The sun seems not to be in cooperative mood again this month. It has gone blank again.
And from SWPC, the brief upticks of April were not repeated in May:
More info at the WUWT solar page
The sun seems not to be in cooperative mood again this month. It has gone blank again.
And from SWPC, the brief upticks of April were not repeated in May:
More info at the WUWT solar page
Who would have thought it. It’s the sun that drives climate. Amazing.
It should be low 70’s in June. Today, low 60’s. But that’s the UK for you weather does not obey the UK Met Office who again forecast record summer temperatures, but did not mention bar-b-qs.
Old SOL entering another “Death Throws” period? It’s no wonder tyhe Aussie Govn’t is keen on a “carbon” tax.
Don’t they tell us that the sun has nothing to do with climate.
Does this mean it’s worse than we thought? Are we all doomed?
Sorry? Spaceweather.com is reporting solar spot 1234 at the moment. It might be tiny but its there.And we only had 1 day so far without any spots. Compared to last year and before we’re doing good. Eh, the sun is doing good.
One month doth not make a cycle
Maybe, like before, your mentioning it will get it going again.
Unprecedented!
I said on WUWT a couple of months ago that the uptick would not last. I was right. I’m not going to try to predict what’s coming next though, because the Sun is in a thoroughly unpredictable state. Pretty much anything could happen, and probably will.
“tallbloke says:
June 13, 2011 at 4:37 am
I’m not going to try to predict what’s coming next though, because the Sun is in a thoroughly unpredictable state.”
I wish, really wish, people “GET” this!!!
I wonder just how much solar science will be changed by this period of quiescence? We have a lot of eyes on the prize this time, and I can’t help but wonder what sort of new perspective will emerge once the masses of data are poured over. I guess a lot of folks have been waiting a lifetime for this.
Small spots were never seen in the old days.
see, if my name was Mann or Jones, I would say “based on the evidence, it is clear that this solar cycle is now over and we are headed directly to the next minimum!”
IF my name were Mann or Jones. It isn’t.
Daily sunspot graph here:
http://members.westnet.com.au/jonas1/SunspotGraph.JPG
I don’t claim to have any knowledge about how the sun behaves, but eyeballing the graph it seems too early to draw conclusions. Yes, the sun is taking a breather, but it has done that before in this cycle and still recovered to around the (latest) predicted level.
[PS. Hopefully I have got the graph right, but it isn’t peer-reviewed]
I suggest we send a rocket to the sun full of neuclear weapons to bring back CO2 caused AGW, otherwise there are going to be a lot of embarresed climate scientists and we might have to get rid of green taxes.
Patrick Davis says:
June 13, 2011 at 4:41 am
Translation: If temperatures start climbing in the next few months it doesn’t mean that the sun is not the main driver.
I wish, really wish, people “GET” this!!!
I think I now get it – it goes something like this: There is a clear and obvious relationship between solar activity and climate except when there isn’t, i.e. when the sun is “in a thoroughly unpredictable state”.
John Finn says:
June 13, 2011 at 5:20 am
I think I now get it – it goes something like this: There is a clear and obvious relationship between solar activity and climate except when there isn’t, i.e. when the sun is “in a thoroughly unpredictable state”.
Heh. Hi John. I could say the same about co2 levels….
I’ve had another try at getting over the relationship between solar activity and El Nino. See what you think:
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/06/12/the-timing-of-el-nino-in-relation-to-the-solar-cycle/
nope – you don’t get it Mr Finn. You confuse translation with interpretation.
TB is simply saying that predicting solar activity for this cycle is going to be very difficult – nothing more.
I guess it’s time for breakfast, because that picture of the blank Sun looks like a fried egg to me.☺
John Finn & Tallbloke
“The sensitivity of climate to cyclical variations in solar forcing will be higher for longer cycles due to the thermal inertia of the ocean, which acts to damp high frequencies. Using a phenomenological approach, Scafetta and West (2005) found that the climate was 1.5 times as sensitive to 22 year cyclical forcing relative to 11 year cyclical forcing, and that the thermal inertial induced a lag of approximately 2.2 years in cyclic climate response in the temperature data.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation
LIke always, lag a little less than 1/4 of the forcing cycle time.
“Translation: If temperatures start climbing in the next few months it doesn’t mean that the sun is not the main driver.”
Pretty poor translation. TB didnt say anything about temperatures or about the sun driving anything. More like a telling response to a verbal Rorschach.
Its looking more and more like David Archibald was right. I hope this will be acknowledged. It’s actually very, scary the transition to ice age apparently occurs very rapidly 20 years.
wws says: June 13, 2011 at 5:00 am
see, if my name was Mann or Jones, I would say “based on the evidence, it is clear that this solar cycle is now over …
If I were Mann or Jones, I’d draw a line where I think the solar activity is, then I’d use a highly sophisticated technique called: “multiplying the value by a number big enough to make them match”, then I’d claim the science clearly shows that we can predict solar activity (because there’s a rough resemblance between my calculation and the result it is supposed to match). Then I’d claim that “anyone who disagrees with the fundamental solar science is a denialist and must be in the pay of big oil”.
In the meantime the great British Public is being softend up to learn to live with the oncoming ‘controlled power cuts’ because of the increased activity of that same darn Sun expected at the next maximum, or, not mentioned but the real agenda, because of the ludicrous energy policies of the current Government.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/controlled-power-cuts-likely-as-sun-storm-threatens-national-grid-2296748.html
Can somebody explain to me how come the graph of sun spots reaches above 40 SS while watching the sun for the last year or so the maximum number was around 20, and that was on a “stormy” week.
The current count in the last few months is around 1- 10 – and very tiny spots at that.
i am sure that prior to digital era these spots were never seen – let alone counted.