(elevated from a comment on the Putting Piers Corbyn to the test thread ) Willis Eschenbach says:
Martin Gordon says:
I note that Piers is declaring this period (13/14) a success on the Weather Action website.
Thanks for the link, Martin. I hope folks are starting to see why Piers claims such a high success rate. Here’s his map for the period:
OK, so what are the important parts of his forecast? Obviously, it’s the shaded areas where he predicts “thunder, tornados, and giant hail” in the north central region, and “thunder, tornados, and large hail”, in red meaning extreme warning, for the Great Lakes and eastward.
Here are his claims that he says “verify” his forecast.
R4 period 13-14 July extreme events verification:
=> USA
– Sev Thunder events Seattle ~13-14th http:fb.me/23Zp3jkkI CONFIRMS WeatherAction long range specific warning for 13-15th on USA Maps forecast 13-15 July + Piers discusses on fb
Let me echo Martin’s amazement that a single comment on Facebook is taken as a verification of his forecast. Anyhow, here’s the Facebook comment (emphasis mine)
Severe Thunderstorms Possible In Seattle (1:10PM PDT 7/13/12 -Charchenko) Hello everyone, after those exciting thunderstorms arriving earlier than usual through the seattle metro area. Were in a break in the weather right now up and down the I5 corridor but storms are still rumbling around port townsend and sequim areas. We are under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms west of puget sound which is extremely rare and usually only happens once every 5 years. We could see some large hail around 1″ and damaging winds possible, we could even see a few supercells! We will continue to update throughout the day monitoring these storms!
To which Piers replies:
Thanks for informative posting. VERY INTERESTING. Our WeatherAction long range forecast issued June29th [Free this month, email piers@weatheraction.com with ‘USA PLEASE’ in title bar] predicts thunder in Pacific NW ~ WA, OR, ID, MT for 13-15th July (and did not predict any for July prior to that). Thanks, Piers
I suppose you could claim that someone on Facebook saying “severe thunderstorms possible” is a verification of the forecast, but take a look at the actual weather service storm, hail, and tornado reports for those two days …
Very little happening there at all, certainly no concentrations of thunderstorms, either in his forecast areas or anywhere.
– 13 July BIGGEST hail in 30yrs http://www.king5.com/your-news/162444096.html WA NW USA
– Sev Thunder Warning Union+Wallowa Co OR 14th till 3:00pm PDT. #orwx CONFIRMS WeatherAction long range thunder specific forecast for OR 13-15th
I’m sorry, but a single report of hail in Oregon absolutely does not confirm a forecast of hail in the upper midwest, or Great Lakes/New England. Piers forecast said NOTHING about hail in the Pacific Northwest, this is totally bogus.
– Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of the area in ID until 11:00pmMDT/10:00pmPDT. #idwx CONFIRMS WeatherAction long range thunder specific forecast for ID13-15th
Again, there may have been a “severe thunderstorm watch” for Idaho … so what? Take another look at the actual storms shown above. I gotta give him credit, though … he has used other people’s warnings and claims that thunderstorms are “possible”, and also thunderstorm watches, in other words other people’s forecasts, as confirmation of his own forecasts. This is sheer forecasting genius, right up there with claiming that a forecast of a 50% chance of a typhoon was verified by no typhoons.
Finally, take another look at the map of his forecasts, and compare it to the storm reports. The few places that there actually was hail in the US were places that he did not forecast hail. The places he gave the strongest forecast for extreme thunderstorms, hail, and tornados saw only a couple scattered thunderstorms, not a single report of hail, and no tornadoes.
And yet he is trumpeting these results as a verification of his forecast? I gotta say, “verification” must mean something very different on his planet.
w.
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The day that a weather forecaster gets it right more then chance is when weather stops being weather. Luckily we can predict climate decades away. /sarc
The Seattle to Portland Bike event is this weekend, so I have special interest in this weekend’s weather.
The official forecast, up until Friday was “sunny, highs of 76-80.”
As of Friday, the forecast changed to “cloudy, cool, showers” and a thunderstorm came
through areas last night. Lots of drizzle areas, etc.
So, right now, for the Seattle/Portland area, “cool, showery, some thunder” predicted 2 weeks out stomps on the weather service and is about as close to describing what is happening as you can get with the English language. Go check the traffic cams.
The FAA has a web site set up with web cams placed at airports so pilots can see real time weather plus include a briefing forecast. However, the weather changes and varies from the forecast and the pilot ends up diverting or returning. Point is that weather forecasting is predicting a chaos picture that has probabilities beyond our capacity.
From weather forecasting is easier when it is happening just down the road and you are the next target moments away. However, the long range forecasts even in general are “chance” driven. I think people are often too enamored with the sensationalism and drama in weather forecasting and presentation.
Thanks for posting this. I am glad to see that even AGW skeptics like Piers Corbyn get the critical analysis they deserve.
Piers claims to have a secret exclusive technique to be able to forecast the weather well ahead of anyone else and furthermore regularly trumpets the accuracy of their predictions; he deserves Willis’ scorn.
Like those who claim exclusive insight into the affects of CO2 and man-made global warming catastrophes or those who scream about the “sun” and the coming maunder minimum, both extremes largely make unsubstantiated claims based on far too many assumptions!
It is so sad that the lamestream media reports such unsubstantiated nonsense regularly when it comes to the environment.
Modern society is clearly no better than the Iron or Medieval ages (characterized as periods when nonsensical superstitions abounded)!!!
For clarity here is the summary forecast from Piers’ forecst.
”JULY 13-15 A change in circulation. Low pressure in North part of West USA, so showery Vancouver & NWP coast. Major thunderstorms, with large hail, tornados and local flooding in lower mid-West, south of Lakes and in north central parts of USA. Forest fires in S/W re-ignite Standard meteorology in this period will substantially underestimate levels of precipitation and strengths of thunderstorms, tornado risk, hail and winds.”
I remember being taken to the circus in Chicago when I was about 4 or 5 (1947 or 48) and being greatly impressed by the clowns who my father knew personally. After the performance I was sitting on the dressing table when his friend pulled off his big red nose. I began to cry but I also learned something about entertainment and role of clowns in it.
My wife is a great fan of Piers, which might be a source of some friction, as I consider him a snake oil salesman, but, luckily, I am a great fan of my wife
If you want a reply from Piers just check out this presentation to a S.A. Green group.
http://climaterealists.com/?id=9947
Piers at his eccentric best.
The map is sufficiently general as to be useless in most places. Take the OR-WA region. It is often cool and showery with some thunder somewhere within this diverse area in mid-July. There are sea level communities, coastal mountains, the Olympics, the Cascade Range, high volcanoes, and a lower elevation interior. Then to predict “hot” in the USA’s southwest in mid-July is an easy call. Likewise winds off the Gulf of Mexico into the middle south.
Then again, “giant” hail in the upper-Midwest versus only “large” hail in the OH-PA-NY region might be worthy of confirmation.
My idea of large hail would be, say, larger than ¾ of an inch (~2 cm).
Giant hail would be, say, larger than 2.5 inches (~6.5 cm).
Again, these are big regions and typical weather (“climo”) will include storms with hail. So, where was the “giant” hail? Where was the “large” hail?
Piers’ long range forecasts should be compared to other long range forecasts, not Willis’ hindcasts. Where are Willis’ long range forecasts for comparison? Willis: Go head-to-head with Piers for one year of long-range forecasting and see how you do. See if you can even beat random forecasts. Piers has nailed everything for Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada from 15 days out (first 2 weeks of July 2012) while the long range forecasts people commonly use on their cell phones here have been completely wrong. He predicted exactly when there would be changes in circulatory patterns and we experienced concordant weather pattern shifts. Willis, all you seem to have to offer is negativity & criticism; how about offering something constructive http://i49.tinypic.com/2jg5tvr.png instead of destructive?
The sole basis upon which the legitamacy of AGW theory hangs is the premise that long term weather is even easier to predict than short term weather. That is why skeptics see Climatology as being baseless.
The climatism of the weather fearmongers has evolved to the point now where it has the credibility of earthquake prediction science. The official `science’ of the global warming alarmist community is simply to pray for catastrophe and then point. The only real `consensus’ that exists, now that Bush is gone, is to simply blame capitalism whatever Nature brings our way.
Well Willis, ain’t that a howdy doo. While we are chanting one day/week/month is not gorebull warming you come along and highlight ONE specific forecast of Piers’ and Weather Action and proclaim him close to fraudulent.
Ahem, he CLAIMS about an 80% I believe. Wouldn’t about 10 forecasts be needed to even BEGIN deciding whether he is full of it or not???
Nice, Willis!
Whatever side one takes, there are always idiots and charlatans on the along for the ride or for their own benefit. In this argument, it is good to see that the skeptical side deals equally with allies and foes. The warmist side, from the IPCC to Gore to the EPA, uncritically parrots anything that furthers its cause.
How about a comparitive summary against other forecasters, here in the UK he beats the Met Office hands down whose accuracy increases markedly if you invert their long range forcasts.
Seems to be valid from looking here http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120713_rpts.html
Hail Reports (CSV) (Raw Hail CSV)(?)
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2121 150 SILVER LAKE MCLEOD MN 4490 9420 OFFICER IN SILVER LAKE REPORTED QUATER TO PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL. (MPX)
2233 150 3 WNW MENDOTA HENNEPIN MN 4490 9322 (MPX)
2249 100 4 WNW FARIBAULT RICE MN 4433 9335 (MPX)
0022 100 6 NW BANCROFT KOSSUTH IA 4334 9431 TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (DMX)
0032 175 3 W BANCROFT KOSSUTH IA 4330 9429 GROUND COVERED IN GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL STONES. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (DMX)
0032 100 2 SW FROST FARIBAULT MN 4356 9396 (MPX)
0042 100 5 NE BRICELYN FARIBAULT MN 4361 9374 SIGNIFICANT CROP DAMAGE REPORTED FROM LARGE HAIL. (MPX)
0044 100 4 S BANCROFT KOSSUTH IA 4324 9423 (DMX)
0045 100 2 NNE BRICELYN FARIBAULT MN 4359 9379 (MPX)
0100 125 4 S ALDEN FREEBORN MN 4361 9357 HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR 10 MINUTES. (MPX)
0123 100 1 E MANCHESTER FREEBORN MN 4372 9343 (MPX)
0130 100 1 S WHITTEMORE KOSSUTH IA 4305 9442 (DMX)
0135 200 WHITTEMORE KOSSUTH IA 4306 9442 HAIL SIZE ESTIMATED FROM PHOTO SENT INTO KCCI WEBSITE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (DMX)
0210 100 3 SE WEST BEND KOSSUTH IA 4293 9442 (DMX)
0335 100 8 SE DIXIE WALLA WALLA WA 4606 11804 RECEIVED MOSTLY NICKEL SIZED HAIL WITH SOME STONES QUARTER SIZED. ALSO HAD 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. BELIEVES THAT LOCAL WHEAT CROP WAS DAMAGED BY THE HAIL. (PDT)
Right now (14:45), in Chelsea QC, just north of Ottawa, I can hear the sound of thunder happening. The date is Sunday, July 15, 2012. There is at least a thunderstorm going on in the area called “south of Lakes” on the map for July. I don’t know if it is just south of the Ottawa area, that there is something going on that look like ““thunder, tornados, and large hail”, in red meaning extreme warning, for the Great Lakes and eastward”. Since the north fringe of the area covered by Piers, the circle include the Ottawa area.
By the way, we didn’t had any rain for several weeks now. And not much is planned for the comming days. Maybe it’s just a “chance” that some of its prediction comes through.
Papy Boomer
Why are we not allowed to check Corbyns past predictions of weather without having to pay and if we do pay there’s restricted access? Using astrology to predict weather and you folk give him the oxygen of publicity? You’re so funny. A science web site?
Does he also make stock market predictions?
(Maybe there’s a solar Elliott Wave)
Anyone who could give a forecast more than 50% of the time close (not accurate) to what follows is doing reasonable job. In my experience both Dr. Corbyn and the British Met Office are above the line.
Dr Corbyn emphasizes his successes because he has to earn living, Met Office ignores their failures since they have to earn their living too.
See below:
Jim R says:
July 15, 2012 at 12:06 pm
Why are we not allowed to check Corbyns past predictions of weather without having to pay and if we do pay there’s restricted access? Using astrology to predict weather and you folk give him the oxygen of publicity? You’re so funny. A science web site?
Why do you bother to post this? There is no such thing as a free lunch. Astrology? ASTROLOGY? Waterstones, or even Tesco sell dictionarys, please buy one.
He might have a future with the Farmer’s Almanac …
Whatever else one might throw at (C)AGW skeptics in the way of criticism, one should acknowledge that their attempts to undo “over-baked science” is indiscriminate – friend or foe beware.
Ummm … the eastern half of Texas from Houston to the Red River has not been very hot, rather, we have had seasonable weather. Here in North Central Texas temps have been in the low to mid 90s with 70 deg dew point which is par for the course here … also we have had and are having afternoon T-showers in the area … Take a look at the present WV satellite imagery for this period, note the low that moved from LA to TX in the last 24 hrs; this has contributed to our conditions the last couple days …
.
Hmm.
ice doesnt look too well
http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_compare.jpg
I wonder if we will get significant ( visible by sensor from space ) open water inside the
85n line. extent is dropping by big rates…2007 record could get crushed.
the right weather… and we could hit ‘ice free’ ( 1 million sqkm in area) this year.
or not.
As far as the Vancouver forecast mentioned by Paul Vaughan, Environment Canada was 48 hours ago calling for sun and clouds on Sunday and sunny with a few clouds for the next five days. This morning they offered thunderstorms and rainy until Thursday. Thunderstorm indeed occurred over the lower Mainland… So Piers was spot on for this week end in southwest BC i.e. a 100km north of Seattle.
Instead of this highly questionable post and the previous one, why not invite Piers to write a detailed post on his forecast?