It looks like the Maslowski Countdown has ended early and there will be no “ice free Arctic” as predicted this year.
From NSIDC, which has a 5 day average in the plot. It looks like the minimum extent is ~5.0-5.1 million sq kilometers. NSIDC has yet to make an announcement on the turning point as of this writing. Note the minimum is within the standard deviation bounds (grey shading) that NSIDC provides.
Note also that it is still possible to see a drop again, as this has happened in years past, but given the colder temperatures this year, a reversal appears unlikely.
![N_stddev_timeseries[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/n_stddev_timeseries1.png?quality=75)
The JAXA plot concurs:
![AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent_L[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/amsre_sea_ice_extent_l1.png?quality=75)
The JAXA data says:
09-10 5084063 09-11 5029688 09-12 5000313 09-13 5031094 09-14 5055625 09-15 5063438
The NANSEN plot concurs as well:
More at the WUWT Sea Ice page: http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/
Related articles
- Tough Times For Sea Ice Melt Enthusiasts… (wattsupwiththat.com)
- The early chill in the Arctic continues (wattsupwiththat.com)
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It may possibly go lower, but the odds on it going below 2010 are very slim.
I guess this means that ManBearPig will be denning early this year. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xf69EEL3WBk
But there are still 6 days to go, anything can happen. 🙂 Here are their predictions / projections for an ice-free Arctic. Two have now failed. Maslowski’s partner in crime is part-time professor Paul Beckwith. He said:
He says “An event unprecedented in human history…” This is not true (click). His students beware.
Wouldn’t it be great to get an email list for his classes and send them that link?
So tired of these asshats being wrong over and over and over…and teaching students the same muck that got them there year after year.
Given that the NSIDC’s office in Boulder is shut down due to the flooding, I wouldn’t be expecting any announcements of any kind from them for a while. The staff there have got bigger problems right now.
To the staff of NSIDC, I hope you are all OK, and that you get back on your feet soon.
Thanks Anthony.
Arctic sea ice is now probably past its minimum.
The other indicators point this way too.
Paul Ehrlich has been 100% wrong for 40 years, yet is still beloved by the loonies. The chances a bunch of young skulls full of mush rejecting their well intentioned part-time prof…er, teacher….0%.
What was the WUWT forecast?
temps won’t touch it now…only watch the wind
I said 5 million, was that close enough?
I thought the WUWT forecast that Anthony submitted was 5 million. Looking pretty good.
Real close enough.
the fact the melt is within the standard deviation will be lost on the type of people that frequent the arctic sea ice forum run by neven (the forum,not the blog) it appears standard deviation only applies to climate models that have error boundaries greater than the actual measurements to minimise the falsification test ,although as we can see,even those boundaries are not great enough.
apologies if i have used incorrect terminology to describe the hypocrisy on view in a variety of blogs/forums such sks,the arctic sea ice forum,real climate etc.
Now, just to question all assumptions: What exactly is the “supposed” fear (or justification amongst the CAGW-alarmists) for all of the hype surrounding the loss of Arctic Sea Ice?
What are their actual calculations and what constants are they basing this hysteria upon?
If it the “gain” in heat energy comparing an “open Arctic ocean albedo” compared to an ice-covered Arctic albedo, then should they not be concerned far more about the GAIN in Antarctic sea ice at all times of the year, at latitudes far closer to the Equator where solar energy is actually reflected from the ice at all times? (Rather than just a few weeks at very high latitudes? ) Because around the Antarctic continent, the sea ice at minimum extent is at 69-70 degrees latitude, and at maximum extent, it is past latitude 60 south.
For, in the Arctic (beginning in mid-August, and even more so at this time of year of 12 hours of darkness), the Arctic Ocean loses much more energy when the waters are not covered by an insulating blanket of ice than they gain from the little bit of sunlight available.
Should we begin predicting when Cape Horn will be blocked by Antarctic Sea Ice in April and May, rather than when the (unneeded) Northwest Passage will be open for a few days in August or September? If current trends continue, Cape Horn could be blocked within 8-12 years.
Someone needs to look at the Hycom/SSMI graphic depicting sea ice thickness. Over the last day the ice pack at its thickest point has lost approximately one metre in thickness. Something is amiss!
Leon,
The WUWT forecast made in June was 4.8.
The UK Met Office, with their highly skilful computer models and supercomputers, came up with 3.4
😉
Turned into sea ice spotter and see large differences in plots of Arctic sea ice
e.g. from 13the September 2013
http://www.zen183332.zen.co.uk/1309.jpg
could not find the scale for the right hand graphic
What exactly is the “supposed” fear
====
Poley bears will drown….except them their real numbers go up
The NE will get colder/warmer wetter/drier snowier/less snowier
..and the big one! ski resorts will have two less days…except when they don’t
This past summer has also seen record cold in the Arctic 80th northern parallel since the DMI record began in 1958. Something you might not read in the IPCC summary for policy makers. The climate has indeed changed. First they picked global warming, then they shifted to climate change. What a cat and mouse game of a joke.
“Daily mean temperatures for the Arctic area north of the 80th northern parallel…”
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Sea Ice Outlook report for WUWT was 4.8, both in June and August. You can check it here: http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2013/june
However, 5.0 msq/km had most votes in August. Which is very close to JAXA’s 5000313 sq/km (which may still change..)
Sierra Club – March 23, 2013
“For the record—I do not think that any sea ice will survive this summer. An event unprecedented in human history is today, this very moment, transpiring in the Arctic Ocean….”
A PHD in climatology? Really? What’s required to obtain such a specialised designation? I think I may have a shot if its simply random guesswork without any basis in reality!
A reminder that, to me anyway, the main point here isn’t whether or not the Arctic is “ice-free’ but that the alarmist said (predicted, projected) it would be based on the whole GAGW premise. They were wrong. Stop making policy based on error.
This late summer the North West passage was blocked with ice. This must be Arctic Amplification at work. It gets hotter in the Arctic every year.
Darn it! – I can’t remember what I voted for now, but I’m sure it was around the 5.0 mark ! Honest Guv!
Yep. Those poley bears are doooooomed to drown. They just can’t swim. Their cubs have had it. The Holocene Climate Optimum wiped them out. The much warmer Eemian interglacial had NO polar bear jaw found. It must have been fake. Polar bears are perhaps the greatest, large mamalian survivors ever.
Was there a prize for this competition, if so send it to Mount Galleywood, Essex, UK in 7 days time – Many thanks LG 😉