Readers surely recall the wild claim yesterday made by researchers from Princeton University and the University of California-Berkeley who reported in the journal Science that even slight spikes in temperature and precipitation have greatly increased the risk of personal violence and social upheaval throughout human history:
Claim: 2°C temperature increase will make people angry
Dr. Indur Goklany writes:
Regarding climate change and violence, here are a couple of slides you should link to on WUWT. Apparently, during the “hottest decades” as some claim the 1990s and 2000s have been, U.S. homicide rates dropped!
Figs. 1 and 2: Source: Claude Fischer, A Crime Puzzle, http://thepublicintellectual.org/2011/05/02/a-crime-puzzle/, May 2, 2011
Fig. 3: Indicators of homicides per 100,000 population in England, thirteenth to twentieth centuries. Note: Each dot represents the estimated homicide rate for a city or county for periods ranging from several years to several decades. Source: Michael Eisner, Long Term Historical Trends in Violent Crime based on Gurr (1981)
It seems that real world data doesn’t support the conjectures from the hallowed halls of academia.
Related articles
- Scientists say global violence could rise with global warming (upi.com)
- Hot and bothered: Climate warming predicted to increase violent conflicts | @BobOHara & @GrrlScientist (theguardian.com)
- Climate change linked to violent behaviour (talesfromthelou.wordpress.com)
- Youth homicide rate hits lowest mark in 30 years (onlineathens.com)
- Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak (ritholtz.com)
- Gun Homicide rates are actually down, not up (buyashotgun.wordpress.com)
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If that’s true the temperature in Chicago must be near the boiling point of water…
Obviously as violence goes up the reporting of violence goes down. We need a computer model to give us the real figures.
No one cares about data Anthony, it is the meme that counts…
I care about data.
Again, prior to the violence wrought by socialism in the 20th century, there was more violence during the cold periods of history – after the fall of the Mycenean civilization in Greece, with the Dorian wars; the Dark Ages and the Muslim conquests following the fall of the Roman Empire; and the conflicts of the Little Ice Age, the Hundred Years’ War between England and France, the Thirty Years’ War in Germany, the Wars of the Spanish Succession, The Seven Years’ War (French and Indian War in America) and Napoleon.
The exception is the violence of the three principal brands of socialism: Soviet and Chinese Communism and Nazism, with the 250 million done to death in the name of “social justice,” which did occur during warmer times – and which, of course, is now the oxymoronic mantra of the AGW crowd.
Data: There are more than 300 million personal firearms in the USA. More guns equals less crime. Who would have thunk it?
Anthony, I wonder if you or anyone else has read the actual study or if it’s paywalled? I can’t help but wonder if they bothered to look at how COLD (and for that matter, drought) affects violence too, or if they only looked at warmth and increased rain…. and all things considered, somehow I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if few or none of their 60 studies even considered the flip side… or the authors ignored it. I’d love to know.
While it is apparent that the AGW “theory” is complete horses*@t, there is validity to the claim that warmer weather brings out crime, at least here in Chicago. At least it is true that violent crime in Chicago is seasonal. By no means do I mean that I believe that the spate of violent crime in Chicago is caused by climate; the more likely cause is cultural decay and a severe manpower shortage for the CPD. But, there is a seasonal trend for violent crime here.
The BBC report on this story actually includes an opposing viewpoint that pretty much sends it into the trash bin:
“However, other researchers have questioned whether climate breeds conflict.
Work published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences suggested that this environmental factor was not to blame for civil war in Africa.
Instead, Dr Halvard Buhaug, from the Peace Research Institute Oslo, Norway, concluded that the conflict was linked to other factors such as high infant mortality, proximity to international borders and high local population density.
Commenting on the latest research, he said: “I disagree with the sweeping conclusion (the authors) draw and believe that their strong statement about a general causal link between climate and conflict is unwarranted by the empirical analysis that they provide.
“I was surprised to see not a single reference to a real-world conflict that plausibly would not have occurred in the absence of observed climatic extremes. If the authors wish to claim a strong causal link, providing some form of case validation is critical.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23538771
Is the BBC attempting to be a legitimate news organization once again?
@michaelwiseguy
Nonsense. Populations elsewhere give up their weaponry in times of piece and violence does not increase. As it is, the US during peace time is more violent (by number of deaths) than most counties during a civil war.
michaelwiseguy says:
August 2, 2013 at 7:54 pm
I’ve always liked the line “An armed society is a polite society.” (At least it is if the gun owners take the responsibility seriously. Perhaps we should teach gun safety in schools.)
A lot of normalization required.for long term data. But never mind that, just compare winter and summer crime rates. Make sure it’s done for various climates too, because at some locations you might find more crime in summer just because people are more willing to get out and do things; sport, dog walking, crime… In hot climates you might find less crime in summer for the same reason – too hot to get out and be busy. All up it’s a rather pointless exercise given how many other more influential variables there are.
I’m always glad to see a post or other note from Indur Goklany here. He almost always brings some fascinating statistics with him. It’s generally stuff I know must be available, but I don’t know where to find it.
Txomin says:
August 2, 2013 at 8:06 pm
Au contraire;
Is Australia staring down the barrel of a gun crisis?
“THERE is a gun battle going on in Australia. As bikier gang members and drug dealers gun each other down on a regular basis, sending fear through the community, authorities seem to be fighting a losing battle to keep firearms out of their hands.
Without scaremongering, here are the facts:
* There have been 39 people shot in Sydney this year, most related to an ongoing bikier war.
* Conservative estimates say there are more than a quarter-of-a-million illegal firearms in Australia.
* Gun ownership in Australia is back at pre-Port Arthur massacre levels.
* Carrying a gun is becoming more common and ingrained in outlaw culture.
* Gun amnesties barely put a dent in the number of weapons.
* Innocent people are being caught up in gun battles.
* There has been a steady increase in gun-related crimes over the past seven years.
http://www.news.com.au/national-news/is-australia-staring-down-the-barrel-of-a-gun-crisis/story-fncynjr2-1226690018325
There’s no possibility of a relationship to energy use and therefore to prosperity.
Surely, their hypothesis was not that a warmer climate causes an increase in violence. If that were the claim then anyone who has moved from Missouri to Florida should be able to testify that it is false. Surely, the claim was that experiencing a warming climate while staying put causes an increase in violence. One problem with that claim is that no one has done it, except in the fantasies of Alarmists. There are many other problems. Suppose that the effects of a warming climate are easy to avoid? And so on. The authors are no doubt wearing those Groucho Marx masks.
Txomin says:
August 2, 2013 at 8:06 pm
Ah yes, that reminds of the April Fool issue of the college newspaper (I was on the photo staff) where a friend of mine in ROTC decked out his uniform with a bunch of medals and insignia. I shot a photo of him sitting cross legged holding a protest sign that said “Piece Now.” I think the editor put it on the front page.
John Pappas says: “At least it is true that violent crime in Chicago is seasonal.”
It is not only seasonal, but strongly correlates with temperature in a certain range (between about 80 and 90F). And not only in Chicago. The explanaiton I heard from police officers was that during warm periods there are simply more people out in the streets, especially in the “disadvataged” neighbourhoods, putting more load on the police force and opening up opportunities for crime.
We tend to forget that we can only enjoy a sort of peace in Chicago due to heavy policing. When the force becomes overcommitted, things tend to get out of hand.
I think you will find those earlier figures will need to be adjusted drastically downwards due to the TOD issue. There is some evidence that in those days most murders were carried out earlier in the morning and later in the evening.
Furthermore, the advances in medical technology today, versus earlier technology, mean more subjects may have been pronounced dead in the early days when they weren’t. Another downward adjustment is needed.
But theses eejits don’t do real-world data, they’re climate scientists…
Every single time there is a global warming claim it is proven wrong when compared to relevant data, no exceptions, this is getting ridiculous.
@John Pappas Chicago –
Since Chicago’s winter weather can certainly be cold enough to discourage people from hanging around outdoors, perhaps that is the reason there’s less crime there in the winter – ?
Midwestern US winters generally can be much colder than winters in western Europe, or even in central Europe, such as the German Mittelland or Poland or Hungary. You have to go into Russia or Finland to get comparable temperatures. Winter temps in Moscow are like Minneapolis, though without the extremes – the 40 below stuff – otherwise common in Minneapolis; Kiev in the Ukraine is comparable to Chicago, though less likely to have 20 below.
Ya but look at that third chart showing English homicides. See how high it was during the Medieval Warm Period? It was much higher than the Little Ice Age….ooooppssss… I forgot, the Medieval Warm Period wasn’t really that warm according to Mann’s Hockey Dick chart. So scratch this lame observation. OK?
Some of the crime stats posted on the original heat-n-anger thread (linked above):
1. Mike Kelter, August 2, 2013 at 5:00 am
2. mkelly, August 2, 2013 at 10:09 am
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And, for you, Txomin, to correct your mistake re: private gun ownership and crime (if you do your own research, you will find Michael above is not only wise, but well-informed):
Chicago’s crime rate is higher just like that of ANY large city where law abiding citizens are not allowed to possess firearms. Here’s one example (yes, I could cite lots more (but I’m not going to hijack this thread to refute you — if you want to find out the truth, you can easily find it online), including that murder rates are higher in countries whose law abiding citizens cannot own guns):
[Source: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/06/04/new-jersey-gun-laws-dont-curb-violence-in-camden/2113737/ ]
And, one more nice comment from yesterdays angrrrr thread, from a sociologist’s perspective:
John Eliyas, August 2, 2013 at 7:36 am
@Janice Moore –
Right on – wide gun ownership discourages crime, the states with the least gun controls have the least gun crime, almost across the board.
Of course the real reason behind gun control advocacy is the same as that which is behind AGW – control freakery. It has nothing to do with preventing gun crime, as the case you cite (Camden, NJ) proves. It is all part of the same meme.