I don’t have much time for a detailed post, a number of people want to discuss sea ice, so here is your chance. We also need to update the ARCUS forecast for August, due Monday August 6th. Poll follows:
Never mind. There’s nothing happening in the Arctic any way! REPLY: As usual, Günther plays the smart ass with snark. He’s actually Neven. No scruples with this one. – Anthony
Layne
August 4, 2012 7:22 am
I am wondering if they haven’t fiddled with the algorithm in order to get a lower minimum.
[REPLY: Some reasoning and/or evidence to support the wondering would be nice, otherwise it is just aspersion-casting. -REP]
Caleb
August 4, 2012 7:24 am
Did anyone notice the black plume of something (smoke?) on the horizon, in the pictures taken by North Pole Camera #1 Yesterday, (August 3.) It appeared in four pictures. You can see the pictures by Clicking on the “Sea Ice Page,” scrolling down to the “Drifting ‘NorthPole’ Camera” picture, and then clicking the “WebCam#1 Archive” tab to the right, under the picture.
What’s Up With That?
Camburn
August 4, 2012 7:26 am
I agree Gunther. There is nothing happening in the Arctic that hasn’t happened in the recent past when looking at the data through climate lenses.
Now, if you want to talk about weather…..that is a different story.
I find it meaningful that the 2nd largest vote tally comes right around the ARCUS forecast.
Kelvin Vaughan
August 4, 2012 7:34 am
Caleb says:
August 4, 2012 at 7:24 am
Did anyone notice the black plume of something (smoke?) on the horizon, in the pictures taken by North Pole Camera #1 Yesterday, (August 3.) It appeared in four pictures. You can see the pictures by Clicking on the “Sea Ice Page,” scrolling down to the “Drifting ‘NorthPole’ Camera” picture, and then clicking the “WebCam#1 Archive” tab to the right, under the picture.
What’s Up With That?
That’s Zwally’s soot spray!
Rod Everson
August 4, 2012 7:48 am
Just a suggestion for a site improvement, Anthony. Could you put a map of the Arctic on the Sea Ice Page that indicates the various seas that make up the Arctic Ocean? I think that would be useful given the volume of traffic you get and the many times that various seas are referred to by name in the comments. I just spent several minutes Googling the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas and never did get to a map that had the full layout of both seas. Thanks for considering this. (And if it’s already on the site somewhere, could someone will post its location?–If it is on the site already, moving it to the Sea Ice Page, or duplicating it there would seem logical, by the way.)
[REPLY: I find this one helpful, myself. -REP]
pjie2
August 4, 2012 7:51 am
It’s the edge of a water droplet on the camera lens. Look through the archive, it happens a lot.
Ecco the Dolphin
August 4, 2012 7:55 am
Can those who voted >5.5 M Km2 explain their choice?
It would take a sudden and unexpected change of melting trend for that to happen in my opinion.
To me, seeing that arctic ice concentration appears to be overall visibly worse than 2007, with currently slightly less extent than 2007 and relatively large areas quickly melting in the last few days, it seems it wouldn’t be a pessimistic estimate to vote around 4.0-4.2 M Km2 as a minimum for this year.
Caleb
August 4, 2012 7:58 am
The four “black plume” pictures will eventually get “bumped” off the photo album you see, when you click “Webcam #1 Archive.” At that point you have to go to the bottom of that page-of-pictures, and click “Webcam #1” That will give you a list of every picture taken since they set the camera up last April 6. Then you scroll down to August. The last picture from August 3 and first three from August 4 have the odd black plume on the horizon.
I actually think it is a swarm of migrating penguins moving up from the south pole. (You didn’t know those critters could fly, but this offers proof.)
Caleb
August 4, 2012 8:01 am
Only the edge of a water droplet? Hmmm.
Never Mind.
With changes in atmospheric CO2 levels my guess is we will see an end to summer in America as early as this year and with that a noticable global cooling over the entire northern hemisphere.
beesaman
August 4, 2012 8:04 am
Neven has become so shrill with his warmist agenda that I’ve lost faith in his site’s objectivity so I look elsewhere for the data now…pity really…
Bryan A
August 4, 2012 8:13 am
Caleb says:
August 4, 2012 at 7:58 am
The four “black plume” pictures will eventually get “bumped” off the photo album you see, when you click “Webcam #1 Archive.” At that point you have to go to the bottom of that page-of-pictures, and click “Webcam #1″ That will give you a list of every picture taken since they set the camera up last April 6. Then you scroll down to August. The last picture from August 3 and first three from August 4 have the odd black plume on the horizon.
This is the first image with the “Plume” http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2012/WEBCAM1/ARCHIVE/npeo_cam1_20120803141154.jpg
and this is the last http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2012/WEBCAM1/ARCHIVE/npeo_cam1_20120803201639.jpg
it does appear to be something on the lens
fredb
August 4, 2012 8:16 am
@beesaman: “Shrill with his warmist agenda”??? Where do you see that on http://neven1.typepad.com? I’ve always found his text refreshingly agnostic.
Neven, you are correct. There’s nothing going on in the Arctic, that hasn’t already happened at least a score of times in the past 10,000 years.
RCS
August 4, 2012 8:36 am
Interestingly, the DMI temperature profile has been consistently below normal during the current melt season while there has been a rapid loss of ice.
kent Blaker
August 4, 2012 8:43 am
The minimum sea ice area/extent is more dependent on wind than temperature. The minimum for 2007 was almost the same as 2008..9..10..11. Will we see 2012 being the same? We all wait with eager anticipation.
Plume or debris ?
Considering the exact shape of the central bulge of said plume exists 6 hours later unchanged, but the overall size of the item is shrinking, I say melting ice on the lens. How fitting 🙂
beng
August 4, 2012 9:12 am
****
Ecco the Dolphin says:
August 4, 2012 at 7:55 am To me, seeing that arctic ice concentration appears to be overall visibly worse than 2007
****
One could easily change “worse” to “better”.
Robert of Ottawa
August 4, 2012 9:23 am
Yes, it’s very interesting Caleb. I e-mailed the webmaster to ask; not the correct addressee but I couldn’t find a proper one.
Never mind. There’s nothing happening in the Arctic any way!
REPLY: As usual, Günther plays the smart ass with snark. He’s actually Neven. No scruples with this one. – Anthony
I am wondering if they haven’t fiddled with the algorithm in order to get a lower minimum.
[REPLY: Some reasoning and/or evidence to support the wondering would be nice, otherwise it is just aspersion-casting. -REP]
Did anyone notice the black plume of something (smoke?) on the horizon, in the pictures taken by North Pole Camera #1 Yesterday, (August 3.) It appeared in four pictures. You can see the pictures by Clicking on the “Sea Ice Page,” scrolling down to the “Drifting ‘NorthPole’ Camera” picture, and then clicking the “WebCam#1 Archive” tab to the right, under the picture.
What’s Up With That?
I agree Gunther. There is nothing happening in the Arctic that hasn’t happened in the recent past when looking at the data through climate lenses.
Now, if you want to talk about weather…..that is a different story.
This was over on “Tips and Notes.” It’s curious, as if the guys who drill for oil are saying there’s thick ice where the pictures we look at say there is less ice.
Mike Lallatin says:
August 4, 2012 at 2:16 am
For a valid declaration of current ice conditions in the Chukchi Sea:
http://gcaptain.com/aiviq-waits-in-dutch-harbor/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Gcaptain+%28gCaptain.com%29
I find it meaningful that the 2nd largest vote tally comes right around the ARCUS forecast.
Caleb says:
August 4, 2012 at 7:24 am
Did anyone notice the black plume of something (smoke?) on the horizon, in the pictures taken by North Pole Camera #1 Yesterday, (August 3.) It appeared in four pictures. You can see the pictures by Clicking on the “Sea Ice Page,” scrolling down to the “Drifting ‘NorthPole’ Camera” picture, and then clicking the “WebCam#1 Archive” tab to the right, under the picture.
What’s Up With That?
That’s Zwally’s soot spray!
Just a suggestion for a site improvement, Anthony. Could you put a map of the Arctic on the Sea Ice Page that indicates the various seas that make up the Arctic Ocean? I think that would be useful given the volume of traffic you get and the many times that various seas are referred to by name in the comments. I just spent several minutes Googling the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas and never did get to a map that had the full layout of both seas. Thanks for considering this. (And if it’s already on the site somewhere, could someone will post its location?–If it is on the site already, moving it to the Sea Ice Page, or duplicating it there would seem logical, by the way.)
[REPLY: I find this one helpful, myself. -REP]
It’s the edge of a water droplet on the camera lens. Look through the archive, it happens a lot.
Can those who voted >5.5 M Km2 explain their choice?
It would take a sudden and unexpected change of melting trend for that to happen in my opinion.
To me, seeing that arctic ice concentration appears to be overall visibly worse than 2007, with currently slightly less extent than 2007 and relatively large areas quickly melting in the last few days, it seems it wouldn’t be a pessimistic estimate to vote around 4.0-4.2 M Km2 as a minimum for this year.
The four “black plume” pictures will eventually get “bumped” off the photo album you see, when you click “Webcam #1 Archive.” At that point you have to go to the bottom of that page-of-pictures, and click “Webcam #1” That will give you a list of every picture taken since they set the camera up last April 6. Then you scroll down to August. The last picture from August 3 and first three from August 4 have the odd black plume on the horizon.
I actually think it is a swarm of migrating penguins moving up from the south pole. (You didn’t know those critters could fly, but this offers proof.)
Only the edge of a water droplet? Hmmm.
Never Mind.
With changes in atmospheric CO2 levels my guess is we will see an end to summer in America as early as this year and with that a noticable global cooling over the entire northern hemisphere.
Neven has become so shrill with his warmist agenda that I’ve lost faith in his site’s objectivity so I look elsewhere for the data now…pity really…
Caleb says:
August 4, 2012 at 7:58 am
The four “black plume” pictures will eventually get “bumped” off the photo album you see, when you click “Webcam #1 Archive.” At that point you have to go to the bottom of that page-of-pictures, and click “Webcam #1″ That will give you a list of every picture taken since they set the camera up last April 6. Then you scroll down to August. The last picture from August 3 and first three from August 4 have the odd black plume on the horizon.
This is the first image with the “Plume”
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2012/WEBCAM1/ARCHIVE/npeo_cam1_20120803141154.jpg
and this is the last
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2012/WEBCAM1/ARCHIVE/npeo_cam1_20120803201639.jpg
it does appear to be something on the lens
@beesaman: “Shrill with his warmist agenda”??? Where do you see that on http://neven1.typepad.com? I’ve always found his text refreshingly agnostic.
Looks like no ice come November. 😉
My honest guess is 4.8 million sq-km.
Neven, you are correct. There’s nothing going on in the Arctic, that hasn’t already happened at least a score of times in the past 10,000 years.
Interestingly, the DMI temperature profile has been consistently below normal during the current melt season while there has been a rapid loss of ice.
The minimum sea ice area/extent is more dependent on wind than temperature. The minimum for 2007 was almost the same as 2008..9..10..11. Will we see 2012 being the same? We all wait with eager anticipation.
Re the ice situation in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, NOAA has a new initiative for the oil industry: ERMA from which this image is taken:
more here
Plume or debris ?
Considering the exact shape of the central bulge of said plume exists 6 hours later unchanged, but the overall size of the item is shrinking, I say melting ice on the lens. How fitting 🙂
****
Ecco the Dolphin says:
August 4, 2012 at 7:55 am
To me, seeing that arctic ice concentration appears to be overall visibly worse than 2007
****
One could easily change “worse” to “better”.
Yes, it’s very interesting Caleb. I e-mailed the webmaster to ask; not the correct addressee but I couldn’t find a proper one.