While we have done this usually a week ahead in prior years, I’m very late out of the gate this year, as I have a lot of distractions and work on my plate.
Due to the deadline being today, this will be a short poll that will close at 5PM PST today. Get your votes in.
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From: http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook
First Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
June Report (Based on May data)
Submission deadline: Tuesday, 10 June 2014
Contact: Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Since 2008, the annual SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) has obtained over 300 community predictions of the September sea ice extent.
This year represents a transition for the SIO, as it is now managed as part of the Sea Ice Prediction Network project as a contribution to SEARCH. The goal of the SIO is to improve sea ice prediction on seasonal time-scales by developing a network of scientists and stakeholders to advance research on sea ice prediction. At a recent workshop and over the past few years, SIO contributors and users have offered many recommendations for expanding the SIO. Starting this year, the SIO reports will be responsive to these recommendations and will evolve to a more robust scientific tool. While keeping the same general structure for the SIO as before, it is time to encourage more model participation and expand the information provided from model activities.
For the June and July reports (using May and June data, respectively), we request pan-Arctic Outlooks. Later in the season (early August), while updates to pan-Arctic Outlooks will be welcome, we will primarily focus on regional forecasts. However, contributions for pan-Arctic and regional will be accepted during all periods.
We will also post a separate announcement calling for participants in a SIPN Action Team to work with us to further develop and steer the details of SIO reports as the season develops.
We encourage all past contributors to submit Outlooks this year and we also hope to see new participants.
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The contest is to forecast the September monthly average Arctic sea ice extent (in million square kilometers).
For a primer, see the WUWT Sea Ice Reference Page
This year, a model forecast from NOAA CFSv2 says that we might see something well above 6.0 million square kilometers:
Source: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/sieMon.gif
If they are right, that line from September to October would put the average somewhere around 8 million, with a minimum of about 6.7 and much earlier. I find that a bit hard to believe, since it would be a return to minimum sea ice values of the 1980’s:
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center (NERSC) – Arctic Regional Ocean Observing System (ROOS) – Click the pic to view at source
OTOH, Arctic temperature is running below normal:
Arctic Temperature:
Mean Temperature above 80°N
Danish Meteorological Institute – Click the pic to view at source
So since the possible range this year is so wide, I’m limiting the poll to increments of 250,000 sq Km instead of the 100,000 used in previous years. Otherwise I’ll exceed the maximum number of poll questions.
POLL CLOSED AS DEADLINE IS TODAY
As I did last year, I will submit the weighted average value of the top 5 vote-getters.
UPDATE: The poll closed as we have the deadline looming, and here are the results of the weighted average, which totals over 50 percent of the votes:
A value of 6.12 million sq km will be sent to ARCUS.
Tool: http://handymath.com/cgi-bin/wghtedavg4.cgi
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I predict it will be somewhere between the minimum recorded and the maximum recorded, with a slight possibility of it being below or above those levels. I also predict that it makes absolutely no difference whatsoever, but some people like to stress over it.
I put out my projected forecast for minimum on April 1 2014 Around 4,2500,000
https://twitter.com/NJSnowFan/status/451376664857948160/photo/1
None! You all can laugh at me now. But we will see who is laughing when I kayak ALL the way to the REAL North Pole in September. Whiskey or no, this is a GO!
Mine est is for AREA, Extent would be higher. 6,2500.000
TheLastDemocrat @ur momisugly 7:21:
Does your kayak have a sail?
We’re going to have another “Polar Vortex” next winter, which will limit Arctic sea ice to around 4 MKm2, but unlike last year, the grid will fail from record demand and people will die from the severe cold in the US.
5.25 +/- 0.50 and I’m wrong every year 🙂
TheLastDemocrat;
Whisky, not Whiskey.
Unless you are being sponsored by one of the manufacturers of those inferior beverages manufactured in places outwith Scotland.
(Sorry Mods, OT but couldn’t resist.)
Comparing NOAA and MASIE Arctic Ice Extent
Some might be interested to compare MASIE results with NOAA Sea Ice Index, since NOAA is a typical reference for Arctic Ice news. NOAA uses only passive microwave readings, while MASIE includes other sources, such as satellite images and field observations.
For comparison, MASIE shows about 700,000 Km2 more ice extent than NOAA both at maximum and minimum. This is usually explained by microwave sensors seeing melt water on top of ice the same as open water.
For the years 2007 to 2013 inclusive, each year MASIE shows higher maximums than NOAA, on average 5% higher. In each of those same years MASIE shows higher minimums than NOAA, on average 15% higher. The melt extent is more comparable: NOAA shows an average annual loss of 70.5 %, while MASIE shows an average loss of 67.5%.
What can we expect from NOAA for 2014 minimum ice extent?
Average: 4.40 MKm2, (comparable to 5.09 for MASIE)If the loss is the same as the seven-year average, the minimum for 2014 can be estimated to be 4.40MKm2, which is 13% less than the 2013 minimum of 5.08 MKm2. This is due to starting the melt with a smaller max extent.
Low: 3.29 Mkm2, (comparable to 3.81 for MASIE)On the other hand, if the loss is as great as in 2012 (the record recent minimum), 2014 could go as low as 3.29 Mkm2, which would be a new record.
High: 4.97 MKm2,, (comparable to 5.74 for MASIE)If the melt is as small as 2009, the 2014 minimum could be as high as 4.97 MKm2.
If the 2014 NH ice extent minimum is outside this range, then maybe the climate is changing. Note that an extent matching or exceeding 2013 would be outside this range.
Is there a yearly “Sea Ice Forecast Contest” for Antarctica as well?
I wonder why.
I voted 6M. My heart tells me 5.5M but if NOAA is forecasting 6.7… I want to think that they will not screw up that badly.
6.25 million km2, and that may be low.
The ice up there is really smashed up by a lot of windy weather and storms, and one thing that has happened is that a lot of pressure ridges have been built up. It is like the ice is an accordion and is compressed. That creates open water, which loses heat and also forms new ice, which also gets compressed into further pressure ridges.
Once the summer thaw starts those pressure ridges can start to crumble and disintegrate. They are just jumbles of loosely adhered slabs of ice, and as they fall apart it is like a small pat of butter being spread out over a large slice of bread. It shows you, in a sense, how meaningless the “extent” of ice is. When the “accordion” is compressed, the same amount of ice can have a small extent, but when the “accordion” is expanded the extent can be large.
What really matters is the temperature of the water, which melts the ice much more than the air does. The sea temperature also effects the 2m air temperature, and, judging from the DMI graph of 2m air temperatures north of 80 degrees latitude, the water likely is colder.
I’ve been taking notes on the ice up there for over a year now, and it is pretty impressive how the volume of the pressure ridges has increased. One team of arctic adventurers skiing to the north Pole described the conditions as “crazy ice.” My latest notes are at: http://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2014/06/09/arctic-sea-ice-melt-the-death-spirals-death/
Just two months ago the warmists bottled up their champagne glasses in the expectations of a Super El Niño and possible warmer global temperatures.
Now this hope is fast fading away and add to that their only global warming talking point the lack of ice in Arctic is doing that too.
Not easy to be a warmist with a straight face these days.
Lets remember that anything this year near normal is a huge win for those that have been preaching for years ( well before I) that its the AMO that is the major driver of arctic ice extent. Keep in mind that Dr Grays forecast implications of the flip back to the negative AMO in a permanent sense is around 2020, and this years relatively slight cooling in the AMO is a big deal as to what its showing with the ice. I wrote about this whole thing, including the linkage to the 50s hurricane burst on the east coast ( remember the AMO went cold for a time in the 50s, but the warmest water was dammed up on the east coast in the atlantic) and the coming turn for good of the AMO. I am going to show alot of this at idea, certainly not proven a only the coming 10-20 years will show it, at Heartland July 7-9 in Vegas.
http://patriotpost.us/opinion/26136
give it a read and watch the coming years.
One thing is certain. even if it gets NEAR NORMAL given what its been the past 10-15 years since the warm amo really took hold, we can safely say that co2 has nothing to do with this. Again Grays ideas rule the roost when it comes to what the oceans are doing to drive the climate
http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/gray2012.pdf
Let me apologize for this incoherent passage
I am going to show alot of this at idea, certainly not proven a only the coming 10-20 years will show it, at Heartland July 7-9 in Vegas.
It should read:
I am going to show alot of this idea, certainly not proven, as only the coming 10-20 years will show it, at Heartland July 7-9 in Vegas.
The auto-correct in this computer drives me nuts.. as it will take words and change them, and I just dont catch it sometimes. I am very sorry..Yes its my fault…as I am guilty of assuming that everything is as I thought I wrote it.
[snip no, we are not going to have you thread-jack again by pushing your own website and own views – Anthony]
During the summer of 2013 it did run below ‘normal’ all summer.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2013.png
How about a vote on this? Professor Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University has predicted that the Arctic would become ice free in 2015 or 2016, but not later.
Whatever the extent, all of the Polar bears will be drowned and life on our planet will cease when the atlantic conveyor stops and North American temperatures drop to 100 degrees below zero. I saw a documentary put out by NOAA called “The Day After Tomorrow”. Thank goodness our president is going to shut down all the coal plants so that all those people dont freeze to death. There are not enough books to burn to stay warm through something like that!
My call: Absolute, nominal normalcy. No high records, no low records, nothing remotely approaching a record.
Maybe I’m just missing something but Wadhams has been quiet this year about an ice fee Arctic. I wish he wouldn’t be as I am waiting for that Harold Camping moment.
You can keep up with Waddhams’ shenanigans below.
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/search/label/Peter%20Wadhams
RE: Caleb says:
June 10, 2014 at 8:46 am
At the extremes of compression, things go beyond simple pressure ridges. Slabs of ice “obduct” and form a double thickness.
Oldseadog;
Triple distilled Irish Whiskey is far superior to the Scots’ peat-soaked crud as you well know.
Re: @Anthony says: June 10, 2014 at 8:55 am
It’s not my “own views” Anthony. In fact it’s a long list of useful facts and figures for anybody attempting to forecast the future of Arctic sea ice. A long list of useful information still noticeable only by its absence from the WUWT sea ice reference page.
REPLY: We aren’t forecasting volume, we are forecasting extent, so again, your views that we should pay attention to volume graphs on your website (your favorite hobby horse) in this extent forecasting exercise are irrelevant. Don’t clutter up this thread further – Anthony
As we see here, the planet is still recovering from the Little Ice Age. Naturally polar ice is going to decline.
Notice that in the [natural] global warming since the LIA, the trend has remained within its long term parameters. Despite all the alarmist predictions, there has been no acceleration in global warming [in fact, GW has stopped].
If polar ice declines, so what? As with rising CO2, that would be a net benefit: much shorter transit times for shipping, with much reduced fuel costs, an open northwest passage, less need for icebreakers, etc.
The only reason polar ice is discussed is because of the endless predictions that Arctic ice would soon disappear. The alarmist crowd is desperately hoping that it does. But so what if it does? It’s all good… and it’s all natural.
NOAA may well be forecasting high for the dual reasons of if they are correct they can say – look at how well we did, and if the forecast shows below their level they get to ask “where’s all the ice we were expecting?”
From just a quick look at the graphs I would guess a minimum 5.7