Guest essay by Steve Goreham
Originally published in The Washington Times
On Sunday, Death Valley temperatures reached 129oF, a new June record high for the United States, according to the National Weather Service. Temperatures at McCarran International Airport in Las Vegas reached 117oF, tying the previous record set in 1942 and 2005. National Geographic, NBC News, and other media ran stories attributing the Southwest heat wave to human-caused global warming. But history shows that today’s temperatures are nothing extraordinary.
The United States high temperature record was set in 1913, measured in Death Valley on July 10th. Twenty-three of the 50 US state high temperature records date back to the decade of the 1930s. Seventy percent of state high records were set prior to 1970.
The alarm about climate change is all about one degree. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), global surface temperatures have increased about 1.3oF (0.7oC) since 1880. Proponents of the theory of man-made warming claim that this is evidence that man-made greenhouse gases are raising global temperatures.
One degree over more than 130 years isn’t very much. In contrast, Chicago temperatures vary from about -5oF to 95oF, about 100 degrees, each year.
When compared to this 100-degree annual swing, the rise in global temperatures since the 1800s is trivial, captured by a thin line on a graph.
Nevertheless, NOAA repeatedly raises concern about global temperatures. The NOAA website proclaims that “May 2013 global temperatures were the third highest on record.” This sounds alarming unless one understands that “on record” refers to the thermometer record, which only dates back to about 1880.
Climate changes over hundreds and thousands of years. Data from ice cores show several periods during the last 10,000 years that were warmer than today, including the Roman Climate Optimum at the height of the Roman Empire and the Medieval Warm Period, when the Vikings settled southwest Greenland. The warm and cool eras since the last ice age were due to natural climate cycles, not greenhouse gas emissions. The “on record” period that NOAA references is only a tiny part of the climatic picture.
Global average temperature is difficult to measure. The data sets of NOAA are an artificial estimate at best. They start with a patchwork collection of thousands of thermometer stations that inadequately cover the globe. Station coverage of the oceans and of the far northern and southern regions is inconsistent and poor. To cover areas without thermometers, averaging estimates are made from surrounding stations to try to fill in the holes.
In addition to coverage problems, gauge measurements often contain large errors. Man-made structures such as buildings and parking lots absorb sunlight, artificially increasing local temperatures. Cars, air conditioners, and other equipment generate heat when operating, creating what is called an Urban Heat Island effect.
The accuracy of the US temperature record is questionable. Meteorologist Anthony Watts, creator of the science website WattsUpWithThat, led a team of volunteers that audited more than 1,000 US temperature gauge stations from 2007 to 2011. Over 70 percent of the sites were found to be located near artificial heating surfaces such as buildings or parking lots, rated as poor or very poor by the site rating system of the National Climatic Data Center, a NOAA organization. These stations were subject to temperature errors as large as 3.6oF (2oC).
Simple problems can throw off gauge readings. Temperature stations are louvered enclosures that are painted white to reflect sunlight and minimize solar heating. As the station weathers and the paint ages, gauge stations read artificially high temperatures. A study published last month found that after only five years of aging, temperature stations will record a temperature error of 2.9oF (1.6oC) too high. This is greater than the one degree rise in the last 130 years that NOAA is alarmed about.
In addition to temperature measurement error, NOAA makes “adjustments” to the raw temperature data. According to a 2008 paper, after raw thermometer data is received, a computer algorithm “homogenizes” the data, adjusting for time-of-observation, station moves, thermometer types, and other factors to arrive at the official temperature data set.
This sounds good until one looks at the adjustment that NOAA has added. For temperature data from 1900 to 1960, very little adjustment is added. But after 1960, NOAA adds an upward adjustment to the thermometer data that rises to 0.5oF (0.3oC) by the year 2000. This gives a whole new meaning to the phrase “man-made global warming.”
Heat waves are real just as climate change is real. But a heat record in Las Vegas or one degree of temperature rise since the Civil War is not evidence that humans should be overly alarmed when other factors have been shown to be contributors of the same or greater magnitude than the posited temperature rise from greenhouse gas emissions.
Steve Goreham is Executive Director of the Climate Science Coalition of America and author of the new book The Mad, Mad, Mad World of Climatism: Mankind and Climate Change Mania.
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well…you do have to adjust up for UHI and fading white wash
Anyone have exact dates when pavement instead of concert was started to be used in cities. Seems my records show that heat absorbing pavement and roofing material cane into use just about the time temperature gauges starting showing increases in city temperatures.
Given a ‘secular’ trend of about 1°C natural rebound since the LIA, there is precious little, or F-all, rise left to be explained by CO2. In fact, the increase in CO2 itself is following the demonstrated 800 yr lag of warming oceans from about 1300 AD, height of the MWP.
It’s natural variability all the way down, folks.
I don’t mean to bother the mods going into the holiday. But I’m going to have to start calling them Stable Climate Dworders.
Chris @NJSnowFan said:
July 3, 2013 at 2:31 pm
“Anyone have exact dates when pavement instead of concert was started to be used in cities.”
—————————————
03 December 1979: The Who concert where people were trodden upon as though they were pavement.
Latitude;
RU joking? Those are systemic measurement errors that must be compensated for by adjusting readings DOWN! You’ve got the sign wrong!!
Hi Chris
Good point.
I assume you meant ‘concrete’?
I think the EPA and DOE just gave Latitude a grant based on that statement.
And how much of that increase took place between 1880 to 1940? I maybe wrong here but I vaguely recall that man-made co2 started having a discernible effect after 1950??? Not sure, can’t recall clearly. Ahhhh, here it is, quoted from the chaps at CRU.
So, what I want to know is how much of the warming since 1880 is was actually caused by man? That 0.7C needs to be sliced into 2 pieces.
[1850 to ‘present’ global mean temperature]
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/image/j/l/warmingtrend.gif
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/_nhshgl.gif
while the temperatures at greenland (and north america!) have gone up considerably since the depths of the last ice age, the global average temperature is generally accepted to have only risen between 4-6 degrees Centigrade. Which is why 2 degrees C is considered to be the amount of averaged global temperature rise that will incur catastrophic damage.
Oh, and I should mention UHI, ‘necessary adjustment’s, airport air-conditioning vents, flaking paint on screens revealing darker material, increased research funding, delusions of fame, ill deserved Ig-Nobel prizes. You really do have to ask yourself how much of this hot propaganda is real?
jai mitchell says:
“… the global average temperature is generally accepted to have only risen between 4-6 degrees Centigrade. Which is why 2 degrees C is considered to be the amount of averaged global temperature rise that will incur catastrophic damage.”
======================================
So, the global temperature has already increased by up to 4ºC — with zero global damage or harm — but if it warms another 2º, there will be “catastrophic damage”.
Ri-i-i-i-i-ght.
Chris @NJSnowFan says: July 3, 2013 at 2:31 pm
Come to Richmond, VA, to ride on cobblestones, especially common in alleys.
Actual history:
https://www.asphaltpavement.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=21&Itemid=41
“Called at various times asphalt pavement, blacktop, tarmac, macadam, plant mix, asphalt concrete, or bituminous concrete, asphalt pavements have played an important role in changing the landscape and the history of the U.S. since the late 19th century.”
1913 never happened, it was considered to be an unlucky year so in 1912 an executive EPA order was issued directing the new year to proceed straight to 1914. The climate models have been adjusted to reflect this.
http://www.greenworldtrust.org.uk/Science/Images/ice-HS/noaa_gisp2_icecore_anim_adj.gif
Perhaps that will put things in perspective for you J Mitchell
Scientists who are serious about climate science would insist that existing temperature records must be replaced with new measurement regimes that satisfy all the safeguards that are built into the scientific method. After a few decades for design and implementation and a few decades for gathering data, we might actually know something about temperature change. Anything short of that produces nothing but alarmist propaganda and sceptic debunking of alarmist propaganda.
Would I toss all existing data? Without a doubt. None of it is sufficiently accurate or reliable to support the claims of climate science. To paraphrase Socrates, recognizing one’s ignorance is the beginning of knowledge.
This just in from the BBC…
Climate extremes are ‘unprecedented’
“The Earth experienced unprecedented recorded climate extremes during the decade 2001-2010, according to the World Meteorological Organisation…”
“experienced unprecedented recorded”. That’s an odd turn of phrase.
Anthony writes “In addition to temperature measurement error, NOAA makes “adjustments” to the raw temperature data.”
I’d love to know whether those TOBS adjustments are made from the reading meta data (ie times associated with the reading really did change) or whether they’re from assumed reading time changes due to policy changes.
IMO there will always be legitimate reasons why some measurements are taken at different times even by the best meaning people and I’ve no doubt plenty of people read early in the morning before any policy change and similarly plenty of people read in the evening after the policy change.
So what I’d persdonally like to see is the data underlying those adjustments.
re: My previous comment, I see that Anthony didn’t write it, it was a guest poster, Steve Goreham. Sorry to put words in your mouth Anthony 😉
jai mitchell says:
July 3, 2013 at 2:47 pm
while the temperatures at greenland (and north america!) have gone up considerably since the depths of the last ice age, the global average temperature is generally accepted to have only risen between 4-6 degrees Centigrade. Which is why 2 degrees C is considered to be the amount of averaged global temperature rise that will incur catastrophic damage.
—————————————–
What are you afraid of?
What harm do you expect to come to you?
What makes you think 2°C increase in temp will be bad?
cn
Which is why 2 degrees C is considered to be the amount of averaged global temperature rise that will incur catastrophic damage.
Well Jai, could you supply some evidence for that claim? You see, it is quoted often by the IPCC and others as some sort of agreed upon limit, but I’ve never seen a study justifying that number. It is a number that gets thrown around a lot, but where’s the actual studies that show that it is true? Can you point to any?
In fact, do you even know how the 2 degrees is actually measured? I’ll let you in on a little secret. What you THINK 2 degrees means and what the IPCC actually means are two different things. The IPCC estimates that direct effects of CO2 doubling result in about +3.7 w/m2 which in turn results in about +1 degree. But where does this 1 degree happen?
Temperature and w/m2 vary according to the equation:
P=5.67*10^-8*T^4
With P in w/m2 and T in degrees K. So, average temperature of earth is 15 C or 288 K. Plug 288K into the formula and you will get 390.1 w/m2. Add 3.7 w/m2 and you will get a temperature increase of 0.68 degrees. So where does 1 degree come from?
I know the answer, but I’d like to see if you can figure it out on your own. Perhaps you’ll learn something in the process, though I doubt you’ll even try.
don’t ask me how this got on ABC Australia, tho it is ABC Rural!
3 July: ABC Rural: Rising carbon dioxide is greening deserts
Rising levels of carbon dioxide have increased vegetation growth in the world’s deserts by as much as 11 per cent over the last 30 years.
CSIRO, in collaboration with the Australian National University, used satellite records from arid areas of Australia, North America, Africa and the Middle East to assess changes in foliage growth.
Dr Randall Donohue says carbon dioxide increases the water efficiency of arid-zone plants.
“From 1982 to 2010, carbon dioxide levels have increase 14 per cent,” he said.
“It’s been understood for a while that plants do a lot better under elevated carbon dioxide levels.
“Carbon dioxide is an essential ingredient for plant growth, the more they have, generally the better they do.
“That means plants in dry places can end up being more water efficient, and can grow a little bit more for a given bit of rainfall…
“It will also have implications for carbon farming and carbon accounting, but a lot more research is needed to understand what these implications are.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-03/carbon-dioxide-increase-vegetation/4796990
fixing the market:
3 July: Deutsche Welle: European Parliament votes to revamp emissions trading
Delegates in Strasbourg voted by 344 to 311 to back the delay, with carbon allowance prices having dropped to below 5 euros ($6.5).
The system, introduced in 2005, was designed so that power companies and large industrial concerns could trade carbon permits…
The decision was also praised by the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), who nevertheless added that more could be done. “The European Parliament has done the minimum to rescue the Emissions Trading System from redundancy,” Sam van den Plas, climate change policy officer for the World Wildlife Fund, said. “Member states should back further measures to eliminate these toxic tonnes permanently from the EU’s carbon market.”
However the Federation of German Industry (BDI) said that parliament’s decision “sent the wrong signal.”
“Instead of strengthening the European growth motor of industry, the approach of the EU is unsettling and irritating industry across Europe,” the BDI said.
http://www.dw.de/european-parliament-votes-to-revamp-emissions-trading/a-16928165
3 July: Bloomberg: Alex Morales: UN Charts ‘Unprecedented’ Global Warming Since 2000
The planet has warmed faster since the turn of the century than ever recorded, almost doubling the pace of sea-level increase and causing a 20-fold jump in heat-related deaths, the United Nations said.
The decade through 2010 was the warmest for both hemispheres and for land and sea, the UN’s World Meteorological Organization said today in an e-mailed report examining climate trends for the beginning of the millennium. Almost 94 percent of countries logged their warmest 10 years on record, it said.
“The decadal rate of increase between 1991-2000 and 2001-2010 was unprecedented,” WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud said in a statement. “Rising concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases are changing our climate, with far-reaching implications for our environment and our oceans.” …
Deaths from heatwaves surged to 136,000 in the 10-year period from fewer than 6,000 the previous decade, mainly a result of extreme temperatures in Europe in 2003 and in Russia in 2010, according to the WMO. A total of 511 disasters related to tropical cyclones killed 170,000 people and caused $380 billion of economic damage. Deaths from storms and floods fell…
The average global temperature for 2001-2010 was 14.47 degrees Celsius, according to the report. That’s 0.21 degree warmer than 1991-2000 and 0.79 degree warmer than 1881-1890. …
Sea levels rose at 3 millimeters (0.12 inch) a year, almost double the 20th-century rate of 1.6 millimeters a year…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-03/un-charts-unprecedented-global-warming-since-2000.html
4 July: Bloomberg Slideshow: Tom Randall: Leaked! Proceedings of the Flat Earth Society
Click ahead to view items from the Flat Earth 2013 agenda, areas where public opinion and behavior pay little deference to the findings of pesky evidence-based science.
Note: this slideshow has no intentional relationship to organizations of real humans that may refer to themselves as the Flat Earth Society.
http://www.bloomberg.com/slideshow/2013-07-03/flat-earth-society-s-2013-agenda.html
What caused the previous record temperature in Death Valley???