Bjørn Lomborg writes on his Facebook page
It is phenomenal. Climate campaigners like [John] Vidal in Guardian keeps arguing that the terrible typhoon Haiyan shows we need to do more about global warming.
Yet, even *after* Haiyan, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of all cyclones in the Western North Pacific is below normal (99%, http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php). The global ACE is at 74%.
As you can see in the graph below (updated Nov 10), both Northern Hemisphere ACE and global ACE are at the lowest since the 1970s.
Graph of ACE: http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php
Yes, there are ferocious cyclones in the world, as they always have been. But first, you can’t argue that global warming is making them worse, when the indicators are *lower*. Second, claiming that CO₂ cuts is the way to tackle cyclone damages is simply immoral. Even if we cut emissions dramatically, it will have only little impact in 50-100 years. If you want to help places like Tacloban and the Philippines, it is all about adaptation.
Again, it is likely that global warming will make cyclones somewhat stronger, though likely also somewhat fewer. In total, cyclones cost 0.04% of global GDP now. Since a richer world will also be a world with better protection (Florida is much less vulnerable to cyclones than Guatemala), by the end of the century, cyclones will cost 0.01% of global GDP. And because of increasing damages from global warming, the total cost will probably go to 0.02% of global GDP. http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n3/full/nclimate1357.html
But overall cyclones will destroy *less*. We will see a reduction from 0.04% to 0.02% of GDP.
And finally, remember, that we cannot see the global warming fingerprint in cyclones today or anytime soon. GFDL from NOAA estimate that an “increase may not be detectable until the latter half of the century” http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes)
Vidal in Guardian: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/08/typhoon-haiyan-rich-ignore-climate-change
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Vidal is chasing the climate ambulance.
Mods – article needs a little html repair – no image.
I can’t argue much with Lomborg on this one. No wonder the climastrologists have blackballed him from the club.
It is not the storm that killed these people, it is poverty, corruption and lack of government.
“Never let a good crisis go to waste”. Now who said that?
Yes Gareth, I wondered why Vietnam can afford to evacuate people from low lying area’s and the Phillipines did nothing. They knew the typoon was coming. If they had put them up in a shelter in Manilla, they would have been safe.
Like how myth are being brought to life?
The BBC reports winds of 235 mph whereas in the Philipines they measure 235 kmh?
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/11/09/super-typhoon-yolanda/
anyhow when the correction will come, if any, it will be weeks later when nobody cares anymore and the memory will remain to the “unprecedented storm” Yolanda
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/11/09/no-comments-permitted/
Hmmm…no problems with images now. My byte-eater must have missed a bit when loading WUWT, so nevermind.
Someone should tell Lomborg
1. There is no global warming (temperatures flat for 17yrs)
2 Co2 has no effect on global temperatures negative feedback overwhelm laboratory effects (refer to LIndzen) Atmospheric Physicist Sloan Prize Etc…
3. Temperatures will actually fall over the next decades so maintaining that AGW is happening is morally wrong LOL
This is why I despair that the Green Fascism juggernaut will continue to roll on despite science and data to the contrary. This comment is from my Facebook page where I constantly post facts, graphs, and links to papers refuting CAGW, most recently on Typhoon Haiyan:
“Any denial of man made climate change will fall on deaf ears of the victims of this typhoon. Why fight science? Even if it is wrong, it is only minuscuely wrong in it’s projection of the impact Hello!?”
Bjorn – the fact that you are technically and economically right is irrelevant. hwen you are rebutting someone like John Vidal you are not dealing with a rational position. You are dealing with faith and religion. There is nothing you can say or do that will make him or anyone who laps up his claptrap change their mind. The ACE graph is pointless, as is the recent IPCC report which basically said there is no way to detect any signature and low confidence that it is even happening. Pointing out any historical context is also useless and trying to get anyone to correct the error of MPH instead KPH is a waste of time.They have their storm, they have more material for their storyline that we are all sinners and must repent so we can return the garden of Eden to its natural pre-industrial state,
P Gosselin says: “Vidal is chasing the climate ambulance.”
Nicely put, Pierre.
SInce, if the world is to “warm” I call it a distortion of the temperature pattern.. the real measure of whats going on is mixing ratios, which due to drying are dropping over the tropics in the mid and upper levels) one may argue the distortion of increases away from the equator would distort the pattern enough to LIMIT cyclones. Ever wonder why the Bay of Bengal has its most active month in October or a late season southwest pac rally often follows a quiet season. I opined on this on weatherbell and it was taught years ago to me by others. The earth needs cool places to max out tropical activity as they simply represent a redistribution of heat out of the tropics. As soon as Asia started its natural cooling, the balancing act that limited activity changed. The higher pressures over the cooling land in the means meant the buildup of heat could be “focused” in the tropics. Haiyan is likely the last of a major rally, that coincided with a drop in the SOI over the last 20-30 days as the cooling of land forced enhancement of convergence to over the water, as the stronger easterlies that result with the enso 3.4 is cold and Asia is warm, slow. This actually may be linked to a winter warming ( slight) in enso 3.4 which then ties into the north american winter weather pattern. But the point it focused cool in the arctic while the tropics are warm may mean that a drop in global temps would be a bigger signal for tropical cyclones.
As it is, OPPOSITE the IPCC ideas, the mid and upper levels are not developing into so called trapping hot spots, but instead are drying out
I have developed a theory of global distortion of temps, the with ace and distribution of sea ice as key hints that what merely is happening is the warming of the continents by oceanic cycles ( now reversing) simply distorts the global temperature pattern so the mean north south band of warmest temps is distorted a bit north, forcing low than normal pressures north of the tropics, and consequently a DOWNTURN of activity. An uptick should develop if global temperatures, as Gray long opined, continues to 2030. Thats another interesting factor.. Gray predicted this years and ago and yet no one goes to him about all this.. Fact is, he has seen this from decades away ( I first heard his theories in the 1970s) Guys like me are merely recycling what giants before have seen
Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
Kinda off topic,,,,,,,but ,,,,,,,
I found this loop compelling enough to share.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/131107_coms1_ir_haiyan_anim.gif
Oh come on Bjørn, what fraction of a standard deviation (or error bar) does it have to be to reach “normal”. In my not-very-humble opinion, I suggest you call it average because in my very humble opinion, I don’t know what normal is this year.
Why would you believe these indices, which include guesstimates on how many small storms went undetected in past years?
It’s fairly safe to say that humanity has detected most large hurricanes of the past 100 years, so that measuring large hurricanes is a good way to index past versus present activity. When measuring large hurricanes (Cat. 3 and above), there is NOT a trend of increasing hurricane activity.
But somehow when small hurricanes and tropical storms (there’s no way people could detect these with the same reliability we have now, and any “adjustment” to the number is just a guess) are included, there IS a trend of increasing hurricane activity? It’s absurd.
Just another example of the corrupt science in this field.
Dr Jeff Masters makes an ass of himself feeding excitation to the Guardian eco warriors:
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/nov/08/typhoon-haiyan-philippines-tropical-cyclones?commentpage=1
Masters explains how the reported wind speed has been calculated:
>>
Three hours before landfall, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) assessed Haiyan’s sustained winds at 195 mph, gusting to 235 mph, making it the 4th strongest tropical cyclone in world history. Satellite loops show that Haiyan weakened only slightly, if at all, in the two hours after JTWC’s advisory, so the super typhoon likely made landfall with winds near 195 mph.
>>
Sorry Doc, “world history” goes back a bit further than our limited data on storm winds. Sounds great though.
He continues:
>>
The next JTWC intensity estimate, for 00Z UTC November 8, about three hours after landfall, put the top winds at 185 mph. Averaging together these estimates gives a strength of 190 mph an hour after landfall. Thus, Haiyan had winds of 190 – 195 mph at landfall, making it the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in world history.
>>
on record … in world history , nice trick.
Somebody blames Typhoon on AGW….the sun rose in the east today.
I’m wondering what AGW has to do with the alto cumulus over my head today…coincidence? I don’t think so….
Thanks, Bjørn. Good article.
I track the Global Tropical Cyclone Activity graphic by Dr. Ryan N. Maue every month in my climate and tropical weather pages. This is a very informative graphic.
“Again, it is likely that global warming will make cyclones somewhat stronger, though likely also somewhat fewer.”
Three implications here: 1) Global warming is likely continue(!?); 2) It will make cyclones stronger; 3) It will make them somewhat (?) fewer.
Data, please, Mr. Lomborg.
Eve says:
November 10, 2013 at 4:29 am
Yes Gareth, I wondered why Vietnam can afford to evacuate people from low lying area’s and the Phillipines did nothing. They knew the typoon was coming. If they had put them up in a shelter in Manilla, they would have been safe.
Oh, please. Vietnam is on the continental mainland. The Philippines is an archipelago. To evacuate the people in the typhoon’s path to Manila would have required an airlift or a sealift.
This cyclone will do its part in cooling the planet. Given it’s location in the PWP could it reduce the chances for another El Niño in the near future? Has anyone ever looked for a correlation of lack of PWP cyclones and higher El Niño probability?
storms come from differing temperature air masses, or the clash where cold air meets warm air……in a warmer world the difference between the cold air masses and warm air masses would be LESS, because global warming would mean the colder areas get warmer, thereby lessening the differential.
Not too long ago the main cry was “It’s gods will” now its mankind and CO2 – go figure….