Sea Ice News Volume 5 #2 – NOAA forecasts above normal Arctic ice extent for summer 2014

Thank you for this coverage, it *could get interesting* this next winter if sea ice has normalized and we have another cooler than average winter in the majority of the North American continent.
My only question is when does the Cali drought crack? Its getting hot and dusty again with out any real rain… again.

NOAA forecasts above normal Arctic ice extent for summer 2014

Professor Peter ‘hot head’ Wadhams is right on track for his ice-free Arctic ocean I see. I can’t help thinking whether he will be just like Dr. David Viner. It will be so sad to see such an esteemed Arctic specialist being ridiculed mercilessly in the years to come. I can understand if he just made a prediction once, but he kept going on and on about it.

Daily Telegraph – 8 November 2011
Arctic sea ice ‘to melt by 2015’
Prof Wadhams said: “His [model] is the most extreme but he is also the best modeller around.
“It is really showing the fall-off in ice volume is so fast that it is going to bring us to zero very quickly. 2015 is a very serious prediction and I think I am pretty much persuaded that that’s when it will happen.”
——-
Guardian – 17 September 2012
Arctic expert predicts final collapse of sea ice within four years
“This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates”.
——-
Financial Times Magazine – 2 August 2013
“It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,”
——-
The Scotsman – 12 September 2013
Arctic sea ice will vanish within three years, says expert
“The entire ice cover is now on the point of collapse.
“The extra open water already created by the retreating ice allows bigger waves to be generated by storms, which are sweeping away the surviving ice. It is truly the case that it will be all gone by 2015. The consequences are enormous and represent a huge boost to global warming.”
——-
Guardian – 17 September 2012
“This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates“.
[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]
——-
Arctic News – June 27, 2012
My own view of what will happen is: 1. Summer sea ice disappears, except perhaps for small multiyear remnant north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island, by 2015-16. 2. By 2020 the ice free season lasts at least a month and by 2030 has extended to 3 months…..

I am waiting Peter Wadhams. 2 years and 4 months to go – at most.

Gunga Din says:
May 23, 2014 at 4:13 pm
The “missing heat” is hiding (and very well) in the ice?
Time to move the goal post!
(Or maybe time to re-post the predictions about what the Arctic ice would do because of CAGW?)

Here are a few with some having attached caveats. If there is no ice free Arctic by September 2020 then there will be a lot of blushes.

Xinhua News Agency – 1 March 2008
“If Norway’s average temperature this year equals that in 2007, the ice cap in the Arctic will all melt away, which is highly possible judging from current conditions,” Orheim said.
[Dr. Olav Orheim – Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat]
__________________
Canada.com – 16 November 2007
“According to these models, there will be no sea ice left in the summer in the Arctic Ocean somewhere between 2010 and 2015.
“And it’s probably going to happen even faster than that,” said Fortier,””
[Professor Louis Fortier – Université Laval, Director ArcticNet]
__________________
National Geographic – 12 December 2007
“NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.” ”
[Dr. Jay Zwally – NASA]
__________________
BBC – 12 December 2007
“Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,”…….”So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”
[Professor Wieslaw Maslowski]
__________________
National Snow and Ice Data Center – 5 May 2008
“Could the North Pole be ice free this melt season? Given that this region is currently covered with first-year ice, that seems quite possible.”
__________________
National Geographic News – 20 June 2008
North Pole May Be Ice-Free for First Time This Summer
“We’re actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time [in history],” David Barber, of the University of Manitoba, told National Geographic News aboard the C.C.G.S. Amundsen, a Canadian research icebreaker.
[Dr. David Barber]
__________________
Independent – 27 June 2008
Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at North Pole this summer
“…..It is quite likely that the North Pole will be exposed this summer – it’s not happened before,” Professor Wadhams said.”
[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]
__________________
Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment Report – 2009
“…There is a possibility of an ice-free Arctic Ocean for a short period in summer perhaps as early as 2015. This would mean the disappearance of multi-year ice, as no sea ice would survive the summer melt season….”
http://www.arctis-search.com/Arctic+Marine+Shipping+Assessment+%28AMSA%29
__________________
Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences
Vol. 40: 625-654 – May 2012
The Future of Arctic Sea Ice
“…..one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of seasonal sea ice cover…..”
[Professor Wieslaw Maslowski]
__________________
Guardian – 11 August 2012
“Very soon we may experience the iconic moment when, one day in the summer, we look at satellite images and see no sea ice coverage in the Arctic, just open water.”
[Dr Seymour Laxon – Centre for Polar Observation & Modelling – UCL]
__________________
Yale Environment360 – 30 August 2012
“If this rate of melting [in 2012] is sustained in 2013, we are staring down the barrel and looking at a summer Arctic which is potentially free of sea ice within this decade,”
[Dr. Mark Drinkwater]
__________________
Guardian – 17 September 2012
“This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates“.
[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]
__________________
Sierra Club – March 23, 2013
“For the record—I do not think that any sea ice will survive this summer. An event unprecedented in human history is today, this very moment, transpiring in the Arctic Ocean….”
[Paul Beckwith – PhD student paleoclimatology and climatology – part-time professor]
__________________
Financial Times Magazine – 2 August 2013
“It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,”
[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]
__________________
The Scotsman – 12 September 2013
“The entire ice cover is now on the point of collapse.
…….It is truly the case that it will be all gone by 2015. The consequences are enormous and represent a huge boost to global warming.”
[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]

You may have seen comments about the North Pole being ice free for the first time. This is BS of the highest order – a complete and utter fabrication.

Thin, rotten ice above normal ?

More than likely, the Arctic was ice free in the summer, circa AD 1,000 given the trading posts built by the Vikings so far north.

Learning from Wall Street. Set an easy target then celebrate beating it.
Does anyone else see a cosine wave with advancing start angle when they look at the arctic ice graphs? It looks to me like the bottom (pi) shifts left for an earlier min and an earlier recovery.

If they are guessing that it will be above anomaly September + 2 months 2014 my bet its going to stay that way and go considerably higher next NH winter…2015 and stay there. Thats when AGW will really be impossible to defend on ice melt ect….
.

Of course they might change the baseline AGAIN…. LOL

Oh, the wizards of BS