Over the past few days, Arctic sea ice extent has braked dramatically in the daily loss rate and now has made a sharp right turn, which is rather unusual. Here’s the JAXA extent:
And here is a close up view, note the 2011 red line:
That turn is unique to the record since 2002. Note that in 2007, there was also a turn, though brief, and then melt accelerated.
It is also showing up in the NSIDC plot:
But what is really most interesting is the plot from DMI, which show not only a turn, but a reversal:
What does this mean? The short answer is, probably nothing. When we approach the minimum, and the ice pack becomes more fractured and scattered, it also becomes more susceptible to the vagaries of local and regional wind and weather.
WUWT regular and contributor “Just the facts” suggested in comments that:
One factor appears to be the Greenland Sea, where sea ice began to grow on July 15th and has been trending above average since then.
Source: ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/plots/r07_Greenland_Sea_ts.png
On the other hand, looking at the most recent comparison with 2007, the Arctic ice cover looks a bit more soupy in 2011:
Air temperature is above freezing throughout the Arctic….
…as is fairly normal for this time of year:
Clearly, at present, air temperature in the Arctic is not in any way climatologically abnormal, so the reasons for the current extent being low and making erratic turns must lie elsewhere. Wind, soot deposition/albedo, ocean currents, etc. all factor in.
So, while we may have temporarily avoided a new record minimum (as many in the “Serreze death spiral” camp said we are headed to) there’s still the possibility that the plots will turn to the left again, and resume or even accelerate. It all depends on the weather, and the outcome could go either way at this point. Historically, we have about 7 more weeks before the turn upwards as the Arctic begins the slow re-freeze.
Still, it makes for interesting observation and discussion. The WUWT sea ice page has all the latest stats, updated as soon as they are made available.
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UPDATE: Bill Illis runs his own database, and offers this interesting view in comments.
The last 21 days are the lowest melt since 1973 in my database over the same period. The total ice extent is still well-below average but there are very few periods in the record where the trend is so different than normal for an extended period of time like the current period is.
Matching up a few different datasets back to 1972.
UPDATE2: In the meantime, while extent loss slows, the NSIDC “death spiral team” tries to make a case for a record low average for July, while at the same time admitting that On July 31, 2011 Arctic sea ice extent was 6.79 million square kilometers (2.62 million square miles). This was slightly higher than the previous record low for the same day of the year, set in 2007.
Arctic sea ice at record low for July
Arctic sea ice extent averaged for July 2011 reached the lowest level for the month in the 1979 to 2011 satellite record, even though the pace of ice loss slowed substantially during the last two weeks of July. Shipping routes in the Arctic have less ice than usual for this time of year, and new data indicate that more of the Arctic’s store of its oldest ice disappeared.
Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent for July 2011 was 7.92 million square kilometers (3.06 million square miles). The magenta line shows the 1979 to 2000 median extent for that month. The black cross indicates the geographic North Pole. Sea Ice Index data. About the data.
—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data CenterHigh-resolution image
Overview of conditions
Average ice extent for July 2011 was 7.92 million square kilometers (3.06 million square miles). This is 210,000 square kilometers (81,000 square miles) below the previous record low for the month, set in July 2007, and 2.18 million square kilometers (842,000 square miles) below the average for 1979 to 2000.
On July 31, 2011 Arctic sea ice extent was 6.79 million square kilometers (2.62 million square miles). This was slightly higher than the previous record low for the same day of the year, set in 2007. Sea ice coverage remained below normal everywhere except the East Greenland Sea.
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We don’t need all these facts and graphs; what do the models say? That is what is important!
“What does this mean? The short answer is, probably nothing. When we approach the minimum, and the ice pack becomes more fractured and scattered, it also becomes more susceptible to the vagaries of local and regional wind and weather.”
Well said – although I’d expect the usual “victory lap” from those that will try to seize on this as evidence that we’re not seeing longer term changes….
Seems that ice export through Fram Strait has come to a halt for the past few weeks. That, and a change in weather over the Beaufort Sea.
Just when you thought it was safe to bet your quatloos over at Lucia’s site this happens…
Yes- sharp right turn. The first sites I check each morning are IJIS and DMI, both linked above. IJIS reports a ‘smoothed’ graph and DMI shows more pronounced daily input data. This is all just ‘interesting’ to me, as I don’t see anything in all of science which might indicate total Arctic sea ice loss in future, despite CAGW howling to the contrary.
All the heat’s down here in Oklahoma and Texas.
Will trade Arctic ice for a cool front here.
Hmmm, interesting, but this has got to be a weather event, it is waaaaaay to soon for the melt to be over… Right?
It’s been a very “cold” summer where I am (the Balkans), probably the coldest in ~40 years. The trend for the last ~10 years is definitely COOLING.
I love it when it upticks just to annoy warmistas of course it means absolutely nothing the whole concept is just drivel. 90% ice is in antarctica and its being normal for the past 300000 years! BTW Prof Plimer has given a very interesting recent short talk check it at you tube.
[snip – policy violation – trying to advertise a website on art prints]
Wind.
Anybody else see that as a left turn? I picture it as if driving down line, you turn left. I guess Anthony looks at it as the line curves toward the right side of the graph…
Looks like a left turn to me.
It looks more like a left turn to me.
Is it really normal that we have a large area of below freezing temperatures over the arctic already at this time of the year?
Looks like it’s turning upward.
Look, I’m damned if I do, damned if I don’t, from a “driving” perspective, headed left, from looking at which direction the data is headed looking at the plot normally, headed right. To each his or her own.
But if complaining about left/right is the best commentary you can muster, save it.
The UK also drives on the wrong side of the road.
Ice extent is interesting this year as we get more surprises – but when i look at 2007 the ice looks more dense in terms of the colour of the purple…. what is ice volume doing? A few years ago there was some debate over PIPS and PIOMAS being better, how did that all turn out?
Definitely a left turn.
(No problems with spatial awareness here.)
A couple months don’t mean much, but in an electronic context I’d say the wave is changing phase, maybe indicating an increase in frequency.
kb says:
August 3, 2011 at 9:15 am
Anybody else see that as a left turn? I picture it as if driving down line, you turn left. I guess Anthony looks at it as the line curves toward the right side of the graph…
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Thanks! I needed that.
The last 21 days are the lowest melt since 1973 in my database over the same period. The total ice extent is still well-below average but there are very few periods in the record where the trend is so different than normal for an extended period of time like the current period is.
Matching up a few different datasets back to 1972.
http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/5461/nhsie72aug211.png
It’s just a jump to the left
And then a step to the right
With your hands on your hips
You bring your knees in tight
But it’s the pelvic thrust that really drives you insane,
Let’s do the Time Warp again!
A new study shows that penguins quit farting because of the lack of sunspots so their metabolism is not that active therefore less greenhouse gas is present in the atmosphere, oh my a new ice age is coming we need to force those penguins to eat beans…or Al Gore hahaha
Is it time to panic yet?
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/ice_ext_s.png
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png
http://www.climate4you.com/images/NSIDC%20GlobalArcticAntarctic%20SeaIceArea.gif
Long term natural warming from the LIA: click
Arctic warming is still far below the freezing point of water, indicating that the reason for the recent decline in Arctic sea ice is due primarily to changes in regional ocean currents and wind, along with other possible [but minor] factors such as ice breakers.
CO2 is well mixed in the global atmosphere, so it cannot be the cause of Arctic ice decline. Otherwise, Antarctic ice would be experiencing a similar decline.