This model run (ECMWF) has Hurricane Sandy making a near bulls-eye on the Outer Banks of North Carolina with some impact on Norfolk, Washington, and Baltimore. It has some (but not all) of the components of the devastating 1954 Hurricane Hazel, which has a few folks worried.
The good news is that the National Hurricane Center puts it further out to sea:
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA OVERNIGHT...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS SANDY MOVES OVER EASTERN CUBA...WITH SOME RESTRENGTHENING EXPECTED AFTER SANDY MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. KINGSTON JAMAICA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 44 MPH...70 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM JAMAICA IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EASTERN CUBA THIS EVENING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... JAMAICA...1 TO 3 FT SOUTHEASTERN CUBA 3 TO 5 FT CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
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Plenty of models have this ruining our month up here in Rhode Island. More here:
http://talkingabouttheweather.wordpress.com/2012/10/24/computer-models-hurricane-sandy-to-slam-northeast/
Not good if it doesn’t turn away from the coast. I’m rooting for the models this time.
I guess one will have to make landfall eventually, …..
I live in the Baltimore area and there is a restaurant just off the Beltway that is next to the Potapsco river. To this day, you can go into the bar and see where the high water mark from Hazel was recorded.
On a more personal note, my daughter and her new husband are scheduled to sail from Baltimore on Sunday mid-day for a weeks cruise to the Bahamas. I think I’ll get them sea sick pills as a going away present.
Could be a repeat of Hurricane (Nor’easter) Noel from early Nov. 2007. Cause some minor damage/power outages up here in Nova Scotia.
The first sailboat race in the 2012 Frostbite Series is scheduled for Sunday in Hampton Roads.
I so prefer 5kts instead of 35…
Of course, if it does hit the coast, climate alarmists will cherry-pick that as an undeniable “proof” of AGW.
Give the central Atlantic states a cold arctic air blast to boot and maybe we can have a foot or so of fresh snow for the opening of hunting season early Nov. Ye haa!
“Let’s hope this forecast for Hurricane Sandy is wrong”
I’m sure it is wrong. The most accurate model, produced by GFS ( Global Forecast System), estimates landfall much further North, in New England.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201218_model.html (red track=GFS)
Some of the confusion may be caused by the so-called “ensemble models”, which are comprised of about twenty less stringent variations of GFS with initial/boundary conditions spread over the possible extremes of these preconditions (pink tracks). The GFS (white track) is the most stringent, with all parameters set for computing the most likely path.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201218_ensmodel.html
The idea behind this ensemble is an attempt to render the extreme “what if” boundaries of where the storm could feasibly meander, given a wide variety of hypothetical preconditions.
“The idea behind this ensemble is an attempt to render the extreme “what if” ……………………………. given a wide variety of hypothetical preconditions.”
Oh, like climate models !!
How about we pray for a little Norfolk to Boston urban/national renewal.
We could build new financial and governemtn capitals in, oh, Argenta IL or Friendship KY, and Dodge City KS or maybe Mullen in Hooker county NB. No air conditioning this time. Look what happened when we installed it in DC back in 1929.
Yesssireee a fresh, clean, free start. A new dawn for America! I’m feeling more optimistic, already.
Wow! I musta dozed off through the summer. How did we get all the way to “Sandy” (# 18) in another conspicuously un-stormy year?
“Global warming works in mysterious ways” – McKibben/Borenstein/Trenberth/Gore/etc
Apparently one thing that will keep it from going out to see is the currently negative NAO. That’s what brought the snow storms into the mid-Atlantic after the Copenhagan COP a few years ago.
The NHC is expecting it to go extratropical around latitude 37, which means lesser wind near the center, but also means the wind field broadens. Think Nor’easter on steroids, and note that some of the worst storms in New England have been nor’easters. So, could be interesting.
The NHC also notes in their more general discussion at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/242053.shtml :
“Oh, like climate models !!”
Yes, ‘all models are wrong’, but these GFS ensemble models are often useful. They represent the extreme boundaries of where the storm could feasibly go given a wide range of possibilities (some of which are considered very unlikely). But unlike climate models, the GFS ‘most likely’ path forecast is usually very accurate.
Easily verifiable by marking these words: “Sandy will make landfall in New England”
Johanus,
I was under the impression that the ECMWF is the gold standard and the GFS is far behind. Cliff Mass certainly thinks so. Where did you get your claim about the GFS?
“Easily verifiable ”
Oh then my mistake… NOT like climate models. 🙂
The Wall Street Journal warns about what it is calling a snor’eastercane.
“Regardless of the exact landfall location on the East Coast, impacts will be felt from Florida to Maine. Nearly every single major weather model now shows the eventual “phasing,” or capture, of Hurricane Sandy by an intense polar airmass.”
[ … ]
“In a nearly unprecedented step, the National Weather Service has ordered a nationwide doubling of weather balloon launches starting Thursday afternoon in an attempt to get a better handle on this unusual atmospheric setup.”
http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2012/10/24/weather-journal-when-hurricane-meets-snowstorm/?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines
Johanus says:
October 24, 2012 at 2:40 pm
The GFS had the storm in a different place today. I’ll put my money on the ECMWF. Regardless, I hope folks are planning for the worst and getting ready now.
“The good news is that the National Hurricane Center puts it further out to sea:”
Good news for who…the people of the south Mid Atlantic? Not good news for those of us who live in the northeast. Also Johanus, how long have you been watching the GFS for…? EURO, while more inconsistent this year, is the gold standard as Matt Skaggs said. EURO has better physics,
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_18.gif
Hazel
http://www.ec.gc.ca/ouragans-hurricanes/default.asp?lang=En&n=5C4829A9-1
NYC? Could happen.
That is the first turn to the northwest I’ve seen.
Yes, the coast bears watching.
Nice heads up, Anthony.
Sort of Hurricane Ryder Cup! Only this time, this Brit (no way Euro) is firmly in the NHC team, Sandy go east young man, go east
RE: ” clipe says:
October 24, 2012 at 3:59 pm…”
Thanks for including the link:
http://www.ec.gc.ca/ouragans-hurricanes/default.asp?lang=En&n=5C4829A9-1
The thing that puzzled me about Hazel in 1954 was the fact Hazel didn’t “die” as most hurricanes do, once over land. The above link, by separating Hazel into the primary hurricane which did die, and a “Hazel 2” which developed on the cold front close but southwest of the original center, shows how a storm can keep its strength even while “transitioning.”
If Sandy doesn’t just escape out to sea, (which still might happen,) and instead cuts back sharply to the northwest, the “transitioning” of Sandy into a nor’easter could be a number of different scenarios. Perhaps it will simply ruin the development of any nor’easter, and create a stalled front with amazing rains. However it also might fuel a “bombogenesis” of epic proportions.
I’ve read descriptions of how swiftly the Blizzard of 1888 exploded, dictated by fishermen who were out to sea as it happened. Things went from a partly cloudy, spring-like day to black clouds very quickly, and then suddenly those fishermen were fighting for their lives in a screaming gale, (back in the days of sail.)
In other words, even as a hurricane dies, a nor’easter can spin up with amazing speed, especially when you mix juicy, tropical air with an arctic blast. I am not taking Sandy lightly.
I’m getting mixed messages. This post mentions a model showing Sandy hitting NC and the National Hurricane Center putting it out to sea. I was rooting for it to stay at sea. On drive time radio coming home today, one weather segment mentioned models showing Sandy hanging a left and going inland across New England. I missed the local TV take on this but it wouldn’t surprise me a bit if they called another path.
I know forecasting the path of a hurricane is a cr@pshoot, but this is a bit ridiculous.