EU Carbon Trading 'death spiral' continues

kingsford_BBQ
A bag of charcoal briquettes is worth more than a ton of EU carbon right now.

UPDATE: it’s worse than we thought, see below.

Carbon has closed below $4 a ton in a new record low while Deutsche Bank bails

From Reuters:

Deutsche Bank quits carbon market: board member

31 Jan 2013 12:42 Last updated: 31 Jan 2013 15:04

LONDON, Jan 31 (Reuters Point Carbon) – Deutsche Bank has shut its global carbon trading operations, a member of the investment bank’s board of directors said on Thursday.  Source: http://www.pointcarbon.com/news/1.2162216

In addition to the price dropping to below the price of a bag of charcoal briquettes, it may have something to do with this investigation:

Deutsche Bank co-chief named in carbon tax investigation

Two board members at Deutsche Bank, including the lender’s co-chief executive, have been drawn into a police investigation into tax evasion related to the group’s carbon trading business.

Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9740904/Deutsche-Bank-co-chief-named-in-carbon-tax-investigation.html

Meanwhile, carbon closed yesterday at a new record low, losing about 8% of its value yesterday.

EUCarbon_1-31-13

It looks like that by the close of trading today, EUA carbon will have lost about half its value since the peak in early January.

New Zealand’s experiment in carbon trading isn’t looking good either:

NZ carbon finds new record lows amid stable supply

31 Jan 2013 09:59

BEIJING, Jan 31 (Reuters Point Carbon) – Spot permits in the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) fell 6.5 percent week-on-week to close Thursday at NZ$2.45 ($2.05), the lowest weekly closing price ever recorded as fresh supply continued to find its way to the market.

Source: http://www.pointcarbon.com/news/1.2161391

UPDATE: the market has closed today, with another record loss, for a nearly 50% drop in value in January 2013.

pointcarbon_1-31-13

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January 31, 2013 6:56 am

Ponzi schemes tend to collapse some time, some day, at every location.

January 31, 2013 7:00 am

It had to happen. So good news but not the news that Europolitics wanted but if you back a pup you loose.

January 31, 2013 7:06 am

The only way is down…

Chris Beal @NJ_Snow_Fan
January 31, 2013 7:14 am

ENRON ENRON all I can Say. Lock them up.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal

Doug Huffman
January 31, 2013 7:17 am

Only the little guy pays in a Ponzi. Let’s criminalize and nationalize AlGore’s ill-gotten wealth under RICO.

Scarface
January 31, 2013 7:33 am

Interesting would be to find out who has a short position in these EU-carbon credits.
I dare to bet that there will be very GREEN names on that list.

January 31, 2013 7:34 am

A sad but deserved situation for elitist technocrats and their unfortunate investors. It stirs up lyrical memories from Thomas Wayne’s 1959 one-hit wonder, “Tragedy”.
Blown by wind,
Kissed by snow,
All that’s left is the dark below,
You’ve gone from me, oh, oh, tragedy,

January 31, 2013 7:38 am

Making money out of thin air used to be the profession of central banks and counterfeiters. Now anyone can do it, simply by agreeing to not build a power plant or open a new factory and getting paid for the carbon pollution this saves.
It doesn’t take long to draw up thousands of plans for new power plants and factories and then agreeing not to build them in return for money. Here in Beautiful BC big business has been making hundreds of millions through the Pacific Carbon Trust taking taxpayer money out of the school system in return for not building new manufacturing facilities.
In return the schools are allowed to emit the carbon that business avoid by not expanding locally. Instead, the businesses move to China and burn coal exported from BC. So, instead of using power generated in BC from Hydro Dams, businesses are instead using BC coal in China, all paid for by the BC taxpayers.
The power of bureaucracy in action. Able at a single bound to take a good situation and turn it into a disaster, while making someone rich in the process.

January 31, 2013 7:42 am

just another scam, that the greens are behind it matters not. It could just as easily have been the Nigerians.

dp
January 31, 2013 7:55 am

I wonder what this bailout is going to cost us.

January 31, 2013 7:57 am

HaHaHaHa…I can’t wait until all the carbon trading schemes are at 0.

JOHN BELL
January 31, 2013 8:15 am

Can someone please explain to me how this was supposed to work initially? That people should pay someone for the right to burn carbon?

David
January 31, 2013 8:16 am

In the meantime, the UK government has perkily come up with its ‘Green Deal’…
This is a LOAN scheme (at not-exactly-attractive rates), where by you can borrow money (from a private company, not the government) to insulate your home; fit a more efficient boiler; etc, etc. No ‘up-front’ costs (oh – apart from an ‘assessment’ fee – typically £100-£300) and you pay back the LOAN over 25 years (so expect to pay around twice the original cost) through your electricity bill (no word as to whether the power companies will add an ‘administration’ fee for doing this – but I know what my money’s on)…
You move house – the loan stays put. Cue an unsaleable property…
Been well thought through, hasn’t it..?

Peter Miller
January 31, 2013 8:19 am

Fallen another 7% today. According to Reuters the latest price is 3.43 Euros.
Perhaps if Mann produced a bigger, new improved Hockey Stick that might help halt the free fall.

Peter Miller
January 31, 2013 8:20 am

Oops, that’s Bloomberg, not Reuters, reporting today’s price at 3.43 Euros.

January 31, 2013 8:32 am

I hate to be a party pooper but I’d be just a bit wary of this. I’m betting that the climateers, all along, wanted an approach to global warming (or climate change, or dirty weather, or whatever name the marketing types have discovered to keep it fashionable) that would involve command and control. This gives them the excuse to say, “see, the free market doesn’t work”, we need government edicts instead. Carbon taxes anyone? It ain’t over yet.

Sean
January 31, 2013 8:35 am

Good thing the state of California had the good sense to set the floor price of carbon in their cap and trade system at $10.

Paul Westhaver
January 31, 2013 8:43 am

How many carbon markets are there?
Are they all in trouble, assuming the EU’s as being the most robust?

Jaye Bass
January 31, 2013 8:46 am

Making money out of thin air used to be the profession of central banks and counterfeiters. Now anyone can do it, simply by agreeing to not build a power plant or open a new factory and getting paid for the carbon pollution this saves.
It doesn’t take long to draw up thousands of plans for new power plants and factories and then agreeing not to build them in return for money. Here in Beautiful BC big business has been making hundreds of millions through the Pacific Carbon Trust taking taxpayer money out of the school system in return for not building new manufacturing facilities.
In return the schools are allowed to emit the carbon that business avoid by not expanding locally. Instead, the businesses move to China and burn coal exported from BC. So, instead of using power generated in BC from Hydro Dams, businesses are instead using BC coal in China, all paid for by the BC taxpayers.
The power of bureaucracy in action. Able at a single bound to take a good situation and turn it into a disaster, while making someone rich in the process.

Dang…I was about to agree to not build a power plant on my land this week.

January 31, 2013 9:31 am

berple: Making money out of thin air used to be the profession of central banks and counterfeiters. Now anyone can do it, simply by agreeing to not build a power plant or open a new factory and getting paid for the carbon pollution this saves.
Well said. I remember well a scene from a 1967 sit com called “The Second Hundred Years.”. The premise of the show was “Rip Van Winkle”, a 1890’s prospector, “Luke”, is found frozen, thawed out, and tries to make sense of modern America while living with his much older son and grandson.
Luke tries his hand a farming. Luke is approached by a US Dept of Ag. Rep and is told that he can receive price supports for taking land out of production. Luke expresses his surprise at the dinner table.
Luke: “Well that got me to thinking. Suppose I take that money and buy another farm, less fertile but more acreage. I agree not to farm that. And do it again. Pretty soon I’ll be the richest farmer in the country with land that grows nothing but money!”
Grandson: “Welcome to the 20th Century, Grandpa.”

john robertson
January 31, 2013 9:57 am

Equal justice for Bernie Madoff, Paul Jones, both doing time for much lesser crimes.
If the sentences given these two con artists are just, and they are, then our officials that imposed this carbon trading scheme should face absurdly draconian sentences.

richard verney
January 31, 2013 10:18 am

What I want to know is why an individual cannot buy say 50 tonnes of carbon and then pay no green taxes on their electrity supply for many years on the basis that they are carbon neutral and can offset the carbon bonds against CO2 emissions resultant from the energy used. Indeed, why can’t it be off-set say against air travel thereby avoiding the green taxes that the government levies on air travel, or perhaps patrol and the green taxes levied on that etc..
I pay at least £1,000 per year in green taxes on my electrity supply so it would make good financial sense to stock up on say 10 tonnes of carbon bonds and pay no green tax. . .

John West
January 31, 2013 10:39 am

It’s a slippery slope!

thelastdemocrat
January 31, 2013 10:42 am

current level is irrelevant as long as it seems prospective that the UNPRI and everyone else can eventually get a critical mass of green energy commitments. as long as th emomentum is moving in the direction of getting more nations on board bit by bit, then there will be a market in the long run.
there are two markets: one where the govt encourages or requires major portions of the economy to go green, and one where carbon credits exists.
lobbyists can influence policy makers to have their governments go green. this can be lobbied by typical lobbying tactics: buy the politicians
If the govts around the world continue to push the move toward green energy, those investments work, AND as more nations and dollars go into green investments/infrastructure, the more likely that a carbon market is to mature.
what can halt this is if enough experience indicates that the economic benefit simply is not there – such as has been developing in spain. but this factor will have to be pretty big for people to see it and believe it applies to them, as well.
there is always the argument that spain moved too early, before the technology was at the right efficiency, but hey, here is the new technology (with limits disguised in graphs and charts).
so, 1. the carbon market being low does not necessarily mean an end to th ecap-and-trade idea at all; 2. if you have money for speculation: BUY! (notice: this comment is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as financial advice. neither the host of this program nor the radio station…)

Editor
January 31, 2013 10:52 am

Sean says:
January 31, 2013 at 8:35 am

Good thing the state of California had the good sense to set the floor price of carbon in their cap and trade system at $10.

I’m not certain how the California or European deals work, but for RGGI here in the northeast US, their is a floor price – for the auction. There is no floor for the secondary market, but there are so many carbon dioxide allowances available that there is little interest in the secondary market.
The current auction floor price is, umm, I’m not sure. It will be last year’s $1.93 plus a few cents for inflation. The secondary market price has been only a few cents away, but I’m not even sure there is an organized market any more as it used to be handled by
See http://wermenh.com/rggiwatch/ for more.
BTW, RGGI is very good about referring to “carbon dioxide allowances”. I’ve never seen them refer to carbon allowances. They also deal in short tons, I hypothesize that US coal is sold by short ton.
The last annual report on the RGGI market, http://rggi.org/docs/MM_2011_Annual_Report.pdf , says

Trading activity in the secondary market for RGGI CO2 allowances has declined over the past three years. This is reflected in the average daily volume of trading of futures contracts listed on the Chicago Climate Futures Exchange (“CCFE”), which fell from 2.7 million in 2009, to 0.2 million in 2010, to 0.03 million in 2011.

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