Guest essay by Joe Bastardi
I am a bit surprised at some of the waffling in the meteorological community on the ENSO event ( then again, maybe it is I who will be surprised). Its evolving . I stated on our weatherbell.com site at the start of the month to get ready for the drop in the SOI that would allow the warmer sub surface water to come up and its like clockwork, its coming. Look at the SOI this month, and notice how over the last 15 days, alot of double digit negatives have shown up after a period that was basically a wash. I don’t know why there is all the hand wringing with this event.
The JAMSTEC el nino index has had this nailed from the get go. The REASON IT IS CALLED EL NINO is in many cases its effects mature late in the year, and the reason for that I think is that rising pressures over Asia force the shift in the global wind oscillation so that the feedback needed, when all things are equal, to produce the linkage occurs. It has been a mainstay of our idea all year ( if you remember the trashing of the Super Nino I did when that was being pushed). But its been interesting watching update after update hemming and hawing, the range going from the Super Nino in mainly public circles to an idea I saw last night, that low solar means no el nino. Actually the opposite is true, as every sunspot min since the 50s has had an el nino around it within 18 months.
Here is the sunspot cycles with el ninos in X’s next to the mins. It is not to say that el ninos do not occur because of the more standard ideas, there are other el ninos that have occurred, it is to say, that when the sunspot cycle is weak, el ninos tend to show up, so the idea of less solar radiation means cooler, so no el nino does not look good when confronted with the facts seen here.
Which would make some sense since a reduction of incoming radiation in the tropics, would have the effect of perhaps changing the pressure patterns and slowing the easterlies, allowing warm water to come to the top. In any case, check out the SOI fall pattern the last couple of weeks in the dailies
![clip_image001[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/clip_image0011.png?quality=75 "clip_image001[1]"){kind=small}
The latest daily
The warmer water is there, and is coming to the top
The JAMSTEC has had this all along, back in April when we had to debunk super nino hysteria
At that time the CFSV2 had this going to plus 2, the Jamstec had plus 1.25
The CFSV2 has this reaching a plus .8 or so now this winter, the Jamstec is consistent with its a shade over plus 1
It is interesting to note 2 things 1) it was too warm too quick, but maintained about the same value for the winter 2) The cry of the Super Nino crew that has changed from Super nino to 2 year nino, citing the CFSV2 is not agreed with at all by a) The D Aleo method that says in the cold PDO decadolly, these warm spikes last on average 9 months and b) by the JAMSTEC which agrees with Joes theory, and the physical realities of the overall pattern. That monster warm look in the Pacific 2 years from now is likely to be almost opposite of what it is now. Look at the current SST ( left) then in Jan 1958 middle, then in Jan 1961
Amazing, isnt it
Now a snide climate comment., what do you think is going to happen to the global temp, since here, the last 10 years,
when this predictable cyclical flip occurs?
Let’s remember while September was 1st warmest ever by NOAA’s bullhorn, it was 8th in the NCEP satellite era, 7th in Dr Roy Spencers UAH and 9th in the RSS. Of course if you look at everything, then you see everything, but if you refuse to look, then you blindly report only on what you see. ( especially if it fits your missive
Thanks Joe, your timing is perfect! I was just referring a number of people your way.
Permission to report your report elsewhere?
sure
By the way, many of consider the MEI the “gold standard” for the state of the enso
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/
we have been in a warm event for 4 months now and you are seeing the results, which is why its puzzling as to why people dont think there is an enso event coming on, ( its actually, to many of us already going on) Look at how wet the summer got in the southwest, Look at the cool in the central US. Look at the se pacific hurricane season, you could not get closer to the 1976 season . We took that into account in our preseason forecast for rainfall in the southwest, part of the reason I went so hard after the perma droughters
The pattern is already showing the resutls of an enso event.That some mythical line has to be crossed and you can pick the line, is not the way it is done. I can pull out the 90 day SOI and its in an el nino now, or the MEI.. effectively the weather pattern is reacting to a weak, event and we believe that this will continue to show itself and interact with other important variables to produce the kind of winter we have forecasted
The low valleys here in southeastern Washington State haven’t had frost yet, and we are still harvesting tomatoes from our gardens, which is somewhat unusual for the end of October.
This mornings Daily has SOI is in the tank again
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/
Hi, Joe. Thanks for that. The correlation between sunspot activity and el Nino at Chart ! could be misleading. Are all El Ninos in the period marked on the chart? Do La Ninas occur mainly at peak sun spot activity? It would be useful to the unlettered (like me) to see this information.
Hi Joe. Although I’m a big fan of yours, I’ll agree with Kevin Lohse. You’re missing a plethora of El Niños in your solar cycle chart. El Niños can and do occur at any part of the solar cycle. I’ll be happy to add the other El Niños to your chart, if you like.
Up for a bet, Joe?
By some strange coincidence, this morning I was thinking of writing a post to show why I didn’t think an El Niño would develop this season. One of the reasons was the lack of westerly wind bursts along the equator in recent months and weeks.
That suggests the strong negative SOI values are related to off-equatorial weather, and not necessarily due to a weather event taking place along the equator.
Here’s the bet. It requires me traveling to your neck of the woods, which I would be happy to do. The bet is an inexpensive lunch. I love NY pizza, and there’s a pizza joint on 46th St, between 7th and 8th, north side, closer to 8th. I haven’t been there in about a decade, but I’ll assume it’s still there. If you’re not a pizza person, we can shoot for something else.
You up for it? Payoff sometime around Christmas/New Years. You’ve got my email and phone number, but I’m sure the people here would like to know whether the bet is on.
I trust your meticulous analyses more than any other, Bob. Too bad — El Nino could have given a break to Californy & the southwest USA.
Does El Nino always spell low precipitation for southern California? Is there a graphic that shows that? We are coming into the “rainy” months (Nov -March) for LA & S. CA.
Bob again the same as Kevin
Here is what I said
“It is not to say that el ninos do not occur because of the more standard ideas, there are other el ninos that have occurred, it is to say, that when the sunspot cycle is weak, el ninos tend to show up”
I addressed it right at the start. I never said these were the only el ninos It is an idea, a light shining on something people may not have seen
I have been steady at the evolution of this from the get go. While I can not quantify exactly the effect of the sun on the oceans and atmosphere, I do recognize that the sun does have some effect. D Aleo shows how more blocking occurs with low AP index, Bob, but there are times when there is blocking without it. I realize we are all partial to our own little kingdoms of the weather, but in the exchange of ideas, saying you agree with something that I ADDRESSED SPECIFICALLY and then implying it wasnt there, doesnt seem right to me.
I will try to make this clearer. Big blocking highs are associated with snowstorms in the ne right? But not all snowstorms have big blocking highs. Some are open waves, some are over-running. The enso event is a reaction to all around it. It is not some kind of mysterious event that has a mind of its own. Therefore it is conceivable that the intensity of incoming radiation may be a factor, and all I did was point this out
Hi Joe. I’ve reread what you’d written. My apologies for misunderstanding, but note there are a number of others who misunderstood as well.
Your comment was that El Ninos tend to occur (don’t always occur) when the solar cycle is toward minimum. I’ll agree to some extent: While there were El Ninos toward the maxes of solar cycles 20, 21, 22 and 23, there wasn’t one at the max of solar cycle 19 and there hasn’t been one so far at the peak of cycle 24.
Regards
And for those wondering about my proposal for a bet, Joe and I have decided via email not to wager on it. It was a silly idea on my part this morning, especially when one of the indices is already in El Nino conditions. Joe let me off easy.
Bob Tisdale said:
“While there were El Ninos toward the maxes of solar cycles 20, 21, 22 and 23, there wasn’t one at the max of solar cycle 19 and there hasn’t been one so far at the peak of cycle 24.”
At the maxima, rather than “towards”, the maxima of cycles 22 and 23 had La Nina episodes/conditions as the solar wind speed was faster at those sunspot maxima. Cycles 19, 20 and 21 all had El Nino episodes/conditions at sunspot maximum, and all had a notable drop in the solar wind speed at maximum.
Multi-year La Nina episodes occur more often on the declining phase of the sunspot cycle, i.e during the typical maximum period for the solar wind speed.
Kevin no offense, but I addressed that here
“It is not to say that el ninos do not occur because of the more standard ideas, there are other el ninos that have occurred, it is to say, that when the sunspot cycle is weak, el ninos tend to show up”
One can not argue the facts. But I never said all el ninos are caused by lack of an active sun. I am saying via observation, it is an observable fact. Given big volcanoes in the tropics have been known to have a reactive enso event due to ash restricting incoming radiation to the tropics, a possible idea to banter around by those with greater intellect than I is that perhaps reduced solar radiation to the tropics may be a contributing factor. But one can not ignore that while all el ninos do not occur BECAUSE this, when there is low solar, an el nino shows up
But I specfically addressed this issue in the piece above.
Thanks Joe, I stand corrected. What about any correlation between la Ninas and high solar?
With regards to the significance of the weak sunspot cycle to ENSO correlation, I would think it’s irrelevant whether el niño showed up during other sunspot cycles. The real question is whether there were any weak sunspot cycles when it didn’t show, indicating the correlation had other, unrelated, causal factors (e.g. Ulrich Lyons post below).
rip
Why does El Nino matter?
Don’t you think that water warms ,the sun is close,and IF you had a brain ===you wood not ask that!Our world is more intaingable than anyone can think!So for all the twit’s out there, one day ,our world will get cold =just because-& you can’t stop IT.Get over yourself.Why not look into who owns stock in CCX(al gore,g.soros.b.obama.)They want to put the American way,way down & that means you & everyone else,They just want more money.They thrive on STUPIDITY! the sky is falling.& Where’s chicken little?
There’s no need to make it personal, Nick was just asking a genuine question. He could pick you up on your grammer (sic)!
dereknee:
Generally not the kind of response that wins hearts and minds at WUWT.
You might try something with actual facts & logic, not to mention a lot less ad hominem & emotional ranting.
Nick,
Try this:
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/impacts.html
Therein, follow the link to:
See List of Global Impacts.
Really, derek, nick was just asking a question.
I would answer it like this: there was a big El Niño in the late 1990’s, which caused global T to rise fast. That fooled a lot of folks, me included. But then temperatures came back down, even while CO2 continued to rise. You can draw your own conclusions.
You can also find lots more data and charts by clicking on the ENSO/SST Page and the ENSO Meter icons on the right sidebar.
I can tell you why it matters to me. I live in South Central Texas. We have had dearth of rain (drought) for over two years. El Nino conditions bring us rain. Same is true for California. Unfortunately, it also matters to folks in Australia because it brings them drought.
Or if you want a real mind bender read “Who Turned On The Heat”. Only $5 and very informative. No Bob doesn’t give me any kickbacks but I really think it is a great reference for ENSO things.
The important point is that low solar shifts the net balance between El Nino and La Nina events over multiple decades and centuries.
El Ninos still occur during the low solar of single cycles but are less powerful relative to La Ninas.
We may well see an El Nino shortly as Joe suggests but it isn’t going to match the power of those seen in the late 20th century when the sun was more active.
The coldest part of the Dalton Minimum from 1807 to 1817 apparently had five El Nino episodes.
The cold period of c.1350-1150 BC:
According to Fig. 5, a series of intense El Nino events
(high red color intensity) begins at about 1450 BC that will
last for centuries. In that period normal (La Nina) condi-
tions have but disappeared. For comparison, the very strong
1998 El Nino event scores 89 in red color intensity. Dur-
ing the time when the Minoans were fading, El Nino events
reach values in red color intensity over 200.
http://www.clim-past.net/6/525/2010/cp-6-525-2010.pdf
Now that;s how you throw a suplex!
Who or what is “Virginia” in the title?
From an old x-mas story run in a newspaper. Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus. Google it, nice story.
http://youtu.be/j59U8Ccuf_A
Makes me wanna dance!!!!
http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=youtube+dances+from+the+1940&FORM=VIRE15#view=detail&mid=8E54E5534FE306D9392A8E54E5534FE306D9392A
A reference to the “Is There a Santa Claus?” editorial: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yes,_Virginia,_there_is_a_Santa_Claus
The original piece in the New York Sun, 1897.
http://beebo.org/smackerels/yes-virginia.html
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/equirectangular=-159.53,1.05,408
Pacific winds
Joe Bastardi wrote:
“But its been interesting watching update after update hemming and hawing, the range going from the Super Nino in mainly public circles to an idea I saw last night, that low solar means no el nino. Actually the opposite is true, as every sunspot min since the 50s has had an el nino around it within 18 months.”
Just after the sunspot minimum, at the regular low in the solar wind speed in each cycle, e.g 1997/98 and 2009/10. Many sunspot cycles have a low in the solar wind speed at sunspot maximum too, also giving El Nino episodes/conditions where they occur. Showing that the solar wind is the deciding factor and not TSI variability. El Nino being a negative feedback to declines in forcing is corroborated by the fact that colder centuries in the past saw an increase in El Nino frequency and intensity.
” El Nino being a negative feedback to declines in forcing is corroborated by the fact that colder centuries in the past saw an increase in El Nino frequency and intensity.”
On that basis would there have been more frequent and more intense El Ninos during the LIA than during the MWP and the late 20th century warming period ?
Ah but here is the “problem” eventually low solar all over, not just sunspot cycle mins, will have an effect on other areas of the globe, changing the result of the feedback. My take is that a sunspot cycle with predictable back and forth with high peaks has been warming the globe since the little ice age. What happens when we dont just deal with the mins, and the reaction to the overall higher activity, but its low all the time.. The el nino cycle will be forced to react to the change in then ENTIRE pattern of which the MOC and as Gray says, centuries of the system evolution may be involved.
I will tell you this. I think research toward things like this is money much better spent, than trying to justify climate change or agw or whatever it is today
Nice!
Hi Joe,
You said:
“My take is that a sunspot cycle with predictable back and forth with high peaks has been warming the globe since the little ice age. What happens when we dont just deal with the mins, and the reaction to the overall higher activity, but its low all the time.. The el nino cycle will be forced to react to the change in the ENTIRE pattern.”
My hypothesis is that the sun changes the gradient of tropopause height between equator and poles such that when the sun is less active the tropopause at the poles is lower which forces the entire global air circulation equatorward.
The result is more meridional jet stream flows ( the jets loop increasingly north and south) which creates greater global cloudiness, less solar energy enters the oceans, El Nino becomes weaker relative to La Nina and the atmosphere cools.
That seems to fit your expectations.
Do you agree ?
Call for a Mr Bob. Mr Bob to a lobby phone please.
Now that El Nino is on its way, can someone please let us laymen know what is likely to occur weather-wise over the next few months or years?
In other words, what does the historical record suggest?
Thanks.
Pedro,
Might I suggest you subscribe to WeatherBell? 20 bucks per month is a good deal imvho. Readers digest version of their current winter forecast is another cold, snowy winter except far west.
So what is happening El Nino will soon take place and is it in a global temp plateau stage or heralding further warming and even precursor to cooling. I have to say I read many articles here from all sorts of sceptical but I never seem to see a clear conclusion or prediction.
So Joe ( if you’re reading and can be bothered replying) you seem to be saying yes to El Nino but then talk of the pacific ocean temps flipping and show some ocean charts that are impossible to read . Are you saying after the El Nino the world will resume warming again?
Thanks lawrence13, I thought I was the only one that didn’t understand what Joe was trying to say there.
Tom In Indy
Don’t know about you but we see lots of discussion of ” the science”, but not a lot of direction or clarity . I’m still unclear as to what Joe is saying.
Yes I get the “El Nino” on its way part. However I don’t get the rest of the article. Is the message simply that El Nino is going to happens and that’s it. Why all those almost un viewable sea temp charts.
I have to say its not just Joes article. Even with the Willis thread today all this talk of Nasa, NOAA, Bom fiddling the temperatures but Willis seemed to non-committal whether they wear actually wrong and if so why -conscious or unconscious spin?
Lawrence13,
It’s ironic that you can’t make sense of what Joe’s saying ‘cos your writing styles are similarly awkward.
Punctuation and coherent sentences save the reader a lot of time, but patience can often mitigate goofy writing;
” That monster warm look in the Pacific 2 years from now is likely to be almost opposite of what it is now. Look at the current SST ( left) then in Jan 1958 middle, then in Jan 1961″
Just juggle the adverbs in your mind and clarity emerges.
I saw it, and I am sorry. I got this out quick, ( I had a 2 year change too) and to be blunt about it, I was going to the PSU game with a lot of people but thought I would get these thoughts out
In the past 15 years, I have written over 10 million words in blog form, mostly without an editor. When I took technical writing, we would get a week to produce a 1000 word paper, and I would be meticulous. My dad actually corrects what I do at home, my mother says its a form of recreation for him. But when trying to get something out quickly this happens
I averaged 3k words a day in blog form, though most of you dont see those. Out of those words, some actually make sense
I beg forgiveness.. I never was a finesse person
Okay Mebbe so your ‘e good with grammar but is there any chance of my questions being answered? Why did you bother being so smug when you had no answer yourself. What a petty waste of time some folk are.
I would also note that to date I still haven’t received an answer.
Joe Bastardi,
It wasn’t my intent to diss your grammatical chops.It is always a pleasure to read your stuff and I don’t begrudge at all the little effort required to get the hang of what you’re saying.
I don’t know if you’re right, but you’re certainly interesting and I look forward to what transpires with you and Bob at the pizzeria.
As for your detractor, Lawrence13, his charm eludes me and I really don’t care if he can’t figure anything out.
Lawrence13, on this site at the top you will find a link to Reference Pages, then Climatic Phenomena. There you will find two pages devoted to ENSO, which includes El Nino. They may be overly technical however. More practically, if you live in the US, El Nino is relevant because it is thought or hoped to bring rain to California and to create wind shear which breaks up hurricanes in the Atlantic. It may also elevate global temperatures somewhat by distributing warm water throughout the Pacific. Australians (and probably Indians) have an interest in El Ninos, but I forget the details. It’s a big phenomenon, so it has other effects as well.
James Strom
Thanks for the patronising but I’m still none the wiser , are you?
If so then tell me: do we expect the current temperature plateau to start moving upwards
his mouth might help him a bit more, James.
Lawrence13, this is a response to your post below. There was no intent to patronize but merely to provide some information that you might have been asking for. As to this El Nino re-starting the warming I would be skeptical. There have been several El Ninos since the jumbo 1998 event, but they did not significantly interrupt the “plateau”. More knowledgeable commenters here have consistently predicted a mild El Nino, this year, if any, and that cautious prediction is in keeping with what government forecasters are now saying. Here, for instance is a recent NOAA report:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf
So, while warming could always resume, it doesn’t look as though it will resume as a result of the impending El NIno.
Great discussion Joe!
I didn’t realize that there were El Niño’s shortly after the last 6 solar mins. This is intriguing.
Joe’s Saturday summary over at Weatherbell is now part of my Saturday morning routine. Always enthusiastic for his subject with lots of good information and explanation for the layman, always good humoured and entertaining even when he’s knocking lumps out of the AGW crowd.
Is this the answer to Willis’ Total Solar Radiance post?
no.. its an observational post and also to remind people, in the fog of the future what was being said by who back in April about this enso. Those of you that read the super nino hype saw me get on it and take it apart as the cfsv2 went through the roof. I also wrote it a bit in response to the AGW vasectomy Vigilante Eric Holthause who after being part of the Super Nino Crew that busted, now is trying to use the CFSV2 with its enso event forecast. The JAMSTEC rules the world of enso forecast in my opinion, though its reaction with temps, etc may not be quite right. But the point is with all the hemming and hawing, Joe D and I have maintained the idea this is an enso 3.4 centered event, in line with the kind that produce cold snowy winters in the US
And we said in April it would get wet in the southwest BUT WAIT TILL LATE FALL AND WINTER to help California, which I still believe is coming!
Once this flips though its back to the dry pattern overall there
Joe I don’t remember seeing such large areas with cold anomalies together in the N Pacific and N Atlantic see
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssa&inv=0&t=cur&expanddiv=hide_bar
Is this very unusual- if so what is the significance?
I think I get the gist, after a lot of effort, but I’d recommend that Joe Bastard hire a writer to help him express his points.
NotAGolfer, I respectfully disagree with your recommendation.
I’ll add it to the mosaic.
Telegram for Mr Mongo – time to do some proof reading.
Pointman
ENSO = master of puppets, hilariously jerking climate political activism on a yo-yo string
Never mind 20-part long-winded epic yawn-fests.
Katy Perry nailed ENSO in 4 minutes:
“you PMS like a b*tch
you don’t really wanna stay
but you don’t really wanna go
you’re hot then you’re cold
you’re yes then you’re no
you’re in then you’re out
you’re up then you’re down
. case of . bi-polar stuck on a roller coaster can’t get off this ride
. wrong . right … black . white .
You change your mind
Like a girl changes clothes”
— Katy Perry – “Hot N Cold”
If you’re talking about this Bob, he now knows.
Just gone 1:30 pm, Brisbane is 32C thanks to a great big slow moving high directing hot westerly winds off the desert.
Brisbane Airport weather station showing 28C and the UHI affected City station is showing 33C
If the BOM 4 day forecast for Darwin turns out to be correct, then SOI will be heading north again
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml
It should, it cant stay down forever and there are back and forth, but rest assured this burst is a big deal.. You will see it go back into the tank again later Nov into Dec
BTW have to look at Tahiti too. Darwin is only 50% of the equation
The JMA shows we have a rise period coming, but it also shows in week 3/4 the opposite developing again
Have done, Tahiti not, at present, forecast to drop as fast as Darwin:-
http://www.myweather2.com/Marine/Global-Ports/French-Polynesia/Papeete.aspx?sday=0&eday=7
But MSLP in both areas is well into their seasonal trip south. Strength of any event will probably relate to the level at which they both bottom out come Jan.
So basically the chaotic heating/cooling climatic interactions of the oceans, clouds, solar radiation, winds are insanely complex, and that complexity and chaos totally overwhelms the simplistic and trivial effects of CO2 and other GHG radiative forcings.
http://www.writerbeat.com/articles/3713-CO2-Feedback-Loop
Amen!
I’m looking out not for el Nino but for a big La Nina that could follow the small Christmas el Nino.
Recent Antarctic cooling and ice growth will have strengthened flows of deep water from Antarctica which could build potential for upwelling in places like Peru and west Africa.
It will be interesting to see how far south along the West Coast that rains will hit during the next 2 weeks with the upcoming stormy pattern. No question N.California drought relief is on the way. Probably rains into C.California.
Still extremely early in the storm season out there but the Pacific looks primed to bomb the West Coast this Winter………maybe we can make a big dent in the drought in S.California.
Tell you what, The modeling is going toward one of our secondary analogs, the winter of 77-78 ( primaries have been listed in weatherbell.com winter post) Its so interesting watching all this, because you see the similarities in the family of enso events, and they try to figure out which one takes over
77/78 would be my strong favorite here Joe.
Lots of precip in California in 77/78.
http://www.laalmanac.com/weather/we13.htm
Last December I went with 76/77 for an analog for last Winter which turned out pretty good.
This Winter we have the upcoming El Nino(if Bob is wrong) and 77/78 also having a weak El Nino. Also, the tendency for recent Winters to have a -AO/-NAO and also, over the last year, we’ve seen these northern stream lows/energy, frequently drop down thru Canada into the US(in the Midwest but more recently, along the East Coast) then get cutoff ala, the Polar Vortex last Winter and the Summer version of it in the Cornbelt this last July.
77/78’s Winter got exciting during the 2nd half when the AO/NAO went off a cliff(driving in bone crushing cold, with the Polar Vortex dropping as far south as the Northern US on several occasions(back when greenhouse gas warming couldn’t be blamed) and phased with the El Nino driven jet. Some huge snowstorms.
A version of this happened in the Winter of 2009/10.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table
“IF” we track with 77/78 this Winter, we’ll need all the coal generated electricity we can get again during the 2nd half of it that would feature that Polar Vortex again, along with additional energy/from the El Nino possibly dumping tons of ice(in the south) and snow.
Some great snowstorms occurred during the winter of 1977-1978. I had to re-define my understanding of “Once-every-hundred-years”, because the media hyped a blizzard that hit Boston in early February as “a once-every-hundred-years srorm”, and then there was another blizzard, much worse, later the same month. (It was a very short hundred years between storms.)
There was a significant thaw between the the two storms. The snowbanks by the roads sagged after the first storm, but refroze to rock-hard things that couldn’t be budged by the plows during the second storm, so the plowed snow went up the banks and then slid back down after the plow had passed. There was also a wicked wind that tended to fill the roads between the snowbanks with drifting snow. Boston was closed down for days, as just about every bit of earth-moving equipment in southern New Hampshire headed south and found work. Small, white, compact cars tended to be scooped up and moved right along with the snow, and some people didn’t locate their cars until the huge snowbanks melted down, in March.
There was also a third great storm, before the two that buried Boston. That earlier storm gave Boston only rain, but gave Ohio a blizzard. I remember the first storm because the winds were so string water got pushed up into the southeast-facing bays of Maine. I was living on a shack on a dock back then, and my shack, which had been sitting on the dock since at least 1944 (and perhaps longer) got sunk.
If this winter is anything like 1977-1978 then those people who like storms probably will get an overdose.