On the Climate Audit thread, The Vergano FOI Request the irascible Nick Stokes provokes another commenter “mpaul”, to lay out all the history in a simple summary that even Nick might understand. I thought it was worth repeating here for readers who have not followed the twists and turns in detail, and also in the hope that Dr. Michael Mann might read it and get a clue. Obstruction doesn’t pay.
From this Climate Audit comment:
mpaul
But I don’t think snooping through people’s private emails is a dignified activity.
Nick, I’ll turn the sarcasm off for a moment. I agree with you on this point. I have been an advocate for Cuccinelli CID process. Say what you will about Cuccinelli’s motives, but the American justice system provides protections for the accused and standards of procedure that do not exist in the court of public opinion.
We have arrived at this point in history along the following path:
(1) Steve wanted to replicate MBH98 and asked for data. Mann initially complied, but then began to obstruct.
(2) Steve successfully obtained the needed data and demonstrated serious flaws in Mann’s approach.
(3) Mann defended his work by saying that other Hockey Stick reconstructions validated his method and his conclusions.
(4) Attention turned to replicating the other reconstructions. By now, the Team had become extremely defensive and a sort of bunker mentality took over. Years of obstruction followed.
(5) Those seeking the data and methods used in the HS reconstructions became more and more aggressive, eventually turning to FOIA as a tool to pry loose the information.
(6) Then “a miracle happened’. A file containing materials and emails requested under FOIA turned up on the internet. Most everyone would agree that the contents of the emails warranted an investigation. The only investigation that specifically looked into Mann’s conduct was undertaken by Penn State. Penn State cleared Mann noting that Mann stated:
(a) he had never falsified any data, nor had he had ever manipulated data to serve a given predetermined outcome;
(b) he never used inappropriate influence in reviewing papers by other scientists who disagreed with the conclusions of his science;
(c) he never deleted emails at the behest of any other scientist, specifically including Dr. Phil Jones, and that he never withheld data with the intention of obstructing science; and
(d) he never engaged in activities or behaviors that were inconsistent with accepted academic practices.
(7) Critics have charged that the Penn State investigation was inadequate. Michael Mann has subsequently stated that he did, in fact, participate in an orchestrated effort to delete emails covered under FOIA, raising questions about the veracity of statements he made to the Penn State investigators. Penn State seems untroubled by this.
A real, independent investigation, subject to rules of evidence and judicial procedures, is needed. Such an investigation is the only way to put and end to Climategate and is the only way to restore the tattered reputation of climate science. I think both Virginia and Pennsylvania should conduct an investigation. However, if UVa continues to obstruct the CID, then FOIA is the only option and Mann will be afforded no protection of his privacy.
Mann and UVa are playing a losing game. Its sheer folly to attempt to frustrate a State AG in a law enforcement investigation. Cuccinelli has nuclear weapons at his disposal and UVa has water pistols. If Cuccinelli loses the CID battle, he will simply file a lawsuit and obtain the materials through discovery. Or, if UVa really pisses him off, he will convene a Grand Jury. For Mann personally, this would be catastrophic. Mann and UVa should cooperate with the CID process.
It’s sad that we have arrived at this place. But at every juncture in this journey, Mann has chosen the wrong path.
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If I lie to a Federal Official, no matter if I am under oath or not, it is considered obstruction of justice and hence a crime. I am not sure what Mann said to who, but if it involved Federal authorities and he stated one thing and then another later, he had better get a good lawyer. There is a potential to prosecute him for this.
The old method of show your work…….. Would have put a stop to this if there was nothing to hide.
It’s the basic premis of all professional work. Document document document, so that anyone can follow your work, working as part of a team.
re: getting a clue
Dr. Michael Mann couldn’t get a clue even if his mom dropped him off in front of the clue store and handed him a clue coupon.
Why is this not required reading for legslaors – and commentators – everywhere?
In a walnut-shell.
mpaul – so many thanks!
A.
Please, Dr. Mann, please keep stonewalling. Please provoke a grand jury inquiry. Then maybe some of the Climategate Elite will learn how the everyday taxpayer lives.
Actually, what could be more refreshing than to finally uncover the truth, albeit at the sacrifice of Dr. Mann. (I’ve reached the point in life that I’m looking back evaluating if my contribution to mankind has been worth the effort. For Dr. Mann to do so would be a big negative–a wasted life, a felonious one at that.)
The argument that it is somehow an unsavory act to snoop though someone’s email doesn’t seem to come into play when someone wants all of a government department’s email, does it? I mean, I seem to remember a lot of hoopla surrounding the scooping up of a bunch of Bush Administration email.
When you have research that is conducted with public money and you have the results of that research possibly influencing the allocation of orders of magnitude more public money, and when you see activity consistent with attempting to hide the data and methods used in that research, the public has a right to the correspondence concerning that research. Granted, the public has no right to someone’s discussions with their proctologist, but that is not what is at issue here. This is correspondence pertaining directly to that research.
at every juncture in this journey, Mann has chosen the wrong path.
The best way to ensure people trust you, is to demonstrate that you are your own worst critique: to proactively seek to have your work cross checked and validated. The fact that Mann had made a mistake was not a problem, so long as he was prepared to acknowledge that mistake and deal with it. Instead of dealing with his mistakes, he has continually tried to pretend there was no mistake.
Every real scientist makes mistakes, indeed the best ones probably make the biggest mistakes. So what marks out the great scientists is that they learn from their mistakes and improve their work as result thereby gaining tremendous credit amongst their opponents.
In contrast Mann just can’t get it out of his thick skull, that when you’re in a hole, the worst possible strategy is to keep digging.
mpaul, it may sound petty but I am so disgusted with the whole hockey team I can’t express.
At this point I would rather see them continue on the path of obstruction till they burn themselves alive than to see them cooperate.
The tragedy here is what isn’t being said. These so-called climate scientists, Mann, Jones, et. al., have been lying about their dishonest methods. They have been conspiring to prevent the publication of other scientists work. They have been misleading the public. And they have done all of it at the tax payers expense.
What scientist wouldn’t want their work to be scrutinized, if they knew they were correct?
What scientist would want their work scrutinized if they knew their work to be wrong, and stood to lose standing, funding if they were found out? Mann, Jones, and the rest are of the second sort.
What’s funny is people believe this could or would put an end to the climate madness we’re in. Even if Cuccinelli goes nuclear and even if he finds felonious behavior, it won’t stop the machine.
I remember arriving in D.C. some time ago. The mayor of this nation’s capital had just been video taped smoking crack! Every where I went, there were t-shirts worn with words something akin to “The female dog set him up!” Anyway, trail and prison interrupted his running for mayor, but after he was done with that, he became mayor of our nation’s capital once again. He’s sitting on the council now.
It just works like that. For people that liked the mayor, there was nothing that could be shown about him the would change their mind about him. It didn’t matter what he did or didn’t do. The same would be true about MM and the minions that believe in the cause he champions. Nothing else will be seen as relevant.
Why does Nick Stokes continually make himself look as bad as Mann? Why does he continue so strongly to defend the indefensible? What is it about the character of these people that makes them that way?
crosspatch says:
June 2, 2011 at 1:49 pm
When you have research that is conducted with public money and you have the results of that research possibly influencing the allocation of orders of magnitude more public money, and when you see activity consistent with attempting to hide the data and methods used in that research, the public has a right to the correspondence concerning that research.
—
Crosspatch is entirely correct. The reason that this is being fought tooth and nail (to the tune of $0.5 million +) has EVERYTHING to do with the influence this “research” (via the IPCC and other world entities) is having on our daily lives through: (1) cap and trade legislation, (2) energy production restrictions, (3) overzealous EPA regulation, (4) restrictions on vehicle production, and on and on…
In short – there are billions of dollars wrapped up in the climate industry. Climate scientists are basically trying to protect their stash, while simultaneously aspiring to be “rock stars” in the extreme eco-advocacy arena (cf. Jim Hansen).
And remember – they don’t care about YOUR job – just theirs…
Re ShrNfr comment: Martha Stewart went to jail for way less than this. I hope for his sake, too, that Mann has a good lawyer. I am also really glad I am not a Virginia taxpayer having to foot the bill for a state institution to obstruct and defy the state attorney general in a legal matter.
Never have so many been decieved by so few.
With apologies to Winston Churchill
Wouldn’t it be funny if everyone sent Mann a squirt gun?
It is truly unfortunately that, in all likelihood, If Mann and others were brought before the Grand Jury in an effort to clean up the entire mess, they would ALL likely plead the 5th to avoid self prosecution. So unless one volunteers to turn states evidence, nothing is likely to come of the effort
They say it’s not the initial actions which get you in trouble, it’s the cover up.
In Mann’s case, it will probably be both.
So many hundreds of billions of dollars have been wasted, misdirected into futile and sometimes criminal public policy initiatives, enriching may of the great promoters of AGW in their careers and or their bank accounts.
Justice will be done and the fools will be made to pay.
Under US Law, are there charges that could be brought against those within UVa, that have aided and abetted the obstruction?
Or will graduates of UVa have to suffer being the butt of jokes for years to come? Along with Penn State graduates of course.
Climategate has only confirmed what many thought of UEA in the UK. See Monty Python sketch on Village Idiots
If you have not read Montford’s “The Hockey Stick Illusion”, then you are likely not up to speed regarding this post. It is advertised on the right hand column of this website.
No one went snooping through e-mail. CRU prepared the file. The file didn’t contain all e-mails, only the ones that were responsive to the FOI request.
(2) Steve successfully obtained the needed data and demonstrated serious flaws in Mann’s approach.
(3) Mann defended his work by saying that other Hockey Stick reconstructions validated his method and his conclusions.
And by demonstrating that the criticisms had an insignificant effect on the conclusions.
(5) Those seeking the data and methods used in the HS reconstructions became more and more aggressive, eventually turning to FOIA as a tool to pry loose the information.
MBH98/99 are now over a decade old, all the data and code for Mann 2008 were published with the paper.
Michael Mann has subsequently stated that he did, in fact, participate in an orchestrated effort to delete emails covered under FOIA,
Tosh, possibly libellous. He forwarded a mail, without comment, to Gene Wahl, who states: For the record, while I received the email from CRU as forwarded by Dr. Mann, the forwarded message came without any additional comment from Dr. Mann; there was no request from him to delete emails. . Mann commented:- Mann said, “I felt Eugene Wahl had to be aware of this e-mail … it could be used against him. I didn’t delete any e-mails and nor did I tell Wahl to delete any e-mails.”
Orchestrated campaign? Participate? Pure Handwaving.
Dave L
I second that recommendation for the Hockey Stick Illusion by Andrew Montford.
If only the politicians would read it, they might realise how they are being conned into wrecking the economies of the developed world.
Though not covered in the book, the developing world has seen no benefit from measures to restrict CO2 emissions, and has actually led to less investment in infrastructure. People are not dying from global warming, but a lack of clean drinking water and electricity, denied to them by the myth of man made global warning.
I am not a conspiracy theorist by any stretch of the imagination – but the lack of transparency in this particular issue (and of course many others) is somewhat damning. As has been said many times before, if you have nothing to hide, then why hide?
As far as I am concerned, the data and workinsg were most probably flawed. Further, Mann and the ‘Team’ probably knew that it was flawed and could easily be discovered.
If there was clear scientifically based proof of AGW – we wouldn’t be here discussing. Those that promote the theory really need to put up or shut up!