This time Dr. Judith Curry weighs in. In an email to me earlier this week she revealed that she has been quite busy with this rebuttal (to warmists) and assisting the Mail with this update to the story that appeared last week. Bottom line, the Met Office rebutal was more in agreement than not and Dr. Curry suggests ‘Take a lesson from other scientists who acknowledge the “pause”.’– Anthony
Last week The Mail on Sunday provoked an international storm by publishing a new official world temperature graph showing there has been no global warming since 1997.
The figures came from a database called Hadcrut 4 and were issued by the Met Office and the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at East Anglia University.
We received hundreds of responses from readers, who were overwhelmingly critical of those climate change experts who believe that global warming is inevitable.
But the Met Office, whose lead was then followed by climate change campaigners, accused The Mail on Sunday of cherry-picking data in order to mislead readers. It even claimed it had not released a ‘report’, as we had stated, although it put out the figures from which we drew our graph ten days ago.
The Mail on Sunday revealed figures which appeared to show a 16-year ‘pause’ in global warming
Another critic said that climate expert Professor Judith Curry had protested at the way she was represented in our report. However, Professor Curry, a former US National Research Council Climate Research Committee member and the author of more than 190 peer-reviewed papers, responded:
‘A note to defenders of the idea that the planet has been warming for the past 16 years. Raise the level of your game. Nothing in the Met Office’s statement . . . effectively refutes Mr Rose’s argument that there has been no increase in the global average surface temperature for the past 16 years.
‘Use this as an opportunity to communicate honestly with the public about what we know and what we don’t know about climate change. Take a lesson from other scientists who acknowledge the “pause”.’
The Met Office now confirms on its climate blog that no significant warming has occurred recently: ‘We agree with Mr Rose that there has only been a very small amount of warming in the 21st Century.’
See the full article with Q&A here
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“We received hundreds of responses from readers, who were overwhelmingly critical of those climate change experts who believe that global warming is inevitable.”
Well then they are wrong. More CO2 with all other things equal means higher temperatures in the future. What’s up for debate is how big the effect will be, and whether that is a good or bad thing (it would be good to delay or stop the next ice age).
A smile rose in the East.
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Looks like a hockey stick to me 😉
Forget the War on Women the War on Data continues apace.
Brian Macker says:
October 21, 2012 at 6:04 am
“ More CO2 with all other things equal means higher temperatures in the future.”
Well there’s a nice little cop-out. Whoever said all other things would be equal? If the feedbacks are negative then in the short term at least, more CO₂ means lower temperatures in the future.
The MET office statement says that the trend over the 16 year period is “about 0.03°C/decade”, however it doesn’t mention that the error on the linear fit is far larger than that – 0.15°C. Even Skeptical Science give an error of 0.152 see here.
Therefore a correct statistical statement is that the data show a trend of 0.0 ± 0.1°C
Actually the question is whether or not CO2 is the ‘evil game changer’ it is claimed. Research on nuclear submarines suggest a different scenario. The average CO2 level on an operational submarine may be as high as 2,000 ppm, but is generally around 700 ppm (I think Anthony has a post on this somewhere) which rather refutes some of the claims of ‘heat’ trapping as the submarines are able to maintain a fairly stable internal temperature, admittedly with air conditioning to regulate it. The bigger problem at the upper end of the scale is the narcotic effect on the brain. But at 700 ppm it is not measurable.
If Hansen et al are to be believed, these submarines should be unbearably hot after a very short patrol. They’re not. In fact some compartments have a heating problem.
Brian Macker —
Other things aren’t equal. They rarely are. Other things being equal, if I eat more cholesterol, my levels will rise. But they don’t. Other things being equal, if we add cholesterol lowering drugs to statins, the death rate will fall. But it doesn’t. Other things being equal, if we change from saturated to unsaturated fats….
We are dealing with complex systems. Rising CO2 might raise levels, or it may be counter acted by negative feedback, of complex sorts.
Other things being equal, raising taxes and lowering spending will always reduce the deficit. Yes, tell it to the Greeks!
give thanx david rose, judith curry, anthony watts, steve mcintyre, joanne nova, andred montford and all who have helped to rescue the scientific method from a dangerous shift back to scientific dogma.
Brian Macker says:
October 21, 2012 at 6:04 am
Well then they are wrong. More CO2 with all other things equal means higher temperatures in the future.
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Have you seen the studies by Ferenc Miskolczi ? Deriving his results from the analysis of weather balloon data compiled over 60 years, he has shown that, as the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased, there has been a matching (in its effect) reduction in water vapor thereby maintaining the greenhouse effect in stable equilibrium.
http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/The_Saturated_Greenhouse_Effect.htm
The other Gary’s aren’t going to be very happy about this 😉
Observed GMST Least Squares Trends to verify whether global warming has stopped
GissTemp
1990-2005=> 0.21 deg C/decade
1997-2012=> 0.09 deg C/decade
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from:1990/plot/gistemp/from:1990/to:2005/trend/plot/gistemp/from:1997/to:2012/trend
Hadcrut3
1990-2005=> 0.24 deg C/decade
1997-2012=> 0.01 deg C/decade
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1990/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1990/to:2005/trend/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1997/to:2012/trend
Hadcrut4
1990-2005 => 0.21 deg C/decade
1997-2012 => 0.06 deg C/decade
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1990/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1990/to:2005/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1997/to:2012/trend
Conclusion
From the above observation, for all the datasets the trend has decelerated and it is about zero for Hadcrut3.
The above are the fact as the teachings of Feynman.
I wonder if there is a 16 year pause in the unadjusted data
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2012/10/21/defiling-the-past/
Garymount, I’m one of the Garys that agrees with your assessment on the other garys 😛
The Met Office now confirms on its climate blog that no significant warming has occurred recently: ‘We agree with Mr Rose that there has only been a very small amount of warming in the 21st Century.’
That’s still a lie. If they were honestly attempting to speak the truth they would say there has been statistically insignificant warming in the 21st century.” That’s as good as none at all, not “a very small amount.”
However, most ingested cholesterol is esterified and esterified cholesterol is poorly absorbed. The body also compensates for any absorption of additional cholesterol by reducing cholesterol synthesis.[6] For these reasons, cholesterol intake in food has little, if any, effect on total body
cholesterol content or concentrations of cholesterol in the blood.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cholesterol
clivebest@6:21
“Even Skeptical Science give an error of 0.152”
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I would suggest that you carefully examine the methodology of anything SS indicates. They hold the rank of being #1 as the worst cherry pickers of all time.
And they keep finding imaginary warming. Delusional is a nice term to describe their outcomes.
We have not warmed for 16 years. That is what the data shows and it will soon be 17.
Brian Macker says:
October 21, 2012 at 6:04 am
“Well then they are wrong. More CO2 with all other things equal means higher temperatures in the future. What’s up for debate is how big the effect will be, and whether that is a good or bad thing (it would be good to delay or stop the next ice age).”
Climate change is the one constant we can depend upon. We know for a fact all other things will not be equal. So the real challenge is to find out if future climate change will be positive or negative in the sense of what is good for mankind. In fact, its probable that positive temperature increases, should that be the result, will be positive for mankind. It just goes to show how anti-progress the progressive movement has become. Its gotten to the point where politicians lie so much that nobody that follows them knows if they are coming or going.
Judith Curry wants us to acknowledge the “pause”, how does she know, it could be a peak not a pause on the way up.
Girma says
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/21/update-and-confirmation-of-global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago/#comment-1116751
Henry says
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2012/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2012/trend/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2002/to:2012/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2002/to:2012/trend
looks like something suspicious on the 2007 results hadcrut 4/
I trust my own results better
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2012/10/02/best-sine-wave-fit-for-the-drop-in-global-maximum-temperatures/
Thank you, Dr. Curry.
It is a shame more papers don’t report this story.
Climate and Climate change according to the metoffice
Sounds like a school presentation, spot the “mistakes”
IT IS ALL ABOUT SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IN OUR PLACE IN TIME AND SPACE.
Since the Cycle that began around 1976 and including climate lag, the cycles have been deceasing until 2008 and those three cycles generated our global warming that incorporates the start of Arctic Ice measurements in 1979.
Now we are in a solar minimum that is mirroring the weather and climate conditions that came about from a flat sunspot cycle that looks like Devil’s Tower. The sunspot minimum, which is more acurately measured than the ones in 1700 and 1800 will give a future generations a better idea of sunspot activity effects on future weather and climate.
Climate changes a bit one season at a time.
The “Pause” is the first part of the 21 Cty-temp ‘Plateau” as already widely
recognized and we give the plateau description in
http://www.knowlegdeminer.eu/eoo_paper.html
The plateau – shape is visible to the blind, continues, no upward Warmist temp
spike is expected, whether one calculates a 0.03 C increase or not. The
upward Warmist temp spike is only hope of the “Church of AGW”. JS
Never forget that the last millennium 1000 – 2000 AD was the coolest millennium of the Holocene so far and if we are true to history after 10,000 good years, we could fall right of the edge into a real ice age any millennium soon. Dalton minimum conditions are already on the way for the coming 40 years. The only question is whether cooling will continue or perhaps recover with some further warming in which case Man-kind will be really lucky perhaps for a further millennium or two.