Paul Hudson, BBC Weather, says:
The global temperature in 2013 was 0.486C above the 1961-1990 average based on the HADCRUT measure, figures released by the Met Office show. So far this century, of 14 yearly headline predictions made by the Met Office, 13 have been too warm.
This makes 2013 provisionally the 9th warmest year in data which goes back to 1880.
This compares with a headline anomaly prediction of 0.57C.
It means that so far this century, of 14 yearly headline predictions made by the Met Office Hadley centre, 13 have been too warm.
It’s worth stressing that all the incorrect predictions are within the stated margin of error, but having said that, they have all been on the warm side and none have been too cold.
The 2013 global temperature also means that the Met Office’s projection that half the years between 2010 and 2015 would be hotter than the hottest year on record (which on the HADCRUT measure was in 1998), issued around the time of the Copenhagen climate conference in 2009, is already incorrect.
The Met Office believe one of the reasons for this ‘warm bias’ in their annual global projections is the lack of observational data in the Arctic circle, which has been the fastest warming area on earth.
They also suggest another reason why the global surface temperature is falling short of their projections is because some of the heat is being absorbed in the ocean beneath the surface.
Full story at the BBC
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They forgot to mention that the Dog Ate It.
Does anyone in GB dare say that they could save a lot of money, AND get better forecasts, by simply disbanding the entire Met Office and offering a sum of about 1/3 of the Met Office budget to Accuweather (or any other private outfit) to do all of their forecasting.
Ah, but then they might not be so amenable to slanting the predictions in line with what was politically fashionable. They have a reputation to look after.
Ah… the all the warming in the past 15 years is happening in places where there are the fewest thermometers. Convenient. And an astonishing coincidence.
Of course if you follow their logic it flips the scientific method on its head- ‘We are right about warming, therefore the heat must be somewhere, the Arctic and Deep Ocean are somewhere, therefore the heat must be there.’ Note these locations haven’t arisen from prediction, they are the last places standing simply because they havent been measured.
Perhaps the BBC could print this famous quote along with their review of the MET office.
John Maynard Keynes–“When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do , sir?”
And that’s not even getting to the AMO chart that is now trending down!
“The Met Office believe one of the reasons for this ‘warm bias’ in their annual global projections is the lack of observational data in the Arctic circle, which has been the fastest warming area on earth.
They also suggest another reason why the global surface temperature is falling short of their projections is because some of the heat is being absorbed in the ocean beneath the surface.”
What a load of tosh, I cannot think of a way that the oceans can warm by CO2 induced global warming without the atmosphere warming as well. If there is not enough data from the Arctic, presumably the data showing the Antarctic is getting colder is also wrong! How can they say that the the Arctic is the “fastest warming area on Earth” but they don’t have the observational data to prove it. Obviously factual evidence is irrelevant when you are discussing a Belief not a Science
If this is the best they can come up with, one word springs to mind. Desperation!
If the supposed warming is happening in the deep oceans, how long would it be before we could positively identify that warming seeing as there are practically no long term records? Long enough do you think for the current batch of scientists and politicians to be able to retire and be off drawing their pensions?
“We can’t find the heat but we believe…” Maybe they should clap their hands and shout “I believe in CO2!” Like in Peter Pan…
“The Met Office believe one of the reasons for this ‘warm bias’ in their annual global projections is the lack of observational data in the Arctic circle, which has been the fastest warming area on earth.”
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ROTFLMAO link
Hold the phone:
So if: ” the lack of observational data in the Arctic circle,”
then why: “which has been the fastest warming area on earth.”
?
Did they predict that the ocean and the arctic would hide the “missing” heat? No they they didn’t so even in the unlikely event that the ” missing” heat is hiding in the arctic and the ocean their predictions were wrong. They sound like Fozzie on Happy Days, they can’t say they were wrong.
“They also suggest another reason why the global surface temperature is falling short of their projections is because some of the heat is being absorbed in the ocean beneath the surface.”
Right. And the dog peed on my homework.
Morons.
The most warming is happening in the places where we have the fewest measurements.
Stupid question: How do we know those regions are warming?
Answer: The models tell us so.
Then we take that non-existent “data” and feed it into other climate models.
Good enough for government?
Was it not just last year we were entertained by the amount of time MET employees spent visiting the sites of their competitors?
Has the temperature records lost/destroyed at the CRU, been recompiled by the MET?
As promised during theCRU email “investigations”.
As for this Average Global Temperature, when does the use of this “flexible metric” become a completely dishonest act?
To create 0.5C variation in this vaguely science like value, takes no mathematical skill at all.
Paging Phil Jones.
What is the statistical significance of this nonsense?
Under British socialism even the weather must be reported in such a way that it supports government policy.
So it seems to me, an American.
Eugene WR Gallun
So their predictions are certainly correct, it’s just a matter of finding why they don’t appear to be correct. Who said science isn’t fun?
What so humorous is that warmunists have been relegated to ranking years rather than discussing global temperature trends, because if they were forced to discuss temperature trends, CAGW would be toast.
As fate would have it, the Pacific looks like it’ll enter an El Niño cycle towards the end of this year, so 2015/~16 will most likely be warm years, which the warmunistas will, of course, blame on CAGW. Once it’s followed by a La Niña, the flat/falling trend will most likely resume and by 2017, it will be 21 years of flat/falling global temperatures, which hopefully will mark the end of CAGW….
It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out.
Excuses, excuses! When will you people understand your estimates and forecasts are based on faulty models all started by the Al Gore paid member of the NASA meteorological team. And then add on all of the grants people are trying to get that are all built on this global warming lie. When space exploration funding was cut back the idle scientists needed to have their rice bowl filled and came up with global warming as the next thing to make money on.
What really boggles the mind is that the AGW gaggle can’t see the patently obvious folly in their illogical dogma OR, “here comes that naked-nutter emperor again”.
The warmer the Arctic warms, the stronger the polar vortex becomes. The mechanism remains unclear but it may have to do with the rise in price of oranges–or lemons. –AGF
0.486C. Not 0.49C or 0.5C or 0C. No. 0.486C.
Eugene WR Gallun:
At January 28, 2014 at 10:29 am you say
The British Government is a Conservative-Liberal coalition.
The socialist Labour Party is the Opposition.
Merely because some Americans spout extreme right-wing bollocks does not mean all Americans are extreme right wing.
Or so it seems to me, a Brit.
Richard
But!
But it is even worse than you think!
The DMI has been plotting daily temperatures at 80 degrees north latitude (certainly an “arctic” location) since 1959. Across EVERY summer season, in EVERY year since 1959, despite 60 years of “global warming in the Arctic due to CO2 increases” the summertime temperature has been constant at +3.0 degrees C …. With almost a 0.0 standard deviation.
And, if you actually plot the summer temperatures year-to-year, you will find these summertime temperatures are decreasing. And decreasing faster as we get closer to today’s date!
(Winter temperatures are much, much more variable, and may (over time) be increasing. But the winter std dev. are on the order of 5-8 degrees. It is ONLY the “average” arctic temperatures (winter + summer) that can be claimed to be “increasing” …
more soylent green! says:
January 28, 2014 at 10:27 am
The most warming is happening in the places where we have the fewest measurements.
Stupid question: How do we know those regions are warming?
Answer: The models tell us so.
Then we take that non-existent “data” and feed it into other climate models.
————————————————————————————————
Even stupider question: If it only warms where most people don’t live, is it even warming?
Holy double speak Batman!
May I suggest that their models are crap?
The Met Office paper on the causes of the pause is speculation. No evidence provided only more model jerking.
So the models get the projections wrong and they use those very same crap models to figure out why the crap models are crap.
Well, they missed the mark (no surprise there) when they try to explain away their ‘warm bias’ in their forecasts … its a good example of confirmation bias.
What will they do when the glaciers return and start to make their way south? Of course … they’ll dismiss them as a purely regional effect.
Well, I am 55 years old, and 2013 is one of the coldest winters/coolest springs and falls I remember. So how the hell is it one of the warmest of the last 130 years? Does not compute.
And 2014 is looking to be colder yet.