Dr. Sam Outcalt : Emeritus Professor of Physical Geography, University of Michigan writes in with an analysis of the recently revised TSI Data from the University of Colorado as mentioned on WUWT here. He notes that elements of his analysis align with some notable changes in global temperature.
I did a Hurst ReScaling of the Revised TSI Data from the University of Colorado.
I used only the 1960-2013 portion of the record with the mean subtracted.
The integral curve shows a minimum in 1977 near the base of the hockey stick and the start of the Modern Warm Regime in NOAA, GISS and Hadley data.
The convex inflection in 1998 appears to mark the end of the Modern Warm Regime.
The maximum of the integral trace in 2004 appears to indicate the onset of a new cooling regime.
These solar events are synchronous with the major events in the earth’s thermal history.
I did a similar analysis of the Ap Index for you some time ago but as I recall it didn’t display the strong link with Global Climate Change as does the TSI.
Samuel I Outcalt
From that analysis on WUWT here
Dr. Sam Outcalt shows his application of Hurst Rescaling to the Ap Solar Magnetic Index data. Using that method, he has independently identified the “step function switch off” I reported in Feb 2008:
The major regime transition is at the maximum of the integral at 2005.71, which corresponds to October 2005, the same date I identified.
Clearly the sun entered into a magnetic funk then, and has yet to come out of it.
We live in interesting times.
For more on Hurst ReScaling, see this paper: SIO_HurstReScale