Isaac takes aim – look out New Orleans and Biloxi

The track models have all been pointing to the Gulf coast rather than central Florida, this plot of 10 meter wind velocity through August 31st is from WeatherBell’s newly setup HWRF model website by hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue:

The brown colors near the eye indicate sustained wind speeds of 100 to 130 knots (115 to 150 mph). That would make Isaac likely a category 4 hurricane when it makes landfall, with likely higher gusts. The track takes it across the Florida keys, near Ft. Meyers, FL, and onto the Gulf Coast. It is expected to intensify in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico once it clears the west coast of Florida. The turn towards the NNE isn’t forecast to happen until after landfall in the model.

UPDATE: The new forecast for today has lower wind speeds and the track has shifted west to the delta of the Mississippi river: 

Here’s a more detailed closeup 4 panel model view for the time Isaac is forecast to make landfall:

And here is the update for today:

Obviously a lot can change, but this bears watching and getting out of the way of. I’ll have updates to this page soon, and an Isaac reference page will be setup on WUWT for keeping track of it.

Rainfall from Isaac looks to be between 10 and 20 inches along its path:

here’s the update for Sunday, about the same, but in the worst place possible:

Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. has been looking at some damage model estimates earlier today and writes:

The median historical damage from this set of analogue storms is $1.6 billion, with an incredibly wide range. Currently the NHC projects Issac to make landfall along the Gulf coast as a category 2 storm. There are 5 historical analogues in the set above with normalized damage ranging $1 billion (Georges, 1998) to $4.4 billion (Gustav, 2008). Category 3 and 4 storms have resulted in much higher damage. I’ll update these numbers as Issac gets closer to the Gulf Coast.

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147 Responses to Isaac takes aim – look out New Orleans and Biloxi

  1. Dave says:

    Calm down Dears. It won’t be a big one.

  2. Pamela Gray says:

    Dang! Pack your belongings and pets and head North Dixie!

  3. Mario Lento says:

    Is this a bad omen for the RNC? I hope not.

  4. RACookPE1978 says:

    Relax.

    There’s a republican governor in charge of Louisiana this time.

  5. Ian W says:

    I am not so sure this won’t intensify. The new model tracks are a lot West of the old well away from the mid-Florida coast, giving a long sea track and with many now looking like a direct hit on Lake Pontchartrain which is the worst direction for New Orleans. (if you want to see all the various models you can go to http://spaghettimodels.com/ a kind of one-stop shop for meteorological models in the South East.)
    The Gulf of Mexico SSTs are in the mid 80s F which is around average for this time of year and if the wind shear stays favorable this could be a nasty storm.

  6. Dave says:

    This is clearly Barack Obama’s doing. He’s trying to get even for the hurricane he claimed George Bush caused. Need proof, look at the timing with the RNC events. Now that Obama is President and has all that power, he likes using it, too. ;-)

    Come to think of it, he’ll probably blame this on George Bush, too.

  7. SS says:

    The Euro model saw this solution four days ago. The GFS has done quite poorly with the evolution of this storm.

  8. Tom S says:

    I wouldn’t discount this so quick Dave. Shear is weak, track will allow for strengthening over open water…deep convection really winding up around the center right now.

  9. Nerd says:

    It doesn’t look as bad as Katrina. If it shifts to the west of NO then it’s bye-bye for NO. I’ve had great times on Bourbon St there years ago.

  10. OssQss says:

    Mario Lento says:
    August 25, 2012 at 6:02 pm

    No, it is good. I suspect this duress will promote teamwork and unity.

    What is the other choice again?

    Towards the post

    That is great technology if hindsight proves it right.

    Kinda scary seeing the future in that respect if so, but a good thing in the end.

  11. Ian W says:

    Nerd says:
    August 25, 2012 at 6:50 pm

    It doesn’t look as bad as Katrina. If it shifts to the west of NO then it’s bye-bye for NO. I’ve had great times on Bourbon St there years ago.

    The worst track is the one currently forecast with storm surge into Lake Pontchartrain that would really stress the New Orleans flood defenses as will the huge amount of rain – 10 – 20 inches. I think Le Quartier Français will survive as always as it was built by people who thought about flooding and storms. But much of the other more recent areas of New Orleans are below sea level including the newly rebuilt areas of the 9th Ward.

    [I had thought it would have been sensible to dig canals between all the flooded 9th Ward houses use the earth that was dug out to raise the houses and then you have water front property above sea level with roads in front and canals behind. The canals would slow and dissipate storm surges protecting the other parts of New Orleans. It would have led to a big jump in land and house values and have brought more builders in. ]

  12. Dr. John M. Ware says:

    In several places above, Isaac is misspelled Issac; please correct.
    I hope everyone will be safe; even if Isaac doesn’t hit 130 mph, it’s still a big potent storm.

    REPLY: I found one instance in my text, fixed, and the other two are in Dr. Roger Pielke’s text, which I can’t correct – Anthony

  13. wendellwx52 says:

    If you live anywhere along the Gulf Coast from near New Orleans, eastward to the Florida Panhandle, you need to really pay attention to Isaac, and where he is headed. His exact track and strength is not yet set in stone, and will likely change several more times over the next couple of days. But make no mistake folks, he has his sights set on the Gulf of Mexico, and he is coming your way if you live in the above mentioned areas.

    However, the various computer models (NHC Models), GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, CMC have all been tracking Isaac inland between these areas by next Tuesday or Wednesday. The latest model trends today have been shifting Isaac’s forecast track further west….possibly making landfall in the New Orleans, Biloxi, Mobile, Pascagoula areas on Tuesday. This may change.

    Isaac has the potential to become at least a Category 3 Hurricane, maybe even stronger, once he enters the central Gulf of Mexico south of the Florida Peninsula. The surface water temperatures over the central Gulf of Mexico are about as warm as they get….mid 80’s to near 90.

    Isaac is already a very large cyclone, and may get even bigger in size once he encounters these very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Model forecasts also indicate that the winds aloft will be very light, with little to no shear when Isaac enters this area. Environmental conditions will be nearly ideal for Isaac to potentially explode into a monster of a Hurricane.

    Isaac is no joke, and please do not wait until the last minute trying to decide if you are going to prepare for his landfall, if you live in the above mentioned areas.

  14. Lady in Red says:

    I hope, I hope, I hope…. Isaac gives the GOP some breathing room to re-think their American taliban Constituional Amendment forced birthing position and the extent they ain’t so far from Akin after all….

    …to watch the MoveOn and Obama ad about govt controlling a woman’s body, rights….

    …and re-group: win the election. Go Isaac! ….Lady in Red

  15. The forecasts above show the storm east of NO and Lake P. The storm surge is in the center and to the right of the storm because that’s where the onshore winds are.

  16. Tom in Florida says:

    SS says:
    August 25, 2012 at 6:33 pm
    “The Euro model saw this solution four days ago. The GFS has done quite poorly with the evolution of this storm.”

    Yes, GFS has not performed well for this storm, thankfully! The farther west it tracks the better for my area although as we remember with Charley in 2004, it ain’t over til the fat lady passes by. In addition, we have had lots of rain recently in this area up through Tampa so even just a few more inches all at once may create a huge problem.

  17. kim2ooo says:

    Reblogged this on Climate Ponderings and commented:
    BUT BUT I bought Carbon off-sets credits

  18. P. Solar says:

    Pielke Jr says: The median historical damage from this set of analogue storms is $1.6 billion …

    Just as well it’s not a digital storm then. ;)

    Maybe the good Dr meant analogous storms.

  19. TomT says:

    The brown shows a cat 4 when it makes landfall. As long as you don’t count Key West and the other Florida Keys as land.

  20. Bill Jamison says:

    The latest track from the NHC has Isaac hitting closer to Pensacola but either way it could be bad, very bad. The trajectory in these models brings the storm surge directly in towards New Orleans and if it’s a Cat 4 storm the chance of a repeat of Katrina will be VERY high. Definitely a serious situation.

  21. jorgekafkazar says:

    “I had thought it would have been sensible to dig canals between all the flooded 9th Ward houses use the earth that was dug out to raise the houses and then you have water front property above sea level with roads in front and canals behind.”

    And those canals would drain to … where?

  22. Goode 'nuff says:

    Don’t worry about those Republicans. Earlier this week I delivered a load of 200 mile per hour duct tape to Tampa. So their Whigs won’t get blowed away.
    3M Racing Products
    http://solutions.3m.com/wps/portal/3M/en_US/NASCAR/racing/3MNASCAR/main/racingproducts/

  23. Grey Lensman says:

    Jorge said

    Quote

    And those canals would drain to … where?

    Unquote

    Ask the dutch!

    It would also help to mass replant the mangroves and reduce the number of shipping channels but increase the quality of those remaining

  24. TomB says:

    Lady in Red says:
    August 25, 2012 at 7:35 pm

    WTF? You really think conservatives want people to die? So wrong I can’t even wring my head.

  25. Al Gore says:

    They come wet and wild and when they leave they take with them both the car and the house.

  26. cdquarles says:

    I’d keep my eyes on that mid-latitude storm that exited Colorado recently. The strength and path of it will affect the tropical system as it approaches the Gulf.

  27. kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:

    Wouldn’t this be a good time for a geo-engineering experiment? There was a lot of talk at the time of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon leak about the effects of hurricane winds on the spilled oil.

    Sadly and despite popular expectations, Nature itself took care of that oil relatively quickly. But knowing that it can, is there time to arrange a small spill to test those earlier predictions? After all, there have been serious proposals for spraying different substances to somehow sap these storms of energy. Since crude oil naturally seeps into the Gulf continuously, why not test and find out what really happens with oil?

  28. Blade says:

    Lady in Red [August 25, 2012 at 7:35 pm]

    Red Lady, what’s that you say, something about MoveOn and Obama controlling a woman’s body.

    Why not, they seem successful at controlling a woman’s mind. Your mind. What’s left of it anyway.

    “win the election. Go Isaac!”

    I told you our Democratic-Socialists would be going down this path. It’s in their genes. It is not a great leap from here to where all the other reds and socialists always wind up.

    They root for massive death and destruction because they think they can spin it to their favor. Vote these vermin out. There is no reason to elect a Red or a Socialist for any reason. The Red Lady has made it nice and clear.

  29. Let’s hope that the US Army Corps of Engineers have done their job this time.

  30. DirkH says:

    Mario Lento says:
    August 25, 2012 at 6:02 pm
    “Is this a bad omen for the RNC? I hope not.”

    Yes. Calmer weather will allow the anarchists to do what they prepared to do.
    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/08/24/Brandon-Darby-on-Anarchist-Plans-for-the-RNC-Including-Taking-Down-the-City-s-EMS-System

  31. Ian W says:

    jorgekafkazar says:
    August 25, 2012 at 9:21 pm

    “I had thought it would have been sensible to dig canals between all the flooded 9th Ward houses use the earth that was dug out to raise the houses and then you have water front property above sea level with roads in front and canals behind.”

    And those canals would drain to … where?

    They would be just like the other canals in New Orleans sea level canals between Mississippi and Main Outal Canal perhaps. Once houses are above the water level these canals can fill and empty naturally. Perhaps by letting Mississippi outflow into them it would slow the river flow which is currently so fast that the barrier islands have been eroded away as silt that keeps them has been carried directly out into the Gulf.

  32. mike about town says:

    PSolar, actually, “analogue” has a first definition that is exactly how Pielke meant it. It is “something that is an analogy to something else.” But I realize it must look funny if you didn’t know that word!

  33. cedarhill says:

    Well, one supposes we’ll see if Obama can really stop the rise of the oceans and stop those terrible storms devastating the land. But it’s only been four years and a month since Berlin. I guess he’ll go to TPC of Louisianna to survey the damage and maybe get a round or two in before the crowds return.

    For sure, all the pols will be presssing that big red button this week. “Greyhound bus” Nagel was replaced by one of Mary Landrieu’s clan, Mitch Landrieau. Obama, Jindal and Landrieau along tihe the Czars of DC accompanied by the “Better than Bush” orchastra it will be quite a spectacle. Given the low bar of this years campaign, expect a theme to be played called “we were right to close the Gulf to oil until we get that CO2 under control. Darn W anyway.”

    One hopes that folks in LA don’t have short memories. You can rebuild houses under sea level – if you’re alive afterwards.

  34. Otter says:

    First (?) serious trike in seven years, and it (more or less) takes aim on the same city?
    Will they blame oh!bummer! for not making a bigger effort to control the natural climate, or is it still Bush`s fault?

  35. starzmom says:

    Can the powers that be please send Isaac north west into the Central Plains? We need the rain.

  36. What’s the state of the NO levees now? Are they fully refurbished and are they stronger/higher than before?

  37. aharris says:

    This is troubling. We have a friend who moved back to NOLA not long after Katrina. I know he has the sense to get out, but I still worry.

    I was intitially a bit skeptical when I saw this track because all of the official tracks I could find still had Isaac tracking up the Florida coast into the panhandle, but last night at 11, they had him starting to veer further West. I haven’t checked in yet this morning to see if their official forecasts still have him turning more westerly as this track projects. At least Louisiana has officials at the state level who will get things moving this time around.

    We better all be prepared to take some more pain at the gas pumps, too, at this rate. Isaac is going to hit some platforms and some refineries I’m guessing.

    As to the Lady in Red, why do her kind only believe in acts of God when they think they can score political points off them?

  38. Danj says:

    The levees have been strengthened to some degree. As a Louisiana resident, I hope we don’t have to find out if the work was sufficient. I don’t know if New Orleans and the surrounding coastal area can really be protected from a true Cat 3. The closing of the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet (MRGO) should help some, but there are simply too many weak points to protect from a strong storm surge.

  39. Bill says:

    Anthony,

    Can you put this as a permanent story at the top of the page and update as possible?
    I live in N.O.

    Thanks.

  40. Twiggy says:

    On Geo Sat it looks like it doesn’t have a chance to regain much energy, a lot like Irene last fall.

  41. Lady in Red says:

    Probably, Anthony’s site should not be a political venue. However, I have been misunderstood.
    I am a conservative, even more a libertarian.

    At the same time I am concerned about the (unchanged) GOP platform to preserve fetal life, over the wishes of the woman (oven). Wickedly, I call it the American taliban, forced birthing movement. The GOP has always had the platform, but, now, clawing back state by state (forced ultrasounds, forced structural changes to clinics, etc.), they are getting closer to:

    forcing all women to birth. Fetuses gain rights; women lose ‘em.

    I hope that Isaac gives the GOP time to rethink this position because, all of the big issues we should be focusing upon, this issue terrifies undecided/independent women voters:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIu6igTBDnc&feature=player_embedded

    These are not Dem slime ads. Sadly, as crude as Akin has seemed, he *is* the future of the GOP vis a vis women’s rights.

    I just hope there is some serious hustling within the GOP. Rare — but legal — would be fine. But sending women back to the 1950’s, to back alleys, is not going to win them an election.

    I hope the GOP uses this day to figure out its position on back alley abortions, its position as a stand-in for the taliban in America, forcing all women, all the time, to comply with their view of morality.

    Is this clear. Go Isaac! Give ‘em time. I hope the ole boys think! ….Lady in Red

  42. eric1skeptic says:

    “I am a conservative, even more a libertarian.”

    So what is your view on energy policy? Do you think the Federal government should be spending tax money on green ventures and forcing coal plants to shut down?

  43. RACookPE1978 says:

    I will remind “Lady in Red” that several of the supposed “Republican” women in that commercial are long-time voting and registered democrats. At least one, and maybe others, is deeply involved in democrat and socially extremely liberal issues and causes.

    “Republican” women? Seems not.

    It is like the democrat activist who deliberately registered at a Catholic College in Washington DC at a rate of over 20,000.00 dollars tuition per year for her law degree, while living downtown in the most expensive city in the country, so she could protest that Catholic University’s religious doctrine of not providing free abortions to their students. As 48 million potential taxpayers could have told you, a greater death toll in history than anyone but Stalin and Mao, the costs of your obsession and lies about abortion is immense.

    And, like the 7 million false Obama Facebook “likes”, their false CAGW doctrines, their false economic doctrines, the biased and bigoted racial doctrines of the left, these lies by the democrat party continue as they intrude into religion and religious issues.

  44. Nylo says:

    Al Gore says:
    August 25, 2012 at 10:44 pm

    They come wet and wild and when they leave they take with them both the car and the house.

    Wait, I have it, I have it… Wives!

  45. Jeff says:

    [The track takes it across the Florida keys, near Ft. Meyers, FL, and onto the Gulf Coast]

    Umm, Ft. Meyers is, I believe, somewhere in Israel. The one here in FL is spelt Myers. :)

  46. Tom in (we dodged the bullet this time) Florida says:

    cedarhill says:
    August 26, 2012 at 3:42 am
    “One hopes that folks in LA don’t have short memories. You can rebuild houses under sea level – if you’re alive afterwards.”

    But that is the folly, continually REBUILDING houses under sea level. Fool me once ………

  47. Lady in Red says:

    I believe in science, facts, repeatable experiments. I believe in truth. I believe in limited govt. I believe in conservation and respect for the environment, picking up beer cans and “taking out what you brought in.”

    I believe in babies and dogs and cats. I believe that calves and baby lambs and goats and pigs should be treated with love and respect.

    I do not believe that American women should be turned into birthing ovens, without rights. Abortion is a tough decision, but it’s a decision between a woman and her doctor, just like many other medical decisions. That is all.

    (Hell, I ponder the sadness of the SPCA murder of all the love and life-filled cats and puppies — who don’t want to die.)

    If turning the clock back to the 1950’s is really what the GOP wants, sobeit. If Isaac is not about a God-sent respite to rethink, ok. ….Lady in Red

  48. Paul Coppin says:

    This isn’t the thread for any of the above. There are plenty of political blogs out there, including one of mine, to beat your collective chests on about what colour your political stripe is. For the RNC and Tampa, ISAAC may turn out to be a blessing. The web is full of chatter right now about a violent “occupy” for Tampa and the convention, that if happens as is being called for, will make the US politcal system moot. ISAAC might just help prevent a much worse storm.

    Back to ISAAC and the NHC… I wonder if there is a renewed emphasis for NOAA to make their predictions on increased numbers of named storms come true. As we noticed last year, their seems to be an interest in pouncing on depressions and giving them names as soon as possible – Joyce being the latest example of a minor dust-up that dissipated almost as fast as NOAA posted a name for it.
    There also seems to be an urgency in ISAAC NHC discussions to want to call it a hurricane as soon as possible. Maybe this is instrumental in US emergency management strategies, don’t know, but they seem intent on finding any evidence of a 65knot wind in order to declare it, however fleeting.

  49. Lady in Red says:

    I forgot to write:

    I believe in Anthony Watts and Judith Curry and, oh so much, I believe in the simple sincere, but dogged pitbull — for over a decade — Steve McIntyre.

    If it were not for McIntyre’s patient, steady persistence, The Team and all its minions would never have been netted. Oh, and McKitrick’s preeetty cool, too.

    And a toast to Mark Steyn! Who else would have thought of calling ole Dr. Mann, “ringmaster of a tree-ring circus?”

    I just hope that The White Hats don’t lose it, now, imposing govt morality on women’s medical decisions. Your “beliefs” should be private, between you and *your* God. This isn’t science.
    …Lady in Red

  50. John F. Hultquist says:

    Are there not other blogs where Isaac is not discussed in favor of topics more controversial? Or perhaps use the telephone or meet at a bar and rant at one another. Thanks.

  51. psi says:

    Katrina anyone, I live in Gulfport, did back then, really hoping this takes the eastern most track

  52. pochas says:

    We have a right to food, a roof over our head, transportation, medical care and 40 inch TV’s, regardless, prepaid. You other guys get with the program!

  53. JR says:

    I’ve lived on the Gulf Coast for over 50 years, and hunkered down through any number of hurricanes. The hysteria that precedes them, as a general rule, far outweighs the actual damage.

    Katrina was a devastating storm, crushing Mississippi and Louisiana, just like Camille 35 years before. There is no indication yet that Isaac will acquire the type of energy of a small powerful wind storm like Camille, or a large powerful water storm like Katrina.

    Frequently more people die in the evacuation or the aftermath than in the storm. Remember, the levies broke in New Orleans AFTER Katrina passed. People should follow the official posture which is run from water, and shelter from wind. The storm surge of a typical category 1 or 2 hurricane is 5 to 8 feet or so and in a very small localized area, especially when compared to the large size of the storm viewed from space. The lack of power and the disruption from moving everything inside for protection, picking up limbs, cutting and removing trees, and taking everything back outside, lasts for a day to a week again over a relatively small area. Inland tornadoes, generally small (albeit devastating) and local flooding from rain are an issue.

    There is no reason to panic or over-analyze this storm. Watch it, prepare for it, and be ready to pitch in for the cleanup.

  54. Bill says:

    If you go to Weather Underground, they use 6 models and show the average position/track from the six. But if you click on the map with the individual models you see that four of them track much closer to New Orleans and the other two are outliers. As I recall, the UKMET is not a very good model anyway. So several of the best models track it further west as does a good european model that does not want its forecasts used or linked to other webpages but will give it on their own website and release the occasional track to the Weather channel.

    So it looks like it will go further west. Hopefully if it stays moving fast it can’t intensify much.

    We’ll know much better this afternoon I think (Sun. aft.)

  55. eric1skeptic says:

    Paul Coppin made a good point. There is no way that Helene and Joyce should have been named storms for at most 6 hours before they fell below criteria.

    Lady in Red, your last post is good except for your last paragraph. This isn’t the place to troll about your personal philosophies that have nothing to do with climate or climate policy.

  56. Pamela Gray says:

    I will plug my nose as I vote the Republican ticket (Obama made me change from a life-long dem to a registered independent). And then I will fight tooth and toenail to keep nosy guvmnt carpet baggers out of my bedroom, womb, and pew, and any other private medical, spiritual belief, or coupling decision I make, whether others think those decisions are my right or not to make. It especially rankles me when a man, not of my immediate family, tries to tell me what to do regarding those private decisions. If elected, and Mitt and Paul try to do that, I will be as disappointed in them as I am in Obama. And I am DEEPLY disappointed in Obama.

    Do we need to force both parties to rid themselves of private decision planks, from light bulbs to sexual positions? We may have to so they will focus on the economy and putting the federal government back to what it was originally designed to do. It certainly did not come into my great-great grandmother’s bedroom, pew, or sick room to tell her what to do. Hell, not too long ago we pledged allegiance to the flag and just the flag, not someone’s concept of being “under God” like we now do.

    If I have to, I will throw some tea into the Boston harbor in the middle of that hurricane!!!!!

  57. Ian W says:

    Twiggy says:
    August 26, 2012 at 6:08 am

    On Geo Sat it looks like it doesn’t have a chance to regain much energy, a lot like Irene last fall.

    Irene was a coast crawling rain maker (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092011_Irene.pdf ) Isaac once it clears Cuba has a long track over warm water with upper level winds that will allow development. If you look instead at GOES East Infrared imagery http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-rb.html – you will see the sudden upsurge in infrared as the convection is starting to increase in the Florida Straits (all that latent heat being released). It is better to prepare for a Cat 5 and get a Cat 1, than have a hurricane party and have to fight for survival. Anyone from Tallahassee to Lafayette needs to watch this storm carefully. It is not small – the center of circulation is currently just North of Cuba but the leading edge squall lines are already up to Orlando and the central Florida East coast.

    For those interested the actual energy removed from the ocean and released as latent heat by cloud rain formation by one hurricane in one day is “equivalent to 200 times the world-wide electrical generating capacity”. This is by far the engine and main energy of a hurricane. But there is also the kinetic energy generated per day again taken from the ocean heat – “This is equivalent to about half the world-wide electrical generating capacity”
    From NOAA FAQ at: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D7.html

  58. I’ve been watching these storms since the early 50s. My prediction is the eye of the storm (or center, if there is no eye) will come ashore just east of Mobile Bay. BUT, the tracking has been moving steadily west over the last few days. If this continues happening it’s bad news for New Orleans. Any other predictions as to where the eye of the storm will cross from you experts?

  59. Jeff D says:

    I am still clueless and confused as to why we as an ” Intelligent ” species refuses to learn from past disasters and without fail will rebuild in the very same place natural disasters tend to strike. I like to think that I have a level of compassion that is comparable or higher then most but in these cases I am really starting to believe that a Darwin approach should prevail or at the very least if you choose to be stupid please don’t make me financially responsible for your poor choices.

  60. davidmhoffer says:

    To: GOP
    Re: Lady in Red

    With friends like these, who needs enemies?

  61. Ian W says:

    J. Philip Peterson says:
    August 26, 2012 at 8:30 am

    I’ve been watching these storms since the early 50s. My prediction is the eye of the storm (or center, if there is no eye) will come ashore just east of Mobile Bay. BUT, the tracking has been moving steadily west over the last few days. If this continues happening it’s bad news for New Orleans. Any other predictions as to where the eye of the storm will cross from you experts?

    I am not an expert – just someone who is living in the line of fire ;-) so I tend to watch carefully. But if you look at these web pages:

    http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201209_model.gif
    http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09
    http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201209_ensmodel.gif

    Unless something changes New Orleans to Biloxi look like they may get a Katrina encore but from a worse direction.

  62. _Jim says:

    This is a hurricane? I had to double check the ‘track’ against satellite imagery as it is not all that evident on the WV or IR satellite loops this morning (Sunday 11:51 EDT) …

    WV loop –

    http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20120826&endTime=-1&duration=8

  63. Annie says:

    Lady in Red @ 7:35 pm on August the 25th:

    Whatever are you talking about?

  64. Be Cause says:

    seven years ago the 1st storm I followed became Katrina on my then new snail-pace dial up net……
    after 3 net=free years I sign up for mobile tortoise broadband and started by following a storm that had not yet become 9 and is now Isaac.!!!!! deja voodoo as they might say ..
    glad I live in N. Ireland…on a drumlin… waiting for the next ice-age.!!!!

  65. Ian... says:

    @Lady in Red.

    Just FYI, don’t believe everything you see/read.

    REPUBLICAN WOMEN FOR OBAMA? [UPDATED: ANOTHER FAKE "REPUBLICAN" EXPOSED]
    http://WWW.POWERLINEBLOG.COM/ARCHIVES/2012/08/REPUBLICAN-WOMEN-FOR-OBAMA.PHP

  66. exNOAAman says:

    “I had thought it would have been sensible to dig canals between all the flooded 9th Ward houses use the earth that was dug out to raise the houses and then you have water front property above sea level with roads in front and canals behind. The canals would slow and dissipate storm surges protecting the other parts of New Orleans. It would have led to a big jump in land and house values and have brought more builders in. ”

    -You just made a good description of how it is done in Florida.
    And to your credit…is Fla real estate successful? Oh yeah.

  67. Ray Nagin wants to evacuate New Orleans. Evacuate himself. (sarcasm)

  68. gringojay says:

    My farm is in a geographical niche never hit by a hurricane according to local lore, but over the mountains they have struck. Devastation is hard to categorize since hits occurred miles apart by distinct hurricanes years apart.
    Best of luck to all at landfall from wind & with the ensuing rain. Issac in the Bible came to his aged parents & means “he laughs” – hope it’s lighthearted this time.

  69. Steve says:

    Jeff D @ 8:40am — They keep rebuilding there because the entire US economy relies on there being a port city at the end of the river, and the spot where NOLA sits is the best place to put one.

  70. Mac the Knife says:

    Lady in Red says:
    August 25, 2012 at 7:35 pm

    Lady,
    Have a cup of coffee… and rethink your screed.
    This is an inappropriate venue for abortion discussions other than to acknowledge that, regardless of how a child was/is conceived, the child is the blameless innocent.
    MtK

  71. Lady in Red says:

    You guys are pissin’ me off.

    I don’t *care* if the Repubs lose the election. Hell, I don’t care if they all die in Tampa, in Isaac.

    They may do what they wish.

    My (silent) prayer was merely that the damn ole men (and women?) re-thunk the GOP position about forcing women to birth, about a damn Const. Amendment (or clawing back women’s rights, state by state).

    *I* just re-thunk. I *do* care if Republicans, libertarians to come, lose. I fear it is likely to happen. The issue won’t be CAGW, or the economy, or the debt. It will be the fear by independents of the GOP need to control women’s bodies….. that small govt, real science, is only important when it is the other guy’s (gun control NOT abortion) agenda.

    The important thing, friends: science, science, science. THAT is why you are here. *Science* is important and, if it becomes important for women to become mere ovens, it is *also* important to stop the killing at the SPCA. Kill to eat. No more. ….Lady in Red

  72. Mac the Knife says:

    Lady,

    As I stated above “This is an inappropriate venue for abortion discussions other than to acknowledge that, regardless of how a child was/is conceived, the child is the blameless innocent.”

    Loss of bladder function, hyperbole, and vitriol have no impact on that simple fact. Let’s agree to disagree and turn this discussion back to the science of hurricane forecasting, shall we?

    We now return this thread to it’s regularly schedule analysis of hurricane Isaac tracking…
    MtK

  73. Entropic man says:

    It’s track is moving away from Tampa. God loves the GOP

  74. Ian W says:

    Entropic man says:
    August 26, 2012 at 10:25 am

    It’s track is moving away from Tampa. God loves the GOP

    It does appear to be drawing a bead on the New Orleans area which has suffered enough recently. And as you raise the GOP convention at Tampa; I wonder how much time a sitting president should spend personally dealing with the aftermath of a national disaster? a week or so?

  75. Cal Smith says:

    Joe Bastardi has been predicting this storm development for over a month, My partial solution to government spending is to disband the National Weather Service and give their job to Joe.

  76. eric1skeptic says:

    LiR says “You guys are pissin’ me off.”

    Simple answer: stop trolling. Everyone else: don’t feed the troll.

  77. Entropic man says:

    Ian W says:
    August 26, 2012 at 10:37 am
    Entropic man says:
    August 26, 2012 at 10:25 am

    It’s track is moving away from Tampa. God loves the GOP

    It does appear to be drawing a bead on the New Orleans area which has suffered enough recently. And as you raise the GOP convention at Tampa; I wonder how much time a sitting president should spend personally dealing with the aftermath of a national disaster? a week or so?
    ————————
    I’m an Englishman. I leave such questions to Americans.

  78. Grey Lensman says:

    Really scratching head. Is this Post Normal Meteorology?

    NHC Bulletin 22, has Tropical Storm Isaac with wind speed of 65 mph

    Hover NHC bulletin 22a has the following

    Isaac has not increased in strength, followed by wind speed 60 mph.

    So now the post 1984 decrease is replaced by not increased.

  79. Jeff D says:

    Soon as the center cleared Cuba it really started looking like its gonna get ugly. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfvs.html

  80. Bloke down the pub says:

    Is Isaacs surname Hunt?

  81. Mac the Knife says:

    The fresh water reservoirs and aquifers of central and southern Florida are largely dependent on replenishment from hurricanes and the torrential rains they bring. While hurricanes are ‘bad’ for the people that live in their paths, the 12 inches to 24 inches of rain they can bring are ‘good’ for Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades and all of ther denizens. These fresh water reservoirs are heavily drawn on for the southern Florida cities potable water supplies as well. A 12″ – 24″ deluge is needed…..

  82. Mac the Knife says:

    Jeff D says:
    August 26, 2012 at 10:55 am
    Soon as the center cleared Cuba it really started looking like its gonna get ugly. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfvs.html

    JD,
    Thanks for the link! It looks like it is brewing up a ‘yin-yang’ double center!
    MtK

  83. rogerknights says:

    Steve says:
    August 26, 2012 at 9:33 am
    Jeff D @ 8:40am — They keep rebuilding there because the entire US economy relies on there being a port city at the end of the river, and the spot where NOLA sits is the best place to put one.

    I read that when a bridge across the river was built at New Orleans, the city deliberately made it with a low clearance so ocean-going ships couldn’t bypass it and offload upstream. Maybe, if the storm knocks down the bridge, it should be rebuilt higher. Maybe it should be rebuild higher anyway.

  84. rogerknights says:

    PS: “bypass it” = bypass New Orleans.
    ================

    eric1skeptic says:
    August 26, 2012 at 10:41 am
    LiR says “You guys are pissin’ me off.”

    Simple answer: stop trolling. Everyone else: don’t feed the troll.

    She’s been a regular poster here for at least a year, unlike some of her critics.
    Initially, she only made a one-sentence comment, in the context of a comment of others about the effect of the storm on the convention.

  85. Frederick Michael says:

    Lady in Red says:
    August 26, 2012 at 10:02 am

    You guys are pissin’ me off.

    All we want to do is get back to the topic of this thread and you act like we’re interested in your body. That’s exactly what we’re NOT interested in. The issue here is climate.

    There are lots of issues not discussed here. You should be OK with that.

  86. Jim Clarke says:

    Isaac has been fighting dry air, wind shear and land interaction for the past week. Still, it is a very large circulation and has a lot of potential. Conditions will likely be quite good for strengthening in the Gulf and it will have about 65 hours to do so, which is plenty of time. I expect that Isaac will make landfall as a category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. This will put an end to the long and unusual drought of major hurricanes crossing the US coast.

    Despite this record setting major hurricane drought, the usual voices will proclaim Isaac an example of climate change and how things are getting worse. The reality is that hurricanes like this have always happened and always will, but usually a lot more often than they have lately.

    No matter where it hits, it will be a disaster. The people impacted and the people responding will need our prayers and support.

    (Lady in Red…What rights do women lose when they are pregnant? When my wife was pregnant…she seemed to gain a lot more rights!)

  87. Paul Coppin says:

    ” I expect that Isaac will make landfall as a category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. This will put an end to the long and unusual drought of major hurricanes crossing the US coast. ”

    Well, we could get a pool going. Presently its having all kinds of trouble becoming even a cat 1. Winds speeds appear to have dropped some and its a ways off from being a cat 1 yet. NHC keeps trying to call the leading edge a protypical eyewall, but at the moment this is still just one big sloppy cyclone.. Cenrre of the low is just sw of Key West. Pretty slow moving at the moment. Put me down for a flimsy Cat 1 by the time it reaches the gulf coast. :)

  88. AndyL says:

    Request: Please put dates and times against any further updates to the main post so we can see how current they are

  89. Caleb says:

    I don’t like the latest computer prediction at all. That would push the surge westward along the coast, gathering strength until it piled up on the delta. We are talking a twenty foot surge. It’s a worst case scenario.

    I hope everyone’s prayers keep that storm weak.

  90. I was on holiday in New England when Katrina came in. I remember watching Weather Channel each night (I am from the UK!), and for most of the week beforehand, it was forecast to come ashore north of Miami as a run of the mill Category 2 or 3 storm.

    At the last moment it veered south and just skirted over the Keys. It was only then that New Orleans was threatened,as it would otherwise have blown itself out over land, and, from memory, they only had a couple of days warning by then.

    I guess it shows you can’t take anything for granted.

  91. Chris B says:

    Lady in Red says:
    August 26, 2012 at 6:58 am
    I believe in science, facts, repeatable experiments. I believe in truth. I believe in limited govt. I believe in conservation and respect for the environment, picking up beer cans and “taking out what you brought in.”

    I believe in babies and dogs and cats. I believe that calves and baby lambs and goats and pigs should be treated with love and respect…….

    __________________________-

    But, do you believe that all human beings have a right to live, even if a doctor and a child’s parent wants to kill a pre-born human being?

    Framing the argument is a misused skill used by more than just the radical left wing environmentalists behind CAGW.

    The right to kill other human beings is not an easy prerogative to give up, but changing what is the truth is not such an option.

  92. kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:

    @ Lady in Red:

    Then respect the science. If it has achieved the stage of development where outside of a female’s body it is a living viable child with the rights afforded such, then this should be recognized. The difference between dough and a loaf of bread is not whether it has been removed from the oven. “Inside or outside” should not be the sole quantifier as to whether something is a child, at that stage “disposal” should be limited to birthing (induced labor and/or c-section at mother’s request allowable) with the mother signing away parental rights and freed of parental responsibilities. Also, as medicine’s ability to successfully nurture “preemies” has increased, the “age of recognition” can be adjusted younger to reflect this.

    If the argument comes from a libertarian and/or equality standpoint, then acknowledge the currently-unalterable biology that makes females the carrier of offspring and also that both a male and a female are involved. For what starts as an act of mutual consent, the male should also have rights. If he does not desire offspring then he should be able to demand termination. If the female wishes to continue then he shall have neither parental rights nor responsibilities, as he has already decided he will not be a parent to the resulting child. Likewise he may decide a pregnancy will continue, at least unto the “age of recognition” stage mentioned above, provided he will assume all parental rights and responsibilities. He would of course assume all further related costs.

    Until technology advances to where artificial and/or non-human wombs are usable equivalent alternatives, policy should recognize human females as the only carrier of human offspring and the practical consequences thereof, for both males and females.

  93. Jeff D says:

    I’ve been watching the satellite loops. Its a strange storm. You think you can see the center of the rotation and then a few frames later the center seems to have jumped a fair distance to the W NW. Almost like a tornado cycling and back building but this one rebuilds to the leading edge.

  94. geran says:

    Hurricane or abortion issue?
    What is the topic here?
    Mods?

    (Hint: This is the blogosphere–The “lady in red” may be a fat guy in his pajamas.)

  95. clipe says:

    I’ve only ever been on the east coast of Florida (PBI FLL MIA) but the “far left” coast is looking a bit choppy.

    http://www.microseven.com/tv/livevideo-241.html

  96. Mac the Knife says:

    Caleb says:
    August 26, 2012 at 12:51 pm
    I don’t like the latest computer prediction at all. That would push the surge westward along the coast, gathering strength until it piled up on the delta. We are talking a twenty foot surge. It’s a worst case scenario. I hope everyone’s prayers keep that storm weak.

    Caleb,
    I agree. If Isaac gets organized and forms an ‘eye’ in the next 24 hours, it will have several days to strengthen further before any land fall.

    Jeff D provided this link http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfvs.html
    It looks like Isaac is getting his act together now! Pray, Indeed!!
    MtK

  97. kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:

    From geran on August 26, 2012 at 3:06 pm:

    Hurricane or abortion issue?
    What is the topic here?

    After devastation, during extended periods without electricity or heating when people huddle together such as post-hurricane, there are notable spikes in pregnancies, mainly “unintended”. During long rebuilding periods after natural disasters, many decide “it’s not the right time”. So they are not entirely unrelated.

  98. Be Cause says:

    has anyone noticed isaac is crossing katrina’s path on the anniversary of her being in the same spot 7 years almost to the exact hour,,,,, and red is my colour(original spelling).

  99. _Jim says:

    When was it downgraded? (Latest) Brief synopsis follows …

    – – – – – – – – – – – –

    Tropical Storm ISAAC Public Advisory

    BULLETIN
    TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 23 .CORRECTED
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
    500 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

    CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA FOR FLORIDA PANHANDLE

    ..CENTER OF ISAAC PASSING JUST SOUTH OF KEY WEST…

    SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
    ———————————————-
    LOCATION…24.2N 82.3W
    ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB…29.29 INCHES

    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ——————————
    AT 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/H…AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT… MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY…AND APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES…335 KM FROM THE CENTER. SMITH SHOAL LIGHT…NEAR KEY WEST…REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 70 MPH…113 KM/H…AND VIRGINIA KEY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 66 MPH…106 KM/H.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB…29.29 INCHES.
    – – – – – – –

    [Jim_ : Please confirm this is the text you want preserved. Robt]

  100. Lady in Red says:

    I am hardly a fat guy in pajamas….

    I am tired, however, about wanting to sacrifice women to a fetus. Yep. Science says it can be viable, earlier and earlier. Do I care? Nope? Minimize pain and suffering. Just like killing calves, for veal.

    The pups and kitties we gas at the SPCA are “beyond viable,” living breathing things.

    We are part of nature — just like Isaac. We need to stand in awe of that.

    But we don’t need a “belief” about a “sout” unshared by the animals we gas and butcher, which is, apparently, ok’ed by God, to turn women into ovens, according to the GOP American taliban.

    Some folk “believe” stoning women to death in the public square shouting Allah Akbar is fine.

    Some believe women should be ovens to their fetuses. It’s ok.

    I do not want my, country, The United States of America, turned into an anti-woman taliban.
    If the GOP wants to go there it *is* ok. Today, however, I still have the right to walk. So do millions of other voters — who should, I think, be voting GOP, except for this issue.

    And, this “silly” issue, long a part of the GOP platform, just bubbling to the surface now, will cost Romney the election. Yep. The GOP has some time to rethink the platform — rare, but ALWAYS legal — or lose. ….Lady in Red

  101. thelastdemocrat says:

    LIR sez: “I believe in science, facts, repeatable experiments. I believe in truth. I believe in limited govt.
    I do not believe that American women should be turned into birthing ovens, without rights.
    imposing govt morality on women’s medical decisions. Your “beliefs” should be private, between you and *your* God. This isn’t science.
    The important thing, friends: science, science, science. THAT is why you are here. *Science* is important.”

    The scientific answer is that life begins at conception.
    This is what we learned in middle school. Like begets like. We also learned the principles of living things versus non-living things.

    Some have obfuscated this fact of science for their political motives, such as fighting against conservatives by portraying them as uneducated cavemen barbarians, and accusing conservatives of wanting to take all women and turn them into breeding machines. Or, alternately, wanting to instill a “theocracy” in the U.S.

    If life does not begin at conception, then the burden for updating and revising the scientific view is upon The Lady in Red, with a revolutionary idea equivalent to Galileo declaring the earth revolves around the sun, and not vice versa:

    Two questions follow that:
    At what point in development does human life begin, if not at conception?

    What is the thing until it is human? It is growing, has its own DNA, and so on. What is the name for this new phenomenon when it is in between conception and the point where this distinctly DNA-guided growing thing becomes homo sapiens?

    [And now, either hilarity ensues, or vitriol and name-calling ensues - like discussing the lack of man-made global warming with some Al Gore-instructed college kid .]

    And, Lady in Red, are we about to get a rant about “overpopulation” next, and how we educated westerners need to go to the dark corners of the world and promote birth control, lest “they” crowd our planet and ruin the good thing we have going on?

    [Let'd keep to the topic, please. No more abortion discussion. ~dbs, mod.]

  102. clipe says:

    clipe says:
    August 26, 2012 at 3:24 pm

    I’ve only ever been on the east coast of Florida

    That’s not true, I’ve been other places.

  103. geran says:

    …meanwhile, back to the hurricane…

    Last info I have found (about an hour ago) Isaac is not even an official hurricane–only wind speeds of 60 kph. The predictions are that it will intensify, but it will need a lot more “global warming”.

  104. Theo Goodwin says:

    I guess that without the incredible power of global warming Isaac would have been a light rain storm. Key West was hit a little. They had some gusts to 70 mph, maybe. The mainland received light rain.

  105. Lady in Red says:

    [Snip. Please stick to the topic. ~dbs, mod.]

  106. aharris says:

    @geran, I assume that what strength Isaac will have probably depends on how slowly he goes over the open Gulf. The water out there is supposed to be very warm and he could pick up a lot of strength from that if he spends enough time over it.

    Also, the track of this storm makes it more potentially dangerous than Katrina because it’s coming in at the right angle to push all of its storm surge straight into Lake Ponchetrain, something Katrina wasn’t quite perfect for although it was more than bad enough. That could still change though.

  107. Smokey says:

    We need to get the President on the job!

  108. clipe says:

    geran says:
    August 26, 2012 at 4:37 pm

    …meanwhile, back to the hurricane…

    Last info I have found (about an hour ago) Isaac is not even an official hurricane–only wind speeds of 60 kph. The predictions are that it will intensify, but it will need a lot more “global warming”.

    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2012/

    ...CENTRAL/SRN FL...
    LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST MOVES THE CENTER OF ISAAC ACROSS THE LOWER
    FL KEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND WNWWD INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO
    TONIGHT. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE
    BANDS MOVING WNWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL. THERE HAS BEEN WEAK
    ROTATION INDICATED IN SEVERAL CELLS APPROACHING THE SERN FL
    COAST...AND BANDS TO THE NORTH HAVE DISPLAYED OCCASIONAL LEWP
    STRUCTURES. VISIBLE SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS SOME THINNING OF CLOUDS
    BETWEEN ADJACENT BANDS WHICH MAY PERMIT LOCALIZED ZONES OF STRONGER
    DIABATIC HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. 12Z AREA RAOBS AND CURRENT
    VAD WIND PROFILES AT KMFL AND KBYX INDICATE 45-50 KT WINDS IN THE
    LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL WHICH IS RESULTING IN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH
    IN THE LOWEST 1 KM OF 35 KT/250 M2/S2 RESPECTIVELY...WHICH WILL
    PROMOTE SMALL SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS. A
    FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
    TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS
    THAT DEVELOP.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

    What will tomorrow bring?

  109. Frederick Michael says:

    The latest up date shows a bit of SOUTHWEST movement.

    http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm9/atl9stormtrack_large.html

    Golly.

  110. Theo Goodwin says:

    I forgot the ‘/sarc off’. Repost:

    I guess that without the incredible power of global warming Isaac would have been a light rain storm. Key West was hit a little. They had some gusts to 70 mph, maybe. The mainland received light rain. /sarc off

    My guess is that it does no make landfall in the US as a major hurricane.

  111. _Jim says:

    Looks good Robt!

  112. Paul Coppin says:

    At the moment TS Isaac (it never was a hurricane) is static or dying. As of the 8pm update, even the NHC has no clue what its going to do. The rotational center is presently located approx 60 mi west of Key West and there’s not much water left in it, compared to earlier.

  113. Theo Goodwin says:

    The only useful report on Isaac can be found in the Miami Herald:

    http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/08/26/2969342/isaac-in-keys-15000-lose-power.html

    Isaac was considerably less than expected, from Key West to Miami. Let’s give the Herald a big round of applause for not sensationalizing Isaac and for reporting what happened. According to the Herald, Isaac was not a hurricane and even the warning was down graded to tropical storm.

    As for other news outlets, their headlines give the impression that south Florida was devastated.

  114. clipe says:

    Predicted roughly @ 96 MPH at landfall…155 X .62

  115. Frederick Michael says:

    The Western gulf has hotter water. A more western track could produce a stronger storm.

    http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/1-unisys-map.gif

    The dang thing gets more western with every update. The news coverage has been “Tampa-centric” thus far. (Is that stupid, or what?)

    Tomorrow, Isaac may be a totally different story — and a bigger one.

  116. kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/242054.shtml

    (…)
    BULLETIN
    TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
    800 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

    …CENTER OF ISAAC MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO…

    SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
    ———————————————-
    LOCATION…24.1N 82.6W
    ABOUT 60 MI…100 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
    ABOUT 530 MI…850 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…991 MB…29.26 INCHES
    (…)
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
    * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO DESTIN FLORIDA…INCLUDING
    METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS…LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN…AND LAKE MAUREPAS

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
    * EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
    * THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST
    COAST AND FROM TARPON SPRINGS SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.
    * FLORIDA KEYS…INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY
    * LAKE OKEECHOBEE
    * EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
    (…)

  117. Theo Goodwin says:

    “A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
    * THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST
    COAST…”

    Sebastian Inlet? That is way north of Fort Pierce and almost to Melbourne. That is about 200 miles from the light rain that fell in Miami. I guess Tropical Storm Warnings are very, very broad. (Sebastian Inlet is great for surfing. Maybe that’s what they were thinking about.)

    Go to the Miami Herald and watch the girls gleefully waiting for Isaac in a northerly key.

  118. Theo Goodwin says:

    The following is from the Miami Herald’s webpage:

    ‘“We always have people get injured or killed post-storm,” Broward Emergency Operations Director Chuck Lanza said Sunday afternoon, urging people to stay inside.

    CAUTION ADVISED

    He reminded pedestrians to keep clear of puddles and motorists to be extra cautious on the soaked and debris-strewn roadways. “If you can stay home and do things around the house, that’s the best idea,” he advised Sunday afternoon, once Isaac had passed with no immediate reports of extreme flooding or severe damage.’

    Yep, watch out for those puddles. In Florida, you must assume that every body of water contains alligators. Y’all be careful now, Ya’ heah? /sarc off

    We truly live in an age of hysteria. (Here I am referring to the other news outlets, not the Miami Herald.)

    Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/08/26/2969342/isaac-in-keys-15000-lose-power.html#storylink=cpy

  119. kramer says:

    A few days ago, I read (I think on Tom Nelson’s site) something about the hurricane missing the RNC by Big Joe B. I think he said it would go to the west of it and so far, he’s looking like he was right.

  120. Theo Goodwin says:

    Jeff D says:
    August 26, 2012 at 8:40 am
    “I am still clueless and confused as to why we as an ” Intelligent ” species refuses to learn from past disasters and without fail will rebuild in the very same place natural disasters tend to strike.”

    New Orleans is a treasure trove of history. For that reason, it is almost unique in the US.

  121. Thank you moderators.

    [ U R Welcome. ~dbs, mod.]

  122. Tom in Texas says:

    “New Orleans is a treasure trove of history. For that reason, it is almost unique in the US.”

    I think it was Mark Twain that called it one of the four unique cities in the U.S.
    The others: San Francisco, Boston, and San Antonio.

  123. Theo Goodwin says:

    Tom in Texas says:
    August 26, 2012 at 7:13 pm

    “I think it was Mark Twain that called it one of the four unique cities in the U.S.
    The others: San Francisco, Boston, and San Antonio.”

    Sounds about right to me. Leaving Bourbon Street to the young tourists, there is the Crescent City which was built on a crescent ridge along the Mississippi. That ridge does not flood and was not flooded by Katrina. It contains a treasure trove of architecture from the 1700s and some institutions, such as a convent, that have been in continuous operation. When you encounter some Cajun kid running a fish stand, you know that you are not entirely in the US any longer. It is a very rich city that rewards extended exploration.

  124. To Lady in Red,
    Isaac has not been born yet as a hurricane. It is still in the fetal tropical storm stage. When it becomes a hurricane sometime in the third trimester around Monday night, we will be able to talk about your issues. Until then Isaac is still a fetus, so now let’s keep on topic about the gulf coast and the impact this baby will have on it.

  125. kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:

    From Tom in Texas on August 26, 2012 at 7:13 pm:

    I think it was Mark Twain that called it one of the four unique cities in the U.S.
    The others: San Francisco, Boston, and San Antonio.

    So the “unique” ones are cesspools of iniquity and vanity, or in Texas.

    Or was San Antonio a lot more “unique” back in Samuel L. Clemens’ time?

  126. Grey Lensman says:

    So far Isaac has never been a hurricane, only a tropical storm. Yet according to the BBC it has lashed and pounded and wreaked havoc. God knows what it would have done if had been a Hurricane. I think they have a standard print block and they just substituted the correct “Tropical Storm” for the word Hurricane.

    As Somebody said Florida needs the rain.

  127. fthoma says:

    I saw something a bit weird this morning when I first turned to the satellite views for IR AVN. The center of circulation was Southeast of the eastern Cuban coast, and there was another point of circulation to the Northwest of Cuba, which looked like it was spinning up. With the half hour animation it appears that the low pressure centers of the two lows joined, the northerly system spun up through some transfer of angular momentum, and, within a half our the center was at the northwest point and the southern point turned chaotic. Is there an archive of the satellite views at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml ? I’d like to review this.

  128. Jeff D says:

    fthoma says:
    August 26, 2012 at 8:11 pm

    I saw something a bit weird this morning when I first turned to the satellite views
    ———————
    Yep that is what I noticed as well. Goofy storm.

  129. kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:

    11PM EDT update (same URL):
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/242054.shtml

    (…)
    BULLETIN
    TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 24
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
    1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

    …ISAAC FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN
    GULF OF MEXICO…

    SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
    ———————————————–
    LOCATION…24.2N 82.9W
    ABOUT 75 MI…120 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
    ABOUT 510 MI…820 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB…29.32 INCHES

    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    ——————–
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

    THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
    DISCONTINUED NORTH OF JUPITER INLET.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
    * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO DESTIN FLORIDA…INCLUDING
    METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS…LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN…AND LAKE MAUREPAS

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
    * EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
    * THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD ON THE
    EAST COAST AND FROM TARPON SPRINGS SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.
    * FLORIDA KEYS…INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY
    * LAKE OKEECHOBEE
    * EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
    (…)
    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ——————————
    AT 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST. ISAAC IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/H. A
    GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
    IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE
    CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT…
    MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY…AND APPROACH THE
    NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH…100 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…
    AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES…
    335 KM…MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
    38 MPH WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH HAS RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED AT OPA
    LOCKA AIRPORT NEAR MIAMI FLORIDA.

    THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
    HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS 993 MB…29.32 INCHES.
    (…)

    Angling slightly more to west, slow moving… Is anything going to happen anytime soon?

  130. _Jim says:

    fthoma says August 26, 2012 at 8:11 pm
    … Is there an archive of the satellite views at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml ? I’d like to review this.

    I don’t know about the nhc.noaa.gov website but one can go back as far as a week or so here and review satellite imagery in a loop:

    http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/

    .

  131. Mac the Knife says:

    fthoma says:
    August 26, 2012 at 8:11 pm
    Jeff D says:
    August 26, 2012 at 8:23 pm

    That’s what I was referring to as a ‘yin yang double center’ at 11:14am. It did it again after 3:00pm (pacific zone). Seems to have a barely repressed split personality…. weird!
    MtK

  132. Ian W says:

    If you look at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html you can see the level of infrared increasing as the convection has really increased over the Gulf.

  133. eric1skeptic says:

    Looks like Isaac is aimed at the Ozarks. As the drought there is eased the hand wringers will talk about too much rain. They will talk about how many names we have used up without mentioning how many names were wasted on marginal storms (Helene and Joyce recently).

  134. Ian W says:

    eric1skeptic says:
    August 27, 2012 at 2:05 am

    Looks like Isaac is aimed at the Ozarks. As the drought there is eased the hand wringers will talk about too much rain. They will talk about how many names we have used up without mentioning how many names were wasted on marginal storms (Helene and Joyce recently).

    The rules currently in use mean that Helen and Joyce will remain in the list and will be reused in six or seven years time. The names are ‘retired’ by the WMO loosely based on cost and lives lost.

    For Atlantic hurricanes, there is a list of names for each of six years. In other words, one list is repeated every seventh year. The only time that there is a change is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for obvious reasons of sensitivity. If that occurs, then at an annual meeting by the committee (called primarily to discuss many other issues) the offending name is stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it.
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames_history.shtml

    But there is a lot of debate on whether it makes sense to name a ‘fish storm’ that only briefly makes hurricane strength and that is only observed by satellite. This is usually because various groups start ‘a book’ on how many storms hurricanes etc in each season; rather like the current ‘excitement’ about forecasting the September extent of arctic ice. The difference for those in states that are in the hurricane firing line is that insurers look for excuses to raise rates and ‘an active year’ even though made up of 90% fish storms can raise rates.

  135. Eric (skeptic) says:

    Helene had a plane make 40 knot wind measurement a few hours before hitting Mexico. A named storm with no future potential whatsoever. Joyce had no measurements, just a satellite estimate of 35 knots. Perhaps the forecasters could be forgiven since they though it would intensify further. But it died immediately. Both “storms” lasted less than 6 hours.

  136. beng says:

    Isaac could be bad for NO, but perhaps provide much needed rain for parched Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri & Kansas.

  137. Old Nanook says:

    Just reviewed the latest from the NHC. I also went back to the graphics archives and watched the development of the projected tracks for this storm as well as the wind projections. It seems that the Issac tends not to live up to it’s billing — and it is worth noting that it has never been a hurricane, at least not yet. Perhaps it will strengthen to a Cat 1, but even officially, there is currently only a one-in-ten chance that it will reach Cat 2 of 96 mph. The people at NHC know that they are likely to incur the wrath of HQ if they fail to follow the party line about more intense and more frequent storms being caused by AGW, so they keep their estimates on the high side. And of course, the media could turn a tropic depression into the greatest threat to life-as-we-know-it in human history. I do not see where anyone is served by the exaggeration and alarmism and the folks at NHC lose credibility.

  138. Christian_J. says:

    This comment from the MiamiHerald just about sums up the attitude towards the Herald as well as the effects of the storm.

    “khill444444 • 17 hours ago −

    This massive storm is a menace. I just had a palm frond blow off one of my trees, slightly injuring a frog on my walkway. I and the frog thank for for your thoughts and prayers during this difficult time. I will be sending this to Phil Ferro at Channel 7, who obviously needs to put this on the news immediately.”

    I am undecided whether I should supply a “sarc” tag or not !

  139. Looks like it is going to arrive as a tropical storm. Many in the MSM are calling it Hurricane Isaac. Never was a hurricane. As of 1PM EDT it’s still a tropical storm.

  140. eric1skeptic says:

    True Nanook, they will send out the “hurricane hunter” and tell them to keep flying until they find a 74 mph wind or run out of fuel whichever comes first. Or Isaac makes it to hurricane, they will have to look for a cat 2 wind. It won’t matter if it’s one dropsonde in one sector.

  141. Code Monkey says:

    “Lady in Red says:
    August 25, 2012 at 7:35 pm
    blah blah blah… American taliban… blah blah blah… taliban in America… blah blah blah… anti-woman taliban…”

    What a disgusting string of hateful tirades. Your repeated use of the such an offensive term, much more offensive than ‘denier’, suggests that you’re far less interested in persuading than you are in insulting.

  142. clipe says:

    I saw something a bit weird this morning when I first turned to the satellite views for IR AVN. The center of circulation was Southeast of the eastern Cuban coast, and there was another point of circulation to the Northwest of Cuba, which looked like it was spinning up. With the half hour animation it appears that the low pressure centers of the two lows joined, the northerly system spun up through some transfer of angular momentum, and, within a half our the center was at the northwest point and the southern point turned chaotic. Is there an archive of the satellite views at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml ? I’d like to review this.

    It’s all Greek to me but the discussion over at flhurricane.com may have covered what you saw.

    “vertical stacking”, “decoupled”, “mid-level winds”…etc.

    http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=93711&page=0&fpart=all&vc=2

  143. clipe says:

    Correction

    fthoma says:
    August 26, 2012 at 8:11 pm

    I saw something a bit weird this morning when I first turned to the satellite views for IR AVN. The center of circulation was Southeast of the eastern Cuban coast, and there was another point of circulation to the Northwest of Cuba, which looked like it was spinning up. With the half hour animation it appears that the low pressure centers of the two lows joined, the northerly system spun up through some transfer of angular momentum, and, within a half our the center was at the northwest point and the southern point turned chaotic. Is there an archive of the satellite views at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml ? I’d like to review this.

    It’s all Greek to me but the discussion over at flhurricane.com may have covered what you saw.

    “vertical stacking”, “decoupled”, “mid-level winds”…etc.

    http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=93711&page=0&fpart=all&vc=2

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