Flu outbreaks predicted with weather forecast techniques
BOULDER—Scientists at Columbia University and the National Center for Atmospheric Research have adapted techniques used in modern weather prediction to generate local forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks.
By predicting the timing and severity of the outbreaks, this pilot system can eventually help health officials and the general public better prepare for them.
The study, published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, was funded by the National Institutes of Health and the Department of Homeland Security. NCAR’s sponsor is the National Science Foundation.
From year to year, and region to region, there is huge variability in the peak of flu season, which can arrive in temperate areas of the Northern Hemisphere as early as October or as late as April. The new forecast system can provide “a window into what can happen week to week as flu prevalence rises and falls,” says lead author Jeffrey Shaman, an assistant professor of Environmental Health Sciences at Columbia’s Mailman School of Public Health.
In previous work, Shaman and colleagues had found that wintertime U.S. flu epidemics tended to occur following very dry weather. Using a prediction model that incorporates this finding, Shaman and co-author Alicia Karspeck, an NCAR scientist, used Web-based estimates of flu-related sickness from the winters of 2003–04 to 2008–09 in New York City to retrospectively generate weekly flu forecasts. They found that the technique could predict the peak timing of the outbreak more than seven weeks in advance of the actual peak.
“Analogous to weather prediction, this system can potentially be used to estimate the probability of regional outbreaks of the flu several weeks in advance,” Karspeck says. “One exciting element of this work is that we’ve applied quantitative forecasting techniques developed within the geosciences community to the challenge of real-time infectious disease prediction. This has been a tremendously fruitful cross-disciplinary collaboration.”
Up next: your local flu forecast
In the future, such flu forecasts might conceivably be disseminated on the local television news along with the weather report, says Shaman. Like the weather, flu conditions vary from region to region; Atlanta might see its peak weeks ahead of Anchorage.
“Because we are all familiar with weather broadcasts, when we hear that there is an 80 percent chance of rain, we all have an intuitive sense of whether or not we should carry an umbrella,” Shaman says. “I expect we will develop a similar comfort level and confidence in flu forecasts and develop an intuition of what we should do to protect ourselves in response to different forecast outcomes.”
A flu forecast could prompt individuals to get a vaccine, exercise care around people sneezing and coughing, and better monitor how they feel. For health officials, it could inform decisions on how many vaccines and antiviral drugs to stockpile, and in the case of a virulent outbreak, whether other measures, like closing schools, is necessary.
“Flu forecasting has the potential to significantly improve our ability to prepare for and manage the seasonal flu outbreaks that strike each year,” says Irene Eckstrand of the National Institutes of Health’s National Institute of General Medical Sciences.
Worldwide, influenza kills an estimated 250,000 to 500,000 people each year. The U.S. annual death toll is about 35,000.
The seed of the new study was planted four years ago in a conversation between the two researchers, in which Shaman expressed an interest in using models to forecast influenza. Karspeck “recommended incorporating some of the data assimilation techniques used in weather forecasting to build a skillful prediction system,” remembers Shaman.
In weather forecasting, real-time observational data are used to nudge a numerical model to conform with reality, thus reducing error. Applying this method to flu forecasting, the researchers used near-real-time data from Google Flu Trends, which estimates outbreaks based on the number of flu-related search queries in a given region.
Going forward, Shaman will test the model in other localities across the country using up-to-date data.
“There is no guarantee that just because the method works in New York, it will work in Miami,” Shaman says.
About the article
Title: Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza
Authors: Jeffrey Shaman and Alicia Karspeck
Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (Abstract)
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I guess immunology and nutrition isn’t their strong suit. The reality is that we don’t get enough vitamin D during the winter.
http://www.vitamindcouncil.org/news-archive/2006/epidemic-influenza-and-vitamin-d/
Pretty simple, really… I’ve tried it for 4 years and no flu. Best of all, no yearly sinus infection that took forever to get over.
You can thank sun scare for widespread vitamin D deficiency.. It belongs to junk science with CAGW…
PLUS, we tend to stay inside more and get less fresh air.
I can tell you this, I won’t take vitamin D supplements or any vitamins at all. Unless you get your vitamins by food, most of it leaves your body when you pee. I’ve only gotten the flu twice in my life. I practice good hygiene but I don’t overdo it like some do. But when I was a kid, I got sick a lot, just not the flu. I think that is the reason why I don’t get sick often now.
Could it be a coincidence that the lead author’s name is Shaman? Just saying…..
“I can tell you this, I won’t take vitamin D supplements or any vitamins at all. Unless you get your vitamins by food, most of it leaves your body when you pee.”
There is very little vitamin D in our diets. Fatty fish is a fair source. Humans generate D with skin exposure to UVA.
During the winter, D supplements are your best bet.
I sure hope their results are better than the weather forecasting I’ve encountered. Otherwise they’d be better off reading entrails.
DLBrown says:
November 27, 2012 at 6:00 pm
Phew, thought it was just me 😉
DaveE.
“…real-time observational data are used to nudge a numerical model to conform with reality…”
———————————–
Instead of subjective biases nudging models to conform to an agenda? What the hell kinda scientists are these!?!
I know many will take me to task for being so heartless but 35 thousand out of 350 million, its a fair trade. I am concerned about the methodology. It seems that estimating humidity seven weeks in advance is about as good as estimating my golf score for the next round. Just a reminder that correlation is not causation and we had better be sure the collaborations are meaningful.
Hum, not collaborations but correlations.
Should remember that ‘flu’ is short for ‘influenza’
which itself is short for ‘influenza di fredo’
‘influenza di fredo’ is Italian for ‘Influence of Cold’
Cold and sunshine do co-vary of course, as do lots of different human behaviors.
But human mortality from all causes peaks during the cool season and troughs during the warn season. ( true in each respective hemisphere ).
Remind me again, why do we want the planet to cool down?
“. . . wintertime U.S. flu epidemics tended to occur following very dry weather.”
Well then, Washington State, particularly the wet side, should be flu free in the near future. Scott Sistek or KOMOnews provides an undate on the “new normals” for the region and the wet November. Air continues to come off the Pacific so temperatures are more than snow warm, although the highest elevations have had snow. North Cascades Highway is closed.
http://www.komonews.com/weather/blogs/scott/November-lives-up-to-its-loftier-expectations-180935741.html
I can endorse the first comment, by ‘nerd’…and immunology and nutrition IS my strong suit — I earned a PhD in immunology and medical microbiology at Stanford back in the 1970s. Dr. Cannell at the vitamindcouncil considers that most people need about 5000 units per day, which means the traditional advice is about an order of magnitude too low. And, many conditions are helped by keeping calcidiol (the first metabolite of D3 made in the skin or taken as a supplement) levels at about 50 nanograms per ml. The conventional standard is 30, and very many people that reside in the higher latitudes are deficient even by that standard. Dark skin and obesity are also risk factors. Older skin is only half as good as that of younger people in the initial production.
You cannot get enough D3 from sunshine in the winter unless you reside in the tropics. If your shadow is longer than you are tall, the UV is not high enough. Dr. Cannell first became aware of the flu aspect when he gave a ‘high’ (actually the correct) dose to a ward of institutionalized patients at a state hospital who did not get any sun. His ward escaped the flu season.
There has been an explosion of research in recent years, and the other major website on D3, the vitamindwiki, has a chart on the home page that shows how many papers have been published versus the year. There is still a need for more randomized controlled trials (RCT) to convince the older docs, who were taught that ‘high’ doses are toxic. The semi-official Institute of Medicine (IOM) is still under the influence of ultra-conservatives who think that only bone health is influenced by calcidiol levels.
The conventional combination vitamin pill has too much vitamin A relative to the D3, according to Cannell — apparently there is some competition for uptake. The Weston A. Price foundation is more positive about vitamin A and thinks that both are needed for flu resistance. You can google the Price foundation for more info on that point.
The vitamindwiki has more data and links — about 3000 pages — but Cannell is probably the better source for most people. Note his commentary on traditional claims of toxicity, the need for co-factors such as vitamin K2, etc. There is a section on specific medical conditions. He has also published a popular book to spread the word.
There is also info on D at uvadvantage.org by Dr. Hollick. One of the presentations is a talk he gave at a medical symposium in Europe. Requires Internet Explorer.
Flu is more common in the winter because the gel-like coating that protects the inner virus from dying on a surface stays intact at lower temperatures and breaks down at warmer temperatures allowing the live virus to die from exposure, put in overly simple terms.
35K deaths a year. Not by a longshot. That CDC figure is a combined number between pneumonia and influenza deaths. If you turn to the next page in the CDC report they break it down to the details. Less than 1000 deaths due to flu and more than 34K deaths due to pneumonia.
But when you’re trying to scare people about the flu….. it’s OK to be off on the details by 3400%.
A lot like AGW, heh?
Furst
Interesting. People might want to google “Google Flu Trends” if they’re not familiar with it. It generally seems to do quite well with indicating where things are at in various states of the US at the moment.
– MJM
A gripping story. Correlation coefficients? Significance tests? Sorry, but I’ll wait for a replication before turning handsprings.
“Because we are all familiar with weather broadcasts, when we hear that there is an 80 percent chance of rain, we all have an intuitive sense of whether or not we should carry an umbrella,”
And what does our intuition tell us if there is only a 10 percent change of rain?
My experience tells me to bring an umbrella even if there is a slight chance of rain.
Flu deaths reality check
http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/story/2012/11/22/flu-deaths-crowe.html
The numbers we do have don’t even come close to the computer estimates. In Statistics Canada’s “deaths and mortality” table, under “cause of death: influenza,” there were only about 300 deaths a year between 2000 and 2008. Public health officials don’t trust that number. They believe it underestimates the true death toll from flu.
But Jefferson believes the models overstate the risk from influenza. “There are no real figures on deaths from influenza. They don’t collect that information,” he said. “So if they don’t collect that information, how do they know it’s a threat? And if they don’t collect that information, how do they know that their policies will work? This is called faith-based medicine, not evidence-based medicine.”
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Flu vaccines: University of Minnesota study challenges effectiveness
http://www.ksdk.com/print.aspx?storyid=343148
Michael Osterholm with the university’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy looked at more than 12,000 peer-reviewed publications, documents transcripts and notes dating back to 1936. His team of researchers found that during some flu seasons the vaccine was not as effective, especially for the elderly.
“We found that current influenza vaccine protection is substantially lower than for most routine recommended vaccines and is suboptimal,” Osterholm said.
The three year study found the injectable trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine protects adults at a rate of about 59 percent and didn’t offer much protection to children or seniors.
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(for those concerned about going from 400iu/day to 4000 or more:)
http://www.vitamindcouncil.org/about-vitamin-d/what-is-vitamin-d/vitamin-d-toxicity/
Published cases of toxicity, for which serum levels and dose are known, all involve intake of ≥ 40000 IU (1000 mcg) per day. 1 Two different cases involved intake of over 2,000,000 IU per day – both men survived.
This study makes no sense. 2 points:
1: calls to 9-11 are a better indicator of what is hitting us than hits to google.
A more immediate and local measure of flu outbreak is needed. 9-11 is it. Another source is emergency room visits.
These indicators of attack rate are not utilized simply because we have not grasped the value and developed the system.
9-11 is seen as a low-level public service. This is empirical truth. Look at the avg salary, turnover, and educational level of 9-11 operators. They are fine, doing a noble job. It is us, the community, that are failing. Failing to realize that 9-11 calls and ER visits tell us what is going on. We do not have coordinated local systems.
2nd:
There is a lag time between getting flu shot and developing imunities to flu.
This is a go/no go question.
Are people going to honestly think: humidity has gotten to or below [critical level]; therefore I will immediately act to achieve immunity in [time span] days.
The weather forecast is far enough in the future to inform you regarding jacket/no jacket, umbrella/no umbrella, outdoor wedding/no outdoor wedding.
For humidity to be an effective predictor of risk, you must have time to get protection.
Is there more flu in more humid places? D’oh! I did not mean to ask that and kill the gravy train.
Man, I wish I could dream up these compelling but worthless grants.
I am doomed to thinking up cutting edge assumption-breaking ideas that do not neatly fit into a headline.
it looks like the CLIMATE will end the CAGW scam sooner rather than later:
28 Nov: Daily Mail: Now SNOW is set to fall as Britain faces coldest winter for 100 years
Temperatures to plummet to minus 3C this week and could fall as low as 20C in December
Fears that snow blizzards could close roads and shut down rail networks as winter takes hold
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2239556/Now-SNOW-set-fall-Britain-faces-coldest-winter-100-years.html
Oh great, yet another data-mining exercise – and when flu comes at the ‘wrong’ time, I suppose they will put it down to the fact that they haven’t yet incorporated AGW in their model (p.s. can we have some more money for that purpose?!).
Living in Mexico, I have two recurrent health problems: intestinal / food poisoning issues (even after 18 years here), and flu (not colds), far more than when I lived in my native, cold and wet, UK. If we can improve understanding and prediction of flu outbreaks, great! Viruses are very weird, and RNA viruses like influenza even more so than DNA ones. This research is not, of course, absolute truth, but I would say, welcome and interesting.
Marc says:
November 27, 2012 at 8:24 pm
“Flu is more common in the winter because the gel-like coating that protects the inner virus from dying on a surface stays intact at lower temperatures and breaks down at warmer temperatures allowing the live virus to die from exposure, put in overly simple terms.”
Interesting ! Do you have a link? It would explain the funny situation that we all know the flu is a virus infection, and yet you tend to get it when it’s cold. When you mention the virus, there are all kinds of ecplanations, like, people tend to cluster “inside” when it is cold, and so on.
But here we have a scientific explanation/theory that sounds reasonable. Again; Link?
thelastdemocrat wrote, “I am doomed to thinking up cutting edge assumption-breaking ideas that do not neatly fit into a headline.”
Don’t feel too bad. The people who DO think up the headline stories aren’t always happy with how the headlines end up looking:
http://vitals.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/11/27/15491927-kids-risk-of-whopping-cough-rises-after-final-shot
I shouldn’t really complain. Given the state of editorial literacy today I should just be grateful the headline wasn’t “Final shot lead to risk of whopping cough.”
:/
MJM