Today, while shopping at lunchtime for some last minute year end supplies, I got one of the strangest cell-phone calls ever. It was from my friend John Coleman, the founder of the Weather Channel and Chief meteorologist at KUSI-TV in San Diego. He was calling via cell phone from his car, and he was on his way into the TV station early.
He started off by saying, “Anthony, we have a really strange situation here”.
Then to my surprise, he relayed a conversation he had just had; a person on the Akademik Shokalskiy had reached out, because they didn’t have adequate weather data on-board. At first, I thought John was pulling my leg, but then as he gave more details, I realized he was serious.
What had happened was that the US Coast Guard had received a message from the ship, requesting weather and wind information for Antarctica. That got relayed to someone at the Scripps oceanographic Institute in San Diego, and it went to John’s weekend KUSI meteorologist Dave Scott. Dave had worked with a scientist who is now on the US Coast Guard IceBreaker Polar Star, and they had logged the request for weather for forecast data from Akademik Shokalskiy. That’s how all this got started.
The message was that they needed better weather information on the ship than they had, specifically about wind and how it might affect the breakup of sea ice. John asked me to gather everything I had on the area and send it, and also to help him contact Joe D’Aleo of WeatherBell Analytics, because somehow John’s cellphone had gotten stuck into some sort of “private caller” mode and Joe wasn’t answering his phone due to how the incoming call looked.
My first thought was that no matter how much we’ve been criticizing the expedition for its silliness, that if such a request had reached all the way from Antarctica to me, I’d do everything I could to help.
I told John “give me 15 minutes”, which was about the time I’d need to get out of COSTCO and get back to my office and send along some things I knew would help.
I immediately called Joe D’Aleo at WeatherBell, who was as incredulous as I at the request, and asked him to call John Coleman right away. I explained to him that we had to remember that we were dealing with a Russian ship, not a military ship, but a charter vessel and they likely didn’t have all the tools that American meteorologists had and may not even know where to look for better data. I also pointed out that the Australian scientists on-board were climatologists, and not operational weather forecasters, and finding this sort of weather data probably wasn’t in their skill set.
Joe started working from the WeatherBell end, I finished my shopping and headed back to the office. As I drove, I started thinking about the situation with the ship there. They had wind compressing the ice into shore, with the Akademik Shokalskiy in the middle, and the wind wasn’t changing. They needed a wind shift in order to ease the pressure on the ice but they had no idea when that might happen. It was a waiting game, and as we know, the longer a ship remains trapped in sea ice, the greater its chances of having a hull breach due to the pressure.
I knew just what to send, because it was something that had been discussed several times by commenters on WUWT.
When I got back to the office, I no more than pulled up the bookmark and press send on the email with a brief description of the operational weather data model that covered the region and John Coleman was on the phone again. He asked me to talk to Dave Scott and explain what I had just sent over. I called Dave immediately and relayed the email.
I sent a live link that provided this image of Antarctica, and I noted in a Tweet about the same time:
Just had a request for Antarctic wind and FC data come up via Scripps from #spiritofmawson ship. KUSI, WeatherBell, WUWT all happy to help.
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) December 31, 2013
This map shows winds for area ship is trapped in. Waiting for katabatic winds to return which will clear ice. pic.twitter.com/XqCU6NfWWK
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) December 31, 2013
Dave listened intently to my explanation and then thanked me saying “this is exactly what we need”. I then started to do some research into the extensive library of operational forecast products put together by our friend Dr. Ryan Maue of WeatherBell which can be seen at http://models.weatherbell.com/ About that same time I get a new email from Joe D’Aleo, and he had sorted out the maps needed and had sent an email to John, Dave, and I.
In a couple of minutes John Coleman was back on the phone to me, he wanted my assessment of the maps. I had looked at what was happening and saw what I thought might be an opening in 7-8 days based on the forecast graphics from WeatherBell, where the winds would shift to offshore in the area where Akademik Shokalskiy was stuck. Like we discussed in the WUWT post yesterday Polynyas are very important for marine life and cooling the oceans I had hoped that a coastal polyna might open up near the ship. We also discussed the possibility of a low pressure system passing nearby that might help break up the ice. I didn’t express much hope for that.
The problem is that they are in a catch-22 now, they need strong offshore winds to help blow the sea ice out to open water, but at the same time they need calm or light winds for a safe helicopter rescue.
John Coleman and Dave Scott put together a video news story which ran on the KUSI 6PM News tonight. I was interviewed for the story, and you can watch it here:
http://www.kusi.com/video?clipId=9686594&autostart=true
Watching the wind is the key to the way out of the situation the Akademik Shokalskiy is in. This near real-time wind model is worth watching, and it updates every three hours with new observations, click on the image to start it.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=144.30,-66.68,3000
Note the green circle marker, which is the approximate location the Akademik Shokalskiy is at. Winds are running parallel to the coast, and pushing ice up against the edge of the Commonwealth Bay.
Despite the irony and folly of the situation, I’m sure readers will join me in the hope that everyone makes it off the ship safely, whether it is by helicopter or by the ship being freed from the ice.
Related articles
- All scientists and passengers to be taken off ship stuck in Antarctic Ice (wattsupwiththat.com)
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If they DON’T get off the ice, we can’t charge the hell out of their asses and recover the cost to the taxpayer.
I am hoping and praying they make it out alive and well. They are in great danger.
Good for you, An-thon-y! They went to the best.
That you have been given the opportunity to come to the aid of your “enemies” (v. a v. truth in science), can only be God’s providence. And, yes, I have been and will pray that God gets them out of there (they are certainly not going to get out without God’s help).
Your admiring fan,
Janice
P.S. Yet another resounding blow for free markets over socialism: During Hurricane (a real one) Katrina, it was privately owned Home Depot who got the supplies and equipment through; when 33 Chilean miners needed rescuing from the bowels of the earth, it was private companies in the U.S., Germany, and other capitalist countries (sorry, forgot all of them) who had the drill bit and cable and who flew in the supplies (U.P.S.); and now, it is you and Joe, two American free market entrepreneurs and genuine scientists’ turn. WAY TO GO!
If this were a soap opera, this would be the point when I would flick the channel. Lazy script writing. Cutting on actors due to budget cut. (I still don’t really get why you.)
REPLY: To be honest, I didn’t either. Sometimes, fate is a weird journey. I certainly didn’t seek any of this out, but I was happy to help in any way I could. I’m sure you’d do the same if you found yourself in that situation rather than “changing the channel”. Watch the KUSI News video, it explains more about how it came about – Anthony
When things get tough, truth is what people need, and propaganda is useless.
Thanks, Anthony, for sending them the facts and the truth.
It is a pity that the political mind-set in Washington does not care so much for truth, thinking propaganda is more important. They too are on a ship, the “Ship of State.”
When a ship of any sort runs into ice, what happened aboard the Titanic occurs. The first thing thrown overboard is political correctness, and people show their true colors. Some utterly freak out and panic and would kill their best friend to cling to life a little longer. Others turn to Truth.
I deem it significant than when someone aboard the Akademik Shokalskiy turned to Truth, he turned to this website.
“My first thought was that no matter how much we’ve been criticizing the expedition for its silliness, that if such a request had reached all the way from Antarctica to me, I’d do everything I could to help.”
————————————–
See all ye warmunists! This is called “ethics”.
Try to get some.
Too awesome. This is the first confirmation I have received that the Polar Star made it’s resupply mission and was in the area. Great to hear they used John Coleman as a resource, but I am sure there will be hell to pay.
Bravo to everyone involved in this.
And Bravo! to you, dear Stan Stendera! May 2014 be yours and Libby’s best year so far!
(and don’t be such a stranger — your enthusiasm, great depth and breadth of knowledge (from your non-formal education), and passionate defense of truth are needed around here!)
Janice
Anthony – you are a person of extreme character and great industry. What an exemplary way to start off the new year, bridging the bitter divide between climate alarmism and skepticism in a time of uncommon and dire need. Hopefully this will lead to some bridge mending.
Let’s hope for karma conditions.
Civilized professionalism at its finest, and a PR coup too.
We are having to follow this story on blogs like yours as the MSM in Australia are not giving the full details.
This is the gift that keeps on giving.
How can they spin their way out of this one?
Getting stuck in ice that models say should be gone, rescue attempts failed so far, ice-breakers from America getting involved, funding of trip queried, company structure queried, large dollars to be settled in costs. MSM now describing it as a tourist ship. Moving the story from science to Asia.
Best of all asking Anthony Watts for help.
I traveled to see you in Australia and have followed your blog since, keep up the brilliant work.
The laws of physics actually work – even in Nature….
‘Catabatic winds’, for those not knowing,
Are caused by heavy, cold air perched on top of
Mountains, glaciers, and ice shelves, like in
Antarctica. The only problem, is that their speeds can get very high.
Well done, again, Anthony.
The people in dire straits down there,
on self-inflicted continuous public view
(In contrast to previous arctic ventures)
Need all the practical help they can get.
Thanks to internet, we now know what it looks like down there.
OMG. This is an astounding development. It seems as if there is no end to the stupid antics of the Antarctic 74, as juxtaposed against the precarious position they have put themselves in by believing in the lie of ‘global warming’ rather than the facts in front of their own noses. I simply cannot look at their childish behaviour, when I know that at least three vessels have been pulled out of normal service, putting crew and passengers at risk, along with the people who depend on these icebreakers to supply them with food and equipment.
I hope the ice’ll get thinner so they can get out safe and well.
The irony, however, gets thicker and thicker.
The speed and professionalism of Anthony and friends was magnificent, indeed the best of humanity itself. Thank you to all involved! God speed to those in peril on the sea this night!
‘ I also pointed out that the Australian scientists on-board were climatologists, and not operational weather forecasters, and finding this sort of weather data probably wasn’t in their skill set.’
This hits the nail right on the head.
Superb stuff. When they get into trouble who can they call? Their own side are as useful as chocolate fireguards, so they had to call someone who knows what he is doing.
Yep the Australian Tax Payer (me included) will be footing the bill for this fiasco. I have already emailed Barnaby Joyce, the new government member for New England, who is a no-nonsense type of politician. In my email I suggest any future funding for this Climate Group of the University of NSW be redirected to medical research, where there are serious researchers willing to help mankind.
I am amazed, Antony, that Turney and his group were not better prepared. I have worked as a seismic supervisor in places, such as the tidal region of the Bay of Bengal and the jungles of East Borneo (for UNOCAL/Union Oil of California), where planning and appreciation of the environment was most paramount for the success of the program and the safety of my personnel and contractors.
Of course everyone wishes a safe return for all those out at sea. I don’t think there should ever be any doubt of that. Yet I’ve just had a discussion about this with my liberal friends and they don’t see the irony at all. In fact, they resent my suggesting it. This won’t change a thing. Those who believe the globe is warming due to human influence won’t let being surrounded by ice deter them.
Anthony wrote:
“I also pointed out that the Australian scientists on-board were climatologists, and not operational weather forecasters, and finding this sort of weather data probably wasn’t in their skill set”.
Pray tell, Anthony, what is their skill set? Dodgy stats analysis? Making up data? Creating mendacious propaganda? Writing meritless grants applications? Silencing opposing views by corrupting the peer review process?
When in doubt, call the professionals. Wonder whether the Cap’n has mentioned this to his tourists … 🙂
Well done. Quite a start to the new year!
The map reminds me. In the 1930s there was a lamppost in Invercargill which had the distinction of being The Most Southerly Lamppost in the British Empire.
Nothing to do with this topic, but I thought you needed to know that.
Yes, it is difficult to feel sorry for the westeners on board the Akademic Sjokowskiy.
Personally, I have stayed 6 weeks on board a similar Russian vessel (the Ivan Kireev), in the Barents Sea, actually celebrating New Year, back in 2007, with free beer and a good meal provided by the captain. We had Russian TV and the annual message from Putin.
I reckon my advice to them is: keep yor spirits up, and think about Shackleton’s journey, and Dawson’s incredible survival, about 100 years ago – unfortunately, he lost some of the men, but lived to tell us the true strength of catabatic winds of the Antarctic. Finally, if you don’t mind alcohol, sample some of the Russian stuff – it’s normally good, basic stuff. – And, don’t forget to use the Sauna on board. I had the pleasure using it once a week on the Ivan Kireev, as it was open for non-Russian ‘guests’ every Sunday. The hour in there was top of the week.
The one guy I really feel sorry for is the Captain. He is facing some really tough decisions ahead…
“Alfred Deakin” has touched on this in his post above and I offer that “Climatologist” are the late 20th early 21st Century’s Phrenologists – with all the imputations that carries.