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It’s known by climatologists as the ‘Little Ice Age’, a period in the 1600s when harsh winters across the UK and Europe were often severe.
The severe cold went hand in hand with an exceptionally inactive sun, and was called the Maunder solar minimum.
Now a leading scientist from Reading University has told me that the current rate of decline in solar activity is such that there’s a real risk of seeing a return of such conditions.
I’ve been to see Professor Mike Lockwood to take a look at the work he has been conducting into the possible link between solar activity and climate patterns.
According to Professor Lockwood the late 20th century was a period when the sun was unusually active and a so called ‘grand maximum’ occurred around 1985.
Since then the sun has been getting quieter.
By looking back at certain isotopes in ice cores, he has been able to determine how active the sun has been over thousands of years.
Following analysis of the data, Professor Lockwood believes solar activity is now falling more rapidly than at any time in the last 10,000 years.
He found 24 different occasions in the last 10,000 years when the sun was in exactly the same state as it is now – and the present decline is faster than any of those 24.
Based on his findings he’s raised the risk of a new Maunder minimum from less than 10% just a few years ago to 25-30%.
And a repeat of the Dalton solar minimum which occurred in the early 1800s, which also had its fair share of cold winters and poor summers, is, according to him, ‘more likely than not’ to happen.
He believes that we are already beginning to see a change in our climate – witness the colder winters and poor summers of recent years – and that over the next few decades there could be a slide to a new Maunder minimum.
It’s worth stressing that not every winter would be severe; nor would every summer be poor. But harsh winters and unsettled summers would become more frequent.
Professor Lockwood doesn’t hold back in his description of the potential impacts such a scenario would have in the UK.
He says such a change to our climate could have profound implications for energy policy and our transport infrastructure.
Although the biggest impact of such solar driven change would be regional, like here in the UK and across Europe, there would be global implications too.
According to research conducted by Michael Mann in 2001, a vociferous advocate of man-made global warming, the Maunder minimum of the 1600s was estimated to have shaved 0.3C to 0.4C from global temperatures.
It is worth stressing that most scientists believe long term global warming hasn’t gone away. Any global cooling caused by this natural phenomenon would ultimately be temporary, and if projections are correct, the long term warming caused by carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases would eventually swamp this solar-driven cooling.
But should North Western Europe be heading for a new “little ice age”, there could be far reaching political implications – not least because global temperatures may fall enough, albeit temporarily, to eliminate much of the warming which has occurred since the 1950s.
You can see more on Inside Out on Monday 28th October on BBC1, at 7.30pm.
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From http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/posts/Real-risk-of-a-Maunder-minimum-Little-Ice-Age-says-leading-scientist
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Back in 2011, Lockwood said something totally dissimilar:
“The Little Ice Age wasn’t really an ice age of any kind – the idea that Europe had a relentless sequence of cold winters is frankly barking” – Dr Mike Lockwood Reading University
From: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/10/10/bbc-the-little-ice-age-was-all-about-solar-uv-variability-wasnt-an-ice-age-at-all/
I have a follow-on article coming up on UV observations in a couple of hours, don’t miss it.
Meanwhile the sun has recently gotten more active in the last couple of weeks, indicating a possible second peak in the current solar cycle is upon us, see details on the WUWT Solar reference page – Anthony
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Ah, the press… they do love their scary stories.
Sounds like we’re going to have catastrophic global warming and catastrophic global cooling at the same time.
Time to bundle up. It’s going to get colder outside.
Now, something new to worry about. Oh, but it’s just temporary! Save the religion at all costs in the bigger picture.
Mann has just gone into a twitter meltdown about this blog.
https://twitter.com/MichaelEMann
Hope he realizes that Paul Hudson has been conversing with a serious University Professor.
From a well respected English university.
Mann massive problem is the way he deals with any critique. Is skin is so thin its unreal.
Doubtless Leif will comment soon. I take issue with Anthony’s comment that “the sun has recently gotten more active in the last couple of weeks.” By the measure of the number of sunspots, this is true. But by other measures, it is not. I am no expert, but the number and intensity of flares is small, (there is an M1 only now in action), the Ap is low, and the L&P sunspot magnetic intensity is below 2000 gauss, with the trend line still negative.
The prof is stunningly doing real actual science. Its rather good to see to be honest. I’m amazed his Uni are letting him.
I wonder if temporary means 30 – 60 years of the next minimum….hmmm… Is it time to have a poll to name it?
No more “hide the decline!” Now, those that call themselves “scientists” can “ride the decline!” Perhaps, in a toboggan.
About time Lockwood, a respected Solar Physicist working in a Meteorology Department which has hitherto followed the IPCC Party Line, jumped off the fence on this matter.
All we need now is for more academic physicists to accept that the current IPCC heat generation and transfer physics is juvenile nonsense.
Also, with a little bit of thought, it is easy to prove CO2-AGW is near zero and that the recent AGW, now saturated, was from Asian pollution reducing cloud albedo.
I just love twitter… It really shows everyone how lame your mind is in the fewest possible words.
The only rationale to continue efforts to push for carbon taxes in support of global warming while multidecadal global cooling is underway comes from the liberal assumption that there is always ample wealth to tap for any good cause. What if that too is a false assumption during global cooling?
Brrrrrrrrr!!
(Sarc on) Good thing we live in a time when data are adjusted to climate models. That way we’d never know it got cold…if it gets cold. (Sarc off)
At least Lockwood is able to learn, advance and brave enough to change his stance which is so rare in today’s science climate.
BBC just can’t do anything but uncritically blurt out the old saw “but warming is still going on in the background”. Of course it is, Beeb. Of course you can tell, by direct measurement, of course. Of the number of gigabytes of zeros and ones streaming out of the model du jour.
Cooling, warming,
Flooding, droughts.
Melting, freezing.
Have no doubts.
Something’s coming experts know.
but when they’re wrong they must eat crow.
“According to Professor Lockwood the late 20th century was a period when the sun was unusually active and a so called ‘grand maximum’ occurred around 1985.”
I noted independently of Anthony Dr. Lockwood once was on another side of this argument, part of a Solar Scientist clique familiar to WUWT.
The hottest weather I’ve experienced, residing in WI and MN, was 1982 thru ’88.
The secular peak in the Jovian planetary tide was also 1982.
Oh mon Dieu! Let the bells ring and the banners fly.
A BBC reporter investigated a scientific issue (spoke to a neutral old school, traditional scientist as opposed to an activist); the scientist, Lockwood notes that the solar magnetic cycle 24 change is the fastest slowdown in the solar magnetic cycle in 10,000 years and notes the planet cools when the sun enters a grand solar minimum i.e. if the past is a clue to what will happen in the future there is scientific evidence that the solar magnetic cycle slowdown will cause the planet to cool and if the cause of the cooling is the change in solar magnetic cycle, the planet will cool rapidly due to the rapidity of the solar magnetic cycle change. Based on Michael Mann’s 2001 work the planet was 0.3C to 0.4C colder during the Maunder solar magnetic cycle minimum. Other scientists estimate that the planet was 0.7C to 1C colder during the Maunder minimum. The past grand solar minimums have lasted for 50 to 100 years.
Perhaps the sudden unexplained increase in polar sea ice both poles (and record cold winters in Europe) is the catalyst for the sudden conversion of a BBC reporter from a mouth piece of the AGW movement back to the traditional role of reporters which is to investigate issues.
Good news indeed. Looks like we’ll be getting a several decade long respite to build those 20 meter seawalls.
Sounds like we’re going to have catastrophic global warming and catastrophic global cooling at the same time.
This time we are threatened by extreme average. Catastrophic mediocrity.
Have to love the: It is worth stressing that most scientists believe long term global warming hasn’t gone away. Any global cooling caused by this natural phenomenon would ultimately be temporary, and if projections are correct, the long term warming caused by carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases would eventually swamp this solar-driven cooling.
Do they think there will be any humans left on the planet when the long-term warming swamps us?
According to Professor Lockwood the late 20th century was a period when the sun was unusually active and a so called ‘grand maximum’ occurred around 1985.
I can already hear the Leif blower spinning up.
Now we need to figure out what the impacts on food supply will be if all of this happens, and make plans to get the future food producers set up with what they need – irrigation, infrastructure, etc. The warmists just need to go away.
What a load of bull. They are still holding on to this nonsense that global warming is suddenly going to save us from freezing cold winters. If AGW was true it would cancel out any cooling before it got started.
“… the possible link between solar activity and climate patterns.” Could the BBC pour fluid out of a boot if the instructions were written on the sole?