Forensic science reports more deaths in Australia than Sweden due to cold

The consensus (dare I say 97%?) of the literature on temperature events is that cold events increases mortality, while warm events displaces mortality.
Displaced mortality means that while mortality increases during the event, mortality decreases after, giving roughly the same rate over the entire period.
Cold events, on the other hand, increases the rate both during and after the event, giving an elevated mortality rate over the period.
This holds true even in places like Spain, Israel and California, where a cold event can be defined as a temperature as high as 10 deg C.

Cold kills. Pollution, not so much.
Multivariate analysis showed that only temperature was significantly correlated with AMI, which increased by 7% for each 10°C decrease in minimal temperature (odds ratio [OR]=1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.04-1.11), and that there was no significant effect of air pollution (OR=1.01, 95%CI=1.00-1.02).”

http://medicalxpress.com/news/2013-09-cold-weather-heart.html

Do the hypothermia deaths correlate with Carbon Taxes?
Just ask’in.

These researchers say their results:

“”point to widely different impacts of cold and hot temperatures on mortality.””
“”hot temperature shocks are indeed associated with a large and immediate spike in mortality in the days of the heat wave,””
“”almost all of this excess mortality is explained by near-term displacement,””
“”in the weeks that follow a heat wave, we find a marked decline in mortality hazard, which completely offsets the increase during the days of the heat wave,””
“”there is virtually no lasting impact of heat waves on mortality.””
My emphasis.
In the cold, they found:

“”an immediate spike in mortality in the days of the cold wave,””
“”there is no offsetting decline in the weeks that follow,””
“”the cumulative effect of one day of extreme cold temperature during a thirty-day window is an increase in daily mortality by as much as 10%.””
“”this impact of cold weather on mortality is significantly larger for females than for males,””
“”for both genders, the effect is mostly attributable to increased mortality due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases.””
Further:

“”the aggregate magnitude of the impact of extreme cold on mortality in the United States is large,””
“”roughly corresponds to 0.8% of average annual deaths in the United States during the sample period.””
“”the average person who died because of cold temperature exposure lost in excess of ten years of potential life…””
While heat related fatalities lost a few days or week of potential life.
Further:
“”each year 4,600 deaths are delayed by the changing exposure to cold temperature due to mobility,””
“”3% to 7% of the gains in longevity experienced by the U.S. population over the past three decades are due to the secular movement toward warmer states in the West and the South, away from the colder states in the North.””
Reference
Deschenes, O. and Moretti, E. 2009. Extreme weather events, mortality, and migration. The Review of Economics and Statistics 91:659-681.
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V12/N47/EDITb.php

Mortality Studies
Alberdi, J.C., Diaz, J., Montero, J.C. and Miron, I.  1998.  Daily mortality in Madrid community 1986-1992: relationship with meteorological variables.  European Journal of Epidemiology 14: 571-578.
Behar, S.  2000.  Out-of-hospital death in Israel – Should we blame the weather?  Israel Medical Association Journal 2: 56-57.
Eng, H. and Mercer, J.B.  1998.  Seasonal variations in mortality caused by cardiovascular diseases in Norway and Ireland.  Journal of Cardiovascular Risk 5: 89-95.
Feigin, V.L., Nikitin, Yu.P., Bots, M.L., Vinogradova, T.E. and Grobbee, D.E.  2000.  A population-based study of the associations of stroke occurrence with weather parameters in Siberia, Russia (1982-92).  European Journal of Neurology 7: 171-178.
Goklany, I.M. and Straja, S.R.  2000.  U.S. trends in crude death rates due to extreme heat and cold ascribed to weather, 1979-97.  Technology 7S:165-173.
Huynen, M.M.T.E., Martens, P., Schram, D., Weijenberg, M.P. and Kunst, A.E.  2001.  The impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality rates in the Dutch population.  Environmental Health Perspectives 109: 463-470.
Keatinge, W.R., Donaldson, G.C., Cordioli, E., Martinelli, M., Kunst, A.E., Mackenbach, J.P., Nayha, S. and Vuori, I.  2000.  Heat related mortality in warm and cold regions of Europe: Observational study.  British Medical Journal 321: 670-673.
Kloner, R.A., Poole, W.K. and Perritt, R.L.  1999.  When throughout the year is coronary death most likely to occur?  A 12-year population-based analysis of more than 220,000 cases.  Circulation 100: 1630-1634.
Kunst, A.E., Looman, W.N.C. and Mackenbach, J.P.  1993.  Outdoor temperature and mortality in the Netherlands: a time-series analysis.  American Journal of Epidemiology 137: 331-341.
Martens, P. and Huynen, M.  2001.  Will global climate change reduce thermal stress in the Netherlands?  Epidemiology 12: 753-754.
Rooney, C., McMichael, A.J., Kovats, R.S. and Coleman, M.P.  1998.  Excess mortality in England and Wales, and in greater London, during the 1995 heatwave.  Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 52: 482-486.

ghl says:
February 12, 2014 at 11:40 am
South Australia has the most wind farms and the most expensive electricity of all australian states.
*
This is our understanding of it also. We’re looking at retiring in early 2016 and moving deeper into the country. We have ruled out South Australia as a place to go for being the most Green state with strict idiotic environmental laws (such as no burning off around your house before Summer hits). I’m sure all that will change. Currently, though, South Australia is out, and so is Tasmania for being heavily under the Green thumb, too.

…they just said that south Australians do not drink enough

I can hear the Warmunists now,
“There’s your proof Climate Deniers, the climate warms causing more extreme cold events, the cold events eliminate climate deniers causing a net drop in human CO2 production, CO2 decreases (doesn’r rise as fast) and the world suffers less. Nature fights back to self correct.” /sarc

“There were 58 deaths caused by the heat of sauna. Seventy-five persons died of cold.”
Ofiicial statistic from Finland, land of the very hot sauna.
http://www.stat.fi/til/ksyyt/2012/ksyyt_2012_2013-12-30_kat_005_en.html

Box of Rocks says: @ February 12, 2014 at 12:14 pm
…Not only is it fuel poverty it is the poverty imposed on by the elites – period.
I never did understand social security here in the states, The attitude is here is money now go away old people…
Old ladies dying due to cold to me is a crime against humanity.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Fitchburg MA had a nasty episode back in the early 1990’s.
MA had a bad winter, blizzards cold… A businessman in Fitchburg donated an empty warehouse which the local churches outfitted with beds etc. to get the homeless off the streets into some place warm. Social services and the town shut them down. The homeless were kicked out and died in droves… This in the state that is the home of the foremost Marxist scholars in the world (Quote from a communist buddy – he helps run Bread and Circuses)
That episode still leaves a nasty taste.

International medical comparisons are fraught with the difficulty/impossibility of checking that diagnostic criteria are near-enough identical. So I say “Pah!”, though I must admit that I haven’t lived in Sweden.

ghl said @ February 12, 2014 at 11:40 am

South Australia has the most wind farms and the most expensive electricity of all australian states.

The Gits’ electrickery bill for the last quarter was $512.06 for 1,492 kWh (95 days). In SA it would have been $531.79, but you get an 11% discount for paying before due, or $473.29. So here in Tasmania it cost us $5.39/day compared to SA where the same consumption would have cost us $4.98/day. What makes you think $4.98 is more than $5.39? When The Git went to school $5.39 was 28% greater than $4.98!

Jimbo said @ February 12, 2014 at 1:23 pm

Small nit pick triple glazing is common in many homes Sweden and Norway.

Double-glazing is more than good enough in most of Australia. The Git’s world-famous House of Steel is double-glazed, super-sealed and well-insulated. That’s why our electrickery consumption is less than for a small one-person household even though it’s a medium-sized, two-person household.

Can’t say I saw that one coming…

“The study, by a team from the University’s School of Medical Sciences, analyzed forensic cases of hypothermia deaths from 2006-2011 in both South Australia and Sweden.”
The timing of this study just happens to be when electricity prices almost doubled in South Australia. Little wonder their are more deaths. Little old ladies on fixed incomes would find it difficult to afford those increases, cut back on their heating. Refer to the last graph on the link.
http://eyesonbrowne.wordpress.com/2013/08/18/why-we-have-to-pay-so-much-for-electricity/

It really isn’t all that surprising, the people in Sweden are used to dealing with cold and houses are built with the cold in mind.
Here in the states, everytime it gets cold, there are always messages going out to check on elderly neighbors to make sure they are alright. I’m sure something similar happens in Sweden as well.

Eric Worrall said @ February 12, 2014 at 2:40 pm

Try to sleep overnight in the cool southern states, in any Aussie house built in the 1930s and you will freeze your nuts off. Why? Because houses built in the 1930s were designed for a much warmer climate.

Don’t forget the cheapest form of insulation back then was firewood. In Sunbury, Victoria in 1965 my dad’s false teeth froze in the mug he’d put them in to soak. That never happened in UKLand even during The Big Freeze in 1962/3.
My neighbour Porky Hay used to sleep on the verandah year round because he said it was too hot to sleep indoors. Temperatures occasionally dip to -5°C here in Southern Tasmania. I never saw Porky wearing anything other than a blue singlet to keep his trunk warm even on the coldest days. How he managed cutting cane in Queensland I’ll never know.

““Most of the deaths from hypothermia in South Australia involved elderly women indoors who were living alone, often with multiple underlying illnesses and limited contact with the outside world. Many of them had been dead for at least a day before they were discovered,” Professor Byard says.”
Whether or not it’s because houses, etc. were not built with enough insulation, one thing this makes me think of (in this time of the Beatles’ 50th anniversary or whatever), is Eleanor Rigby. Note that they speak of “elderly women…living alone….limited contact”.
Folks, whether it’s family or not, if you know someone who’s alone or mostly alone, give them a call now and then, see if they’re warm (or cool in the summer), and OK.
You might very well save someone’s life…

Well I’m not sure of this. My house is brick and tile, on a concrete slab, and with roof insulation.
But although I have ducted oil heating, I refuse to use it. But we use the winter sun to warm rooms and have just a few small electric fires if it gets very cold. Mainly only for guests who come from Queensland and Sydney. My son and I don warm clothes, and my whippet has a sheepskin coat for winter indoors. As we live on the Northern Tablelands of NSW, our temps are cooler and colder than Tamworth down the hill. At present my thermometer is registering 27 C inside and we have the back door open. In winter the same room drops to sometimes 8 C at night and I have to watch the welfare of my bonsai and indoor plants.But generally it stays around 12 C sometimes when no sun 10C. But we have acclimatized and are not ‘hot house flowers’ . SA is a hot and humid state but we are on a plateau 3,500 ft above sea level in parts, sometimes higher further north of the region. We occasionally get snow but we haven’t seen that for some years other than a shower of it or two. But I will admit some of our pensioners go to bed with an electric blanket to watch TV in winter, as they can’t afford heating. But generally we have welfare groups that will keep an eye on them, I recall that Sweden has very cold weather but their houses have central heating and a friend has just been to UK and Europe and said, it was not too cold, as all buildings and buses etc., are warm. So horses for courses, I have been lobbying for heating subsidies like in UK for pensioners but no avail yet, as only some parts of Australia get minus C in winter. PS. Even though it is hot here and very dry, I sometimes still put my electric blanket on at night. Because after sunset the temps do drop to sometimes 10C even in the summer because of our elevation.

Why is that a surprise in the United States the majority of hypothermia deaths come from the southern states not the northern. That been know for years, yes I was surprised when i first heard about it but as I though about it it mad perfect sense. To coin the phrase cotton the silent killer, I only had to wear my cotton thermals once after using polypropylene ice fishing to permanently retire the cotton thermals.

Gail Combs says:
February 12, 2014 at 12:52 pm
“I never did understand social security here in the states,”
Social Security became law August 1935. The great reference source, Wikipedia, says “an attempt to limit what were seen as dangers in the modern American life, including old age, poverty, unemployment, and the burdens of widows and fatherless children.”
I heard stories on my Mama’s knee; like seen here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=lHdXQAQHjd8

I recall that Sweden has very cold weather but their houses have central heating and a friend has just been to UK and Europe and said, it was not too cold, as all buildings and buses etc., are warm.
In Sweden we also have proper isolation in our houses, for the moment we are even experiment with houses that does not need any heating and still hold around 18 deg C in the winter. UK on the other hand is cold, damn I cannot even stand London.

As I cautioned a commenter a few days ago, it is less adapted and prepared warm climate residents most subject to hypothermia. The much bandied-about excess elderly winter deaths are more like 6K in the UK, not 32K. As I noted, Brits and Germans are far harder to kill with cold than, e.g., Algerians. Like fish, given time humans can adapt to extremes. E.g., the original Tierra del Fuego natives (just n. of Cape Horn), who lacked clothing materials, and housing, and survived winters far below freezing.

Have they looked at Russia? Very cold and lots of vodka.

Of course our carbon tax which the Greens and ALP seem to want to cling onto so badly that is affecting power & gas prices making them exhorbitantly high and thereby causing vulnerable people such as the poor and elderly not to be able to afford sufficient heating would have no bearing on these results.

Why do the Bedouin have black tents, not because it gets bleedin’ hot in the desert, but to protect them from the cold nights. No clouds to keep them warm at night.