From 11/5/13 edition of INVESTOR’S BUSINESS DAILY
Science: The global warming alarmists continue to go about their business — which is minding everyone else’s business — while their yarn keeps fraying. Their latest problem: a study that says nature, not man, drives climate.
Last week President Obama issued the executive order “Preparing the United States for the Impacts of Climate Change.”
It’s almost 3,000 words outlining a plan to help the country get through “prolonged periods of excessively high temperatures” and “more heavy downpours” as well as “an increase in wildfires, more severe droughts, permafrost thawing, ocean acidification and sea-level rise.”
The order even insists that these dire conditions “are already affecting communities, natural resources, ecosystems, economies, and public health across the nation.”
Clearly the White House missed the news — isn’t that where Obama has learned about various scandals that have suffused his administration? — that there has been no warming since 1997.
What’s more, it’s also missed the news about a peer-reviewed paper that recently appeared in the journal Climate Dynamics. According to the science, the pause in warming that began as temperatures leveled off in the late 1990s could extend into the 2030s.
Paper authors Judith Curry, head of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, and Marcia Wyatt, from the Department of Geological Sciences at the University of Colorado-Boulder, found — no surprise here — that the United Nations climate models that predict a scorched Earth are not reliable.
“The growing divergence between climate model simulations and observations raises the prospect that climate models are inadequate in fundamental ways,” says Curry.
What Curry and Wyatt see, and which the models could not project, given the junk that was fed into them, is a natural cycle of warming and cooling.
The summary of the paper describes a “‘stadium-wave’ signal that propagates like the cheer at sporting events” that covers “the Northern Hemisphere through a network of ocean, ice, and atmospheric circulation regimes that self-organize into a collective tempo.”
This “wave periodically enhances or dampens the trend of long-term rising temperatures, which may explain the recent hiatus in rising global surface temperatures,” the summary said.
The paper also explains that “declining sea ice extent over the last decade is consistent with the stadium wave signal.”
What’s more, “the wave’s continued evolution portends a reversal of this trend of declining sea ice.”
And the role of man’s greenhouse-gas emissions on sea ice decline? Apparently it’s not so significant.
While Wyatt says “the stadium wave signal does not support or refute anthropogenic global warming,” Curry promises that “this paper will change the way you think about natural internal variability,” a factor that the alarmists tend to deny.
Curry also says the paper “provides a very different view from” a study featured last month by the New York Times whose lead author says that by 2047, give or take five years, “the coldest year in the future will be warmer than the hottest year in the past.”
We don’t expect the alarmists to look into this “very different view.” They’ve decided that humans are warming the planet by burning fossil fuels and any evidence to the contrary is dismissed.
But they can’t really believe anything else, can they?
If they did, they would lose their justification for meddling in private affairs.
And that, not the environment, is what the global warming scare is really all about.
Former Australian Prime Minister John Howard delivered a thoughtful and accurate assessment of the whole politicised “science” last night in London;
http://resources.news.com.au/files/2013/11/06/1226753/906885-howard-speech.pdf
The disconnect between what is being discovered (due to curiosity & scepticism) and what is being promulgated (due to blind adherence to the meme) is becoming alarmingly obvious. How does the populace force reconnection? These politicians and ‘scientists’ are having a field day, which the appear to be defending at any cost.
I am sure alarmists think they are saving the world.
I am equally sure none of them know what from. Blind zealotry is a terrible curse.
it’s too bad that the President of the United States is so confused by weather, thinking it’s climate. I already have given him MY take on his ridiculous climate policy, “A More Balanced View of Pres. Obama’s Climate Change Plan”, http://bit.ly/17MBPYk
“According to the science, the pause in warming that began as temperatures leveled off in the late 1990s could extend into the 2030s.”
Whoa! Hardly has the ink dried on Roy Spencer’s plea for sceptics to refrain from any form of long term climate predictions, than out comes this doozy. For chrissakes, haven’t we had it up to here with stupid, brain dead, rent seeking alarmists playing that infantile game? If there’s one certainty that’s come out of their scam, it’s the uncertainty of climate. Chaotic by nature. Steer well clear of any brand of predictive climate modelling, I say.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/10/the-danger-of-hanging-your-hat-on-no-future-warming/
Tim Collins says (November 6, 2013 at 9:17 pm)
“Former Australian Prime Minister John Howard delivered a thoughtful and accurate assessment of the whole politicised “science” last night in London”
Too little and way too late. Touted as a “conviction politician” (mainly because of his admirable lone stand to secure a national ban on guns), how differently the insane “carbon” kerfuffle would have panned out had his principle got the better of media pressure.
And too little. “I instinctively feel that some of the claims are exaggerated” is hardly a knock out blow.
Just like any run-of-the-mill politician these days, his “conviction” depends on which way he thinks the political wind is blowing. In short, thanks for nothing, Mr Howard.
Andrew Bolt has his measure here.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/howard_admits_he_caved_in_on_global_warming_not_from_conviction_but_fear/
Graham, it looks like we are highly unlikely to have a strong solar cycle until the 2030s.
Richard Fletcher’s discussion is damning of alarmism and der Fuehrer’s clearly intentional, calculated, purposeful ignorance of the facts. The problem, however, its that neither alarmists nor dictators listen to anything outside their meme, and you can double that when the alarmist and the dictator are the same individual.
So long as it is understood that Barry Obama is an idiot I’m on board with this.
Does anyone know of climate models that are not being fed junk? I’m curious to find out the extent to which they are useful if run judiciously.
Our (UK) government, seem to be seeing through this veil of deceit and lies, well at least the Conservative side are, the Liberal Democrats are like Obama, naïve and easily led. Hopefully this whole rotten mess will be seen for what it is, it is unfortunately there are too many believers and too few scientists in high places.
Graham of Sydney says:
November 6, 2013 at 10:06 pm
“According to the science, the pause in warming that began as temperatures leveled off in the late 1990s could extend into the 2030s.”
Whoa! Hardly has the ink dried on Roy Spencer’s plea for sceptics to refrain from any form of long term climate predictions, than out comes this doozy. For chrissakes, haven’t we had it up to here with stupid, brain dead, rent seeking alarmists playing that infantile game? If there’s one certainty that’s come out of their scam, it’s the uncertainty of climate. Chaotic by nature. Steer well clear of any brand of predictive climate modelling, I say.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/10/the-danger-of-hanging-your-hat-on-no-future-warming/
While I understand your reasoning not to start trying to forecast the future of a non-linear chaotic system, backing off completely leaves the field open to alarmists showing New York flooded to the 6th floor in Manhattan. If you Graham say “that’s not right” – you will get the alarmist response well forecast (predict/project) what you think will happen then? Look at our excellent models..
In the mean time based on the alarmist AGW forecasts (projections/predictions) regulations are being put in place worldwide that are already leading to deaths from energy poverty and will leave irrecoverable holes in power generation worldwide. The money being wasted on these AGW boondoggles is also not going to other areas like food supply and the rush to ‘sustainable biofuels’ is the greatest threat to virgin rain forests. That is before we look at the political ramifications of a fake crisis ‘not being wasted’.
Sitting on hands is not an option the case of the ‘stadium wave’ like other research is showing that the past can be as efficiently modeled using natural oscillations and therefore the AGW claims of ‘no other explanation’ for warming is falsified. The scientific step from there is to say these oscillations / stadium waves if they continue would lead to the next years being static or cooler. This is a prediction based on the hypothesis that allows its falsification by events. It is not an alarmist forecast of mile high ice over New York.
Bottom Line: The greatest heresy for the alarmist cult is the concept of natural climate cycles.
Natural climate cycles have been with us for hundreds of millions of years, so why should they suddenly cease now?
Until some entity takes up the gauntlet against some aspect of the global warming scam in a court of law, it will still take the money. Only when the lying obfuscation costs them, will it end.
As usual, though, I bet none of the MSM pick this up.
Keep up the work, though – the dripping tap eventually will wear a hole in the bath.
Last week President Obama issued the executive order “Preparing the United States for the Impacts of Climate Change.”
I wish he’d spend his time settling more urgent issues, like the conflict between VHS and Betamax.
“I’m curious to find out the extent to which they [climate models] are useful if run judiciously.”
In my understanding, the computer programs that are called ‘climate models’ are a collection of speculations concocted and tossed together by those who build the model. They are not even a decent hypothesis to my way of thinking, but the muddled hypothesis they do represent is that CO2 is the overwhelming main driver of the planet Earth’s climate. Since CO2 is at best a minor player in the array of forces that effect the climate of planet Earth, it is not possible for these computer programs to make reliable predictions about anything other than the size of the next grant coming in from the government.
It is my belief that science still has little clear understanding as to all the forces that drive the climate of the Earth. The science is still in its infancy and will not grow up to be a valuable adult unless we strip government (political) funding from it and let people practice non-politicized science.
The above is only one private opinion. Do not alarm you kids with it! (if only faux-Dr. Mann would do likewise)
— Mark
Take control of sea level rise and now take control of weather. Is there nothing our President can’t do with a word and a stroke of the pen?
I’m thinking his next edict will be that all of the children shall be above average.
In reference to “”Last week President Obama issued the executive order “Preparing the United States for the Impacts of Climate Change.””
Barack, I really hoped you would turn out well, for all sorts of reasons. Now it seems you are a shadow puppet and a master of spin. I am not an American but what you do has far reaching effects on the rest of us, and for a nation that for so long was the absolute pinnacle of scientific achievement you really have fallen from grace. I suggest you go and reread your constitution and rediscover the many reasons why you were what you became, not only for your own sake but also for the sake of all Americans who will suffer the shortsighted and wrongheaded positions you have inexplicably appear to have taken. FFS.
dp and Mike McMillan:
Thanks for beating me here with what I was thinking…
As I’ve pointed out before, the left always think they can do better. They claimed Bush was an idiot, so they got someone who vastly exceeds him. Dems win… theirs is definitely the bigger idiot.
The whole AGW thing reminds me of the Pink Floyd song “Have a Cigar”…
markstoval says:@ur momisugly November 7, 2013 at 1:34 am
In my understanding, the computer programs that are called ‘climate models’ are a collection of speculations concocted and tossed together by those who build the model. They are not even a decent hypothesis to my way of thinking…..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
From my reading of the Ged Davis e-mail The IPCC climate model ensemble includes What-If Storylines and Scenarios including 4. Sustainable Development (B1) aka UN Agenda 21
The e-mail attachments starts out with
Am I interpreting this e-mail correctly? Does the IPPC climate model ensemble include climate models of the UN’s most desired future and those are the models that almost touch reality?
I would really like to know whether this is true or I am incorrect?
This interpretation fits the IPCC mandate:
I wonder if Gilmour Mason and co realized just how prophetic those words were given they were written years ago in different circumstances.
I really would like to know if I am correctly interpreting the Ged Davis e-mail (storylines and scenarios) with regard to the IPCC climate model ensemble given the IPCC mandate
“…The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988 to assess the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of human induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for mitigation and adaptation…. ”
http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/
If I am correct the lowest climate models that come close to matching reality represent the UN’s most favorable future/lowest CO2 emissions.
I posted a much shorter version of this but it has gone into moderation (last time for hours)
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/05/climate-models-worse-than-we-thought/#comment-1467108
It’s almost 3,000 words outlining a plan to help the country get through “prolonged periods of excessively high temperatures” and “more heavy downpours” as well as “an increase in wildfires, more severe droughts, permafrost thawing, ocean acidification and sea-level rise.”
The order even insists that these dire conditions “are already affecting communities, natural resources, ecosystems, economies, and public health across the nation.”
I thought that electing liberal activist democrats were cause of all of that.
Never fear Obama is here to save the day from the the CO2 molecules. Then right back to healthcare, or more correctly called “guberment insurance”. What a guy.