The Hockey Schtick writes: A new paper published in a journal called “Climate Risk Management” claims a ridiculous degree of “certainty” of 99.999% that global warming over the past 25 years is man-made. The claim is made based upon climate models already falsified at confidence levels of 98%+.
According to the authors,
“there is less than a one in one hundred thousand chance of observing an unbroken sequence of 304 months [25.3 years] (our analysis extends to June 2010) with mean surface temperature exceeding the 20th century average.”
Fundamental problems with this claim [which is basically the falsified IPCC attribution claim of 95% certainty on steroids] include:
There is no statistical difference between the rate of warming over the 27 years from 1917-1944 and the 25 years from 1975/1976 to 2000:
- Not being able to address the attribution of change in the early 20th century to my mind precludes any highly confident attribution of change in the late 20th century.” – Judith Curry
- “climate models are not fit for the purpose of detection and attribution of climate change on decadal to multidecadal timescales.” -Judith Curry
- Statistically significant global warming of the surface stopped 19 years ago and in the troposphere [which climate models claim should warm faster than the surface] global warming stopped 16-26 years ago
- Over 40 excuses for the 18-19 year “pause” in surface warming indicate that natural climate variability is far greater than climate models simulate, and is capable of overwhelming any climate influence of CO2
- Much of the warming of the past 25 years may be artificial due to urban heat island effects and extensive up-justing of temperature records long after the fact
- The paper uses climate models falsified at confidence levels exceeding 98%, thus the assumptions and conclusions derived from models are invalid
- The models also did not predict the 18-19 year “pause” in global warming, thus are not valid to determine attribution to natural vs. anthropogenic causes
- Climate models are also unable to simulate natural warming during prior interglacials, which were warmer than the present, another reason why they cannot be used to rule out that the past 25 years of warming is unnatural or man-made
- Additionally, climate models do not properly simulate solar amplification mechanisms, ocean oscillations, convection, clouds, atmospheric circulations, gravity waves, etc. and thus cannot be used to exclude these natural factors as potential causes of warming
- The model used by the paper assumes only solar total irradiance adequately describes solar forcing of climate, ignoring large changes in the solar spectrum and solar amplification mechanisms. In addition, a simple integral of solar activity does explain most of the known climate change over the past 400 years.
“Why is the period 1940-1970 significantly warmer than say 1880-1910? Is it the sun? Is it a longer period ocean oscillation? Could the same processes causing the early 20th century warming be contributing to the late 20th century warming? Not only don’t we know the answer to these questions, but no one even seems to be asking them!” -Judith Curry
Thus, this new paper is not even wrong with 99.999% certainty
 |
| Assumed climate model forcings for CO2, solar TSI, Southern Oscillation Index [SOI] and volcanic. |
The paper:
A probabilistic analysis of human influence on recent record global mean temperature changes
Philip Kokic, Steven Crimp, Mark Howden DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2014.03.002,
99.999% certainty every environmental group, organization , NGO and UN member is an oil industry puppet
99.999% certainty every environmental group, organization , NGO and UN member is an oil industry puppet
/sarc off
Fixed it for ya
No sarcasm needed. Given the empirically-demonstrated price inelasticity of demand for petroleum products, what price maximizes profits?
I wonder if 97% of scientists agree with the report.
Of course, their data is not adjusted for the enrichment in UHI and lower altitude sites that occurred due to site dropout starting in 1991 with the fall of the USSR. Also, they have never made an honest, downward adjustment for UHI, just a token at best and increased temperature at worst.
An honest adjustment would actually involve an annually increasing downward adjustment. So, for these two stretches to have the same warming slope, I think hides the fact that the most recent warming slope actually has a lower rate of climb.
Going GIGO for grants.
Temps go along level, there are some adjustments made to make it appear to have quickly rose 1/2 of a degree, it stays as such for 100 years… so all along the years you can say for X months the temperature has remained above the long term mean. Even on the 1200th month! So what?
Are these climate “scientists” that blind to not see what they are saying? It means nothing of any value.
‘Are these climate “scientists” that blind to not see what they are saying? It means nothing of any value.’
Isn’t that the whole meme of this Global Warming / Climate Change nonsense. It means nothing and whatever they do amounts to nothing. The only big advances being done in so called ‘Climate Science’ is the record amount of money being pis*ed down the drain to accomplish absolutely nothing.
What a wonderful world we live in…Me thinks it is time for the culling of the herd in the name of common sense and rational thinking. I just wish there was a place we could send all the eco-loons to so that they could get on with their utopian dreams and live in their nirvana state and leave all the rest of us alone to get on with our lives.
we’re the ones suffering because of your stupidity. soon, there won’t be anywhere (except your doomsday bunker) to go because people like you are destroying it on your own.
I understand, FACTS are LIBERALLY biased.
[But who own the “your stupidity” you are addressing above? .mod]
FYI Anthony, your link to “SkS Reichfurher John Cook” sends the reader to your WUWT article, but it also has a drop down that won’t allow access to see your WUWT page. The drop down says:
“To view this page, you must log in to this area on http://www.sksforum.org:80:”
Don’t know what is causing the problem, but am guessing you don’t want your own WUWT articles that you link to, to be restricted from review.
Not sure this is an appropriate phrase, no matter what we might think of John Cook. Surely we have been asked not to use the letters ‘SS’ for Sks so why do we get into the ‘denier’ meme by calling him a reichfuhrer?
tonyb
The guy photoshopped himself with a nazi uniform on. Have you not seen that? He gets called what he dresses himself up ass. (Spelling intended.)
tonyb, it’s a reference to Cook’s photo of himself in Nazi uniform. If he doesn’t want to be a reichfurure then why did he dress himself up as one?
I agree, the man is an incompetent alarmist, not a Nazi. No reason for us to take the low road, there’s a LOT of traffic down there, it’ll take us forever to get where we’re going…
Step 1: Create a crisis that will be perceived as unsolvable by democratic processes/institutions with the right propaganda dissemination.
Step 2: Convince public that emergency powers need to be granted to an authority (i.e.: Chancellor, UN) in order to solve the problem.
Step 3: Expand emergency powers of the authority as the problem threatens to spiral out of control.
Step 4: Drop all pretense of solving the “problem”. Declare yourself The Emperor, or Fuhrer, or whatever you want since you’re in charge and there’s nothing anyone can do about it, except perhaps those pesky
rebels… er, uh …Allies… um … skeptics.If I am a climate denier, then Cook is a climate Nazi, pretty simple.
REPLY: A year ago I would have snipped this comment as being over the top, but when we find that the SkS kidz play Nazi uniform dress up on their secret forum, I’d say the if the uniform fits, the name fits too. – Anthony
Pardon the pedantry, but it’s “Reichsführer-SS”, not “Reichfurher”. If you can’t make an umlaut, then put an “e” after the “u”. As in English, the “s” makes the noun genitive in case, ie possessive.
CSIRO – down-under. Did they accidentally look at the temp charts upside down?
/s
(apologies to the Aussie skeptics)
Peter,
Just curious, what planet are you on.
Because the rest of us are on Planet Earth. You shoukld visit us some time.
You probably wrote this amazing rebuttal on a wifi connection using CSIRO patented technology.
The CSIRO is one of the worst organisations for perpetuating the AGW myth because they need to ensure the funds keep coming from the government,
In 1960 I reached the height of 6 feet and zero inches. Today, I am a tiny bit shorter but still above the average for the past 846 months. This is more than twice the count of the study’s monthly run. I don’t know how many 9s might be necessary to express the chance of this happening. Maybe one of the authors can figure this out. But really, who cares? They have yet to get anything right!
I copied the following from the link provided for this piece of research:
‘To conform to the approximate physical relationship between greenhouse gas concentration and temperature, eCO2 was converted to a radiative forcing value using the approximation f(eCO2) = 5.35 loge(eCO2/278) (Myhre et al., 1998). These relationships also imply that temperature (in a closed system) increases linearly with the radiative forcing value of an input, suggesting that a multiple linear regression is a suitable approximation for modelling the global mean temperature anomaly.’
Please bear with me. I’m now going to copy several weak words of certainty from the paragraph above:
“approximate”
“approximation”
“imply”
“suggesting”
“suitable approximation for modelling”
Now, can someone please explain to me how the foregoing may “imply” or “suggest” a 99.999% certainty about something? Ok, how about implying a 99.99% certainty? Or, how zee ’bout suggesting a 99.9% certainty? 99.0% certainty? 95%? How about, maybe, even something better than a 50% certainty? Or, maybe we can turn it into a 99.999% suggestion?
They Lied? or are they just misleading? Or is it a concerted attempt to cloud up reality so that they can get more money to study it? OR they simply think that those who will read it are so ill equipped to render a reasonable judgment of their fantasy that they mixed low certainty words in with their fantasy high certainty numbers? So many logical possibilities.
A wise old Indian once told me to beware of men with forked tongues. They are evidenced by those who say one thing to one person while telling another by their actions. In this case it is clearly evident in their writings that they are speaking out of both sides of their mouths. That is the only thing 99.9999% certain in this paper other than it being a failure.
Sadly Climate Science has gone the way of Witch Doctoring..
High precision, low accuracy. For activists and politicians dressed-up as scientists and using statistics this outcome is a no-brainer. Add in powerful software/computers and gullible news media plus huge piles of money and it’s virtually guaranteed.
and then there’s the “closed system”; the enormous ziplock bag enclosing the earth and its atmosphere, visible only to the authors, and 99.9999% impermeable to detection by any method available to others.
This is another successful attempt to show that if you assume that there would have been no background warming then you can conclude that there would have been no background warming — and with great confidence and a low p-value.
Actually they have explained the warming on the early to mid 20th century. It was “natural variability”. See, there was some natural stuff that varied and it caused temperatures to rise. During the latter part of that century all of the natural stuff stayed exactly the same but we did things to mess it up. It’s just a coincidence that the two warming periods look identical because they couldn’t possibly have the same cause. The temperature was perfect back then, correct to 3 parts in a thousand. It was too cold before and too hot now, so we need to undo the unnatural variability and keep the natural part.
It’s hard to tell but I’m waving my hands around really hard while I explain this so that you’ll know that I’m right and I can do climate science. I wonder if NASA is hiring?
Wave your hands around harder and ask Gavin Schmidt. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/09/on-arguing-by-analogy/comment-page-2/#comments
(you can’t wave your hands around as hard as Gavin Schmidt, though)
Maybe they’re saying that there was no actual warming over the past 25 years and that the reported warming is just due to man-made adjustments to temperature records?
According to some politicians, there is no such occurrence as global warming. I personal believe that there is global warming and it is man-made. There is no getting around it. The world is slowly changing and it doesn’t matter how messed up the environment continues to be because people don’t believe in global warming. Goodness!
Southern,
Science is not based on beliefs. Church, faith in a supreme creator, and monotheist religions are the realm of beliefs. Science is based on falsifiable hypothesis. Beliefs are what has caused all the problems we now face with the like of 350.org, Al Gore, et al.
well thank you for your insight. (eye roll)
Yes, the world is changing… just has it always has for the past 4 billion years. Climate has always changed as well. The world is not the static system that the warmists want you to believe it to be.
ok. thanks
Gal, you forgot the Sarc tags in your posts..
I thought the (eye roll) was sufficient? 🙂
What do politicians know about anything?
Yes, towards the latter part of the 20th Century the earth warmed and it is highly likely man caused some of the warming (concreting over large areas, deforestation etc must have some effect). The question is how much warming v natural, is CS high or low and will any warming be catastrophic, dangerous or benign?
SouthernGal
September 3, 2014 at 9:49 pm
“According to some politicians, there is no such occurrence as global warming. I personal believe that there is global warming and it is man-made. There is no getting around it. The world is slowly changing and it doesn’t matter how messed up the environment continues to be because people don’t believe in global warming. Goodness!”
But SouthernGal. The world has stopped warming ca. 1998. Granted, the news don’t tell you this. But the RSS measurements do:
http://woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/plot/rss/from:1998/trend
Indeed, if the world were warming, I would probably think that the climate modelers have created working models.
But, as their models show warming, while the satellite measurements show non-warming or even cooling, I now think that
a) the climate modelers have exaggerated their competence greatly
b) politicians were all too eager to use this pretense of knowledge to inflict all kinds of taxes on the populace
c) The journalists are too incompetent to understand but very eager to sell a future catastrophy.
You see, it is measurements that tell me that all this is the case; not beliefs. Of course, my personal experiences with the weather coincide with the measurements. It is not warming.
Well, everyone is entitled to hold their own beliefs. Some believe in this others believe in that, there is no problem. No one has, or should have a problem with that, but when others start imposing their beliefs on others it becomes very dangerous.
The Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming theory has a problem, there is no discernible evidence to say it is true because the ‘proof’ is based on predictions of the future (‘the temperature will be x degrees, sea level will rise, there will be more this and that and less other’ ) the vast majority of such predictions in AGW field have so far not been accurate, but have been very precise in being inaccurate (temperatures to 0.001 degrees, etc.).
Unless you can point us to factual measurable evidence of AGW it remains a theory, and I remain sceptic.
Well, there used to be global warming but it stopped a few years back, which is too bad because global warming is a very good thing–it prevents global cooling. People like to live in the South because it’s warm. Northerners like to move to the South, but Southerners don’t like to move to the North because it’s cold. Detroit is full of empty houses that nobody wants to live in because it’s warmer down south.
But now global warming is making it colder which makes it even worse–no matter how much carbon we burn to keep warm global warming makes it colder. We’ll all have to move south to save ourselves from global warming. Move over, SouthernGal! –AGF
Alrighty then
At most time scales over the last half-billion years, the trend is cooling, not warming. You have to be pretty careful of endpoint selection in fact to get a warming trend. The planet has been warming since the end of the Little Ice Age, but cooled since the Medieval Warm Period. It has been cooling since the Roman warm period, and in fact has cooled over the last 8,000 years or so. It has warmed since the maximum of the Wisconsin glacial (about 19 thousand years ago), but cooled over the last 130,000 years or so (since the Sangamonian or Eemian interstadial). Push back to about 5-million years and the over all pattern is a continuous cooling. Cooling has dominated the 150 MY or so. The last time the planet averaged as cool as it is at present was around 250 to 300 million years ago (the Permian).
We commonly assume that humans “must be having an effect,” but until someone can really explain the workings of natural weather (climate is just weather over long time spans) we can’t sort out just what humans really are doing.
Thank you for the book report! Its not that serious. lol
SouthernGal, you can believe in global warming. You can believe the Moon is made of green cheese. But there’s a temperature record, which everyone agrees on including all the climate scientists. It shows no warming for 17 years.
I hate to say this, but what you believe doesn’t matter.
(And there are guys who have walked on the Moon who can testify to a complete lack of Gorgonzola…)
Why do you people keep responding to my post. Like I get it, we have different views. I haven’t even returned to the website. Stop commenting so I can stop getting notifications. Thanks lol
[Do you not take it as a compliment that the readers and writers here believe that you are intelligent enough to understand the real science, and realistic enough to be persuaded by the actual evidence? Then again, you can always turn off notifications if you chose to close your mind. .mod]
When you get granular enough, anything that has happened is almost infinitely improbable, because there are an almost infinite number of other ways things could’ve gone. These studies are more a proof of the failure of US science education than anything else, or evidence of a basic inability to think.
Just to illustrate your point, I’m playing solitair the other day and there was an ace face up on the deal and under that ace was another ace and under that ace was another ace and under that ace was another ace. So now I’m 99.999% sure the schwartz is with me.
Ah, Mel Brooks, where are you now that we need you?
For accuracy’s sake, that would be “Reichsführer” Or “Reichsfuehrer”….lest his krautness get his liederhosen in a knot.
For accuracy’s sake, that would be “lederhosen” — or was it a joke, “singing pants”?
Depends on how tight they are, nicht wahr?
That’s all the global surface temperature metric is, a statistic. It has no physical meaning, and gives a completely false impression that all points on the planet warmed at the same rate, or that they warmed at all.
Been saying that for years. It’s a totally artificial variable, and not a very useful or illuminating one at that.
Can someone please explain how the Natural Variation of the 1900-1950 period was stopped in the 1951-2000 period? The paper some how fails to explain just how they stopped the natural stuff and then how man took over…
Silly me. I might have missed it… /sarc
Seems to me that since their analysis ended in June 2010 and it is now more than 4 years later, they have probably been shopping this paper around at Journals for the better part of 3 years getting rejections. Climate Risk Management is a new journal, with an editor hungry for anything to start a track record that will take years to build to get an impact rating.
As for the 1985 date for their start of global warming, how do they reconcile with the fact GHG supposedly were affecting the climate by 1950? Who knows? Probably why even most other journals rejected the paper.
Maybe this will be their first retraction in shame.. One can hope this is a lesson learned in the school of hard knocks.. They missed some very basic Null Hypothesis things which makes me think that journal isn’t so scientific in its endeavor. Possibly a Propaganda front for the Administration.
Going to have to look closely at their board of directors and owners.
When dealing with extremists like the climate obsessed it is always good to bet they are simply cherry picking. Stopping at 2010 is certainly a cherry picking effort since more data is easily available.
Jan 1, 1951: the defeat of nature by the 1500 Nazi scientists imported to the US in Operation Paperclip?/sarc
I’m not sure which is scarier – that this is an exercise in propaganda, or that these f*ckwits actually believe what they’re saying ?
Ummm… HadCRUT temperatures. What is the level of temperature adjustment? HadCRUT2 level, HadCRUT3 level, HadCRUT4 level or are they preparing HadCRUT5 adjustments?
Just curious, but not curious enough to read the paper.
The latter without a doubt.
Scarier than that, and much more likely – they don’t care!
For years now, I’ve been tracking the rise of “controversy science” as a career choice. There are thousands of guys out there (with perfectly good PhDs), “proving” that cellphones cause cancer, that BSE is creating an epidemic of nvCJD, that vaccination causes autism… The list is endless.
It’s a guaranteed income, because failure doesn’t cut off the money stream. In fact, if you pick the right sponsor, failure is impossible; the most pitiful of nul results can be published as “evidence in favour”, and actual evidence against… well, it doesn’t have to be published at all.
These f*ckwits – they’ve got degrees, they’re published in a real journal, what more do you want? If it said nothing but “All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy” one million times, they’d still think they were doing science.
First Obvious thought. There has been “no warming” in the last 25-years!!
Just another example of why you should always write ‘climate science’ and not climate science.
Sadly, in our world today there is so little climate science and so much ‘climate science’.
In much the same way one mentions “political science” with a wink.
Kokic, Crimp, Howden (KCH 2014) is merely yet another shovelful of “science-y” stuff flung at the public in the continuing effort to provide cover for our almost-an-American simulacrum of a legitimate President as he undertakes to achieve by criminally unconstitutional executive fiat that malevolent crippling of the national economy which even the dwindling numbers of National Socialist Democrat American Party (NSDAP) politicians in the federal legislature refuse to undertake.
Would that essaying such actions against the common weal were more than just figurative suicide.
“there is less than a one in one hundred thousand chance of observing an unbroken sequence of 304 months [25.3 years] (our analysis extends to June 2010) with mean surface temperature exceeding the 20th century average.”
Show these learned scholars a sine curve. Every value in the positive phase is above the average.
a third of the world doesn’t care!
4 Sept: Bloomberg: Sangwon Yoon/Mark Drajem: China and Indian Leaders Said to Skip UN Climate Summit
The top leaders of China and India aren’t planning to attend this month’s United Nations summit on climate change, signaling tepid support for a global pact to cut greenhouse gases among two of the largest emitters…
“I was completely shocked and very disappointed to read today that Chinese President Xi and Indian Prime Minister Modi may not make it to Ban Ki-moon’s Climate Summit,” said Tony deBrum, the foreign minister of the Marshall Islands, in the northern Pacific Ocean, in a statement. “For the small island states of the world, the science says we might be forced to pay the biggest price of all — the loss of our countries. We expect solidarity from our developing country compatriots, not excuses.” …
“The issue for us is really on the commitments that countries will bring and the secretary general expects member states to come with strong and bold commitments on climate change,” Ban’s spokesman, Stephane Dujarric, said yesterday in New York. He said he has nothing to add when asked about the leaders’ attendance…
The summit comes as scientists are increasingly warning of the risks of climate change…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-03/xi-and-modi-said-to-skip-un-climate-summit-later-this-month.html
I think this is all above board and we are clearly responsible for 99999.999999% of warming except when it’s cold, in which case it’s weather.
After all, how else could a brand new journal publish a brilliant paper by 3 authors based at CSIRO, when the editor in chief is also from CSIRO and James Hansen as an associate editor?
Very clever of the authors to avoid the £1500 fees by submitting during the special offer period. Of course if they’d waited until next year they could have taken advantage of the BOGOF promotion.
I went looking for the masthead, editor, or editorial board of the Journal. I could not find one that wasn’t behind a paywall.
I did find the authors of Vol 1, No. 1, page 1-4, “What is climate risk management?” So I make the assumption that these two authors have something to do with the management of the journal.
William R. Travis
Department of Geography, University of Colorado, 260 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309-0260, USA
Bryson Bates
CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, Private Bag No. 5, Wembley Western Australia 6913, Australia
For anyone insisting that the only credible authorities on global warming are peer reviewed authors, this nonsense should put things in perspective.
In the climate pal review system, being a published author is almost a red flag.
We might even call it a maroon flag.
“There is less than a one in one hundred thousand chance of observing …”
But the prosecutors fallacy is much more common.