NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has published its latest graphs for the month of July, and while sunspot and radio flux numbers showed little change and increased respectively, the Geomagnetic Ap index is back near the bottom again.
Further, as we noted back in October of 2013, and as NASA suggested in May 2013, it looks like a “twin peak” of solar cycle 24 is almost a certainty as the cycle is now on it’s historically predicted down-slope. Meanwhile, we have an angry looking sunspot which is looking directly at Earth and has a chance of producing X class flares.
From NASA’s Spaceweather.com:
CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspot AR2130 is directly facing Earth and it has a complex ‘delta-class’ magnetic field that harbors energy for strong flares. The question is, will this stubbornly-quiet sunspot actually erupt? NOAA forecasters estimate a 45% chance of M-flares and a 10% chance of X-flares on August 4th
From SWPC, here are the graphs:
The Ap index is at 5, and continues its slump since circa 2006.
More information is available at WUWT’s Solar Reference Page.