Dr. Indur Goklany writes:
Earlier today on WUWT in the post, UHI and Heat Related Mortality, a researcher from Arizona claims that, “Extreme heat is the leading weather-related killer in the United States.” I am afraid that this piece of nonsense is about to become conventional wisdom. However, this is based on cherry-picking one’s data source. The full story is given in the attached paper written in 2011.
Which is responsible for more U.S. deaths — Excessive Heat or Excessive Cold?
by Indur M. Goklany
The USGCRP Synthesis Report states that data on 19,958 deaths from weather related extreme events from 1970 to 2004 for the US indicates that heat/drought is responsible for the largest share (19.6%), followed by severe weather, defined to include fog, hail, wind and thunderstorm (18.8%) and winter weather (18.1%). This information is sourced to Borden and Cutter (2008), henceforth B&C. [Note that these estimates exclude deaths from excess winter mortality, which is a chronic phenomenon unrelated to extreme weather. Also, note that it’s not just global warming, but also the heat island effect that may contribute to excessive deaths in warm weathers.]
In contrast to B&C, other researchers have identified deaths from excessive cold as the single largest cause with twice as many dying from excessive cold as excessive heat (e.g., Deschenes and Moretti, 2009; Thacker et al., 2008; Goklany, 2007, 2009; Goklany and Straja 2000).
What accounts for this discrepancy?
As acknowledged by B&C (p. 10 of 13), it depends on data source as well as how the events are grouped. B&C used the Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States (SHELDUS; available at www.sheldus.org) which is derived primarily from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) monthly Storm Data publications, while the other publications use death certificate data maintained by the Center for Disease Control (CDC) in the Compressed Mortality File. In the US, death certificates must be accompanied by a medical certificate of death signed by the attending physician at time of death. As such, the CDC’s Compressed Mortality File is the best source for the cause of death.
B&C justify their choice on the basis that “unlike Storm Data (upon which SHELDUS is based), the Compressed Mortality File is not solely focused on natural hazard events. Although both SHELDUS and the Compressed Mortality File likely suffer from undercounting hazard related deaths [4,39], it is known that the only reason any of the deaths appear in Storm Data (and SHELDUS) is because of some natural event. In the CDC’s Compressed Mortality File, deaths are interpreted from classifying the underlying cause listed on death certificates [4], whereas SHELDUS mortality is derived from Storm Data.” It also notes that the coding system used by the CDC was revised after 1998.
Neither of these reasons is compelling. First, Storm Data procedures were also changed in the 1990s (B&C, p. 3; Dixon et al., p. 939). More importantly, studies that have attempted to verify numbers from Storm Data or the Annual Summaries based on Storm Data, find that they substantially underestimate deaths (e.g., Ashley and Gilson, 2009; Goklany, 1999, 2007). To quote Dixon et al. (2005): “weather-related catastrophic ‘group kills’ rather than ‘individual kills’ are more likely to be included in Storm Data. Therefore, this may tend to give more complete numbers for weather-related categories, such as tornadoes, hurricanes, or heat waves, than for deaths from winter cold, and the multiple categories for excessive cold deaths can also introduce an underreporting of cold deaths.” They also observe that, “The CDC NCHS’s Compressed Mortality Database is, in general, a more comprehensive database. As such, it would more likely include weather-related ‘single kills’ than would Storm Data.”
This observation is critical because it is possible to have people die from excessive cold even in the midst of a “normal” winter because of exposure to elements as an unintended consequence of intended or unintended actions (e.g., taking a walk in the cold or through loss of heating, for whatever reason).
Dixon et al. also add that, “However, the Compressed Mortality Database is limited by the medical personnel’s actual determination of the ‘weather relatedness’ of death, and the database often runs years behind current events.” Regarding the first part of this argument, one should note that determining the cause of death requires medical expertise rather than meteorological expertise such as the NCDC possesses. With respect to the second part, one must respond that in a scientific exercise, speed of reporting cannot take precedence over the accuracy or completeness of data.
Finally, although NCDC is a part of NOAA, the data it provides (based on Storm Data) is sometimes at odds with data from other parts of NCDC. For example, its data on deaths from floods is different from that of the Hydrological Information Center (HIC), the group within NOAA charged with keeping data on flood deaths. And the compilers of the Storm Data-derived Annual Summaries, themselves have in the past suggested using the HIC compilation (Goklany, 1999, footnote 38, pp. 337-338; 2007, footnote 214, p. 457, 2009, pp. 105-106).
For all these reasons, it is more appropriate to use the CDC’s Compressed Mortality Database for deaths from excessive heat and cold. And this database indicates that on average twice as many people die from excessive cold than excessive heat.
Additional References
Ashley,W.S., and Gilson, C.W. 2009. A Reassessment of U.S. lightning mortality. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi: 10.1175/2009BAMS2765.1.
Borden, K.A., and Cutter, S.L. 2008. Spatial patterns of natural hazards mortality in the United States. International Journal of Health Geographics, doi:10.1186/1476-072X-7-64.
Deschenes, O., Moretti, E. 2009. Extreme Weather Events, Mortality and Migration. Review of Economics and Statistics 91(4): 659–681.
Dixon, P.G., Brommer, D.M., Hedquist, B.C., Kalkstein, A.J., Goodrich, G.B., Walter, J.C., Dickerson, C.C., Penny, S.J., and Cerveny, R.S.. 2005: Heat mortality versus cold mortality: A study of conflicting databases in the United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 937–943.
Goklany, I.M. 1999. Richer is More Resilient: Dealing With Climate Change and More Urgent Environmental Problems. In: Bailey, R., ed. Earth Report 2000, Revisiting the True State of the Planet. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill, pp. 155-187.
Goklany, I.M. 2007. The Improving State of the World: Why We’re Living Longer, Healthier, More Comfortable Lives on a Cleaner Planet. Washington, DC: Cato Institute: 167.
Goklany, I.M. 2009. Deaths and Death Rates from Extreme Weather Events: 1900-2008. Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons 14 (4): 102-09.
Goklany, I.M., and Straja, S.R. 2000. “U.S. Death Rates due to Extreme Heat and Cold Ascribed to Weather, 1979-1997.” Technology 7S: 165-173.
Thacker, M.T.F., Lee, R., Sabogal, R.I., and Henderson, A. 2008. Overview of deaths associated with natural events, United States, 1979–2004. Disasters 2008, 32(2):303-315.
US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). 2009. Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press.
Where is the attached paper?
Once it becomes fashionable to cook the numbers to support a political agenda, there’s no limit to what you can do.
U.S. Average Daily Death by Month
It has been recognized for many years that in cold climate areas like the northern half of the nation that cold weather has the high death rate especially with the elderly and small children.
Lets have a little sanity here. A lot more poor people lack air conditioning in hot climates than lack heat in cold climates.
Heat is not an optional extra, it is a necessity in a cold climate. No heat, you die. Air conditioning on the other hand is a luxury that you can survive without, providing you are healthy.
Steve Case says:
June 2, 2014 at 6:47 pm
U.S. Average Daily Death by Month
It is quite obvious that cold in the US not heat kills more people.
peter says:
June 2, 2014 at 6:53 pm
Lets have a little sanity here. A lot more poor people lack air conditioning in hot climates than lack heat in cold climates.
Heat is not an optional extra, it is a necessity in a cold climate. No heat, you die. Air conditioning on the other hand is a luxury that you can survive without, providing you are healthy.
Quite obviously Peter you make a point that we could use a warmer climate as cold is harder to deal with than the heat.
Water supply, in heat it get’s used too much, in freezing it bursts pipes and freezes. Electricity supplies are strained either way.- Prolonged cold or hot weather can effect all living creatures if they don’t have electricity and incapable of keeping warm or cool. However indigenous folk seem to be able to cope with it and adapt. What did they say in the British Raj, ‘Only mad dogs and English men go out in the midday sun.”
If you had to make a choice, would you rather sweat or shiver?
Neither, ossqss. But I guess sweat so long as I have head cover and plenty of water to drink. Cold weather stresses you blood sugar supply and you use more up to keep warm. I thought one of the first lessons humans learned was to adapt to the weather changes.
Dr. Indur Goklany, thank you for supplying the data source and the explanation of the behind the curtain differences of various data collections. This helps Mr and Mrs average “thinking person” to actually make our own informed comparison, rather than just simply accepting without question the media outlet spin and bias in the re-telling that goes on these days. Your input and expertise is one reason that I like to come to this site and be happy to refer others to look and learn.
It is so hard to get through media bias and propaganda particularly here in Australia, where our traditional sources have been largely captured by a one sided propaganda biased to the meme of catastrophic warming to achieve ever higher taxation, social control and regulation, even to the extent of trying to censor truth, and now by hysterical tone, remove or frustrate the aims of the newly elected government that does not agree with their extreme left wing agenda.
Truth, facts, good collection and use of data and encouragement of the examination of scientific theories sure beats assertion and propaganda. Thank you for your informative response.
Not being able to pay for air conditioning in the summer time is an inconvenience. You can get by with fans. As a long time resident of St. Louis, I know that fans save lives in heat emergencies.
Not being able to pay for heat in the winter is deadly. Many a time, there have been news reports of elderly people found frozen in their beds or found alive but frozen to the bed.
Alice and I frequently enjoy a week or more in non-air conditioned rustic huts in very hot places, such as Peleliu, and I lived four years on Oahu (Hickam Air Force Base) without air conditioning. Open windows, and a small electrical fan occasionally, are all that is needed in a hot climate. I also did Air Force Basic Training, and six years later Officer Training School, at Lackland AFB, San Antonio, Texas during the middle of summer each time, plus summers in Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Turkey, Korea, and The Philippines without air conditioning. I not only survived, I thrived! However, I can think of a lot of winters that were quite miserable since the heating systems in old military buildings often leave a lot to be desired. I probably couldn’t survive the cold now that I did in my younger days, and cold is far more uncomfortable and difficult to endure than heat. On a hot day, find shade, drink lots of water, wear light clothing, and take it easy and wait for the cooler evening. When it’s cold, layer clothing, stay in a heated area, and avoid windy places or becoming sweaty from too much activity. And really bundle up at night, because the cold then is worse when you’re trying to rest and you can’t get warm. I’m afraid that there are a lot of young “hothouse plant” academics who haven’t found themselves living on the edge in hot and cold places. It’s a pity that we don’t have universal military service, because reality provides a rich learning experience.
I have WORKED in summer Desert and Tundra WINTER. The heat is a discomfort and requires more water. The cold is DEADLY and can maim and kill in a short time. Humans evolved in the hot parts of the world, they have adapted to the cold ones. Just Who is so stupid as to prefer cold? pg
Dr. Goklany,
How do these data sources treat the casualty rate of undocumented immigrants on the southern US border? There are a considerable number of these; I just looked at a study which attributed something like 60% to hot weather. If these cases are included, it would tilt the results toward hot weather, even though the underlying causes are economic and political, rather than climate itself.
The “excess deaths from heat” nonsense has got to be the biggest crock of the whole global warming scam, even more stupid than ocean “acidification”.
Humans evolved in the hottest climate on Earth – we’re one of the few species in the world which sweats, and which can operate continuously at high efficiency on the scorching savannah or steaming jungles.
In every environment except our native environment, we have to wear clothes, to stay warm.
I live in a part of the world which hits 35c (95F) at high humidity for pretty much the whole summer. At these temperatures, pets, dogs and cats, especially if they have a lot of fur, need special attention – but humans are just fine, so long as they remember a simple rule – if you are too hot, remove some clothing.
I have a simple test for the AZ researchers, we will put them out in the Arizona desert this time of year in a pair of shorts, with plenty of water. There is no chance they will die. I will put them in the north woods in January I will pick a below zero weather make no matches in a pair of shorts yet plenty of water, They would not last and much more than hour. If they want to stick to their claim heat kills more people I suggest they take my test. It would fix two problems at once falsify there guess, and eliminate some idiots or basic dishonest people from the face of the earth. If they are not willing to take the test that will also falsify their guess.
John Slayton the telling think is how people will chance crossing rugged terrain in the heat, yet you will find few takers crossing rugged terrain in extreme cold. Human are less afraid of heat than cold. To survive heat all you need is enough water, to survive cold you need optimal clothing and some kind of heat source. Most people would never contemplate a trek across a wilderness in extreme cold. Have been out in 110 plus heat and -20 degree cold I will take the heat any time. Yes I have come sloe to over heating more than one, But I have always choose to hike in the heat near permanent water, on other time sought shade and drank the ample water I had. Out in -20 frost bit both ears even though I started a fire. Also was dressed for it yet could not stand more than four hours in it. If you were to break a leg in such and environment you would be dead, even in a forest are you would not be able to gather enough wood to keep warm long enough. Many hunter end up dead in the mountains because they got lost and could not find their way out, The funny thing about hypothermia is the southern 48 have move deaths from it than the northern 48, it called cotton kills.
Those poor warmists. They just can’t get a break on the data, can they?
Seriously, it seems to me that the warmist claims have become dramatically more outlandish in recent months. And dramatically less fact based. One after another has been demolished on a brief examination of some hard data..Public skepticism in clearly on the rise in many places around the world. Recent developments in Australia, Canada, the Farage landslide in the UK and more have created an interesting backdrop as the USA heads into an election year in 2016.
Employment, earning and GDP remain firmly in the doldrums. Incumbent political operators are getting increasingly nervous and I think desperate.
Reblogged this on gottadobetterthanthis and commented:
Thank you, Dr. Goklany. Yes, it is easily proven by simply paying attention. Many more people die from cold, especially when accompanied by heavy snow or ice and power outage. Further, heat wave related deaths tend to drop the average death rate in the area for weeks after the event, since heat tends to hasten the death of those who are already dying. However, the average death rate does not drop after cold spells, because cold is an equal opportunity killer. Heat mostly kills the careless and the those who planned improperly. Cold tends to kill even the prepared because there is so little margin for error.
Cold kills. Warmer is better.
I always wanted to have an explanation why some people move to Alaska after retirement and not Florida. That must be it, or …..
Mark Luhman says:
I have a simple test for the AZ researchers, we will put them out in the Arizona desert this time of year in a pair of shorts, with plenty of water. There is no chance they will die.
Would that it were true. As reported in the NYTimes in May of last year (my bold):
In the Pima County Medical Examiner’s Office here…774 sets of remains awaited identification in mid-May, stored in musty body bags coated in dust.
…
There were 463 deaths in the past fiscal year, which ended Sept. 30 — the equivalent of about five migrants dying every four days, according to an analysis by the Washington Office on Latin America…. In the time federal statistics have been compiled, only 2005 had more deaths….
…
In Tucson, the medical examiner’s office, which handles autopsies for the border counties in the Tucson sector — three of Arizona’s four border counties — received 49 sets of remains from Jan. 1 to May 9….
….
Early this month, the office unveiled a computerized mapping database bearing the records of 1,826 migrants who died in the desert, listing GPS coordinates for where they were found and, if known, their sex, age and cause of death…Combined, the hundreds of red dots that represent people who died of exposure to the intense desert heat and cold, by far the most common among the causes of death, look like an unshapely bruise.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/21/us/immigrant-death-rate-rises-on-illegal-crossings.html?_r=0
for what it’s worth:
29 May: Fox News: 60,000 Cattle dead in Bolivia cold wave
The Cattle Raisers Federation in the northeastern Bolivian province of Beni reported Thursday that at least 60,000 head of livestock have died due to the cold wave that has beset the Andean nation for a week…
Arteaga said that the ranchers were still recovering from the damage caused by the rains, when they were surprised by the low temperatures, which worsened their situation even more.
The cold wave, which has brought low temperatures of minus 16 C (3 F) in some parts of the country, last week resulted in five fatalities due to hypothermia in Bolivia, two of them in the eastern province of Santa Cruz and three in the Andean regions of La Paz and Potosi.
http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2014/05/29/60000-cattle-dead-in-bolivia-cold-wave/
Well, that is the problem with illegal aliens.
they are – basically – illegal and are NOT controlled nor in places of safety from either hot nor cold. They ARE sources of easily controlled voting populations, and therefore ARE being encouraged to enter the US at all possible speed by every possible door, hole, and fence post.
The Canadian “civilized” Mounted Police in environments equally dangerous 116 years ago very, very carefully regulated every miner (no minors!) who tried to cross the passes and the rivers from Alaska. You HAD TO HAVE the right food, water, supplies, clothing, and preparations. or you were denied entry.
And, of course, we have 24,000 who died last winter in the UK.
5,000 in one month alone this spring.
June 2, 2014 at 8:58 pm | Eric Worrall says:
Ah Ha! Eric, that accounts for all of those strange people up Maryborough way in summer 😉