Dr. Jeff Masters gets caught up in the full on media stupidity

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45229295/ns/us_news-christian_science_monitor/t/warming-temps-eyed-factor-alaska-storm/

click for the original story

The major winter storm in Alaska mentioned overnight on WUWT, while weaker than the previous record storm 1974, gets pegged as being “aided and abetted by global warming”:

While the storm is weaker than the ’74 event, it appears to fit into a long-term pattern with a global-warming connection.

Dr. Masters notes that several studies over the past several years have documented an increase in the number of these intense wintry storms in the northern hemisphere over the past century, with a marked upward swing beginning in the mid-1960s, as the global climate has warmed.

With this sort of “journalism” it will soon come to pass that any significant weather event, anytime, will be connected to global warming climate change climate disruption. Sheesh, the stupid, it burns.

And where’s the proof? There is none, it is pure speculation, and not even good speculation at that.And as we see time and time again, when somebody speculates on these events, the analysis shows otherwise.

  • Tornadoes linked to global warming-  FALSE
  • Hurricanes linked to global warming-  FALSE
  • Flooding linked to global warming-  FALSE
  • Increased deaths due to storminess in the era of global warming- FALSE

I’ve said it before, and it bears repeating: how do we know the number and intensity measurements of storms aren’t due to reporting bias? 100 years ago, if when such a storm rolled in, did we have satellites, weather networks, and insta-launch web opinion to tell us it was connected to warming coming out of the little ice age? No. Were we even aware of such storms? Maybe – weeks or months later, if they got reported at all.

And what about this statement?

Dr. Masters notes that several studies over the past several years have documented an increase in the number of these intense wintry storms in the northern hemisphere over the past century, with a marked upward swing beginning in the mid-1960s, as the global climate has warmed.

What happened in the 1960’s? Weather satellites, and weather monitoring was standardized in Alaska, thanks to it becoming the 49th state in 1959.

And what’s on the NWS page for Alaska today? Nothing about it being related to global warming, nor “worst ever” nor “epic”, like we see in the media today. For the NWS in Alaska, it seems to be just another big winter storm.

This bears repeating: Why it seems that severe weather is “getting worse” when the data shows otherwise – a historical perspective

Tell writer Pete Spotts what you think of this here

h/t to WUWT reader A. Scott

UPDATE: 11/09/2011 7PM PST

Commenter Phillip Bradley writes:

…while midlatitude cyclone activity generally decreased from 1960 to the early 1990s, in agreement with previous studies. New findings include the following. 1) The number and intensity of cyclones entering the Arctic from the midlatitudes has increased, suggesting a shift of storm tracks into the Arctic, particularly in summer. 2) Positive tendencies of midlatitude cyclone activity before and after the 1960–93 period of decreasing activity.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017%3C2300%3ACAIVOA%3E2.0.CO%3B2

Masters’ claim of,

…an increase in the number of these intense wintry storms in the northern hemisphere over the past century, with a marked upward swing beginning in the mid-1960s

Looks to be false.

I examined the paper and made this excerpt from Zhang et al 2004:

Doesn’t look like any significant trend to me. They write in the paper:

The trajectory counts of cyclones originating in the two regions also show signatures consistent with the CAI variability in the Arctic region (Fig. 11b). Specifically, there was a generally increasing tendency from 1955 to 1980 and a decreasing tendency after 1980 for both types of cyclones.

UPDATE2: 7:45PM PST – The NWS is now making claims of a Cat3 hurricane equivalent in this KTUU-TV news story:

Really? Where?

One the places cited in many news stories as being a problem spot is Kivalina. There’s not even any Cat1 winds there: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/PAVL.html

And Weather Underground sure doesn’t look all that bad, no hurricane force winds on this map:

The worst I found was Tin City, which briefly had Cat1 level winds:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/PATC.html

UPDATE3: 8:15PM PST – the climb-down, no Cat 3 hurricane here:

Earlier today (see comment from John below for full text)

932 AM AKST TUE NOV 8 2011
…ALASKA WEST COAST TO BE HIT BY ONE OF THE MOST SEVERE BERING
 SEA STORMS ON RECORD…
A POWERFUL AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM OF NEAR RECORD OR
 RECORD MAGNITUDE IS BEARING DOWN ON THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA.

Now…

WWAK82 PAFG 100330 SPSWCZ SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
630 PM AKST WED NOV 9 2011 
...

...STRONG STORM CONTINUES TO BUFFET WESTERN ALASKA...

THE STRONG STORM WHICH HAS BEEN BATTERING WESTERN ALASKA MOVED
NORTH OF THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY AND IS ONLY SLOWLY
WEAKENING. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CURVE NORTHWEST REACHING
WRANGELL ISLAND LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

THE HARD HITTING WEATHER WITH THIS STORM IS FAR FROM OVER AS SEA
LEVELS RISE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER NORTON SOUND...THE BERING
STRAIT...AND THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA COAST FROM POINT HOPE
SOUTH. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.

THE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY HAVE
DIMINISHED TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH...BUT
THIS DIRECTION FAVORS MUCH MORE MOVEMENT OF SEA WATER INTO THE
COASTAL COMMUNITIES RAISING THE WATER LEVEL SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
THE TIDES. 

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS SO FAR:

BUCKLAND........56 MPH AT  316AM WED
CAPE LISBURNE...81 MPH AT  700AM WED
CAPE ROMANZOF...60 MPH AT  300AM WED
DEERING.........61 MPH AT  319AM WED
EMMONAK.........62 MPH AT 1100PM TUE
GAMBELL.........74 MPH AT  600PM TUE
GOLOVIN.........64 MPH AT 1200AM WED
KIANA...........54 MPH AT  715AM WED
KIVALINA........71 MPH AT  323AM WED
KOTZEBUE........74 MPH AT  600AM WED
KOYUK...........41 MPH AT  800AM WED
MARSHALL........64 MPH AT 1100PM TUE
NOATAK..........62 MPH AT 1036AM WED
NOME............61 MPH AT  900PM TUE
NOORVIK.........67 MPH AT  423AM WED
POINT HOPE......78 MPH AT  500AM WED
RED DOG MINE....48 MPH AT  935AM WED
SAINT MARYS.....61 MPH AT  900PM TUE
ST MICHAEL......68 MPH AT 1200AM WED
SAVOONGA........76 MPH AT  700PM TUE
SCAMMON BAY.....72 MPH AT  800PM TUE
SHAKTOOLIK......64 MPH AT  115AM WED
SHISHMAREF......57 MPH AT 1216AM WED
SHUNGNAK........69 MPH AT  900AM WED
TELLER..........71 MPH AT  600AM WED
TIN CITY........85 MPH AT 1200AM WED
UNALAKLEET......66 MPH AT 1200AM WED
WALES...........89 MPH AT  142AM WED
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81 thoughts on “Dr. Jeff Masters gets caught up in the full on media stupidity

  1. When you look at the current hurricanetropical storm season, are we to blame the low number of hurricanes, compared to the high number of tropical storms, on climate change?

  2. It must make Dr. Masters feel better to make such a pronouncement in the face of mounting evidence to the contrary. I can see no other reason…for if it were thought out, such a statement would never be made. “with a marked upward swing beginning in the mid-1960s, as the global climate has warmed.” Or, as the population of hippies increased, or any other sixties-related increase….This is a completely speculative conclusion!

  3. If you’ve looked at the NWS current Alaska weather map with all its reporting stations, the storm did not materialize to the scary level reported yesterday and this morning.
    The wind storm we experienced last week here in the upper Copper River Basin of Alaska made this current storm look and feel like a spring breeze.

    http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/wx/current.html

  4. Looking at SST anomalies, there is a lot of blue around Alaska. Of course, with conducive environments, systems can still pick up plenty of water vapor when the ocean is cooler than normal, but global warming is not contributing to this uptake in water vapor!

  5. “While the storm is weaker than the ’74 event, it appears to fit into a long-term pattern with a global-warming connection.”

    The RSS data for October just came out and the value for October, 2011 was 0.089. Unless I missed it, only one year was colder for October since 1995 and that was in 1999 at 0.077.

    The other article said: “The storm is the product of warm air in the Pacific Ocean tapping into the cold air off Siberia”

    Perhaps if it was not so cold, the “cold air off Siberia” would be warmer and the temperature differential would not have been as great and the storm would not have been as big.

  6. It seems this sort of quackery is surfacing more and more. I think the PR guys have focus grouped this one and figger it’s a winner. Even the supposed weather experts at Environmentalcase Canada see connections between weather and climate. Trolls everywhere are making similar claims. I guess the hive has sent out dispatches to all their drones, commanding them to spread the party line.

  7. This is little more than the “chorus” effect, wherein journalists (I use the term loosely) assert certainty based on the fact that many others have uttered similar stuff.

    Doesn’t make it any more true – never has – never will.

    Actual data and credible proxies (like fossil forests exposed beneath receding glaciers) show that past times were far warmer than today and somehow >>99% of everything survived.

    Storms have always been storms – local, intense, and spatially sporadic. No Big Deal.

  8. What do you do? How do you deal with so many people who see the world not as it is, not even with the rosy glow of optimism, but rather through the brown smear of pessimistic spectacles?

  9. Well of course the Climate Alarmists are crying over this storm… the need SOMETHING to point to. This year’s Hurricane season certainly didn’t live up to their hype.

  10. I hope they keep it up and get louder and louder.

    When you keep consuming after the “receptor” has passed its point of tolerance and adaptation, the consumed substance gets more and more unpleasant and unwanted.

    Works with everything. Alcohol, tobacco, cocaine, marijuana, sex, porn, apocalyptic cults.

  11. Hmm, 1974.

    Cyclone Tracy destroyed Darwin (and I mean destroyed, none of this Irene wussiness)
    A monster la Nina flooded Brisbane…repeated this year in the terrible Qld floods (now how on Earth could that possibly have happened?)
    I didn’t have to go to school for a whole week as floods made the road impassable (yay!)
    We had about a zillion newspaper articles on the danger of a new ice age starting next week.

    Obviously global warming.

  12. “While the storm is weaker than the ’74 event”

    Weaker = Global Warming?

    Does that mean if it was stronger it would NOT be evidence of … ha ha ha. Who am I kidding?Everything is evidence of global warming.

  13. Thankfully as we enter our third colder winter in a row most people have learned to just ignore this type of hype. I expect that must be frightening to the true believers.

  14. while midlatitude cyclone activity generally decreased from 1960 to the early 1990s, in agreement with previous studies. New findings include the following. 1) The number and intensity of cyclones entering the Arctic from the midlatitudes has increased, suggesting a shift of storm tracks into the Arctic, particularly in summer. 2) Positive tendencies of midlatitude cyclone activity before and after the 1960–93 period of decreasing activity.

    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017%3C2300%3ACAIVOA%3E2.0.CO%3B2

    Masters’ claim of,

    an increase in the number of these intense wintry storms in the northern hemisphere over the past century, with a marked upward swing beginning in the mid-1960s

    Looks to be false.

  15. The storm is the product of warm air in the Pacific Ocean tapping into the cold air off Siberia,
    =====================================
    The air coming off Siberia is colder than normal……………

    but then Dr Masters is right……global warming causes more cold and snow……./snark

    …what an indoctrinated brain washed moron

  16. @Schitzree Now don’t go jinxing this perfectly good Hurricane season we’ve been having. It still goes to 1 Dec, we’ve got three weeks to get through! I like my Hurricane season very tropical stormish: it brings rain without the wind and storm surge damage.

  17. You wrote –

    And what’s on the NWS page for Alaska today? Nothing about it being related to global warming, nor “worst ever” nor “epic”, like we see in the media today. For the NWS in Alaska, it seems to be just another big winter storm.

    They actually wrote this prior to the storm:

    932 AM AKST TUE NOV 8 2011

    …ALASKA WEST COAST TO BE HIT BY ONE OF THE MOST SEVERE BERING
    SEA STORMS ON RECORD…

    A POWERFUL AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM OF NEAR RECORD OR
    RECORD MAGNITUDE IS BEARING DOWN ON THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA.
    AT 9 AM THIS MORNING THE STORM CENTER WAS LOCATED ABOUT 600
    MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. THE STORM IS FORECAST
    TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER
    MOVING ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY
    THE STORM WILL TAKE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA.

    THE STORM WILL BRING EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS TO ALL OF THE
    ALASKA WEST COAST BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON OVER ST LAWRENCE
    ISLAND AND BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER THE REMAINDER OF
    THE WEST COAST…ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD MAJOR COASTAL
    FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH EROSION OVER MANY PARTS OF THE
    COASTLINE. THE WIND WILL PUSH LARGE AMOUNTS OF WATER INTO NORTON
    SOUND…RAISING SEA LEVELS TO 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN NORTON
    SOUND AND ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST. THE EXTREMELY STRONG
    WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGH WAVES WHICH WILL PUSH THE HIGH WATER
    FARTHER INLAND.

    OVER THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND…
    SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 75 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
    GUSTS OF 90 TO 100 MPH. ALONG THE CHUKCHI COAST…WIND
    SPEEDS OF 65 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 90 MPH ARE
    EXPECTED. IN THE NOME AREA…SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS
    60 MPH ARE EXPECTED…WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH. ALMOST ALL OTHER
    AREAS OF THE WEST COAST WILL EXPERIENCE MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS
    OF AT LEAST 50 TO 60 MPH.

    WIDESPREAD MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH
    EROSION IS EXPECTED IN THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

    1. THE BERING SEA COAST FROM CAPE ROMANZOF TO POINT
    ROMANOF…ESPECIALLY THE WEST FACING SHORES.
    2. ALL AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SHORE OF NORTON
    SOUND WESTWARD TO AND INCLUDING THE BERING STRAIT COAST
    AND LITTLE DIOMEDE ISLAND.
    3. SOUTH AND WEST FACING COASTLINE OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.
    4. THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST FROM CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO POINT HOPE.

    THIS INCLUDES THE VILLAGES OF NOME AND KIVALINA WHERE
    MAJOR DAMAGE FROM COASTAL FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS
    IS EXPECTED. THE VILLAGE OF SAVOONGA ON THE NORTH SHORE
    OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL BE PROTECTED FROM COASTAL
    FLOODING BUT WILL EXPERIENCE EXTREMELY STRONG AND
    DAMAGING WINDS.

    ADDITIONALLY…HIGH SEA LEVELS IN NORTON SOUND WILL CAUSE
    COASTAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE.

    THE STORM WILL PRODUCE BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
    OVER MOST AREAS OF THE WESTERN ALASKA MAINLAND…WITH VISIBILITY
    REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PEOPLE ARE URGED
    TO SEEK SHELTER NOW AND POSTPONE TRAVEL INTO THE BACK COUNTRY
    UNTIL THE STORM ABATES.

    ALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD SEEK SAFETY IN PORT IMMEDIATELY
    IF THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO. IN AREAS WHERE BEACH
    EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED…SMALL BOATS
    AND PERSONAL PROPERTY SHOULD BE MOVED WELL AWAY FROM THE
    SHORE AND TO HIGHER GROUND.

    AGAIN…THIS WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
    STORM OF AN EPIC MAGNITUDE RARELY EXPERIENCED. ALL PEOPLE
    IN THE AREA SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO SAFEGUARD THEIR LIVES
    AND PROPERTY.
    =====================================================================
    REPLY: Thanks, I can’t find that now. Do you have a URL? Note the wind speeds in the updates – Anthony

  18. O/T but weather-related:
    the UK govt’s CAGW policies cause energy bills to skyrocket, and then…..

    10 Nov: UK Daily Mail: Give your winter fuel handouts to the poor, wealthy pensioners are told
    2,700 older Britons die each winter because they cannot afford to heat their homes
    Despite sky-high energy prices, the Government has cut winter fuel payments this year from £400 to £300 for the over-80s, and £250 to £200 for all other pensioners…
    Lib Dem MP Tessa Munt called on David Cameron during Prime Minister’s Questions yesterday to support efforts to make it easier for people to donate by including information on the appeal in letters sent out to advise of payments. Mr Cameron agreed to look at the idea, but warned: ‘I would not want to see any pressure put on people to do something that might not be in their best interests.’ …

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2059665/Give-winter-fuel-handouts-poor-wealthy-pensioners-told.html

  19. This is yet another reason why I DON’T use the Weather Underground. “Wunderground” went down hill anyway with their “new” format, and one of the worst radar presentations anywhere, so I made the switch long ago to Intellicast.com. I really don’t care what Jeff Masters says anymore – it’s all too predictable – and I likewise do NOT want to enrich him (Jeff Masters) by utilizing his weather website.

  20. You Republicans are obviously mentally deficient not to understand that the world is coming to an end …… unless we pay Al Gore. /Sarc

  21. I’ll see your “increase in the number of these intense wintry storms” and raise by my “Report tips bumper crop – The fourth largest crop in the state’s history has been forecast this year” in South Australia (Adelaide Advertiser 10Nov11).

    Why is it that the do-gooders wish to change the world to their idea of perfection with no regard for the 99.99% that don’t live where they are and will have negative effects from the changes they want to foist on everyone?

    No doubt the warmists will dismiss AGW as causing the bumper crop while accepting the storms are caused by the same effect.

  22. Bruce of Newcastle —you are right. add to your examples , the last time the flod gates in the lower Mississippi were opened ( before this year ) was in the early 1970’s ( not sure if it was 1974). Time to do some more research on weather events of 1973/4.

  23. last night in Melbourne (Australia) we had a severe storm warning and workers were sent home early to avoid this threatening event. We checked the yard and the house, everything was secure, we were ready. The sky grew dark, the rain pelted down for a couple of hours and then it passed. What storm, a bit of wind and rain ain’t no storm. Talk about panic the masses for no good reason. Reminds me of something, now what is it, ah its gone. I’m sure I’ll remember what it is, later.

  24. Off Topic – Joe Paterno was fired from Penn State today yet Michael Mann keeps drawing a salary. Amazing!

  25. Well, they can’t blame the atomic tests any more — they’ve got to find a scapegoat somewhere.

  26. @ John says: November 9, 2011 at 6:24 pm

    I’ve gone and searched the NWS database and can find no mention of word ‘epic’ as described in the comment you provided that we are to assume came from the NWS.

    I did however search the internet and found several other journalists making the pronouncement that the NWS did use those words but none of them provide a link to that warning or wording.

    I did stumble upon an article from Jim Spencer, a author for KXAN, an Austin based news agency.
    You can find that article here:

    http://blogs.kxan.com/2011/11/09/alaska-coast-pounded-by-epic-storm/

    Jim Spencer also provides no link of the NWS alert warning, yet the article is presented to resemble a NWS warning.

    At the end of that article we find these words:

    AGAIN…THIS WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
    STORM OF AN EPIC MAGNITUDE RARELY EXPERIENCED. ALL PEOPLE
    IN THE AREA SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO SAFEGUARD THEIR LIVES
    AND PROPERTY.
    (NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE)

    But having researched those words both on several search engines and from the NOAA database, I returned 5 matches from that blockquote, but when I link to those publications, the words epic or rarely experience DO NOT show up on those web pages.
    Im not certain, but since the NWS uses BING to handle queries for searches, I can only speculate how Bing or Google arrive at putting quotes and addresses together.

    Just more of the same drivel from other alarmist journalists.

    So I’ve sent a e-mail to Joe Stephens and asked him to provide the link where he got that NWS message and provide it to me.

    I would also like to ask the gentleman I am addressing, John, to provide the proper link that the NWS used to make that announcement.

    Otherwise, this is a clear message of lies and just another example of propaganda that has surfaced to discredit the skeptic.

    My God gentlemen, I think we have shaken someones money-maker.

    Way to go !

  27. We here in the central plains know a little about wind. We can have winds as strong as those listed above on pleasant sunny days! Monday, with our earthquakes, we had tornadoes and straight winds of over 90 mph. I think it makes as much sense to blame earthquakes on global warming as it does arctic storms.

  28. I used to think that wisdom was wasted on the youth. Now I think wisdom is being wasted on climate scientists.

  29. The earth constantly goes through natural events, some of them are disasters.
    That’s why when disasters happen in nature most thinking people call them “natural disasters.”

  30. I’ve also noticed that Dr. Master’s site has been leaning more towards alarm-ism recently – so much so that people have suggested a name chance to AGWunderground…

  31. What powers storms like this is convection. That is warm air rising in cooler air. So the engine is the difference in temperature between the surface and that at high altitude. The greater the difference, the stronger the convection. In other words, put a pot of water in a sauna, and you will get very weak convection from the surface of the water. Put that same pot of hot water in a freezer and you will get very strong convection.

    So, yes, if you increase surface temperatures, that would tend to increase the strength of convection all other things being equal (for example, if the temperature at high altitude is the same). But that tells only one side of the equation. If the temperatures at altitude are cooler, you will get increased convection and stronger storms with no change in surface temps. What matters is the difference between the two. So upper atmosphere cooling has basically the same impact as surface warming.

    Now go here: http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/amsutemps.html and select Channel 5 (14,000 feet) temperatures. Draw the graph and then select 2008 and 2009 (in addition to the preselected 2010 and 2011) and you will notice that the current global temperatures at 14,000 feet are currently very cold. In fact, the are at record cold temperatures since measurements have been taken by satellite. So what we have here is a record difference in temperatures between the surface and the air aloft. That is going to create the conditions for some pretty strong convection and some pretty strong storms to form if all other conditions are right.

    So while it is true that surface warming CAN increase storms, that is only true if the upper atmosphere remains cool. Warming the surface is one way to increase the difference. But in this case what is happening is the air aloft is very cold allowing greater convection with a stable surface temperature.

  32. C’mon folks…
    ‘Cause everbody knows,
    That the warmer it gets
    The more that it snows.

    Now Algore is a jerk
    And Mann is a liar
    But this cold snowy warming
    Proves the earth’s in a fryer.

  33. I was watching this pretty closely yesterday and observed that the lowest pressure occurred at PAGM (Gambell AK) a small island off of the mainland. The strongest winds I saw there were at 0536Z with winds sustained at 53G63 knots. The altimeter though bottomed out between 1016Z-1056Z at A2821. Only saw a low that low while stationed in Iceland.

    Teller airport (PATE) came pretty close at 0919Z with sustained winds 17055G62KTS

  34. I thought I saw the NWS special warning statement while looking on the nws.noaa.gov website for other weather warnings on the Pacific Coast that day, but I cannot find such a web page now to confirm or refute it.

    Some of the news reports to see are:

    UPI. U.S. News. ‘Epic’ storm threatens western Alaska. Published: Nov. 8, 2011 at 10:38 PM.

    “This will be an extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm of an epic magnitude rarely experienced,” the National Weather Service said.

    http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2011/11/08/Epic-storm-threatens-western-Alaska/UPI-86391320763346/

    Alaska braces for “epic” storm; evacuations begin. By Yereth Rosen | Reuters – 17 hrs ago
    http://news.yahoo.com/alaska-braces-epic-storm-evacuations-begin-020349170.html

    Surge coming after Alaska coast hit by major storm Hurricane-force winds cause damage overnight in area’s largest town

    msnbc.com staff and news service reports
    updated 11/9/2011 10:13:23 PM ET 2011-11-10T03:13:23

    The MSNBC news stories quote Jeff Osiensky talking about the threat of the storm reaching a Category 3 intensity. Other NWS/NOAA commentators talk about Global Warming removing the kind of ice cover which afforded protection in the 1974 storm, readiness to declare a state of emergency, and related alarms for this storm.

  35. Also, that report from the NWS isn’t the 2 minuted average of sustained winds…it is the highest gust. The actual ob from 11Z states:

    PATC 091055Z AUTO 13061G70KT 3/4SM M03/M06

    And the specials from earlier:
    PATC SP 1035 AWOS MM 3/4 25/20/1362G69
    PATC SP 1015 AWOS MM 3/4 25/20 1362G70

    I found this on JAAWIN, raw trends. You can probably also find it on ADDS under METARS. So, what this tells me is that, according to local observations taken by official observing devices, there were no hurricane force winds.

  36. It should also be remembered how the naval convoys during WWII (1939–1945) experienced dangerous hurricane force weather in the North Atlantic, before the claimed onslaught of increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide were supposed to have changed the global climate and storm patterns.

  37. Durban needs a some real proof and this storm was a godsend, sadly it turned out to be a storm in a tea cup. What a shame even the CO2 outputs from developed countries are pointing in the wrong direction. Parody and satire from non believers is a sign that the warmists have ran their course. The pathetic releases of their information of late trying to link everything that happens to AGW gives me pause that perhaps I should feel pity for these misguided people.

    Then I remember the cost and the brain washing of children and feel an emotion that is some what less than pity.

  38. “While the storm is weaker than the ’74 event, it appears to fit into a long-term pattern with a global-warming connection.”

    Put another way, there was a stronger storm 37 years ago, so this one must be caused by global warming. The logic of the cult becomes so removed from reality. that one wonders why anyone takes them seriously any more.

  39. Since it’s actually global cooling that causes extreme storms, I guess this one shows that it’s just barely getting started. Over the next decade or two the real monsters will hit.

  40. Dr. Masters is often quoted by the environmental writer in our local newspaper. Letters to the editor to correct his comments, even when accompanied by citations to the peer-reviewed literature, do no good. They’re never published. What Masters says is gospel to them.

  41. This only goes to prove that if any bald faced lie is shouted long enough and loud enough it becomes truth.

  42. This storm is the worst since 1974. Dr. Roy Spencer looked at strong tornadoes this spring and found they were the worst since 1974.

    There was a strong La Nina in1973-74 just as there was 2010-11.

  43. After I read the forecast of this “arctic hurricane” on the weather channel I went to wunderground.com and looked up the blogs including Joe Alaska to see what the weather was in Dutch Harbour. Surprise, surprise, a bit windy and snowy but not the major weather event being talked about. This is not the first time I have been in total disagreement with some of Dr Jeff Master’s blogs and some others on Wunderground. I have now removed Wunderground.com from my favourites list. Sometimes I wunder what planet we are talking about.

  44. John Wootton says:
    November 10, 2011 at 5:25 am

    ” This is not the first time I have been in total disagreement with some of Dr Jeff Master’s blogs and some others on Wunderground. I have now removed Wunderground.com from my favourites list. Sometimes I wunder what planet we are talking about.”

    After using “wunderground” for a long time, I quickly realized that it had morphed into two sites:

    (1) A mediocre to bad weather information site
    (2) A host for Jeff Masters’ inane weather blogging

    I wasn’t hard to switch to another site (in my case intellicast.com) which was and is a MUCH BETTER weather information site without the Jeff Masters weather blogging junk…

    For all who use Weather Underground – make the switch! You won’t regret it and you’ll wonder why you didn’t do it sooner.

  45. If people would just get in the habit to think about things before they say something, they would come off a lot less like idiots.

    I certainly hope Dr. Masters was speaking off the cuff. Or perhaps he just didn’t anticipated being asked questions, or being asked for evidence to back up his claims?

  46. This storm must have caused a whole lot of Alaskans to…go to bed. The Columbus Day storm decades ago hit the inland empire areas of Washington, Oregon, and part of Idaho and flattened several thousand trees resulting in the loss of millions of board feet. Both the front and back doors of our school were blown off their hinges and the flag along with its rope chain detached from the flag pole and disappeared into the surrounding whiplashed forest. I was in the school when it happened.

  47. Masters and his ilk are not brainwashed. They are smarties who have learned a great way to make money easily from suckers that are born every day .

  48. re: lying or stupid?

    I think we’re seeing the psychology of “The Boy who Cried Wolf”; the expectation is that someday a real wolf will show up. Unfortunately for our perpetual criers, the effect on the listeners will be the same as in the fable.

  49. James Sexton says:
    November 9, 2011 at 6:23 pm
    “It continually leaves me wondering…….. are these people intentionally lying to people or are they just that stupid?”

    I fear the worst, stupidity. If we had a meritocracy at one time, or the beginning of one, it seems to have fallen apart.

  50. This is a fine example of the principle:

    The first to Print is the opinion that counts!

    Retractions, if at all are always in small print on page 34 in the evening edition in the affiliated paper with the smallest circulation. (Hubby’s Dad owns a newspaper)

  51. Claude says:
    November 10, 2011 at 2:11 am
    Dr. Masters is often quoted by the environmental writer in our local newspaper. Letters to the editor to correct his comments, even when accompanied by citations to the peer-reviewed literature, do no good. They’re never published. What Masters says is gospel to them.

    The two local newspapers coming from the same publisher have became ever more careless about maintaining even a bare pretense of journalistic balance. Instead, they simply declare how wonderful, fair, and balanced they are, despite the obvious evidence of the exact opposite in reality. Al Gore and his retinue of Global Warming alarmists hysterically forecast a carbon dioxide soaked doom, and the newspapers trot forth the latest stories from Seth Borenstein at AP and others. Resenting the attempt at having me pay for the privilege of being subjected to their political indoctrination, it was time to make my objections known to the publisher.

    Tried to protest the fraud and hoax in the letters to the editor of our two local newspapers, same publisher. They were each and every one ignored.

    Tried to unsubscribe from the newspapers. The publisher delivered and charged for the newspapers anyway.

    Tried time and again to unsubscribe. The publisher delivered, charged for the newspapers anyway, and threatened to end the subscription if the overdue balances were not immediately paid. Yea!

    The newspapers continued to be delivered. Tried to unsubscribe from the newspapers by telephone, but they wouldn’t take my calls in person. They said to leave a message on the answering system. Doing so, I refused to subscribe…again!.

    The publisher delivered and charged for the newspapers anyway, said my subscription was being canceled, and demanded payment for overdue amounts. At least the cancellation of the subscription was ending the unwanted deliveries of the newspapers. Progress at last!

    Well, not so much progress after all. The newspapers continued to be delivered. I continued to remind the publisher by mail and by phone that the subscriptions were canceled long ago. I demanded the deliveries of the subscriptions be stopped. Sent notice of cancellations by mail. Left messages on the answering machine. Received a collection notice, scolding me because they had to suspend delivery of the newspapers for non-payment. Like I was going to believe that!

    The newspapers continued to be delivered. Went to the newspaper office to demand the deliveries and collection notices be stopped. Come back next week, the person who handles that department is on vacation, and won’t return until next week…. Leave a message canceling the subscriptions on the answering system, they helpfully suggested. Really!?!

    The newspapers continued to be delivered. The collection notice in the mail duly noted the subscription had been suspended due to non-payment, and the overdue account was being sent to a collection agency. Went in person back to the publisher’s office. Too busy with other appointments to see me, come back tomorrow. Went back the next day, waited an hour and a half, and someone finally talks to me and wants to know why I want to end my subscription to such a fine newspaper and won’t pay my badly overdue bill. Explanation being cutoff after the first five words, or was it the first three words, an abrupt and gruff promise was made to end ONE newspaper subscription. If I wanted the other newspaper subscription to be stopped, I could just telephone their easy to use and friendly telephone answering system to leave a message, or I could visit their other newspaper office and printing plant in the next town. Arrrgh.

    The newspapers continued to be delivered. Went back to the newspaper office in town to complain, and a clerk disappeared in back before returning to apologize and explain the newspaper carrier had not yet had enough TIME to receive the special notice to NOT deliver the newspaper at MY address. In fact, it may take a whole WEEK before the carrier gets the message. Surely, I didn’t mind receiving a few more free newspapers, did I, they asked? As far as the other newspaper was concerned, I was on my own.

    When I returned home from my visit to their office, their collection notice was waiting in the mail. It asked for payment in full for the past due amounts and pre-payment for the still unpaid subscriptions the publisher was kind enough to continue sending me. I dropped the reply in the mail at the post office on my way to the next town to see the publisher of the other local newspaper. After the obligatory lengthy wait, confusion over why I wasn’t there to pay my badly overdue bill, and continued difficulties in finding just the right person to talk to about my ungrateful complaints, I finally had the opportunity to make it known I long ago unsubscribed and owed nothing for anything delivered after my order to stop the subscriptions. The months old postal letter with the proof of delivery, heh heh he, seemed to play some role in resolving that particular argument in my favor. Free at last! Or, could it be?

    The newspapers continued to be delivered…but not for too much longer. They kind of stopped, started, and stopped again for some months. The bills and collection notices were much more dependable and regular in their plaintive demands for more MONEY, MONEY, MONEY! With the patience of a saint, I calmly reminded them, no contract, no subscription, no more bills, and NO MONEY! Eventually they sort of went away. So, I removed the two plastic newspaper boxes from the mailbox post which the newspaper carriers used to deliver the newspapers.

    BIG MISTAKE! It must have taken less than 48 hours, and new, two brand spanking new, plastic newspaper delivery boxes were NAILED to the mailbox post, and each one had a newspaper in it. Quickly, before the monster could gain strength and grow, the snowball could roll and grow larger, or the overdue payment notices rival a national debt somewhere, I nipped the threat in the bud, and demanded THE CARRIER remove the offending newspaper boxes WITH the unwanted printed dead tree matter. Undoubtedly impressed with my display of steadfast purpose, my rightful demands were acted upon with the alacrity due a person of my stature in the community of newspaper consumers. It couldn’t have taken more than two weeks…or so.

    No, they did not continue to deliver the newspapers. The frequency of the advertising circulars began to pickup with their plastic wrap bags appearing in the driveway more often than once a week. At least they didn’t carry Seth Borenstein’s articles, the latest doom predictions of Al Gore, the sea level rise was going to get us, or the NOAA news briefings trying to convince us we were hotter than ever before as our tomatoes in the garden remained stubbornly green into September and October. Save trees, unsubscribe from a newspaper.

    Happy as happy can be, we left our home on a months long trip. In fact, almost a year into our absence from home, a neighbor wanted to know why we ordered a product to be delivered by UPS and failed to stop our newspaper subscription before leaving home for so long. Having reached home, we found someone had been kind enough to ship us a mystery package by UPS, put two Corelle dishes on the front porch to feed a very friendly and grey tomcat never seen before, and favored us with regular deliveries of…you guessed it…those free sample newspapers with all of those those indispensable articles from Seth Borenstein and accomplices laying in the driveway. Sigh.

  52. “crosspatch says:
    November 9, 2011 at 10:07 pm
    In fact, they are at record cold temperatures since measurements have been taken by satellite.”
    I know where you are coming from and I agree with you. However the lines only show from 2002 and later. My understanding is that currently it is at about -0.1 C. At the following, it can be seen that 1993 and earlier had several years where November was below -0.1 C. Unfortunately, it does not go back to 1974.

    http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt

  53. 4 out of 5 CAGW advocates will tell you that the perceived speed of a cold wind increases with decreasing temperature. Had this storm occurred in January/February, KTUU would undoubtedly have rated it a CAT-5 (or worse).

  54. With this sort of “journalism” it will soon come to pass that any significant weather event, anytime, will be connected to global warming climate change climate disruption. Sheesh, the stupid, it burns.

    Soon come to pass? More like, already has come to pass. Pretty much any weather event is connected to AGW conjecture these days.

  55. Paul Westhaver – thanks for the link to the 1974 Newsweek article. What a hoot. I especially enjoyed:

    “Climatologists are pessimistic that political leaders will take any positive action to compensate for the climatic change, or even to allay its effects. They concede that some of the more spectacular solutions proposed, such as melting the arctic ice cap by covering it with black soot or diverting arctic rivers, might create problems far greater than those they solve. But the scientists see few signs that government leaders anywhere are even prepared t take the simple measures of stockpiling food or of introducing the variables of climatic uncertainty into economic projections of future food supplies. The longer the planners delay, the more difficult will they find it to cope with climatic change once the results become grim reality.”

    Climatologists haven’t changed a bit. It’s unfortunate that our current crop of political leaders aren’t as bright as their colleagues back in ’74.

  56. Louis Hoofstetter,

    I remember the hysteria when I was just an impressionable 13 year old. It left a frightening scar on my psyche and then, the fears of the “Nuclear Winter” propagated by no other than Carl Sagan himself….. oh woe is me…. Consider the relief and the welcomed skepticism when, as an adult, I was being told that now the earth is going burn up!

    Guys like Masters, and Borenstein, and Monbiot and Hanson and Mann and Jones must think that either we are stupid or memory-less.

  57. SteveSadlov says:
    November 10, 2011 at 12:20 pm
    So called “Global Warming” causes longer fetch? I fail to see any connection.

    Global Warming melted the sea ice cover, so the dog can no longer run directly across the ice to fetch the newspaper, but must run and swim a much longer course through the islands to fetch the newspaper with Seth Borenstein’s articles. Poor pooch gets all pooped out and must use the newspaper with Seth Borenstein’s articles to keep the porch clean.

  58. Knowing nothing about AGW I was driving home one night circa 2004 listening to a non BBC radio station when a scientist was being interviewed regarding the climate (think it may have been Prof Moerner). He took the whole nonsense apart including claims about sea levels which I gather was his field of expertise. He finished by saying that the solar physicists were predicting we would head into a very cold period mid-century, similar to the Maunder Minimum experienced in the 1500’s. He went on to say that the scientific community would begin to change it’s mind on AGW around 2007 (it was the change in the sun cycle…not that I knew)
    Everything that was forecasted by this professor has come to pass.

  59. Paul Westhaver says:
    November 10, 2011 at 11:43 am
    Louis Hoofstetter,
    [....]
    Guys like Masters, and Borenstein, and Monbiot and Hanson and Mann and Jones must think that either we are stupid or memory-less.

    Yes. Notice how Seth Borenstein has that whole Joseph Stalin and/or Leon Trotsky sort of look going on…the mustache, hair, political ideaoloy, progressive post-normal science in the service of the proletariat and its enlightened leadership cohort. Style, or substance?

  60. My wife tells me of the wild storm that devastated Holland during her childhood in the 1950s (1953). In fact wild storms have been recorded in the North Sea for centuries.

    But if one wants an authoritative perspective on the great storms of history, one must defer to Jim.

  61. “…the number of these intense wintry storms in the northern hemisphere over the past century, with a marked upward swing beginning in the mid-1960s, as the global climate has warmed.”

    Funny… I thought we were experiencing Anthropogenic Global Cooling and perhaps even a new ice age in the 70’s (caused by manmade particulate aerosols) as there was a demonstrable cooling phase between the years 1940-80….

    That time frame also coincided with a large increase of manmade CO2 emissions, yet there wasn’t any warming during that period. Now apparently, there was warming since the mid-1960’s, which coincides with increased weather severity, but even that assertion doesn’t seem to match empiric data available…

    It gets so confusing trying to keep all the stories straight…

  62. I am sorry to see that Dr. Masters has entered the realm of the twighlight zone.

    Ya know, you can tell a lie a 1,000 times, and it is still a lie, but in the twightlight zone it has overbearing truth. Rod, where are you when we need you. You have to let these poor folks have control of their tv’s and minds again. Otherwise, those of us who live in reality will continue to be bombarded with this nonsense.

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