Climate models wildly overestimated global warming, study finds
Can you rely on the weather forecast? Maybe not, at least when it comes to global warming predictions over short time periods.
That’s the upshot of a new study in the journal Nature Climate Change that compared 117 climate predictions made in the 1990’s to the actual amount of warming. Out of 117 predictions, the study’s author told FoxNews.com, three were roughly accurate and 114 overestimated the amount of warming. On average, the predictions forecasted two times more global warming than actually occurred.
Some scientists say the study shows that climate modelers need to go back to the drawing board.
More: http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/09/12/climate-models-wildly-overestimated-global-warming-study-finds/
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.@JoeSquawk @PeteFleck Joe! That’s exactly what scientists do: improve models with new data/info. And climate models are already excellent.
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Underlying ocean melts ice shelf, speeds up glacier movement
Warm ocean water, not warm air, is melting the Pine Island Glacier’s floating ice shelf in Antarctica and may be the culprit for increased melting of other ice shelves, according to an international team of researchers.
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By Jason Samenow,
After I posted news that Greenland soared to its hottest temperature on record this summer, it came to light that the toasty reading was under review by the Danish Meteorological Society (which maintains Greenland’s records) and might be rescinded.
Today, John Cappelen, senior climatologist at the Danish Meteorological Society, emailed me to let me know the record high of 25.9 C (78.6 F) set on July 30 at Maniitsoq stands.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/09/10/confirmed-greenland-recorded-hottest-temperature-in-modern-record-this-summer/
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PR Firm Enlisted [by IPCC] to Convince Leaders to Ignore Public
The UN’s Climate Secretariat will get free PR advice so it can inspire politicians to take action. But the UN’s own survey says the public ranks climate change last among 16 priorities.
click to enlarge
I’ve observed previously that the public relations community plays a disturbing role in the climate change debate.
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Poll reveals climate change less of a ‘hot button’ topic
Compared to the 2008 poll, the percentage of people seeing climate change as something people can control fell by 10 percent to 41 percent. The number of people who believe climate change is just part of normal climate patterns increased by 10 percent to 47 percent…fewer rural Nebraskans believe immediate action from the government is necessary – 38 percent, down from 53 percent in 2008.
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Bishop Hill blog – The end of Sternonomics?
In a really good article in the New York Times, Eduardo Porter explains the economic end of the global warming debate in terms that even the most rabid green could understand. His starting point is the competing estimates of the social cost of carbon
…
If he’s right then it may be that sanity has broken out in Washington. The Americans are going to reject Sternonomics out of hand. How long before politicians in Westminster follow suit?
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The study reveals that 67 eagles were killed in 5 years by US windfarms other than Altamont Pass.
“Still, the scientists said their figure is likely to be “substantially” underestimated, since companies report eagle deaths voluntarily and only a fraction of those included in their total were discovered during searches for dead birds by wind-energy companies. The study also excluded the deadliest place in the country for eagles, a cluster of wind farms in a northern California area known as Altamont Pass*. Wind farms built there decades ago kill more than 60 per year.” – AP news, published by Time Magazine & Daily Mail 11 Sept. 2013
http://science.time.com/2013/09/11/study-wind-farms-killed-67-eagles-in-5-years/
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Gore loses his mind.
Al Gore tells Sharknado joke at NASCAR Green Summit
Al Gore, speaking in Chicago at the 2013 NASCAR Green Summit, opened his keynote speech by telling a Sharknado joke. No, he didn’t poke fun at how the film was destroyed on Twitter, or the (lack of) acting skills possessed by Tara Reid.
Former Vice President of the United States & Chairman of The Climate Reality Project, Al Gore said that he used to think NASCAR and green were as closely related as sharks and tornadoes.
Gore then went on to say how auto racing and environmentalism are now synonymous, thanks to the initiative that he and NASCAR CEO Brian France started five years ago.
Al Gore also said Sharknado was the sleeper hit of the summer.
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$3.2 quadrillion. And they say we can afford it. the Fed better get printing and work over time!
> Al Gore also said Sharknado was the sleeper hit of the summer.
Well, maybe the sleeper hit of one day of the summer….
The temperature of Gore’s brain is millions of degrees.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they were all wrong. In fact, I’d expect that. But what I want to know is the following – Why aren’t half the models too high and half too low? Just sayin’
You’ve not seen a Sharknado until you’ve seen a Category 6 Sharknado.
“Gore loses his mind.”
You have to have one before you can lose it.
Bah, Sharknados are for wimps. Orcanado is the wave of the future.
So 114 /117 = .97. So climate scientists are 97% certain they are right but get 97% of their predictions wrong. At least they are consistent.
There’s your 97% consensus.
It’s just wrong.
in re: The model study in Nature Climate change: The rhetoric from these failed climate scientists is always the same: “We’re wrong, but we’rel important and you have to take us and our scary predictions seriously.”
pimf
[snip – irrational rant – mod]
“The study reveals that 67 eagles were killed in 5 years by US wind farms other than Altamont Pass…”
Here in Wisconsin, we have one of the largest American Eagle populations in the country (behind Florida I think), and I have had the great pleasure of spotting one here on occasion.
As someone who has a lot of respect for the animal kingdom, there is nothing about wind farms that makes my blood boil more than the hypocrisy and double standard associated with the killing of birds and bats that these wind farms are allowed to get away with. The magnificent American Eagle is supposed to be protected, but here we have a case where a ‘sweetheart’ (and lousy) energy source favored by government is allowed an exemption to the rule that it does not deserve. And then there are all the tax dollars being spent to subsidize them besides. Disgusting.
As for bats, there are of course not exactly the most popular creatures in the animal kingdom because of their appearance and Old Wives tales about them.. They do though play an important role where they eat insects that help to control the insect population.
The wind farm industry is probably not going to go away until we get a president and congress who understand the uselessness of wind farms and pulls the plug on a artificially created industry
that will make little or no meaningful contribution to this country’s energy needs.
The sooner these monstrosities disappear, the better. In the meantime, I can only dream about the day when I might be able to take a mallet to one of them…..
Mickey Reno says: “You’ve not seen a Sharknado until you’ve seen a Category 6 Sharknado.”
Thanks. Made me laugh.
So the consensus is that 97% of climate models are wrong (by an average of 100%),
Are we supposed to laugh or cry?
Nigel Farage shows EU Parliament NASA Arctic Ice cap photos and schools them on global warming. See at 2:30 into this video.
Nigel Farage offers Barroso some cooling news Shows
The Ig Nobels Are (‘were’ given my time zone) Tonight (Harvard University, Mass., Boston USA).
Reading from theGuardian (u supply the url I’m too busy),
“The probability prize was awarded to animal scientists at Scotland’s Rural College for making two related discoveries. ‘First, that the longer a cow has been lying down, the more likely that cow will soon stand up,’ read their citation. ‘And second, that once a cow stands up, you cannot easily predict how soon that cow will lie down again.'”
Now there is the IPCC in an O’Reilly Books Nutshell. These chaps at Scotland’s Rural College need to be sequestered (Bush/Obama style capture, rendition, torture, detention and then imprisonment at GITMO) buy the IPCC and milked for all they know.
In a related matter at the Ig Nobel proceedings, Al Gore was again NOT selected for an Ig Nobel Prize and cannot claim to be an Ig Nobel Laureate, so say the Ig Nobel committee.
😉
I love that Melanie Fitzpatrick spouts the warmest in a decade canard. You’d think a geophysics PhD would have more integrity than that.
Anthony, have you been following the floods in drought plagued Colorado? Funny stuff that global warming, impersonating everything it isn’t.
Mark
Jeff Alberts says:
September 12, 2013 at 6:53 pm
Bah, Sharknados are for wimps. Orcanado is the wave of the future.
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Nah, THIS is the future (or was it the past)… http://www.transformer-ivan.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/Raptor-Shark.jpg Raptor-Sharknado rules!
“Global surface temperature is still rising … 2012 was in the top ten warmest years on record. The period 2001-2010 was the warmest on record since instrumental measurements began,”
As for 2012, on RSS it was only 11th. And as for the “still rising” part, the average anomaly from 2001 to the end of 2010 was 0.265 on RSS, but only 0.183 since then, for a drop of 0.082 on the average.
114 / 117 = 0.97 = 97%.
Hence 97% is the magic number in Climate Science.
CD (@ur momisuglyCD153) says: @ur momisugly September 12, 2013 at 7:21 pm
The sooner these monstrosities disappear, the better. In the meantime, I can only dream about the day when I might be able to take a mallet to one of them…..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Nah make the Hansen’s and Gores and Gleicks take the bat-chomping, bird-slicing eco-crucifixes down with tools they have to made themselves out of rocks and wood.
Let the punishment fit the crime.
PeteP says: September 12, 2013 at 8:20 pm
Bah, Sharknados are for wimps. Orcanado is the wave of the future.
You’ve been taken in. Close examination reveals that image was probably Photoshopped. (97% confidence level.)
CD (@CD153) says:
September 12, 2013 at 7:21 pm
“…The sooner these monstrosities disappear, the better. In the meantime, I can only dream about the day when I might be able to take a mallet to one of them…..”
*
I imagine firing a bazooka – a nice big FOOMP! Bang! Exploding bits and fire raining down. Honestly, I can’t drive past one of those fields and not think FOOMP! Bang!
Now joins the equally inane Precautionary Principle as a Gimme All Your Money Or AGW Will Getcha meme.