From the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science , an interesting groundbreaking paper, ahem…but, wait for it, we’ll soon hear “Climate disruption causes more hurricanes and those cause more earthquakes” from the Rommists and McKibbenites.
Research study shows link between earthquakes and tropical cyclones
New study may help scientists identify regions at high risk for earthquakes
SAN FRANCISCO – Dec. 8, 2011 – A groundbreaking study led by University of Miami (UM) scientist Shimon Wdowinski shows that earthquakes, including the recent 2010 temblors in Haiti and Taiwan, may be triggered by tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons). Wdowinski will discuss his findings during a presentation at the 2011 AGU Fall Meeting in San Francisco.
“Very wet rain events are the trigger,” said Wdowinski, associate research professor of marine geology and geophysics at the UM Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. “The heavy rain induces thousands of landslides and severe erosion, which removes ground material from the Earth’s surface, releasing the stress load and encouraging movement along faults.”
Wdowinski and a colleague from Florida International University analyzed data from quakes magnitude-6 and above in Taiwan and Haiti and found a strong temporal relationship between the two natural hazards, where large earthquakes occurred within four years after a very wet tropical cyclone season.
During the last 50 years three very wet tropical cyclone events – Typhoons Morakot, Herb and Flossie – were followed within four years by major earthquakes in Taiwan’s mountainous regions. The 2009 Morakot typhoon was followed by a M-6.2 in 2009 and M-6.4 in 2010. The 1996 Typhoon Herb was followed by M-6.2 in 1998 and M-7.6 in 1999 and the 1969 Typhoon Flossie was followed by a M-6.2 in 1972.
The 2010 M-7 earthquake in Haiti occurred in the mountainous region one-and-a-half years after two hurricanes and two tropical storms drenched the island nation within 25 days.
The researchers suggest that rain-induced landslides and excess rain carries eroded material downstream. As a result the surface load above the fault is lessened.
“The reduced load unclamp the faults, which can promote an earthquake,” said Wdowinski.
Fractures in Earth’s bedrock from the movement of tectonic plates, known as faults, build up stress as they attempt to slide past each other, periodically releasing the stress in the form of an earthquake.
According to the scientists, this earthquake-triggering mechanism is only viable on inclined faults, where the rupture by these faults has a significant vertical movement.
Wdowinski also shows a trend in the tropical cyclone-earthquake pattern exists in M-5 and above earthquakes. The researchers plan to analyze patterns in other seismically active mountainous regions – such as the Philippines and Japan – that are subjected to tropical cyclones activity.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
O/T Anthony, did you see the report of a huge storm in Scotland, and how it knocked out a wind turbine. It blew up and caught on fire.
REPLY: Yes, always check the front page of WUWT – Anthony
Maybe its just me, but it seems round here that most of the rain is “very wet rain”
Sorry, I just don’t buy it. I don’t believe the “surface load” of even a couple of hundred feet of soil has any relative impact so several miles of rock. What I might find more believable is the percolation of water into fault acting as a lubricant. But that only works in areas that are normally arid.
The Haiti quake occurred at a depth of 8.1 miles. I don’t see how the movement of a few meters of dirt on the surface is going to be enough to unload miles of rock. That is just nonsense. To believe this would be to believe that you can prevent the San Andreas from slipping by stapling it with a piece of highway guadrail or something.
How much did that “surface load” lessen compared to 8.1 miles of solid rock? The answer is, comparatively speaking, just about zero.
Nonsense.
BS
Yea right, and when the load is lifted from coastal regions by movement of tides, a vast weight is lifted off the ocean floor, which diminishes the seismic connectivity between earths different layered substructures, which allows the seismic plates to release pent up pressure by earthquake. Then if you look down into any fissure cause by the sliding of plates you will be lucky enough to see Alice in Wonderland.
The theory seems laughable. Even the shallower earthquakes generally take place kilometres underground. Given the immensity of the forces involved, even removing whole mountainsides is a trivial extra factor.
And looking for statistical with four-years of a strong cyclone season: with a wide enough window, comparing two sets of events which are both fairly common it would be surprising is one couldn’t find some data to fit whatever theory one was proposing.
The majority of subduction zones being in the tropics wouldn’t be a biasing factor would it?
I don’t have the statistical horsepower to say other wise…. but at least they proposed a mechanism to support their view.
Hmmmm….No one reported the early 60’s heavy tropical cyclone period in Anchorage…….
Funny. “A groundbreaking study” about earthquakes.
At first read this seems a real stretch. Really real stretch. If anything I might GUESS that the same factor(s) that may be contributing to these big storms (the solar and lunar influences that Piers Corbyn looks at) are influencing both them and this earthquake activity. And he is now delving into earthquake prediction on that basis.
Just watched this, and learned about his earthquake work, yesterday:
“MUST SEE YOUTUBE: Piers Corbyn Review of November and updated December forecast, with comments on the IPCC Durban meeting.”
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=8767&linkbox=true&position=1
I have no idea how close he is getting to any new ‘truths’ about all this. But I do know, after also watching Mann’s TED video, that I would trust humble Corbyn to look for them while I wouldn’t trust that slippery charlatan Mann with looking for my dog.
In any case, to try to use the impeccable logic of the AGW Team, it obviously couldn’t be the rain because it is sunny in that photo.
Complete and utter nonsense.
Groundbreaking?? No pun intended?? They’ve got to be kidding. The mass and energy budgets are so imbalanced as to be ludicrous. Lake Mead was shown to have caused tiny earthquakes by nature of its tiny isostatic signature and the seepage lubrication of weaknesses, but a 5.0-plus temblor is going to happen, typhoon or hurricane be damned.
That this even got covered by a press release is an example of just how uncritical both the media and peer review have become. This is madness.
Rain causes plate shifts…… someone lock him up…… knowing the morons I’ve discussed climate with…. this lunatic is dangerous. Anyone believing this crap needs locked up. This is the same garbage that made people believe using fuel would hot the world up. These people will never stop with there insanity and misanthropy.
their…
Rather than the restribution of weight causing earthquakes, I thought that whenever rain increased the amoung of subterranean water, it could “grease” the fault lines so that they would more easily slip past one another causing an earthquake, albeit of less magnitude than if the stress had continued to build up more.
There are sure one hell of a lot of tropical cyclones in Christchurch. So that’s what caused the quakes there.
Wait till the NZ media pick this one up.
I have not found a peer-reviewed paper that presents this research. While tropical cyclones are important heavy rainmakers, the precipitation distribution associated with them is not necessarily a function of intensity. Indeed, the worst rainmakers and flooding storms are just that, weak, meandering tropical storm strength systems that lack organization and move very slowly. A compact well-organized major hurricane or typhoon may track over a tropical island much faster.
Haiti and Taiwan are tropical locations with copious annual rainfall totals without the effects of tropical cyclones. I would suspect that in many years without a cyclone impact, huge rainfall totals are still found. Therefore, unless the authors show a relationship between overall heavy-rain events BESIDES tropical cyclones, then the correlation is just that — something that looks connected in theory, but is likely just a coincidence.
If anyone has a peer-reviewed sample of this presentation, that would go a long way to answering some overall concerns.
Within 4 years an earthquake occured? Really?
And why wasn’t there an earthquake withing 3 years or 2 weeks, or 1 month?
Scientists leaping to delusions again methinks.
Volcanoes though? They can cool the climate and attract lightening. But earthquakes, they are trying to justify their grant money. Watalaff!
Oh, sure. And the average recurrence of wetter than average storm seasons is also every four years or so. Right? I bet we could find out a lot more in the Myanmar Academy of Science Letters, except those papers are all state secrets. Maybe Al Gore has access.
;->
I have not seen their data or read the paper. We know how foolish most press releases are. It does sound like a case of correlation being equated to causation. I think they are perhaps, “drinking a bit to much of their own wine,” here.
Absurd.
I enjoy reading speculative science but I think this goes a bit too far. The mechanism is implausible and the statistical correlation too sparse.
Try again.
Maybe trying to create a cover for HAARP? (sarc)
noaaprogrammer says:
December 8, 2011 at 9:51 pm
I agree. Way back in the 60’s when I studied Geology at Uni, it was a well documented relationship between water “lubrication” of faults – indeed I seem to recollect some work being done in California to inject high-pressure water to help faults unclamp and release energy in smaller doses rather than allow it to build up for “the big one”. Don’t know what became o fthat
“Groundbreaking” – I think not
Andy
I do not know if the statistics are right, maybe there are enough storms and earthquakes to find a relation in any cases. But the effects and modification of stress in the earth crust are real and measurable. For instance it has been demonstrated in the Himalayas that the background microseismicity is increasing during the summer monsoon and the cause being the additonnal water load in ground and rivers. Remember also that the Wenquan 2008 earthquake in China may have been triggered by the filling of a dam in the epicentral area (it is still seriously discussed), its maybe only a “trigger” in the sense that the event would have happenned anyway but the change in waterload may have put locally the stress over a tipping point.
Looks like Mannian theorm to me.