The track models have all been pointing to the Gulf coast rather than central Florida, this plot of 10 meter wind velocity through August 31st is from WeatherBell’s newly setup HWRF model website by hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue:
The brown colors near the eye indicate sustained wind speeds of 100 to 130 knots (115 to 150 mph). That would make Isaac likely a category 4 hurricane when it makes landfall, with likely higher gusts. The track takes it across the Florida keys, near Ft. Meyers, FL, and onto the Gulf Coast. It is expected to intensify in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico once it clears the west coast of Florida. The turn towards the NNE isn’t forecast to happen until after landfall in the model.
UPDATE: The new forecast for today has lower wind speeds and the track has shifted west to the delta of the Mississippi river:
Here’s a more detailed closeup 4 panel model view for the time Isaac is forecast to make landfall:
And here is the update for today:
Obviously a lot can change, but this bears watching and getting out of the way of. I’ll have updates to this page soon, and an Isaac reference page will be setup on WUWT for keeping track of it.
Rainfall from Isaac looks to be between 10 and 20 inches along its path:
here’s the update for Sunday, about the same, but in the worst place possible:
Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. has been looking at some damage model estimates earlier today and writes:
The median historical damage from this set of analogue storms is $1.6 billion, with an incredibly wide range. Currently the NHC projects Issac to make landfall along the Gulf coast as a category 2 storm. There are 5 historical analogues in the set above with normalized damage ranging $1 billion (Georges, 1998) to $4.4 billion (Gustav, 2008). Category 3 and 4 storms have resulted in much higher damage. I’ll update these numbers as Issac gets closer to the Gulf Coast.
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Calm down Dears. It won’t be a big one.
Dang! Pack your belongings and pets and head North Dixie!
Is this a bad omen for the RNC? I hope not.
Relax.
There’s a republican governor in charge of Louisiana this time.
I am not so sure this won’t intensify. The new model tracks are a lot West of the old well away from the mid-Florida coast, giving a long sea track and with many now looking like a direct hit on Lake Pontchartrain which is the worst direction for New Orleans. (if you want to see all the various models you can go to http://spaghettimodels.com/ a kind of one-stop shop for meteorological models in the South East.)
The Gulf of Mexico SSTs are in the mid 80s F which is around average for this time of year and if the wind shear stays favorable this could be a nasty storm.
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animator.php?139
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?140
This is clearly Barack Obama’s doing. He’s trying to get even for the hurricane he claimed George Bush caused. Need proof, look at the timing with the RNC events. Now that Obama is President and has all that power, he likes using it, too. 😉
Come to think of it, he’ll probably blame this on George Bush, too.
The Euro model saw this solution four days ago. The GFS has done quite poorly with the evolution of this storm.
I wouldn’t discount this so quick Dave. Shear is weak, track will allow for strengthening over open water…deep convection really winding up around the center right now.
It doesn’t look as bad as Katrina. If it shifts to the west of NO then it’s bye-bye for NO. I’ve had great times on Bourbon St there years ago.
Mario Lento says:
August 25, 2012 at 6:02 pm
No, it is good. I suspect this duress will promote teamwork and unity.
What is the other choice again?
Towards the post
That is great technology if hindsight proves it right.
Kinda scary seeing the future in that respect if so, but a good thing in the end.
Nerd says:
August 25, 2012 at 6:50 pm
It doesn’t look as bad as Katrina. If it shifts to the west of NO then it’s bye-bye for NO. I’ve had great times on Bourbon St there years ago.
The worst track is the one currently forecast with storm surge into Lake Pontchartrain that would really stress the New Orleans flood defenses as will the huge amount of rain – 10 – 20 inches. I think Le Quartier Français will survive as always as it was built by people who thought about flooding and storms. But much of the other more recent areas of New Orleans are below sea level including the newly rebuilt areas of the 9th Ward.
[I had thought it would have been sensible to dig canals between all the flooded 9th Ward houses use the earth that was dug out to raise the houses and then you have water front property above sea level with roads in front and canals behind. The canals would slow and dissipate storm surges protecting the other parts of New Orleans. It would have led to a big jump in land and house values and have brought more builders in. ]
In several places above, Isaac is misspelled Issac; please correct.
I hope everyone will be safe; even if Isaac doesn’t hit 130 mph, it’s still a big potent storm.
REPLY: I found one instance in my text, fixed, and the other two are in Dr. Roger Pielke’s text, which I can’t correct – Anthony
If you live anywhere along the Gulf Coast from near New Orleans, eastward to the Florida Panhandle, you need to really pay attention to Isaac, and where he is headed. His exact track and strength is not yet set in stone, and will likely change several more times over the next couple of days. But make no mistake folks, he has his sights set on the Gulf of Mexico, and he is coming your way if you live in the above mentioned areas.
However, the various computer models (NHC Models), GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, CMC have all been tracking Isaac inland between these areas by next Tuesday or Wednesday. The latest model trends today have been shifting Isaac’s forecast track further west….possibly making landfall in the New Orleans, Biloxi, Mobile, Pascagoula areas on Tuesday. This may change.
Isaac has the potential to become at least a Category 3 Hurricane, maybe even stronger, once he enters the central Gulf of Mexico south of the Florida Peninsula. The surface water temperatures over the central Gulf of Mexico are about as warm as they get….mid 80’s to near 90.
Isaac is already a very large cyclone, and may get even bigger in size once he encounters these very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Model forecasts also indicate that the winds aloft will be very light, with little to no shear when Isaac enters this area. Environmental conditions will be nearly ideal for Isaac to potentially explode into a monster of a Hurricane.
Isaac is no joke, and please do not wait until the last minute trying to decide if you are going to prepare for his landfall, if you live in the above mentioned areas.
I hope, I hope, I hope…. Isaac gives the GOP some breathing room to re-think their American taliban Constituional Amendment forced birthing position and the extent they ain’t so far from Akin after all….
…to watch the MoveOn and Obama ad about govt controlling a woman’s body, rights….
…and re-group: win the election. Go Isaac! ….Lady in Red
The forecasts above show the storm east of NO and Lake P. The storm surge is in the center and to the right of the storm because that’s where the onshore winds are.
SS says:
August 25, 2012 at 6:33 pm
“The Euro model saw this solution four days ago. The GFS has done quite poorly with the evolution of this storm.”
Yes, GFS has not performed well for this storm, thankfully! The farther west it tracks the better for my area although as we remember with Charley in 2004, it ain’t over til the fat lady passes by. In addition, we have had lots of rain recently in this area up through Tampa so even just a few more inches all at once may create a huge problem.
Reblogged this on Climate Ponderings and commented:
BUT BUT I bought Carbon off-sets credits
Pielke Jr says: The median historical damage from this set of analogue storms is $1.6 billion …
Just as well it’s not a digital storm then. 😉
Maybe the good Dr meant analogous storms.
The brown shows a cat 4 when it makes landfall. As long as you don’t count Key West and the other Florida Keys as land.
The latest track from the NHC has Isaac hitting closer to Pensacola but either way it could be bad, very bad. The trajectory in these models brings the storm surge directly in towards New Orleans and if it’s a Cat 4 storm the chance of a repeat of Katrina will be VERY high. Definitely a serious situation.
“I had thought it would have been sensible to dig canals between all the flooded 9th Ward houses use the earth that was dug out to raise the houses and then you have water front property above sea level with roads in front and canals behind.”
And those canals would drain to … where?
Don’t worry about those Republicans. Earlier this week I delivered a load of 200 mile per hour duct tape to Tampa. So their Whigs won’t get blowed away.
3M Racing Products
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Jorge said
Quote
And those canals would drain to … where?
Unquote
Ask the dutch!
It would also help to mass replant the mangroves and reduce the number of shipping channels but increase the quality of those remaining