From the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science
University of Miami study rethinks the ocean’s role in Pacific climate
The new study can aid scientists in better understanding regional and global effects of climate change in the Pacific
MIAMI – November 15, 2011 – University of Miami (UM) Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science researchers have climate scientists rethinking a commonly held theory about the ocean’s role in the global climate system. The new findings can aid scientists in better understanding and predicting changes in the Pacific climate and its impacts around the globe.
According to the study’s lead author, UM Rosenstiel School Professor Amy Clement, the tropical atmospheric pressure system know as the Southern Oscillation (a periodic fluctuation of atmospheric pressure commonly observed as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which brings unusually warm water across the Pacific Ocean basin) plays a bigger, more fundamental role in the climate system than just being El Niño’s atmospheric counterpart.
Scientists have long believed that the Southern Oscillation exists due to its connection to the ocean. “This study changes the textbook version of one of the most fundamental aspects of atmospheric circulation,” said Clement, whose study was published in the August 2011 issue of American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate.
In two sets of experiments, Clement, recent UM alumnus Pedro DiNezio, and co-author Clara Deser from the National Center for Atmospheric Research modeled two climate scenarios – one with a static, current-free ocean and another with a fully dynamic ocean. The team showed that atmospheric pressure, surface temperature, and precipitation were the same in both ocean scenarios, which reveals that the Southern Oscillations global signature is still present even when the ocean and atmosphere are disconnected.
In a news item in the Sept. 29 issue of the journal Nature, Research Institute for Global Change scientists Jing-Jia Luo said, “…Clement et al. argue impressively that it is not necessary to couple ocean dynamics to the atmosphere in models to reproduce tropi¬cal climate modes and their associated global connections.”
British physicist Sir Gilbert Walker discovered the Southern Oscillation in the early 20th century when trying to understand and predict India’s monsoons, which caused torrential rains and widespread famine in the region. He proved that this large-scale sea-level pressure in the tropics connected India’s weather with other weather patterns across the world.
“This new development can help link climate patterns between distant region, such as rainfall patterns in Australia and drought in the Southwestern U.S.,” said Clement.
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“In two sets of experiments, Clement, recent UM alumnus Pedro DiNezio, and co-author Clara Deser from the National Center for Atmospheric Research modeled two climate scenarios…”
Is it really called an experiment when you use models to get the results? I’m not a scientist, so this is an open question (not rhetorical). I would probably call it something more like two sets of model projections or something.
They don’t say? Pity it’s yet another model though!
Extraordinary news!!
But-but–the science is settled it’s all due to CO2!
Well, it’s not like water has a high specific heat or anything.
Off Topic
BBC World News has been found taking money from environmental pressure groups to sponsor News articles which presents the pressure group or their cause in a good light.
Links:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-15739468
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/tv-radio/special-investigation-tv-company-takes-millions-from-malaysian-government-to-make-documentaries-for-bbc-about-malaysia-2338813.html
“The team showed that atmospheric pressure, surface temperature, and precipitation were the same in both ocean scenarios, which reveals that the Southern Oscillations global signature is still present even when the ocean and atmosphere are disconnected.”
Does “disconnected” mean that the sea surface temperature in their model doesn’t influence the atmosphere above it?
No physical mechanism is given that could explain this, it’s only that the numbers match (to what degree?).
Possible explanation: They accidentally copied model run #1 output to the directory with model run #2 output, overwriting model run #2 output without noticing.
Expect retraction in 3… 2… 1…
“The team showed that atmospheric pressure, surface temperature, and precipitation were the same in both ocean scenarios, which reveals that the Southern Oscillations global signature is still present even when the ocean and atmosphere are disconnected.”
Oh brother! They use two model runs to “prove” that ENSO happens despite that huge churning heat exchanger (Covering 75+ % of the planet) that “has no influence” (according to the model). I’d be checking the model more thoroughly, kids. And furthermore, I ask the same question as James H. above. Experiment? I’d be surprised by that result enough to discount it, not publish it!
A tangent – the data source for the WUWT ENSO meter on the right has missed two weekly updates in a row. Last night I sent Email to a possible maintainer and to someone else who uses that data. I was unable to find a replacement data source. Hints are welcome, otherwise I’ll start talking to researchers or fall back to a monthly source.
The BEST team give precedence to the AMO over ENSO.
As it happens I did some research into de-mystifying the AMO.
Put in the most simplistic terms: the AMO is a delayed response (with R^2 = 0.74 ) to the semi-permanent low atmospheric pressure system over Iceland (measured at Reykjavik / Stykkisholmur) as graphically shown here:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/theAMO.htm
including the link to the relevant pre-print paper (currently in ‘document technical validation’ at the CCSd / HAL science archive, any constructive comments will be considered for the final paper version.)
….and African dust, plankton blooms, and on and on
Too much to model…………….
In my view modeling is analysis, certainly not experiment.
Tail wags dog.
“…Clement et al. argue impressively that it is not necessary to couple ocean dynamics to the atmosphere in models to reproduce tropical climate modes and their associated global connections.”
Sure… and my stereo amp works just fine with the filter caps disconnected in the power supply.
Granted, I have only limited modeling experience with complex systems, but one think it didn’t take me long to realize is that you can not model a system you do not thoroughly understand. The only thing a computer buys you is multiple iterations. Sure, you can run a set of calculations thousands, or even millions of times in a few minutes where it might take you several lifetimes to do the same by hand with a pencil. But, computers are still nothing but big fast adding machines. Oh, I forgot, nobody knows how to add of subtract using a pencil anymore… just punch buttons on a keypad and the answer magically appears.
“According to the study’s lead author, UM Rosenstiel School Professor Amy Clement, the tropical atmospheric pressure system know as the Southern Oscillation (a periodic fluctuation of atmospheric pressure commonly observed as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which brings unusually warm water across the Pacific Ocean basin) plays a bigger, more fundamental role in the climate system than just being El Niño’s atmospheric counterpart”.
Where does this warm water come from in the first place?.
“the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which brings unusually warm water across the Pacific Ocean basin”.
So this “unusually warm water” is always some where in the Pacific Ocean?.
So if the warm water is in the East Pacific it warm us up.
And when in the west Pacific it cools us down?.
Here’s a quote from Wikipedia:
If the physics is well understood, a computer model can be more informative than trying an experiment on a physical system. If nothing else, it’s faster to change parameters in a computer model than it is to re-machine a part or build a new printed circuit board. Of course you want to confirm your results on the real thing.
The trouble with the atmosphere and ocean is that those systems are not adequately understood to model for many purposes. So, we can model storm surges in a fjord and ask the question: What would happen if we dredge this channel? We would have a reasonable expectation that the model’s answer would be useful. On the other hand, we could ask the question: What will the climate be in ten years? A dart throwing chimpanzee would probably do just as well as our computer model at answering that.
Both models can be looked on as experiments. The results of one are reliable and the results of the other; not so much. Even though an experiment produces junk results, it’s still an experiment. 😉
Al Gore remains clueless.
I think all the climatologists should be flown to Durban in a brand new aircraft that has never flown before but which aerodynamic models show is perfectly safe and has engine models show that the range to get them to Durban. After all they have a total trust in model output. /sarc
I fully realize this is about ocean temperature but I’ve lost patience. Excuse me for that. Something is driving MY weather, or climate as AGW fanatics like to call it when we get a few hot days – here’s my temperatures for this week to Saturday here in Fort McMurray, Alberta. All night time temperature – Wed -16C. Thu -20C. Fri -21C. Sat -25C. All daytimes well below zero.
The fact is everything about Earth’s weather or climate is studied piece meal – or some sort of zombie reconstruction by AGW hired guns to find Global Warming whether or not its exists. But I want to know – and if anyone here can answer me then this is the time – between Canada and Russia, the two largest land masses on planet earth with land and sea claims virtually to the north pole, why are WE so poorly represented on world wide temperatures scales to the exact same extent as small pacific islands and other assorted southern zones that can fit into Canada’s or Russia’s North and still get lost in the tundra when global warming is supposed to be a global temperatures with ALL points being equally represented. Moreover, why aren’t the earth’s mountains represented which again comes back to ALL of Canada’s and Russia’s mountain ranges? From the bottom to the top? We too cold for being included? We are part of the earth, are we not? What about the Antarctic – why isn’t it represented to the exact same degree as Europe?
Why isn’t anyone demanding a real earth temperature?
This is very interesting, I hope it leads scientist to find an efficient and reliable way to predict monsoons and other natural disasters that are related to climate. Many lives could be saved!
Ian W says:
November 15, 2011 at 9:44 am
I think all the climatologists should be flown to Durban in a brand new aircraft that has never flown before but which aerodynamic models show is perfectly safe and has engine models show that the range to get them to Durban. After all they have a total trust in model output. /sarc
___________________________
You forgot one.
The plane will be flown by a computer using a pilot simulation model.
Sorry guys, but after going to Wikipedia, our 1-Stop Science Shop, I found the definitive answer.
(your calculations may vary)
Total ocean water mass is 1.4×10 to the 21 kg
Total atmospheric mass is 5×10 to the 18 kg
Total atmospheric CO2 mass is 3.16×10 to the 15 kg
Total anthropogenic CO2 mass is 2.7×10 to the 13 kg
Utilizing techniques I learned from An Inconvenient Truth, I subtracted 13 from 21 to get 8, which is how much more powerful CO2 is than earth’s total ocean’s mass is at governing climate.
We know this to be true for several reasons. First, we can ignore any unknown heat input to the oceans from inside the earth. Second, the anthropogenic caused heat input from the last 50 to 100 years overrides the dynamic heat content and transfer of the oceans already in motion. Third, it sounds good when you say that anthropogenic CO2 drives climate change.
A similarly qualified treatise on dinosaurs will follow as soon as I finish watching the Land Before Time.
“The science is settled.” –Robert Watson, 1997
Ian W says
At t9:44 Nov14
I was a commerical pilot and would not fly your model a/c, even with an ejection seat.Ha!
This is a little strange.
There is still a southern oscillation (cycle that is) even when a static ocean is used. The conclusion would then be that the independently active southern oscillation is the driver of the ENSO’s weather/climate impacts. There must also be other independent oscillations as well then (in the tropics and potentially other places).
Either that or there is some bug/unphysical tuning in the climate model.