I’ve been watching the JAXA sea ice data on the WUWT sea ice page intently for the last few days. Click to enlarge.
I was ready to call the minimum this morning, but thought I’d get a second opinion, so I wrote to NSIDC’s Dr. Walt Meier
On 9/19/2012 8:34 AM, Anthony wrote:
> I think we’ve reached the turning point for Arctic Sea ice today, do
> you concur?
> Anthony
who responded with:
Yep: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
If you’re interested I could write up a guest post some time soon (maybe
this weekend); might be useful to expound a bit more on the differences
between NSIDC and MASIE/IMS (it’s still just a bit higher than us, but
as you’ve probably seen it did pass below its 2007 level). Nice
interview on PBS by the way.
walt
__________________________________________________________
Walt Meier Research Scientist
National Snow and Ice Data Center Univ. of Colorado
UCB 449, Boulder, CO 80309 walt@xxxx.xxx
Tel: 303-xxxx-xxxx Fax: 303-xxxx-xxxx
“If we knew what it was we were doing, it would not be
called research, would it?” – Albert Einstein
__________________________________________________________
Walt, thanks for the compliment about my PBS interview. As for the guest post, I’ll trade you.
I’ll trade you a guest post on WUWT for making good on your promise of NSIDC “eventually” publishing your daily data like JAXA and other sea ice monitoring outlets do.
Quite a lot of time has passed since that promise was made. Thanks for your consideration – Anthony
Worth noting is this statement from the NSIDC today:
On September 16, 2012 sea ice extent dropped to 3.41 million square kilometers (1.32 million square miles). This appears to have been the lowest extent of the year. In response to the setting sun and falling temperatures, ice extent will
notnow climb through autumn and winter. However, a shift in wind patterns or a period of late season melt could still push the ice extent lower. The minimum extent was reached three days later than the 1979 to 2000 average minimum date of September 13.This year’s minimum was 760,000 square kilometers (293,000 square miles) below the previous record minimum extent in the satellite record, which occurred on September 18, 2007.
I think Walt meant to say “will” instead of “will not” here: In response to the setting sun and falling temperatures, ice extent will not climb through autumn and winter.
[update: he says its been fixed to read “will now”, I’ve corrected text here also. -A ]
At 3.41 million sq km, that means that in the ARCUS forecasting contest, everybody missed the forecast mark:
Download High Resolution Version of Figure 1.
Note that NSIDC’s Dr. Meier and WUWT had identical forecasts of 4.5 million sq km submitted to ARCUS, so we share the failure equally. That big storm in the Arctic really busted up the ice as well as the predictions.
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![AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent_L[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/amsre_sea_ice_extent_l1.png?resize=640%2C400&quality=75)
![N_20120916_stddev_timeseries2[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/n_20120916_stddev_timeseries21.png?w=300&resize=300%2C240)
It’s not CO2 which caused the lowest minimum of the Arctic ice pack this year but the warm AMO! Once the AMO turns negative, and it will, every thing will return to “normal.”
“In response to the setting sun and falling temperatures, ice extent will not climb through autumn and winter”
Shouldn’t that read “will not fall….”?
Reblogged this on Tigerland888 News Archive: Assembled Articles, Reports, Essays By Chase Kyla Hunter and commented:
Rapid melting of arctic sea ice presents a whole new plethora of problems no one had counted on needing to address, including a re-assessment of US national security issues related to the appearance [ quite suddenly ] of a new ocean to police to the farthest north of North America.
I don’t believe the open water will have aborbed much in the way of incoming energy due to the high effective albedo as a result of the angle of incidence. However, I think it will be a huge radiator because of the loss of insulating ice cover. Any back-of-the-envelope estimates on how much more heat will be lost in the Arctic before the ice cover is re-established as opposed to the 1979-2000 average? What effects might this have elsewhere on the planet?
Who ever summarizes the different measures of ice cover (or volume), please also include a mention of the smoothing method and timing (# of days and whether mid point timing or trailing average).
There seems to be a lot of ice in the Arctic that is not measured presumably it is not in sufficient percentage to do so, surely this will mean a rather rapid upturn when temperatures drop a little more. About the ice melt this season I concur with others who point to the sea temperatures being a major factor, It can’t be the air temperatures, as the Max. have not risen above normal. If Arctic temperatures are above normal it’s because it is -20c instead of -25c in the winter. Is this a reasonable assumption, I would like to here more from those who know better than me. I am here to learn. Oh. and thanks to Richard Courtney for his earlier response.
Best wishes
Keith Gordon
COntrast: Antarctic Ice Area Sets Another Record – NSIDC Is Silent
Posted on September 16, 2012
@ur momisugly D J Hawkins at 10:23 am
Exactly. Heat lost to space from open Arctic water is vastly under-rated by the Warmists.
Ice is primarily an insulator.
Anthony:
Walt Meier is one of the few on the ‘warmist’ side whose behaviour and demeanour I respect.
I think it would be good if you were to accept his offer of a Guest Article whether or not he agrees to your “trade”. I suspect a constructive dialogue would be possible with him and – if so – that could be a breakthrough from the attacks which have dominated the ‘climate news’ this week.
Richard
Looking at just the chart, it could be the minimum, but it looks to me to that it could also be just a wiggle. Do you have other information that leads you to make the call?
At 3.41 million sq km, that means that in the ARCUS forecasting contest, everybody missed the forecast mark
Yes, while some nonscientists have been predicting cycles and recovery, the experts have been predicting ice decline. But real ice has been going down much faster than even most of the experts (except Maslowski) thought it would. Not a good sign.
Area, extent, who cares? What I want to know is the volume. Now that might tell me something. Not that I care a twit about Artic ice.
What we are observing – warming of the Arctic while the Antarctic cools – is a cyclic phenomenon that is called the polar see-saw. Based on what has happened, the Arctic will now cool.
The following a link to a paper by Henrik Svensmark that uses borehole temperatures in the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Antarctic Ice sheet which supports the assertion that polar see-saw is occurring and that there is no lag in the phenomena.
The fact that there is no lag rules out ocean currents as a possible mechanism. Also recent deep ocean current measurements, using specialized buoys, have shown that there is no global thermalhaline converyor which completely invalidates the ocean current mechanism.
Svensmark`s explanation of the phenomena is decreased cloud cover in high latitude regions causes warming in Arctic as the albedo of low level clouds is higher than open ocean and cooling in the Antarctic as the albedo of the Antarctic ice sheet is higher than low level clouds. There is an interesting twist to the phenomena to explain the 10 to 12 year delay from the onset of major reduction in the solar magnetic cycle and a change in planetary clouds in the high latitude region.
http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/physics/pdf/0612/0612145v1.pdf
The Antarctic climate anomaly and galactic cosmic rays By, Henrik Svensmark
Contradictory trends in temperature in Antarctica and the rest of the world, which are evident on timescales from millennia to decades, provide a strong clue to what drives climate change. The southern continent is distinguished by its isolation and by its unusual response to changes in cloud cover. While the rest of the global surface is (on balance) cooled by clouds, they have a warming effect on high-albedo snowfields[5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10].
NASA’s Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) [11, 12] provided valuable data on the effects of clouds at different latitudes. They can be interpreted to show that, if changes in cloudiness drive climate change, the anomalous behavior of Antarctica is predictable.
Borehole temperatures in the ice sheets spanning the past 6000 years show Antarctica repeatedly warming when Greenland cooled, and vice versa (Fig. 1) [13, 14]. North-south oscillations of greater amplitude associated with Dansgaard-Oeschger events are evident in oxygenisotope data from the Wurm-Wisconsin glaciation[15]. The phenomenon has been called the polar see-saw[15, 16], but that implies a north-south symmetry that is absent. Greenland is better coupled to global temperatures than Antarctica is, and the fulcrum of the temperature swings is near the Antarctic Circle. A more apt term for the effect is the Antarctic climate anomaly.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090513130942.htm
Cold Water Ocean Circulation Doesn’t Work As Expected
The familiar model of Atlantic ocean currents that shows a discrete “conveyor belt” of deep, cold water flowing southward from the Labrador Sea is probably all wet.
A 50-year-old model of ocean currents had shown this southbound subsurface flow of cold water forming a continuous loop with the familiar northbound flow of warm water on the surface, called the Gulf Stream.
“Everybody always thought this deep flow operated like a conveyor belt, but what we are saying is that concept doesn’t hold anymore,” said Duke oceanographer Susan Lozier. “So it’s going to be more difficult to measure these climate change signals in the deep ocean.”
http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/id.999,y.0,no.,content.true,page.1,css.print/issue.aspx
According to the WUWT right sidebar:
Arctic Sea Ice Nearly Disappears in… 3 Days
Just a look at the temperature of the ice coming out of winter could be additional condition to see less ice (sealess ice) come today. ???
It is great too that the ice melt has exposed an Eskimo village that was snowed under 500 years ago. So this great Ice melt does two things. It gives the warmest reason to glee, but gives them a problem as to how to explain the village that existed before we added the carbon to the air. It seems to me that the evidence that this worm spell is a cycle and not man caused is very strong.
Roy
Chris4692 says:
September 19, 2012 at 10:55 am
Looking at just the chart, it could be the minimum, but it looks to me to that it could also be just a wiggle. Do you have other information that leads you to make the call?
Look at the DMI temperatures here http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php and in the sidebar sea ice page http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/
The temperatures appear to be dropping albeit a little later than normal. With temperatures below 270K and dropping and rapidly reducing insolation there should be no more melting. Although potentially another severe storm could force more ice out of the Arctic ocean area.
Looks like the Antarctic has set another record as well, on the upside…
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2012/09/19/antarctic-sea-ice-sets-another-record/
D. J. Hawkins says:
September 19, 2012 at 10:23 am
I said pretty much the same over at Climate etc on Judith’s ice thread.
According to the WUWT right sidebar:
Arctic Sea Ice Nearly Disappears in… 3 Days
Well, minimum sea area ice is down by more than half, and volume by more than three quarters over the satellite record. It looks enough like a death spiral to make that sidebar embarassing in an unintended way.
Forbes has an article about Antarctic sea ice setting a record: http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2012/09/19/antarctic-sea-ice-sets-another-record/
The comments are going crazy claiming this doesn’t mean anything. Funny that none are spouting the meme that it’s due to ozone depletion nor when they mention the record low Arctic ice noting the big storm in the Arctic.
Anthony,
Very much agree with Richard S Courtney’s view.
It is a huge step forward when a well regarded currently active scientist enters the WUWT dialog.
It cannot but help open the communication channels that you have worked so long to build.
Once there is a background of give and take, I think the reciprocal access will follow as a matter of course.
So please let us welcome Dr Meier to WUWT and hear what he wants to say, no strings attached.
Roy, can you find a link for that story? I’ve seen occasional similar reports from Greenland, but haven’t come across that one. TIA.
So please let us welcome Dr Meier to WUWT and hear what he wants to say, no strings attached.
Dr. Meier and his colleague Dr. Stroeve have been treated quite rudely here in the past, when people did not like what they heard.
“I’ll trade you a guest post on WUWT for making good on your promise of NSIDC “eventually” publishing your daily data like JAXA and other sea ice monitoring outlets do.”
Thanks, that was very funny. Looking forward to Dr. Meier’s guest post. It’s always nice to read someone who knows what he’s talking about on WUWT.