From the FECYT – Spanish Foundation for Science and Technology and the snowfalls are now just a thing of the past department comes this press release, one much like those we’ve heard before that have not come to pass.
Maybe the researchers never saw this video from 2010 of massive snowfalls in Spain
Climate change could cause massive losses in Pyrenees ski resorts
An increase in temperatures due to climate change could mean that the Andorran ski resorts have a shorter season in the future, especially in lower areas. A study undertaken by the Polytechnic University of Catalonia and the Andorran Sustainability Observatory has analysed the specific case of the Pyrenean country and predicted that financial losses could come close to 50 million euros.
One of the major challenges when studying climate change effects is to establish the relationship between physical impacts and environmental changes on the one hand, and between these factors and impact on humans on the other hand.
An international study enjoying the participation of the Polytechnic University of Catalonia has investigated the particular case of Andorra and has demonstrated a predicted increase in temperatures as a result of climate change will shorten the ski season in the resorts of the principality.
Furthermore, depending on the predicted climate change scene, a fall in income has been predicted along with lesser adaptation capacity provided by snow production machines.
Published in the ‘Climate Research‘ journal, the study estimates a reduction in the number of skiers, especially in lower altitude resorts.
The mountain regions are considered especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change. “The rapid decrease in glacier mass, quantity and frequency changes of snowfall, level variations and biodiversity distribution are examples of how mountain ecosystems are highly sensitive,” as explained to SINC by Marc Pons from the Sustainability Measuring and Modelling Laboratory of the Polytechnic University of Catalonia and the Andorran Sustainability Observatory and coauthor of the study.
Andorra is a small country in the middle of the Pyrenees between France and Spain with a population of approximately 80,000 inhabitants. It receives 10 million tourists each year according to data from Andorra Turisme 2010, especially during the winter season. Snow tourism is one of its main sources of income used for local development.
The study analysed three ski resorts in the principality: Grand Valira, Pal-Arinsal and Arcalís. And it is based on three possible scenarios as a consequence of climate change: the current situation and two possible future conditions.
Out of the last two, the first considers an increase of 2 ºC in the average winter temperature whereas the second is based on an increase of 4 ºC.
“We have employed these temperature increase figures based on two of the scenarios from the SRES report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which are predicted as plausible for the Pyrenees at the end of the 21st century,” states Pons.
The estimations have allowed them to analyse possible consequences, such as reduction of the ski season over time, the subsequent decrease in the number of skiers and thus what they would spend when visiting the region.
The importance of attitude
In the study, the altitude of skiable terrain is “one of the most determining factors in the vulnerability of the resorts,” adds Pons. An assessment was made of the future snow cover of each one of the tourist resorts at various altitudes: 1500 metres, 2000 metres and 2500 metres.
Pons adds that studying different altitudes “is important to analyse the capacity of the resorts to compensate for climatic variability by using artificial snow production.” He outlines that in recent decades, “resorts have invested significant amounts of money in artificial snow production.”
In the case of Andorra, around 50% of the ski zones are covered by such snow production systems.
In addition, the researcher explains that there are “a great variety within the same region, which means that two resort groups now arise: those that are more vulnerable and those that are resilient, like Arcalís.”
More specifically, if the temperature were to increase by 2 ºC in winter, only the lowest areas of Pal-Arinsal would be affected and the ski season would be shortened by 30%. This would mean a reduction in the number of skiers and investment in the region would be very small.
In contrast, in the case of a 4 ºC increase, the three tourist resorts would suffer from serious reductions in their lower altitude areas, where even the snow production machines could not even help to save the ski season. Nonetheless, the higher areas would remain stable throughout the season.
Delicate Pal-Arinsal and privileged Arcalís
The most critical of situations would be that of Pal-Arinsal, which could not even continue even with snow production machines. On the other hand, Grand-Valira and Arcalís would carry on, although with a shorter ski period.
In this context, a 15% decrease would be recorded in visitors with losses of approximately 50 million euros each season. In this case the resorts receiving the most visitors (Pal Arinsal and Grand Valira) would be affected both at the very beginning and at the end of the season.
Nonetheless, “aside from the figures themselves, the most important factor is the capacity to relate to physical changes,” adds Pons.
The researcher points out that despite the influence of altitude, “there are other determining factors, such as orography and orientation, which have a strong influence and therefore should be considered in future studies.”
This type of study helps governments to acquire deep and detailed knowledge on areas or resorts that are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change, the range of possible impacts and what adaptation measures are more suitable for each specific area.”
Referencia bibliográfica:
Marc Pons-Pons, Peter A. Johnson, Martí Rosas-Casals, Bàrbara Sureda, Èric Jover. “Modeling climate change effects on winter ski tourism in Andorra”. Climate Research.
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Another “what if” based on IPCC projections. Nuf said.
Is this a case of, stupid is as supid is funded again?
If they are so concerned about snow then perhaps they could come take it from here. 53N not much above sea level. UK. From my bedroom window this morning.
http://twitpic.com/bycxic
and last night
http://twitpic.com/by9085
Could not get the car off the drive this morning and ended up in the flower beds. Good thing weather is not climate eh?
Are these guys taking the piste?
They would have a lot less trouble…..if they would stop making a mockery of science and a fool of themselves
If the Marxist get their way, then everyone will be too poor to go skying.
Attitude? Or Altitude? Maybe both.
So no reported analysis yet on the increase in Summer visitors, encouraged by the prospect of a warmer, sunnier climate?
Remember only just a few years ago, hearing the Cypress mountain and the winter olympics had no snow due to global warming? Here is the latest alpine report for Cypress:
New Snow – Mid Mtn. (Over Night): 4 cm
New Snow – Mid Mtn. (24 hrs): 13 cm since 2 PM yesterday; 3 cm since 9:15 AM this morning
New Snow – Mid Mtn. (7 days): 35 cm
Total Snow Fall (Season): 757 cm
Alpine Snow Conditions: Machine Groomed
Snow Depth – Mid Mtn.: 375 cm
http://cypressmountain.com/new-conditions.asp
“If we had some eggs we could have ham & eggs if we had some ham.”
Might I add that if I had $500 million dollars I’d be rich.
If the oceans boil away or the Antarctic melts due to CAGW, then we’ll certainly be in a pickle.
.
.
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harrumph! and a good night to all.
P.S. to zootcadillac – nice pics. Thanks for sharing.
Record global snowfall records here in British Columbia the last couple of years {after the olympics} and far below seasonal temperatures. Absolutely arctic conditions across mid Canadian provinces {-50 c} and continuing blizzard conditions on our east coast.
Surely skiing must qualify as a flippant and unnecessary use of fossil fuels. I am sure that the ski resorts will gladly extinguish themselves as a sacrifice to save the planet from CAGW (Curiously Absent Global Warming).
What doesn’t make sense makes dollars for someone
McCleans third rule of egonomics…………
As the NAO goes into its negative phase, moisture that had been diverted into Norway and increasing their glaciers will now be redirected to southern Europe. These Global warming studies never incorporate the oscillations, only CO2 warming. But [perhaps] that’s because the models do such a poor job with the NAO, ENSO and PDO. I guarantee it will indeed be another “Vinerism”.
I did it and you can too.
Do a search for ski resorts in the Pyrenees.
See how much snow they have.
Hint… lots
Snow would be a thing of the past if it wasn’t for the magical ability of CO2 to cause extreme weather. You see, the snow that falls these days is not “normal” snow. It is “extreme weather” snow. There’s a BIG difference. /sarc
Andorran snow report 7 hours old – snow depth 130-230cm deep, is that enough to ski on?
Magic 8 ball is cheaper and more accurate, Spain being broke, I see a small way to help their beleaguered taxpayers.
Who, in fact, is really benefitting from this study besides the researcher?
The scam continues.
An increase in temperatures due to climate change could mean that Michael Mann could get dandruff … then again maybe not.
LOL especially since Andorra, they have now 65cm of snow starting at 1500m and over 150cm at 2000m according to Meteo France
http://france.meteofrance.com/france/montagne
@ferd berple, yes it was so funny to listen to Suzuki and all the alarmist clowns from UBC and SFU using the lack of snow on Cypress Mountain during the 2010 Olympics as proof of climate change… Since then the longest season, the earliest opening etc…
I was once in Andorra in July. Unbelievably fricking cold when the sun went down. Hardly anyone there and the duty free shops that line the main street were all empty of customers.
Were it warmer, it would boost summer tourism.
That’s not snow that’s Stephen Chu’s whitewash project going global. Move along now folks…
The political warmistas in Washington State were trying to sell that kind of hokum 10 years ago. Local politicians were claiming that Federal dollars will be needed to help the local skiing industry. Almost every year since then we have had greater than normal snowfall at the ski resorts. This year the Olympic mountains have received nearly double the average snowfall and the North Cascade Mountains have about 50% more snow than average.
Despite this, we went and elected a warmista, former congressman Jay Inslee, as governor of our state. The news media is worthless when it comes to reporting failed warming predictions.
The heading ‘The importance of Attitude’ should read ‘Altitude’ surely as it then goes on about the altitude of various resorts.