean should freeze up when sea level falls 300 feet from current levels…but they also say it was 400 feet lower for a long time and the ocean stayed unfrozen.
Also that it would stay unfrozen when the Arctic was open to the Atlantic, like now and for the past several thousand years…yet it is mostly frozen in Winter.
It does not add up as described.
This has all the trappings of a “walk back from the edge” paper! I’m sure they’ll ask for additional funds to do more research which they’ll find “natural” mechanisms are stronger than previously believed and current models don’t incorporate these well and we’ll need some more funding. The never ending govt/science industrial complex at work.
Let us suppose the existence of an arctic tipping point, as posited by the process models. If we passed that tipping point, would that force the end of the current Ice Age? In that case, the current interglacial would become permanent, on a geologic timescale. After all, I can not see Ice Age type ice sheets forming without arctic ice to help start things off.
If the above scenario is not plausible, what would that say about the process models?
The North Polar ice is rebounding now despite rising CO2 levels so these great computer models are wrong already, or didn’t they check the observations to notice that?
Now you’re combining observations and logic.
CO2 continues to increase, the arctic ice is recovering, therefor the models were wrong. OMG!!!!
I so wish I could reach over and smack them upside the head.
Really hard, too.
So it mussed their hair and everything, knocked their glasses askew and woke their dizzy butts up.
Can someone explain to me how a model can influence reality? Is this some new level of Quantum Theory?
Is the dead cat in the box really dead? We need a billion more dollars to find the answer to that via computer programs!
“Can someone explain to me how a model can influence reality?”
Tabya, take a look at your energy bill. You’ve probably already discovered how a model can influence {your} reality.
Boulder Reality- thanks, I just took a look at my energy bill and it’s been flat for 10 years since I have solar. How’s that for economic stability? Don’t have to worry about Assad, or the Sheik or nadie.
Since I and the other taxpayers paid for about 80% of that solar panel, you are welcome.
Oh Mark, you really didn’t pay 80%, but both of us paid quite a bit to defend a desert full of idiots and assassins and got nothing but IOU’s out of it and sad stories.
Leland, You’re just so superior aren’t you.
Mine’s going up as a direct result of renewables. I’m 83% [unreliable] renewable (up from 34% 6 years ago) and my bill is up 32% after inflation. Meanwhile, the next community over (same county) is actually down a few percent after inflation on their energy bills probably because they can buy coal and gas cheaper. The brother of my girlfriend works for the local energy wholesaler and just laughs at how much they are making off the renewables that politicians are stupid enough to believe are cost effective, will save the world {eye-roll}, and can create a stable power grid {not}.
And yes, all your neighbors are too paying the lion’s share of your solar panels. You’re welcome.
Leland,
You are joking, right?
Your flat-lined energy bills are because everyone else’s bills look like a hockey stick.
Uhm….
If there WAS a tipping point….
Beyond which the ice couldn’t “recover” even if the planet cooled…
Then there would be no ice there right now since there was none during the last hot house earth phase
or something like that…..LOL
If ice can’t recover, how did the ice form in the first place?
MarkW, maybe Earth came with ice pre-installed. (Do I need the /?)
pre-installed?
When’s the next service pack?
Is it ice-windows 7 or ice-windows 8?
/more sarc
…and how much time and money did these Einsteins waste to figure this out?
….”at least we can expect to get it back if we somehow manage to cool the planet back down again.”
“…..if we somehow manage to cool the planet back down again.” Pray tell, how are WE going to do THAT?
Next WE could somehow manage to STOP Earthquakes and the Sun from rising in the East.
Since earthquakes are now caused by AGW I am assuming that by switching to solar and wind WE will stop earthquakes. To stop the sun from rising in the east we’ll obviously need a special UN Solar Deference Tax.
I would have thought that it is pretty obvious that with 3.5 bilion years of observational data under a variety of geological conditions (even catastrophic conditions like bolide impacts and continental scale volcanism) there are no climate tipping points. The climate is remakably stable and on the whole cyclic. Based on evidence, how do these people ever think it would be otherwise?
There are some long term one-way vectors that influence the Earth, like the cooling of the core, and the sequestration of Carbon out of the atmosphere and into the earth by the biosphere, but even so the climate remains locked in to a few degrees this way and a few degrees back.
+1
Simples if only commonsense is applied.
We don’t have 3.5 billion years of observational data. We have proxies.
We toggle into and out of interglacial periods. It sure looks like some kind of tipping point is at work.
Even if the planet’s average temperature doesn’t change that much, there used to be about a mile of ice above where I’m sitting right now (if you believe the proxies).
</pedantic>
“………..no tipping point is likely to devour what’s left of the Arctic summer sea ice. So if global warming does soon melt all the Arctic sea ice, at least we can expect to get it back if we somehow manage to cool the planet back down again.”
So the planet is too hot for these guys, is it? Want it to be colder, do they?
After the severe winter we’ve had the last two years here in the upper Midwest, is say they’re nuts. Bring back the warmth of the the MWP and to hell with these guys. Unfortunately, because of how quiet the sun is right now, another MWP-like warm period does not appear to be in the cards for us.
If these dim bulbs expect me to believe their tipping point garbage and want a colder planet, they can move to Pluto. Plenty cold there. And, oh, I forgot. Pluto is just a dwarf planet now, but there should still be enough room for them there.
The backpaddling begines. Oh wait, backpaddling in ice!
There have been many archaeological sites found in Greenland (but they wouldn’t know that), the oldest on Peary Land about as far north you can get on land, dating back over 4000 years:
“Peary Land was historically inhabited by three Eskimo cultures, during which times the climate was milder than presently: • Independence I culture (around 2000 BC, oldest remains dating from 2400 BC) • Independence II culture (800 BC to 200 BC) • Thule culture (around AD 1300) …” (Wiki until bowdlerised by Connelly).
Currently reading “The Frozen Echo” by Kirsten Seaver , dealing with Norse occupation of Greenland and
North America, AD 1000-1500 and the historical and archaeological records .There are several mentions of reindeer(caribou) feeding on the abundant green pastures in South West Greenland ( where the so called Eastern Settlement was located ) when the Norse arrived.
Is this not both surprising and significant ?