Sea level rate of rise shown to be partially a product of adjustments

People send me stuff. Here we have another case of value added adjustments that increase the slope, much like temperature.

This email forwarded from Steve Case reads as follows:

The University of Colorado’s Sea Level Research Group just published the 2013 Release #1 of their Global Mean Sea Level Time Series.

sl_ns_global[1]

I discovered that these periodic releases are on the net all the  way back to 2011 Release #1. So I downloaded all nine of them.

2012 release #1 has 628 entries up to January of 2011 so I had Excel’s slope function calculate  the rate of sea level rise for that time series of 628 entries across all nine releases.

What I found is that the rate of sea level rise has been bumped up twice since then, once in 2011 and the the latest in the current release.  Here’s a link to a graph  to illustrate the point:

2vmenpv[1]

http://oi45.tinypic.com/2vmenpv.jpg

Coupled with the GIA increase of 0.3 mm/yr that was made prior to these nine releases the rate of sea level rise has been bumped up 0.43 mm/yr in the last few years.

This sort of thing has been going on more or less regularly and it seems to go only one. way.

Here are the links to the data:

http://sealevel.colorado.edu/files/2011_rel1/sl_ns_global.txt

http://sealevel.colorado.edu/files/2011_rel2/sl_ns_global.txt

http://sealevel.colorado.edu/files/2011_rel3/sl_ns_global.txt

http://sealevel.colorado.edu/files/2011_rel4/sl_ns_global.txt

http://sealevel.colorado.edu/files/2012_rel1/sl_ns_global.txt

http://sealevel.colorado.edu/files/2012_rel2/sl_ns_global.txt

http://sealevel.colorado.edu/files/2012_rel3/sl_ns_global.txt

http://sealevel.colorado.edu/files/2012_rel4/sl_ns_global.txt

http://sealevel.colorado.edu/files/2013_rel1/sl_ns_global.txt

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January 25, 2013 12:16 am

Reblogged this on Climate Ponderings.

January 25, 2013 12:28 am

Typical. Trying to engineer an acceleration to fit the models.
The isostatic adjustment was introduced last year as far as I remember?
(Adjusting for the sinking of the sea floor).

January 25, 2013 12:40 am

So they need to fudge sea level data too eh?

Ronald
January 25, 2013 12:41 am

Why be surprised?
If there is no global warming you make it.
Is there no extreme ice melt you make it.
Is there no sea level rise you make it.
If glaciers wont meld you make them meld even if you have tho use a blowtorch.
Why is this a suprice? We all know AGW or CAGW is FRAUD the only thing to figure out is how far when they and when someone comes out and say stop this is to far.
All I now is that in normal science they already where out of job and possibly in to prison now.

jon
January 25, 2013 12:56 am

Well earlier this was the facts?
http://www.john-daly.com/ges/images/niv_moy.gif
http://www.john-daly.com/ges/msl-rept.htm
“As Fig.20 shows, the current sea level rate of rise after cycle 276 is +0.9 mm/yr, half the rate claimed for the last 100 years, and less than one fifth the rate claimed for the 21st century”
But later:
http://www.john-daly.com/altimetry/t-p.gif
http://www.john-daly.com/altimetry/topex.htm
+2.2 mm/yr
I think it was about this time I read that UNEP wanted Oceanography implemented in the UN like WMO? (sic)
And now its up at :
3.2mm/yr?
Great!

John Peter
January 25, 2013 1:08 am

Reminds me of interview with Nils Axel Morner back in 2007. Not much has changed since then. It would be interesting if the author had inserted tide gauge measurements over the same period.
http://www.climatechangefacts.info/ClimateChangeDocuments/NilsAxelMornerinterview.pdf
“Now, back to satellite altimetry, which shows the water, not
just the coasts, but in the whole of the ocean. And you measure
it by satellite. From 1992 to 2002, [the graph of the sea level]
was a straight line, variability along a straight line, but absolutely
no trend whatsoever. We could see those spikes: a very rapid
rise, but then in half a year, they fall back again. But absolutely
no trend, and to have a sea-level rise, you need a trend.
Then, in 2003, the same data set, which in their [IPCC’s]
publications, in their website, was a straight line—suddenly it
changed, and showed a very strong line of uplift, 2.3 mm per
year, the same as from the tide gauge. And that didn’t look so
nice. It looked as though they had recorded something; but
they hadn’t recorded anything. It was the original one which
they had suddenly twisted up, because they entered a “correction
factor,” which they took from the tide gauge. So it was
not a measured thing, but a figure introduced from outside. I
accused them of this at the Academy of Sciences in Moscow—
I said you have introduced factors from outside; it’s not
a measurement. It looks like it is measured from the satellite,
but you don’t say what really happened. And they answered,
that we had to do it, because otherwise we would not have gotten
any trend!” So we have the adjustments to sea levels and the surface temperature records and I wonder what else. What about ocean heat content?

tallbloke
January 25, 2013 1:08 am

Coupled with the late 2011 ARGO adjustments and the bad splice with XBT data in 2003, the indications are the measurements (which for satellite altimetry have an error of at least +/- 75mm) are being calibrated to radiative greenhouse theory, not anything real on Earth’s surface.

Peter
January 25, 2013 1:09 am

However, i’m sure they reference their data against known surface heights (large salt pans) then use this to correct satellite drift (the adjustment). They must give a reason / data for their correction.
Of all the adjustments in climate, height must be the least murky / easily verified or explained, surely.

Robertv
January 25, 2013 1:17 am

Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner
http://youtu.be/8EMoU8OOsBs

Pethefin
January 25, 2013 1:22 am

I wouldn’t call these value added adjustments since that presupposes agreement on the value of the end-product, rather this is yet another example of values-based-adjustments in accordance with the post-modern-science-activism

Byron
January 25, 2013 1:24 am

(Sigh) Why am I not surprised ? As with most things CAGW related the only acceleration seems to be in the size of adjustments

January 25, 2013 1:25 am

The story of satellite sea level adjustments is even older. The values before 2011 can be assessed via WayBackMachine.
I made an analysis of the results of the adjustments of the ESA and Colorado Sea Level data over the years a couple of month ago (Google translation).
Conclusion, Even though the sea level rise rate has decreased over the years, the rate of sea level rise was kept more ore less constant at above 3 mm/year by applying various “adjustments”. This year it seems, the data is being made fit for the next IPCC assessment report…

Dodgy Geezer
January 25, 2013 1:29 am

…and has anyone asked the University of Colorado for an explanation…?

batheswithwhales
January 25, 2013 2:12 am

Can anyone come up with ONE instance EVER, where adjustments have resulted in less warming, less sea level rise, etc?
If not, this tells a pretty clear story. It is totally unreasonable that all adjustments, year after year in multiple datasets and in multiple scientific disciplines should all contribute in the same direction – towards “confirming” a dramatic global warming.

Toby
January 25, 2013 2:19 am

So excluding GIA, there has been a change of 5% in the rate. The claim is that is fraudulent … surely that is hardly worth the trouble? How so we know that it is not due to a monthly re-calculation?

Lawrie Ayres
January 25, 2013 2:23 am

Climate scientists, advocates and politicians following the AGW line have been shown to exagerate, fudge data and tell lies. They have shown themselves as untrustworthy so I always get suspicious when they make apparently outlandish predictions. These are supposedly educated and intelligent ( sometimes mutually exclusive I realise) people who by now should know they are wrong, wrong wrong. However whilst continuing the false PR some are acting in a way which is at odds with their public utterances. E.g Al Gore is sure sea will rise by up to six metres but buys a waterfront property in SF; Tim Flannery predicts an eight story sea rise but buys a property on the Hawkesbury river just above high tide and accessible only by boat. Tim also sprouts the urgent need for geothermal and has shares in a company that just happened to receive $90 million in Government grants. Unfortunately for Tim the share price has all but hit zero so he doubles his efforts to promote the evils of CO2. Local government has tried to move people from areas seven metres above current sea level stating that sea level rise will inundate these properties. Some people, believing the lies, sell at reduced prices to escape the coming catastrophe and I wonder who buys; folk like Flannery and Gore??
When someone who should know better keeps a discredited scam going and starst profiting from others who believe them I start to wonder. After all our own government is doing just that with the Carbon tax.

DirkH
January 25, 2013 2:40 am

Looks like scientific institutions have entirely fallen prey to activist rent-seekers.

January 25, 2013 2:50 am

How does one go about measuring sea level to a tenth of a millimeter?

Don K
January 25, 2013 2:53 am

That’s interesting. Despite the fact that Topex/Poseidon sea level measurement technology appears to be superior to ERS and tidal gauges, I have come to mistrust the numbers coming out of CU. This doesn’t help.
Tangentially, does anyone know why they seem to be applying a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) to satellite measurements? GIA is necessary and appropriate although not necessarily adequate for tidal gauge measurements where it (partially) corrects for tidal gauges being (slowly) moving platforms. Satellites are moving platforms also, but the satellite motion has already been corrected during orbit determination, and should not, I should think, need additional correction.
Anyway, I no longer trust these guys. I think that they are likely practicing advocacy disguised as science. For a description of how of science is properly done, see Richard Feynman’s quite remarkable “Cargo Cult Science” speech http://www.lhup.edu/~DSIMANEK/cargocul.htm

Bjarne Bisballe
January 25, 2013 3:14 am

Dutch scientist found that the moon has some influence on the measured sea level based on cyclic variations of the orbit of the moon. Paper here:
http://www.citg.tudelft.nl/fileadmin/Faculteit/CiTG/Over_de_faculteit/Afdelingen/Afdeling_Waterbouwkunde/sectie_waterbouwkunde/people/personal/gelder/publications/papers/doc/JCOASTRES-D-11-00169.pdf
The moon pulls the ocean water from the southern to the northern hemisphere in cycles of 18.6 years. The oceans then get more or less the form of pear with the stalk heading north and south alternately. That should have an influence on the sea level of at least at few millimetres and that effect should not be forgotten when you monitor sea levels. You have to monitor for whole cycles of 18.6 years to get correct data. For the time being, the stalk points south.
Besides that effect, the mentioned moon cyclus should, according to this paper:
http://ansatte.hials.no/hy/climate/theClimateArticle.pdf
also have a more general influence on the climate in the northern Atlantic region.

jim2
January 25, 2013 3:15 am

I’ve tried to find the sea level rise on their site that have no adjustments – just the sea level that comes out of the calculations for the “raw” sea level. It seems so dishonest not to post that chart so we can see better the effects of the “adjustments.”

John
January 25, 2013 3:17 am

Would someone please write a book on solely the adjustments you could call it “The adjustment burro”
Dare I say the only real hockey stick.

MieScatter
January 25, 2013 3:26 am

osopolitico, sea level is typical measured with a laser altimeter. An example is on the Jason satellite, and the handbook is here:
ftp://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/allData/ostm/preview/L2/GPS-OGDR/docs/userhandbook.pdf
The error budget shows that an individual measurement expects an uncertainty of the order of cm to ~11 cm.
If I’ve got it right, then that is one measurement. But your uncertainty in measuring an average value gets smaller as you take more measurements. It crosses the equator ~25 times per day. I can’t find the sampling frequency, but the resolution is ~4 km. 12.5 full orbits in a day at ~4 km resolution is up to 10,000 measurements per day (assuming all ocean). Let’s say 6,000 to represent unfrozen ocean. The average cycle length at which they report a value is just under 10 days, so about 60,000 measurements per value.
The error in the AVERAGE value if an individual measurement has a 10 cm error and you have 60,000 independent measurements would be (in metres) 0.1 / SQRT(60000) = 0.0004 m or 0.4 mm.
Given that the error is of the order of tenths of a millimetre then standard scientific practice is to report the value to tenths of a mm. As it’s an average of many values then it is also common to extend the number of significant figures to which you report a value beyond this as well.
These are just back of the envelope calculations, you can read the altimeter papers if you want, but they illustrate that there’s no reason to suspect fraud in the precision they report.

Evan Jones
Editor
January 25, 2013 3:29 am

If they do it NOAA-homogenization style, they’ll be measuring the naturally uplifting areas and the naturally subsiding areas and then adjusting the former data to match the latter . . .

Planck
January 25, 2013 3:38 am

Continental drift has been around for quite some time, causes most sea floor to move, often at millimetres, sometimes centimetres per year. Most of this movement is horizontal but some is vertical. Clearly, the shapes of sea basins are changing continuously.
Surely this movement leads to sea level changes. (Example; try gently squeezing an open plastic water bottle and observe the water level change)
Can anyone tell me just what allowance has been made for these changing shapes? Am I missing something here?

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