As many readers know, there was quite a hullaballo over the Kaya Identity last week, two posts by Willis Eschenbach here and here created sides seemingly equally split on whether the equation is useful or not.
One of the most strident critics was Dr. Roger Pielke Jr., and in the spirit of keeping an open mind on the issue, I offered him space on WUWT. Here is my email and his response, reprinted with his explicit permission.
On Mon, Jul 14, 2014 at 9:52 AM, Anthony xxxxxxx@xxxx.com wrote:
Hello, Roger Jr.,
I’d like to direct you to a comment on WUWT that challenges your calculations using the Kaya Identity.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/12/the-beer-identity/#comment-1685623
I provide it only for your information.
I know both of you have issues with the current state of discussion on WUWT regarding that equation/identity/relationship, and I’m certainly OK with that.
I think that much of the dissent over it has to do with the difference in viewpoints between science and engineering. I and many others look at the Kaya identity equation more from the engineering perspective, and expect it to perform as many other calcs do, but it seems that it doesn’t act as a hard equation, but more like a soft one, that generally defines the relationships of terms. A number of commenters have approached it from the engineering viewpoint, and find themselves puzzled as to why the numbers they get don’t seem sensible.
I puzzle over that also.
To that end, and because you’ve been highly critical, agreeing with such statements as “breathtakingly ignorant”, therefore, given the critical comment above, I’d like to offer this, first raised in another comment:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/12/the-beer-identity/#comment-1684325
Perhaps Anthony could give equal time to Pielke in defense of the Kaya identity?
I’m more than happy to do so should you be so inclined; not just for my own education on the topic, but for the hundreds, if not thousands of others that suffer from the same doubts that the equation isn’t as well thought out as some claim it to be. Or, if it was never intended to produce real world numbers accurately, but serves only to illustrate the relationship of the variables, explain that clearly so that the engineering types understand it better.
If you wish to make a submission, MS Word with embedded images works best. Any equations you might want to use in MS word’s equation editor don’t translate to WordPress well, so they will be converted to images. Or, you can optionally use LaTex, which is supported directly in WordPress.
I would appreciate an answer, no matter if it is a yes or a no. Thank you for your consideration.
Anthony Watts
=========================================================
Roger’s response Tuesday, July 15, 2014 6:59 AM (published with permission)
Hi Anthony-
Thanks for your email. Apologies for the delay in responding, as have been off email while traveling.
If you’d like to help your readers better understand the use of the Kaya identity, which I think is the most important tool for analyzing actual and proposed carbon policies, then I would recommend that you introduce them to this paper (open access);
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/4/2/024010
The mathematics are simple. Of course, there is a more in depth discussion in my book, The Climate Fix.
Finally, for those who’d prefer a lecture format, here is me at Columbia Univ last summer explaining the significance of the Kaya Identity for climate policy analysis:
Thanks, and all the best,
Roger (Jr.)
==============================================================
I agree with Roger that: “The mathematics are simple.”
In fact I think it is that simplicity that lends itself to being criticized as not being fully representative of a complex system. Willis described the Kaya Identity as being “trivially true” while Roger in his book and video treats its with the same respect as some physical law equation. My take is that the truth is somewhere in the middle between those viewpoints.
Whether it is best used as a political tool or as a physical science tool is still an open question in my mind, though I tend to think it leans more towards political usefulness. Whatever your viewpoint is, let’s thank Roger Pielke Jr. for taking the time to respond and to offer his view here.
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I don’t have 90 minutes for a “simple” explanation. I’m raising points I have raised before. Why is it all about “fossil” fuels and not the non-“fossil” hydrocarbon sources of CO2? ethanol? bio-gas methanol? wood? And where in the equation are the natural CO2 sources? Or is it as I have posed elsewhere anthrocentric – all about man?
It includes that too.
Another version of Kaya identity
2 + 2 = 5 ±1
and just as useful. Post modern science at work. In addition to peer review now we have to redefine maths too.
I’m on the road with little time at the moment, but I wanted to thank Dr. Pielke for providing his viewpoint. I may not reply for a few days until I get back, but I greatly appreciate his willingness to discuss the issue.
Best to all,
w.
The meaning of the word equation: both sides are equal. There is no such thing as a soft equation. Either two things are equal, or they’re not. The climate models are more accurate than that ridiculous so-called equation.
Don’t fudge. Willis was not just wrong, but snarky wrong. And you published it.
[we are giving your opinion on the matter all the consideration it deserves -mod]
If the Kaya Identity is useful for climate policy analysis, as Dr. Pielke says, then it would be concerned with human sources of CO2 only. Climate policy has little or no effect on natural CO2 sources. Such policies would also have little effect on human emissions that are due to acts of war, criminal behavior, or unintended accidents, such as wild fires, burning coal seams, etc. It would be mostly concerned with everyday human activity that can be influenced or controlled through climate policy. If it is used to educate or make recommendations, I’m all for it. But I’m 100% against using it to control people through carbon taxes, onerous regulations, or any other non-optional use of the law.
I always get very excited when experts and scientists, Dr. this or that, doesn’t seem to be able to wrap their minds around something simple. In his video he uses a bathtub as an illustration for explaining the challenge of stabilizing the Carbon Dioxide (CO2) level. This is how i understand it, – written in very simple english; The effect of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is almost as high it can be, simply because the effect of adding more Carbon Dioxide (CO2) decreases as the level of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) increases, and the level is close to saturated in the atmosphere already, a further increase of the amount of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) will only give a theoretical (approx. 1 degree Celsius that are most likely to be dwarfed by other variables), non measurable temperature increase.
In other words, if you’re in the bathtub – all submerged in a completely full bathtub – to continue to add water will not make you any wetter. It’s the same with Carbon Dioxide (CO2) – it doesn’t rise temperature.
Read more; http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/03/08/the-logarithmic-effect-of-carbon-dioxide/
One more equation.
We put spending per hectare and
environmental and tax red tape per productive sector,
and a particular population in DC and its bureaucracies,
and then we balance it all with a molecule on the other side.
Which molecule shall we balance this Eris tocratic force with? Something really avoidable, like arseno-legislentium. Really we cannot have levels like this in our capitals. Sorry.
Hopefully people who have been trying to use the identity as a formula will stop doing that and follow the example in Dr. Pielke’s link. A good test is to use current values and calculate the necessary rate of change in each parameter to realize a predetermined level of CO2 emissions by some predetermined date. The U of Chicago calculator does this using their selections but does quickly let the visitor explore the impact of these changes.
Thanks Dr. Pielke. I’m looking forward to reading and viewing this this weekend.
CO2 emissions do not vary in direct ratio with GOP. As stated above CO2 has a logarithmic effect (if any overall effect in the real atmosphere) and that effect is close to, if not at, saturation. This is another example of simplistic linear projection based on false assumptions. It is useful but misleading in discussion with those with low information such as politicians, it’s target audience.
FYI: In the video, Dr. Pielke introduces the Kaya Identity just past 18 minutes in, and he begins to explain the parts that make up the identity at 20 minutes in.
Has this link been posted here recently?
Main page http://climatemodels.uchicago.edu/models.html
Specific page http://climatemodels.uchicago.edu/kaya/
It kinda makes sense, however given the softness of the parameters any hope of accuracy must go out of the window. Having said that, accurate or not, it will provide guidelines to the politicos as to whether they can reach their targets. More importantly, from my point of view, including the GDP/head of population makes it explicit to the politicos that any mistakes that are made in their assumptions will have a price to pay in the GDP/head of population. All too often these mitigation strategies are developed with lots of arm waving and it will be “alright on the night” this at least tries to show the interaction between mitigation and economic welfare.
It is not Schroedingers Wave Equation, or Kirchoff’s Laws, that’s for sure, but a reasonable attempt at telling the whole story. The politicos should have some backcloth against which to make their decisions.
who cares about co2?
those who want to tax your breath, is who.
what’s the kaya incantation good for?
parasites to befuddle their victims while they catherize a main vein is what.
the science is ‘how to bleed you out’
it’s a cookbook!
Let’s simplify the problem: We will concentrate only on CO2 generated by cars:
[Cars identity] CO2 = (Number of cars) * (average CO2 generated by a car)
Now I take a liberty of twisting Dr. Pielke’s statements (I have changed “population” to “Number of cars” and “economy” to “cars”) in http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/4/2/024010 to apply to this equation:
According to the logic of this relationship, carbon generated by cars and accumulating in the atmosphere can be reduced only by reducing (a) the number of cars, or (b) the carbon intensity of a car. Most proposals advanced by governments and in international negotiations focus on actions that will lead to the reduction of the carbon intensity of the car (whether or not they are explicitly presented as such), which in this paper is referred to as ‘decarbonization’. Policies
to reduce the number of cars or that result in economic contraction are not generally considered by governments as a strategy of emissions reductions. Thus, the [Cars identity] provides a
straightforward and useful basis for evaluating the proposed and actual performance of policies focused on decarbonization and which are typically called mitigation policies.
What does [Cars identity] really tell us? Nothing. It is only a thinly veiled definition of an average:
(average CO2 generated by a car) = CO2 / (Number of cars)
There is absolutely no insight here, deep or useful. The [Cars identity] brings nothing new to the table. Yes, you can reduce car emissions by limiting the number of miles driven, or by building more efficient engines, or hybrid cars, or electric cars – but all of it comes from our knowledge of cars, not from the [Cars identity].
Ian says:”and that effect is close to, if not at, saturation.”
Saturation would be 1 million parts per million. We have a long, long way to go.
Dr. Pielke is a man I respect. Not strident; well reasoned in his arguments.
Okay, went from 18:00 to about 46:00
For me, the most interesting parts were the Dungeness B comparison at around 39:00 and the 3rd runway/China example at 43:00.
While I appreciate that Roger finds Kaya useful in his work. To me in the real world, it’s still garbage.
I’d rather see an identity factoring in CO2 hysteria and Deep decarbonization hysteria.
“An extremely powerful tool for policy analysis.”
C = C
Wow.
Of all the discussion topics, I have no idea why anyone is making a big deal out of this.
Who was making a big deal out of Willis’s original post?
Perhaps what is truly interesting here, is that these soft “sciences” have gotten away with impersonating actual science for so long, that they now believe these kind of methods can produce useful information.
There is an obvious failure to communicate at play in both of Willis’s posts.
This Kaya thing, is a mockery of empirical measurement and reproducible results.
Sorry couldn’t watch after he endorsed weepy Bill ;>(
From the Transcript button of the YouTube video: [needs work!]