Global Temperature Report: March 2012
- U.S. hits record highs in March,
- Iowa is ‘warmest’ place on Earth
- Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.13 C per decade
March temperatures (preliminary)
Global composite temp.: +0.11 C (about 0.20 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for March.
Northern Hemisphere: +0.13 C (about 0.23 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for March.
Southern Hemisphere: +0.09 C (about 0.16 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for March.
Tropics: -0.11 C (about 0.20 degrees Fahrenheit) below 30- year average for March.
February temperatures (revised):
Global Composite: -0.11 C below 30-year average
Northern Hemisphere: -0.01 C below 30-year average
Southern Hemisphere: -0.21 C below 30-year average
Tropics: -0.28 C below 30-year average
(All temperature anomalies are based on a 30-year average
(1981-2010) for the month reported.)
Notes on data released April 3, 2012:
Compared to seasonal norms, March 2012 was the warmest month on record in the 48 contiguous U.S. states, according to Dr. John Christy, a professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. Temperatures over the U.S. averaged 2.82 C (almost 5.1° Fahrenheit) warmer than normal in March.
The previous U.S. record warm anomaly in the 33-year satellite temperature record was in November 1999, when temperatures over the U.S. averaged 2.22 C (about 4° F)
warmer than the seasonal norm for November. The next warmest March was in 2007, when temperatures over the U.S. were 2.0 C (about 3.2° F) warmer than normal.
While the long-term climate trend over the U.S. has seen warming at the rate of about 0.21 C (almost 0.38° F) per decade during the past one third of a century, March’s temperature anomaly is just that: an anomaly, Christy said. “We see hot and cold spots over the globe every month, and this was just our turn. A one-time anomaly like this is related to weather rather than climate. Weather systems aligned in March in a way that changed normal circulation patterns and brought more warm air than usual to the continental U.S.”
In fact, the warmest spot on the globe in March (compared to seasonal norms) was northeastern Iowa, where temperatures for the month averaged 6.20 C (about 11.2°
F) warmer than normal. By comparison, the winter (DJF) of 2011-2012 averaged
0.94 C (about 1.7° F) warmer than seasonal norms for the continental U.S.
In recent years March has not typically seen temperature extremes over the U.S. The March 2011 temperature for the “lower 48” was at the seasonal norm. The coolest spot on Earth in March 2012 was northwestern Alaska, where temperatures averaged 3.89 C (7.0° F) colder than normal.
Archived color maps of local temperature anomalies are available on-line at: http://nsstc.uah.edu/climate/
The processed temperature data is available on-line at: vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt
As part of an ongoing joint project between UAHuntsville, NOAA and NASA, John Christy, a professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center
(ESSC) at The University of Alabama in Huntsville, and Dr. Roy Spencer, an ESSC principal scientist, use data gathered by advanced microwave sounding units on NOAA and NASA satellites to get accurate temperature readings for almost all regions of the Earth. This includes remote desert, ocean and rain forest areas where reliable climate data are not otherwise available.
The satellite-based instruments measure the temperature of the atmosphere from the surface up to an altitude of about eight kilometers above sea level. Once the monthly
temperature data is collected and processed, it is placed in a “public” computer file for immediate access by atmospheric scientists in the U.S. and abroad.
Neither Christy nor Spencer receives any research support or funding from oil, coal or industrial companies or organizations, or from any private or special interest groups. All of their climate research funding comes from federal and state grants or contracts.
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Well, the warming trend holds on. Would I be a Wall Street broker, I´d say, the temperature bounced off the lower boundary of the up-trend channel.
Strong buy.
So,I go to Dr. Spencer’s web site and find that you scoped him. Well done. Poor guy must have fallen asleep at the switch.
Sitting in my office in Sheffield, England, watching a blizzard cover the grass that I cut on Sunday whilst wearing shorts and a tee shirt. That’s weather for you ;>))
Just highlights a difference, WUWT can give a headline saying the Global temps are up, never seen Realclimate having a headline of say 15 Years of no Temp increase.
Who would you rather believe.
I posted the preliminary sea surface temperature anomalies for March last Monday:
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2012/03/28/very-preliminary-march-2012-sst-anomaly-update/
I should be posting the full update next Monday, the 9th.
That is a big jump in one month.
The assertion that the trend since 1978 is 0.13C per decade is misleading, since at least with respect to this data set, the trend was virtually falt between 1978 and ~1997 and again essentially flat from ~1999 to 2011 with a step change around the super El Nino of 1998.
I wish that people would not seek to place a linear trend through data which does not suggest a linear response.
A pity the satellite record doesn’t go back through the period of US warmth in the 1930s.
That would make quite a difference to the weight given to the significance of recent warmth.
The climate system is only just on the turn. It takes time to get through a peak or a trough.
Here in Virginia, the whole winter was mild, which enabled me to work outside much more than usual. Two years ago snow covered the ground from mid-December to early March, and even after that it was chilly. Last year was dryer but still chilly. I really enjoyed this winter. March was warm here, though with only one high-temperature record that I recall. For me, the warm winter and spring was a godsend; I loved it. Now in April we seem to be cooling down a bit.
Chris Mortimer says:
April 4, 2012 at 12:39 am
Yet another weather pattern so abley predicted by the Wet Office – not! Keep warm, fella! Remember, this isn’t climate, just weather. We had climate warming/disaster/disruption/catastrophe last week when the climate was gorgeous, clear blue skies, sunshine, hot, definitely climate. Today, in Devon, we have weather, it’s cold, dull & overcast! 🙂
On the map here they have the east coast of New Zealand in yellow when even Niwa say it was well below avg temps there.
National Climate Summary – March 2012: Continuing cool
Temperatures: Well below average for the south and east of the South Island, also Wellington, Wairarapa, southern Hawkes Bay, Central Plateau. Below average elsewhere, except for near average temperatures in Westland and Fiordland.
Rainfall: Double March normal for Northland, north Auckland, Gisborne, southern Hawkes Bay and Wairarapa. Wet for most other regions of the North Island, also Kaikoura, north Canterbury and Otago. In contrast, rather dry for West Coast, Fiordland, Nelson City, Christchurch, south Canterbury, between Wanganui and Palmerston North, and around Taupo.
Soil moisture levels: Well above normal for much of the North Island and Otago, but closer to normal elsewhere. Drier than usual Wanganui to Palmerston North.
Sunshine: Very cloudy over the north and east of North Island, as well as Nelson/Marlborough. Extremely sunny for Otago and Southland.
Mean temperatures for March were well below average (more than 1.2°C below average) for much of the south and east of the South Island, as well as Wellington, the Wairarapa, southern Hawkes Bay, and the Central Plateau. Elsewhere, March temperatures were generally below average (between 0.5°C and 1.2°C below average), with the exceptions of Westland and Fiordland, where near average temperatures were experienced (within 0.5°C of average). The nation-wide average temperature in March was 14.6°C (1.2°C below the 1971–2000 March average), using NIWA’s seven-station temperature series which begins in 1909.
http://www.niwa.co.nz/climate-summary-for-march-2012
A 30 year average is frankly an irrelevant metric. As are most averages.
alex says:
April 4, 2012 at 12:34 am
“Well, the warming trend holds on. Would I be a Wall Street broker, I´d say, the temperature bounced off the lower boundary of the up-trend channel.
Strong buy.”
That’s why you and the other warmists will lose their shirts.
Well, the warming trend holds on. Would I be a Wall Street broker, I´d say, the temperature bounced off the lower boundary of the up-trend channel.
And like most Wall Street brokers you would be reading patterns into effectively random movements.
There may be a long term trend, but “bounced off the lower boundary of the up-trend channel” is flannel for “I’m making up a story from little information”.
@alex & DirkH:
Well, for the last several years I have paid my bill by trading stocks (and bonds and ETFs).
When I look at that chart I think “negative indicator”. It looks like an inverse of the PDO phase and the opposite of west coast temperatures. We had warming until about 1998 (where we had a warm spike AND this graph has an up spike; interesting that) but it’s been cooling since (and so far the last two years have been quite cool / cold; even now with the East Coast being warmed by tropical air sucked north (to dump it’s heat to the sky) the West Coast has been under snow, rain, and cold in the counterflow southward.
Furthermore, even if the ‘bet’ were on this graph directly, the end shows ‘lower highs and lower lows’ so the recent bump up is weakend and trending to flat / down. No Way I’d “go long” that chart. Better bet is to ‘swing trade’ the ripples. Short at the 0.3 point, cover at zero. IFF it goes negative (i.e. prior long wave cycle returns) go long at -0.3, cover at zero. Trend trading an oscillating flat line with two frequencies in it will get you flat broke pronto.
This is a flat trend with a long period cycle about 60 years (though longer graph needed to be sure and see a whole cycle) and a short period about 5 years (but with -/+ a year or two) superimposed on it. Trade the ripple against the zero line and be ready to swap sides when the longer term infection happens.
I’d that the other side of Alex’s market bets any time.
No error or uncertainty quoted. So we don’t know anything really.
RE
alex says:
April 4, 2012 at 12:34 am
“Well, the warming trend holds on. Would I be a Wall Street broker, I´d say, the temperature bounced off the lower boundary of the up-trend channel.
Strong buy.”
———————-
Fitting channels to stock price data (or any other types of non-linear data for that matter eg. planetary temperature data) works just fine – right up until it doesn’t work. In the stock market you might get away with your shirt if you’re stop loss is taken-out successfully. Most people though hang on and hope that the break through the lower channel boundary was a temporary overshoot… and that’s just one of the reason why most people lose money on stocks… best not bet the house on it alex… as someone above implied: linear statistics are very poor at picking turning points…
For comparison see NASA temperature map for March 1939, here:
http://www.seaclimate.com/c/c1/images/rand/rb/Jan_Jul39/9m3.gif ,
which is still representative for the warm period in the 1930s. That changed to colder conditions very suddenly only few months later; see March 1940:
http://www.seaclimate.com/_ToC/ice-nasa-trend/nasa_imag/0m3.gif
All months between January 1939 and May 1940, see particularly Jan40 and Feb40, here: http://www.seaclimate.com/c/c1/c1.html
It’s been above average here in GA for nearly a year. Last summer was hot, winter was warm and of course March was well above average.
March 2012 was the warmest month on record in the 48 contiguous U.S. states
Should that read “the warmest March on record” ?
We can all see where the most hot air is!
@- richard verney says: April 4, 2012 at 1:44 am
“I wish that people would not seek to place a linear trend through data which does not suggest a linear response.”
While the data may not suggest a linear trend, the overall rise in temperature requires an addition of extra energy to the climate system.
The only known source of additional energy does follow a linear trend.
The discrepency is usually explained as the interannual varations (mainly ENSO) swamping the small linear trend.
Just as the daily variations have swamped the small rising temperature trend towards Summer in the N Hemisphere from the smooth rise in solar input so that in the UK LAST week was much warmer than this/next week.
So much for the ‘seasonal’ theory of increased solar input warming the hemisphere! -grin-
Very deep low pressure system gave very stormy weather over Japan last night.
High winds and snow today. Cherry blossom is late here this year as well.
Could someone please pass some of that heat over to Japan?
Please?!
@- JohnH says: April 4, 2012 at 1:20 am
“Just highlights a difference, WUWT can give a headline saying the Global temps are up, never seen Realclimate having a headline of say 15 Years of no Temp increase.”
That is probably because it would be inaccurate. Whatever temperature metric you use, GISS, UAH, HADCRU, BEST, there is definately a statistically significant temperature increase over the last 15 years.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/wti/from:1996/to:2011/trend
@-“Who would you rather believe.”
But its not a question of a prefered belief, its a matter of objective data.
“Temperatures over the U.S. averaged 2.82 C (almost 5.1° Fahrenheit) warmer than normal in March.”
Since when has average been the same thing as normal?!
If the temperature was, by chance, the same as the 30 year mean for March I that would be an improbably coincidence, not “normal”.
In a something as chaotic as whether deviation from the mean is NORMAL , not the opposite.
😉
I’m not ure what other posters are lookinga at but the graph above clearly shows a continuing warming trend. Fluctuations in the graph are the result of ENSO events, i.e. La Nina (cooling) and El Nino (warming). For the past several months La Nina (cooling phase) has been dominant. This has resulted in a negative (blue) anomalies in Jan & Feb earlier this year. But if you compare these anomalies with those during other La Nina periods such as in the mid-1980s there is a big difference. It’s clear that each La Nina period is warmer than the previous one. The same is true for El Nino periods – the one exception being the paricularly intense 1997/98 El Nino.
While ENSO muddies the waters a bit, there is undoubtedly a significant underlying warming trend. Whether this warming is a cause for concern or even whether it is related to ghg increases is a separate argument.