From the University of Adelaide , something nobody would have ever guessed.
Australian state has higher rate of hypothermia deaths than Sweden
Social isolation, lack of housing insulation are contributing factors
New research from the University of Adelaide shows that the state of South Australia has a higher rate of deaths from extreme cold compared with the northern European nation of Sweden.
The study, by a team from the University’s School of Medical Sciences, analyzed forensic cases of hypothermia deaths from 2006-2011 in both South Australia and Sweden.
The results show that South Australia had a rate of 3.9 deaths for every 100,000 people, compared with Sweden’s 3.3 deaths per 100,000. In total, there were 62 fatal cases of hypothermia in South Australia and 296 cases in Sweden over the six-year period.
“Despite considerable demographic, geographic and climate differences, the death rate from hypothermia was slightly higher in South Australia than in Sweden, which is a very surprising result,” says the leader of the project, the University’s Professor Roger Byard AO.
Hypothermia is defined as a decrease in core body temperature below 35°C, with fatal hypothermia occurring at body temperatures of 26°C to 29°C.
“Most of the deaths from hypothermia in South Australia involved elderly women indoors who were living alone, often with multiple underlying illnesses and limited contact with the outside world. Many of them had been dead for at least a day before they were discovered,” Professor Byard says.
“This is in contrast with the majority of hypothermia deaths in Sweden, which usually occur outdoors and involve middle-aged males, commonly under the influence of alcohol. These bodies are often uncovered from snow drifts.
“The fact that South Australia has a much warmer climate than Sweden, with higher average temperatures and milder winters, does not stop people from being at risk of death from hypothermia. Elderly, socially isolated people are at greatest risk in this state,” Professor Byard says.
Medical Sciences PhD student Fiona Bright says descriptions of the houses were not available in the South Australian cases, so the reasons for the higher rates of indoor deaths in SA can only be speculated on.
“In addition to the many underlying medical conditions involved in these cases, it’s likely that poor heating and insulation, and lack of energy efficiency, are playing a role here. For example, only 2.6% of Australian homes have double-glazed windows compared with 100% of homes in Finland and Sweden,” Ms Bright says.
The results of this research will be published in the Journal of Forensic Sciences later this year.
The consensus (dare I say 97%?) of the literature on temperature events is that cold events increases mortality, while warm events displaces mortality.
Displaced mortality means that while mortality increases during the event, mortality decreases after, giving roughly the same rate over the entire period.
Cold events, on the other hand, increases the rate both during and after the event, giving an elevated mortality rate over the period.
This holds true even in places like Spain, Israel and California, where a cold event can be defined as a temperature as high as 10 deg C.
I’m not surprised at all. Swedes have more experience culturally with cold and most cases of hypothermia result from foolish behavior. Control for that and South Australia would rank even higher.
Cold kills. Pollution, not so much.
Multivariate analysis showed that only temperature was significantly correlated with AMI, which increased by 7% for each 10°C decrease in minimal temperature (odds ratio [OR]=1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.04-1.11), and that there was no significant effect of air pollution (OR=1.01, 95%CI=1.00-1.02).”
http://medicalxpress.com/news/2013-09-cold-weather-heart.html
Even in Africa (Naurobi), cold has a higher mortality.
“”Overall, there are seasonal fluctuations in mortality, with the highest rates of death occurring during periods of relative cold.”” “”mortality risk over the year rises from the lowest mortality risk by about 40% in the 0-4 age group and by about 20% for all ages”” in response to a drop in temperature. “”the effects of low temperatures on mortality can last for days.”” And they add that “”although the world will get warmer in the future, the low temperature-related mortality is likely to remain an important concern.””
Egondi, T., Kyobutungi, C., Kovats, S., Muindi, K., Ettarh, R. and Rocklov, J. 2012. Time-series analysis of weather and mortality patterns in Nairobi’s informal settlements. Global Health Action 5: 23-31.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/may/7may2013a1.html
Do the hypothermia deaths correlate with Carbon Taxes?
Just ask’in.
Excess Mortality in the UK was 40,000, in the winter of 08-09. For every 1 degree C below 18 deg C, mortality increases 1.5%.
Also a mention on heat related deaths, and how they are “”displaced”” mortality. Cold increases the mortality rate during and after the cold event. Mortality increases during a heat event, but falls afterward.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/8442413.stm
These researchers say their results:
“”point to widely different impacts of cold and hot temperatures on mortality.””
“”hot temperature shocks are indeed associated with a large and immediate spike in mortality in the days of the heat wave,””
“”almost all of this excess mortality is explained by near-term displacement,””
“”in the weeks that follow a heat wave, we find a marked decline in mortality hazard, which completely offsets the increase during the days of the heat wave,””
“”there is virtually no lasting impact of heat waves on mortality.””
My emphasis.
In the cold, they found:
“”an immediate spike in mortality in the days of the cold wave,””
“”there is no offsetting decline in the weeks that follow,””
“”the cumulative effect of one day of extreme cold temperature during a thirty-day window is an increase in daily mortality by as much as 10%.””
“”this impact of cold weather on mortality is significantly larger for females than for males,””
“”for both genders, the effect is mostly attributable to increased mortality due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases.””
Further:
“”the aggregate magnitude of the impact of extreme cold on mortality in the United States is large,””
“”roughly corresponds to 0.8% of average annual deaths in the United States during the sample period.””
“”the average person who died because of cold temperature exposure lost in excess of ten years of potential life…””
While heat related fatalities lost a few days or week of potential life.
Further:
“”each year 4,600 deaths are delayed by the changing exposure to cold temperature due to mobility,””
“”3% to 7% of the gains in longevity experienced by the U.S. population over the past three decades are due to the secular movement toward warmer states in the West and the South, away from the colder states in the North.””
Reference
Deschenes, O. and Moretti, E. 2009. Extreme weather events, mortality, and migration. The Review of Economics and Statistics 91:659-681.
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V12/N47/EDITb.php
Bu-bu-but! They just had their “hottest” year on record!
On a serious note. Man can survive cold (thrive is a different issue). It does take preparedness however. That is why another glacial period would be more deadly than the mild temperatures we have experienced. But that does not fit the alarmist meme.
Mortality Studies
Alberdi, J.C., Diaz, J., Montero, J.C. and Miron, I. 1998. Daily mortality in Madrid community 1986-1992: relationship with meteorological variables. European Journal of Epidemiology 14: 571-578.
Behar, S. 2000. Out-of-hospital death in Israel – Should we blame the weather? Israel Medical Association Journal 2: 56-57.
Eng, H. and Mercer, J.B. 1998. Seasonal variations in mortality caused by cardiovascular diseases in Norway and Ireland. Journal of Cardiovascular Risk 5: 89-95.
Feigin, V.L., Nikitin, Yu.P., Bots, M.L., Vinogradova, T.E. and Grobbee, D.E. 2000. A population-based study of the associations of stroke occurrence with weather parameters in Siberia, Russia (1982-92). European Journal of Neurology 7: 171-178.
Goklany, I.M. and Straja, S.R. 2000. U.S. trends in crude death rates due to extreme heat and cold ascribed to weather, 1979-97. Technology 7S:165-173.
Huynen, M.M.T.E., Martens, P., Schram, D., Weijenberg, M.P. and Kunst, A.E. 2001. The impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality rates in the Dutch population. Environmental Health Perspectives 109: 463-470.
Keatinge, W.R., Donaldson, G.C., Cordioli, E., Martinelli, M., Kunst, A.E., Mackenbach, J.P., Nayha, S. and Vuori, I. 2000. Heat related mortality in warm and cold regions of Europe: Observational study. British Medical Journal 321: 670-673.
Kloner, R.A., Poole, W.K. and Perritt, R.L. 1999. When throughout the year is coronary death most likely to occur? A 12-year population-based analysis of more than 220,000 cases. Circulation 100: 1630-1634.
Kunst, A.E., Looman, W.N.C. and Mackenbach, J.P. 1993. Outdoor temperature and mortality in the Netherlands: a time-series analysis. American Journal of Epidemiology 137: 331-341.
Martens, P. and Huynen, M. 2001. Will global climate change reduce thermal stress in the Netherlands? Epidemiology 12: 753-754.
Rooney, C., McMichael, A.J., Kovats, R.S. and Coleman, M.P. 1998. Excess mortality in England and Wales, and in greater London, during the 1995 heatwave. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 52: 482-486.
I’ve lived in rural South Australia. The houses are old with little or no insulation. Many are almost ruins, which is why they are so cheap. Also, most houses here are designed with Summer in mind, with ample shading, which backfires in Winter. My mother, who came to Australia as a young woman, always said she was far colder in Australia than she was in England or Canada.
It’s clear, though, that the Swedish men have a culturally sophisticated approach to cold amelioration, in that they apparently had liberally applied anti-freeze before succumbing.
More seriously, one wonders whether the incidence of hypothermia deaths in Australia show any trends following Julia Gillard’s energy policies.
If there were more hypERthermia deaths in South Australia (30 degrees south), compared to, say, southern Texas or Israel (30 degrees north), an Australia unprepared for “climate change” would find a diagnostic pride of place in a 2ist century forensics article.
The Malthusian warmunists must be gleeful.
South Australia has the most wind farms and the most expensive electricity of all australian states.
Stephen/Pat: Yes, higher costs (carbon taxes and high renewable content) results in more cold related deaths. “Fuel Poverty”, especially among the elderly, often leads to an “eat or heat” decision.
ghl says:
February 12, 2014 at 11:40 am
South Australia has the most wind farms and the most expensive electricity of all australian states.
*
This is our understanding of it also. We’re looking at retiring in early 2016 and moving deeper into the country. We have ruled out South Australia as a place to go for being the most Green state with strict idiotic environmental laws (such as no burning off around your house before Summer hits). I’m sure all that will change. Currently, though, South Australia is out, and so is Tasmania for being heavily under the Green thumb, too.
Les Johnson says:
February 12, 2014 at 11:48 am
Stephen/Pat: Yes, higher costs (carbon taxes and high renewable content) results in more cold related deaths. “Fuel Poverty”, especially among the elderly, often leads to an “eat or heat” decision.
***
Not only is it fuel poverty it is the poverty imposed on by the elites – period.
I never did understand social security here in the states, The attitude is here is money now go away old people…
Old ladies dying due to cold to me is a crime against humanity.
Having lived in Melbourne for 4 years, this doesn’t surprise me. The house were all built as if we were living in tropical Queensland – drafty, no insulation. We were always cold all winter long. I live in Colorado now & never feel as cold (inside) like we did when we lived in Aus.
Ah yes, energy efficiency. The little old ladies on a fixed income failed to buy the latest high-tech windows from one of Al Gore’s companies and perished as a result. Let this be a lesson to all of the elderly out there. If you resist embracing the proper “sustainable” life style, you will die. Had they only been driving Priuii, buying carbon credits and in general transferring more of their limited wealth to the global warming opportunists, the gods would have looked more favorably upon them. It has nothing to do with the fact that they couldn’t afford fuel because of the misguided public energy policy in Australia. No, no, no. Move along, nothing to see here.
…they just said that south Australians do not drink enough
Same in Northern India. If the temperature drops to 10°C /50°F the death rate increases rapidly. It’s called an inability to adapt.
I can hear the Warmunists now,
“There’s your proof Climate Deniers, the climate warms causing more extreme cold events, the cold events eliminate climate deniers causing a net drop in human CO2 production, CO2 decreases (doesn’r rise as fast) and the world suffers less. Nature fights back to self correct.” /sarc
Don’t we have to give some debate-point credit to alarmists (can’t always call them ‘warmists’ anymore) for successfully owning both sides of temperature catastrophes?
If it gets too hot, they say “CO2 Induced Global Warming!”. Or too cold, then they say “Climate Change [due to cough-CO2]!”.
There’s even a “third side”: if _nothing_ happens, then they can say: “See! The CO2 is hiding in the oceans!”.
So the new meme is Universal Carbonism: if anything happens, it reinforces the truth of Carbon-based Catastrophe. Only Wealth Redistribution can save us from freezing/burning to death.
And the media and establishment gobble up all of this nonsense as Gospel Truth.
😐
“There were 58 deaths caused by the heat of sauna. Seventy-five persons died of cold.”
Ofiicial statistic from Finland, land of the very hot sauna.
http://www.stat.fi/til/ksyyt/2012/ksyyt_2012_2013-12-30_kat_005_en.html
GHL (11:40am) has nailed it.
Most of the deaths would have been old people living alone — frugally, because of their state’s heavy reliance on very expensive “renewable energy.”
Their government should be tried for criminal negligence.
Box of Rocks says: @ur momisugly February 12, 2014 at 12:14 pm
…Not only is it fuel poverty it is the poverty imposed on by the elites – period.
I never did understand social security here in the states, The attitude is here is money now go away old people…
Old ladies dying due to cold to me is a crime against humanity.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Fitchburg MA had a nasty episode back in the early 1990’s.
MA had a bad winter, blizzards cold… A businessman in Fitchburg donated an empty warehouse which the local churches outfitted with beds etc. to get the homeless off the streets into some place warm. Social services and the town shut them down. The homeless were kicked out and died in droves… This in the state that is the home of the foremost Marxist scholars in the world (Quote from a communist buddy – he helps run Bread and Circuses)
That episode still leaves a nasty taste.