Klotzbach and Gray continue to expect a well above-average hurricane season

The last (and my favorite) of the major hurricane seasonal forecasts came out yesterday. Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray from Colorado State are sticking with their April forecast. Rather anti-climactic, but perhaps it’s a measure of the confidence in the forecast. I didn’t have a chance to write up something in April, so I’ll do it now before normalcy, if it sets in, brings six weeks of inactivity.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts is used in most of the following. My comments are in italics.

Klotzbach & Gray New June Predictor regions

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2011

We continue to foresee well above-average activity for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. We are predicting the same levels of activity that were forecast in early April due to the combination of expected neutral ENSO conditions and very favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the tropical Atlantic. We continue to anticipate an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.

Note – in the table below, I changed K&G’s June numbers to the range that include ±1 standard deviation of their hindcast error and added a column with NOAA’s forecast.

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000

Climatology (in parentheses)

Issue Date

8 December 2010

Issue Date

6 April 2011

Issue Date

1 June 2011

NOAA
Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 17 16 12.3 – 19.7 12-18
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1) 85 80 59.9 – 101.1
Hurricanes (H) (5.9) 9 9 6.9 – 11.1 6-10
Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5) 40 35 24.8 – 45.2
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3) 5 5 3.4 – 6.6 3-6
Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (5.0) 10 10 4.7 – 15.3
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) 165 160 112 – 212
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%) 180 175 127 – 223

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:

  1. Entire U.S. coastline – 72% (average for last century is 52%)
  2. U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida – 48% (average for last century is 31%)
  3. Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville – 47% (average for

    last century is 30%)

PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN (10-20°N, 60-88°W)

  1. 61% (average for last century is 42%)

Acknowledgment

This year’s forecasts are funded by private and personal funds. We thank the GeoGraphics Laboratory at Bridgewater State College (MA) for their assistance in developing the United States Landfalling Hurricane Probability Webpage (available online at http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane).

The forecast is a blend of a statistical analysis, a search for analog years with similarities to April-May conditions and the expected August-October conditions, and “qualitative adjustments for other factors not explicitly contained in any of these schemes.”

As they often do, the June forecast is based on a new June statistical model and uses just four predictors (the geographic ranges are in the image at the top):

Predictor 2011 Forecast Value
1) April-May SST (15-55°N, 15-35°W) (+) +0.3 SD
2) April-May 200 MB U (0-15°S, 150°E-20°W) (+) +1.6 SD
3) ECMWF 1 May SST Forecast for September Nino 3 (5°S-5°N, 90-150°W) (-) +0.3 SD
4) May SLP (20-40°N, 30-50°W) (-) -0.9 SD

Decoding key: SST: Sea Surface Temperature; SLP: Sea Level Pressure, SD: Standard deviation; 200 MB U: zonal wind at atmospheric pressure 200 mb, an altitude of about 40,000 feet.

Other notes:

ENSO

The moderate-to-strong La Niña conditions of this past winter have continued to weaken since early April. According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), SST anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific have now warmed to the point where ENSO is in its neutral state. While the moderation of tropical Pacific SSTs have continued over the past couple of months, we do not expect to see a transition to El Niño conditions during the next several months.

Current Atlantic Basin Conditions

Conditions in the Atlantic remain favorable for an active season. May SSTs across the tropical Atlantic remain at above-average levels (Figure 17). The anomalously strong trades during the latter part of the winter that caused some anomalous cooling in the tropical Atlantic have now weakened (Figure 18). Sea level pressure anomalies during the month of May were also well below-average throughout the tropical Atlantic (Figure 19). Altogether, tropical Atlantic conditions currently reflect an environment conducive for an active hurricane season.

Forthcoming Updated Forecasts of 2011 Hurricane Activity

We will be issuing a final seasonal updates of our 2011 Atlantic basin hurricane forecast on Wednesday, 3 August. We will also be issuing two-week forecasts for Atlantic TC activity during the climatological peak of the season from August-October. A late-season forecast for the Caribbean will be issued in early October. A verification and discussion of all 2011 forecasts will be issued in late November 2011. All of these forecasts will be available on the web at: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts.

I will likely report on the Aug. 3rd update, but will probably not cover the two-week forecasts. Last year, several were dominated by current activity, low or high.

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Rob Dawg

Sadly anything close to prediction will be touted as confirmation of model. Anything above will also be used to promote agenda. This is a set up for false positives.

Steve R

Isn’t one of he more succesful indicators for Atlantic hurricane prediction 6 months out use dust levels in the subSaharen Sahel region? I thought I remembered reading about something like that.

Tom T

Probability that the probabilities can be proven wrong 0%. These thing will either will happen or not in which case the probabilities are 100% or 0%.

ew-3

I’m predicting 1 hurricane in the Atlantic.
If get 5, I’ll contact the media and report we got 5 times as many hurricanes as expected. The end is near!

crosspatch

My guess is we will have an active season. We have tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures at or slightly below normal but we have air aloft that is much colder than normal. This will make for much more vigorous convection. What powers these storms is a difference in temperature. The greater the difference, the more powerful the storm. You can have warmer water or you can have colder air, as long as that difference in temperature is there, you will have powerful convection.
Air temperatures above 25,000 feet are the coldest we have recorded since they have been measured by satellites. Warm, wet air will rise quickly in that cold air resulting it a stronger updraft which should get things spinning nicely.

svaethesharks

I am personally getting sick and tired of the snide comments written so far and some before, the scoffs at probability forecasting for tropical cyclones.
Dr. Gray has made a career of being quite successful in forecasting the seasons.
The eastern seaboard states (and this does not include the gulf coast states) of the USA contain 112 MILLION people, most of them in rather close proximity to the coast.
Put another way, even though the Eastern Seaboard is only 11.8% percent of the area of the United States…it contains 37% of its total population.
The largest mega-region in the USA, some 50 million people, includes New York City, one of the largest cities in the world, and one that could be quite vulnerable to the (indeed if rare) direct hit from a tropical cyclone.
And I will not even begin to start talking about very densely populated South Florida…
True, tropical cyclones don’t usually bring the instantaneous and apocalyptic destruction that say, tsunamis do (on a large scale) or that of an EF5 tornado (on a small scale.)
But they can be extremely disruptive to commerce, destructive to infrastructure and property, not to mention a major, major threat to life and safety.
In light of the fact that these beasts are the largest storms on earth…and have been responsible for catastrophically huge losses to life and property across the globe…
…I am mystified why some individuals on here, cowardly hiding behind their little computer keyboards in their climate-controlled rooms and insulated from Nature’s dangers, would make light of hurricane forecasting, with cheap, uncalled-for, below-the-belt, class A bull****.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA

svaethesharks

crosspatch says:
June 2, 2011 at 8:21 pm
My guess is we will have an active season. We have tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures at or slightly below normal but we have air aloft that is much colder than normal. This will make for much more vigorous convection. What powers these storms is a difference in temperature. The greater the difference, the more powerful the storm. You can have warmer water or you can have colder air, as long as that difference in temperature is there, you will have powerful convection.
Air temperatures above 25,000 feet are the coldest we have recorded since they have been measured by satellites. Warm, wet air will rise quickly in that cold air resulting it a stronger updraft which should get things spinning nicely.
============================
These are very, very good observations….and in line with Dr. Spencer’s remarks on his website as to the most violent tornadic cyclones being a product of so much cold air aloft.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA

savethesharks

Whoops I see I mis-typed my screen name so it published a couple times wrong.
The screen name is savethesharks.
Name is Chris. Sorry about that.

savethesharks

Mods one of my comments may have gone to spam because I typed in my screen name wrong.
Sorry about the trouble of rescuing. I will pay more attention next time.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA

John F. Hultquist

svaethesharks says:
June 2, 2011 at 8:37 pm

I went to a lecture at the local university tonight. The speaker noted that scientists are often wrong but there is not anything wrong with that. What is wrong, is when they don’t learn anything from being wrong. The commenters here (and elsewhere) are mostly just having a bit of fun with the early-stage learning curve of hurricane prediction.
Klotzbach and Gray deserve support for their efforts and openness and, my guess is, nearly everyone knows and understands this. Your points about the danger to densely populated areas are also well known. There has been no harm nor none intended from the comments – just a little bit of folks trying to write something that might seem a little witty at the end of a busy week. Right now, if I lived in the South I would go find a nice place to get some good barbeque and a beer. Where I now live the folks think searing a hot dog over charcoal is “barbeque.” Now that’s both mystifying and sad.
What’s with svae?

Policyguy

svaethesharks says:
June 2, 2011 at 8:37 pm
Chris,
It doesn’t appear to me that anyone is diminishing the potential danger of these storms on land or sea. The issue is the integrity of the forecasts. Unfortunately there is an impression that these forecasts are announced intentionally at the high end in probabilities for the forecaster’s own reasons, rather than striving for likely, probable occurrences. Its not as if individual local areas are forecasted to be targeted. Instead everyone is put on the edge of fear. Maybe that’s good so people will be prepared if something happens. But how many times can one credibly say the sky is falling if it isn’t. At this point everyone is watching. Casting the weather is dicey. We’ll see.
Perhaps, in the end, we are all deceived by weather. If the Norse had accurate future forecasts (akin to our great climate models), perhaps Greenland would never have been settled.

savethesharks

Policyguy says:
June 2, 2011 at 10:54 pm
svaethesharks says:
June 2, 2011 at 8:37 pm
Chris,
It doesn’t appear to me that anyone is diminishing the potential danger of these storms on land or sea. The issue is the integrity of the forecasts. Unfortunately there is an impression that these forecasts are announced intentionally at the high end in probabilities for the forecaster’s own reasons, rather than striving for likely, probable occurrences. Its not as if individual local areas are forecasted to be targeted. Instead everyone is put on the edge of fear. Maybe that’s good so people will be prepared if something happens. But how many times can one credibly say the sky is falling if it isn’t. At this point everyone is watching. Casting the weather is dicey. We’ll see.
=====================
Oh really???
Go back and revisit some of the snide, milktoast, climate-controlled, comments.
For people in Sendai Japan and Joplin MO….. the sky DEFINITELY FELL..

http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/national_world/stories/2011/05/23/tornado_video.html?sid=101
Maybe you could make your assessement after that.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA

Richard111

“”Ric Werme says:
June 2, 2011 at 9:26 pm
– – –
Dust both shades the ocean, slowing down SST warming, and warms the air around the dust, resulting in a more stable atmosphere suppressing the convection vital to a tropical storm.“”

My bold. Is this not what happens in a warming world? Would the good Dr Gray be basing his forecast on a cooling world?

Jerzy

Hurricane or no hurricane, if Houston Texas doesn’t get rain soon, I will be forced to conclude that there is no Republican God.

pat

Of course it does not really matter, all these warmists want is death and destruction by weather. That instantly becomes climate in the minds of these charlatans. One bad hurricane is all they pray for.

crosspatch

I would look at a couple of other indicators:
1. Atlantic trade wind anomalies
2. Strength and location of the Bermuda High
1 and 2 are related. The stronger the Bermuda High, the stronger the trade winds. Strong trades mean a lot of sheer and storms get ripped apart. The location is important because if the high is to the East, storms will go into the Gulf. If it is to the West, the Atlantic seaboard is at risk. Tell me the sea surface temps, temps aloft, location and strength of the Bermuda High, and I will tell you what the hurricane season will be.
A weak high means more storms, strong high means less (greater pressure gradient making for strong trades which cool the ocean surface).

crosspatch

“if the high is to the East, storms will go into the Gulf. If it is to the West, the Atlantic seaboard is at risk.”
That logic is backwards. High to the East means Atlantic seaboard and vice versa. Sorry.

Steve R

I have no problem with hurricane forecasting, except for the ignorant, worthless, global warming based predicitions.

John Marshall

I don’t care about their forecast, but how do their past forecasts stack up against reality?
Rather like our UK Met. Office and their forecast of a bar-b-cue summer, which was a wash out, and last winter was to be mild but turned out to be the coldest for many years, I have taken all meteorological forecasts for longer than 3 days with a very large pinch of salt.

Jimbo

I don’t know what the hurricane season is going to be like. However, after well over 30 years of ‘man-made’ global warming we have this:

May 16, 2011
“It has been 975 days since any hurricane made landfall in the US. The longest hurricane free period since before the Civil War.”

SEPTEMBER 1, 2005 : former Energy Dept. official Joseph Romm. “Katrina is the shape of things to come.“
http://www.businessweek.com/

http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/05/16/975-days/

Geophysical Research Letters (in revision)
R.N. Maue (Florida State University)
Abstract:
In the five years since 2006, Northern Hemisphere and overall global tropical cyclone (TC) accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) has decreased dramatically to the lowest levels in at least 30-years. Here we examine the strikingly large global interannual variability of TC ACE during the past 40-years and shed light on the large-scale climate mechanisms responsible for the recent historical downturn in TC activity. Much of the variability in global TC ACE is explained by the concomitant changes or evolution in the character of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In the context of the Pacific climate variability and its effect on global TC activity, our results suggest that the ongoing period of heightened North Atlantic hurricane activity is related to decreases in storm activity elsewhere.

See also Hurricane Intensity
I want to ask Al Gore: What is global warming supposed to do to hurricanes?

Jimbo

After well over 30 years of ‘man-made’ global warming we have this:

Climate control of the global tropical storm days (1965–2008)
Wang et al.
The tropical storm days have a consistent global record over the past 44 years (1965–2008), which provides an alternative metric for integrated information about genesis, track, and lifespan………………..However, the global total number of storm days shows no trend and only an unexpected large amplitude fluctuation driven by El Niño-Southern Oscillation and PDO. The rising temperature of about 0.5°C in the tropics so far has not yet affected the global tropical storm days.

Al Gore and the other igNobel prize winners should now step up to the plate and tell us what global warming is supposed to do to hurricanes?

Joseph

I am in Florida. The hurricane season for the last few years has been very quiet, please check the insurance industry’s profits for conformation. Our local weather people on TV love to play up the dangers of the hurricane season and have appeared petulant for the last few years as there have been no “killer-storms” to send a weather-babe out into for “gripping” footage.
Like most important natural events, the CAGW alarmists/activist crowd will attempt to use any hurricane to trumpet their religion (it is certainly not science) and scare the populace. Since we moved here in ’59 we have seen cycles of hurricane activity as well as cycles of hot/cold winters. Funny how “scientists” have forgotten that cycles are important in climate analysis. Perhaps they can only do linear equations on their computers?

C. DISCUSSION
In a global warming or global cooling world, the atmosphere’s upper air temperatures
will warm or cool in unison with the SSTs. Vertical lapse rates will not be significantly
altered. We have no plausible physical reasons for believing that Atlantic hurricane
frequency or intensity will change significantly if global ocean temperatures were to
continue to rise. For instance, in the quarter-century period from 1945-1969 when the
globe was undergoing a weak cooling trend, the Atlantic basin experienced 80 major (Cat
3-4-5) hurricanes and 201 major hurricane days. By contrast, in a similar 25-year period
from 1970-1994 when the globe was undergoing a general warming trend, there were
only 38 Atlantic major hurricanes (48% as many) and 63 major hurricane days (31% as
many) (Figure 26). Atlantic SSTs and hurricane activity do not follow global mean
temperature trends.
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2011/june2011/jun2011.pdf

el gordo

Richard 111 questioned whether Dr Gray is looking at a cooler world.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/nino34SSTMonE120.gif
I support the proposition that it will be an intense hurricane season.

svaethesharks says: June 2, 2011 at 8:37 pm
I am personally getting sick and tired of the snide comments written so far and some before, the scoffs at probability forecasting for tropical cyclones.
I’m afraid these days anyone working on the climate is damned by association. The simple fact is that if climategate had resulted in appropriate punishments and not “vindication”, then after a few week celebrating, us sceptics wouldn’t have had a leg to stand on … the subject had shown that it didn’t tolerate that kind of behaviour and therefore we could trust the rest of them.
The fact that everyone in this subject (and many of the scientific elite) seemed quite happy to tolerate those who “hide the decline”, buddy-review, thwart FOI requests, means that we rightly have begun to believe that everyone behaves that way.

jamadan

savetheshark – you need to chill some. the historical inaccuracy of the hurricane forecasts simply invites ridicule. i appreciate william gray and his skills and that he hasn’t bought into AGW, but let’s face it, they always forecast a more active than normal year and it hasn’t been happening over the past 6 years. i love the ocean and always dreamed of living at the beach growing up, but knowing hurricanes happen, i chose to stay inland a few hundred miles to stay out of the main path of destruction. it was and remains a deliberate choice. anyone who lives on the coast knows (or at least should) the risks involved and prepare accordingly. that they don’t is sad, but the price to pay for being foolish. it makes sense for the government to launch a spring campaign to remind coastal residents of the need to prepare for hurricane season. it even makes sense to use our forecasting technologies and skills to project conditions that might make the year more or less active than usual. but this trying to predict actual numbers of storms and their strengths is just non-sense. we’ve had 6 years of doomsday predictions and nada. that’s actually far more dangerous in that it undermines credibility and causes people to dismiss warnings to prepare. this could be the year it changes and we see a bunch of whoppers hit the US. have new homes built since 2005 been constructed with proper specs to better handle these storms? i hope so. andrew proved to be so destructive because roofs we’re properly anchors and were flying off compromising the integrity of the structures. i pray we don’t find ourselves similarly lax in preparedness the next time we’re tested.

Denier

Chris
June 2, 2011 at 11:48 pm

Neither Sendai nor Joplin were hurricanes. Oh, I know the more hysterical alarmists draw a supposed connection through cAGW, but it is they who are full of your bull****. Keep drinking the Kool-aid, and don’t forget your meds.
Oh, BTW, I think you mean milquetoast. q.v.

Jon

Denier … your callous attack on Chris is uncalled for! He is right in what he says … these probabilities are all about peoples safety!!! What is science supposed to do … sit back and ignore everything because we do not fully understand the systems. If humans followed that approach we would all be living in the stone age!

Gary

In line 3 — “anti-climatic” or “anti-climactic”? Are you saying the forecast opposes average weather?
[Ric> Oops. Fixed. Hmm, I suppose there would be no point in having a forecast if it always predicted the past average.]

Owen

I hate to say it, but all these long range predictions are a tempest in a tea kettle. As long as we keep our surveillance, monitoring and warning networks up to track short term (7 -14 days) development to give people enough warning to evacuate, we have accomplished our public policy responsibilities. These long range predictions are just a part of the “bread and circuses” act to distract people. Weather is a fundamentally chaotic system. Conditions could be ripe for 100 hurricanes to form, but they all could track up the middle of the Atlantic and the only people who would care are the sailors. Or one could form 100 miles off shore, develop quickly and demolish a populated area. Hurricane forecasting is never going to be an exact science, there are just too many unknowns on the initial conditions. It may have some utility in emergency supply budgeting, but even that is suspect. BUT, Hurricane surveillance and monitoring will always save lives.

Even with a high forecast, the forecast ACE value for the NA is still well below 2005.

Larry Geiger

The business of predicting hurricanes is quite humorous. Chris, it doesn’t matter if 6 billion people lived on the east coast of the US. A hurricane prediction in June does no one any good in August. Hee hee. What people really want to know and need to know is, do I have one of these things barreling down on me. And if so, how fast is it coming and in what direction is it aimed.

jcl

Funny, I just heard on the Weather Network the other day they expect “another” busy hurricane season, “just like the last 15 years”…..huh?
“Fogarty adds that an active hurricane season has been the trend for the past 15 years.”
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/storm_watch_stories3&stormfile=hurricane_season_begins_in_t_010611?ref=ccbox_homepage_category1

I’m still trying to figure out how the Japanese Tsunami has anything to do with this thread, beyond a gratuitous display of horrible disaster. The Japanese were blind-sided. People in Hurricane Alley will not be. And while predictions are perhaps over the top because of a certain randomness that we humans cannot account for, once under way, an hurricane can be avoided by getting out of the way. Comparing a tectonic event to a weather event is basically silly, except for one clear point: both events happen, and there is diddly-squat we can do can do to prevent that fact. At least hurricanes give us a bit of warning.

D Johnson

I normally wouldn’t comment on typos, but surely you meant anticlimactic, rather than anti-climatic in the lead paragraph. I usually hear this mistake by sports commentators, where it has nothing to do with climate.
[Ric: Feel free to point out my typos, but did you have to use a sports commentator comparison? 🙂 Fixed (well, I should’ve taken out the ‘-‘ too, but didn’t.]

Denier

@Jon
Ah, diddums.
‘Heat’, ‘stay’ & ‘kitchen’ come to mind for Chris.
As do ‘pot’, ‘black’ & ‘kettle’ for you.
Control yourself (or have you skipped your meds too?).
If we followed the advice given by the scaremongers, we should all be living in the stone age.

Denier

…. except Al Gore, James Cameron and a few other members of the elite (Schnellhuber,et al)

MarkW

What people need to know in order to keep themselves safe has nothing to do with someone’s best guess as to how many hurricanes there will be this year. What they need to know is:
Am I going to be hit?
If so, on what day?
How big will it be?
Such forecasts can be usefull in helping insurance companies know how much money they will need to set aside to pay claims over the next few months. Beyond that, they are mostly a curiosity.

DesertYote

Steve R
June 2, 2011 at 7:12 pm
Isn’t one of the more succesful indicators for Atlantic hurricane prediction 6 months out use dust levels in the subSaharen Sahel region? I thought I remembered reading about something like that.
###
I have also heard of a relationship but without reference to causal direction. One thing I do know, is that Sahel dust is a major factor in coral bleaching on this side of the Atlantic.

crosspatch

“The Sahara is greening”
That will probably reverse now. It had been greening during the great climate shift that started in 1976 but now that we seem to be back into the pre-1976 pattern, it will probably dry out again along the edges and begin to expand.
Generally speaking the Sahara gets wetter when the climate gets warmer. When the climate cools, the Sahara gets dry. During the Holocene climate optimum, the Sahara was apparently much wetter than it is now.

Gary Krause

The forecast is meaningless hype generated by someone who needs to feel good about their occupation. It will save not one life.
Spend the green on moving people off the coast so the rest of us are not paying for their repairs and losses year after year, decade after decade, century after century.

Gary Krause

P.S. As you see, I am not hiding behind a keyboard with a false identity as asserted by some critics who feel the need to dress down those who see the comedy in such forecasting.

BenfromMO

Savethesharks,
I hate to say it, but the snark is called for. I am sorry, but if the other side of this argument is going to go to another level, there is nothing we can do but fight them at that level as well. I hate doing that as much as the next person, but when did honor win a war?
“We have before us an ordeal of the most grievous kind. We have before us many, many long months of struggle and of suffering. You ask, what is our policy? I will say: It is to wage war, by sea, land, and air, with all our might and with all the strength that God can give us; to wage war against a monstrous tyranny never surpassed in the dark, lamentable catalogue of human crime. That is our policy. You ask, what is our aim? I can answer in one word: It is victory, victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory, however long and hard the road may be”
And of course the famous part of the speach:
“We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills”
As you can see the famous Winston Churchill there instilled the thoughts that this war has no honor on either side. Sure, the honor might have been there to start, but it was stripped away by the horrors and attrocities already committed by A. Hitler. We shall fight them at every level, whether it be the lowest beachhead as in the case of flinging mud, or we shall fight them on the highest hill, but no mistake if you do not fight any battle without honor, you will be a honorable corpse and so will your cause.
The warmists have been very successful over the last couple of years since climate-gate by flinging mud. If we do not do the same, we will lose simply because we refuse to defend certain parts of the country because we state that it is not honorable.
There is no honor in defeat though. Sure, we will fight some people who do a great job as scientists, we will poke fun at them, we will above all else irritate just like the warmists who do the same to true scientists who have no trouble telling the truth but then are derided, harrassed and otherwise called names.
If we do not fight the battle at any level they choose, we lose. If we do not take the battle to them, we lose. If we continue to defend scientists who may or may not have an agenda behind their science, what are we but helpless bystanders looking at the sky and WISHING FOR THE BEST. Sorry, that does nothing.
There is no honor in defeat. There is also no honor in defending someone who could very likely be suffering from observer bias as a scientist and could very well be putting out predictions with a false sense of security that AGW is real and that the climate never changes naturally. What are we to do as sceptics after so long has passed since climagate and still the warmists are given money by our respective Governments and people still talk about such brain-dead schemes as carbon trading and cap and trade?
Yes, you are correct that maybe some scientist as in this case might not deserve the derision. But that happens when you are fighting a war for the future of our society. Like it or not, we are all fighting a war. We are fighting against various things, some of us are fighting tooth and nail against energy restrictions and taxes. Some of us are fighting a war for the truth in the science. Some of us are fighting a war against the philosophy that has caused this rot in all of the aforementioned to occur. It does not matter in the end which war we are fighting, make no mistake we are all fighting it. And in war, there is nothing you can do about collateral damage except try your best to minimize it. In this case, the best bet is to show that the said scientist is not making predictions based on glandiose delusions of human-caused climate change. Then prove that this scientist actually realize the truth. Until you show that this scientist is not biased the other way, we must assume that the rot has reached her too.
I also respect work that has been done, but I notice as in the charts above that all the predictions call for a “large hurricane season” with “stronger hurricanes” and “more likely to hit the US.”
That has been the similar prediction as the last 5 years with minor changing to words. Its like they have not even noticed changes in stuff such as ENSO, ocean temperatures, Arctic O., and solar effects.
But I will say this, whether we like it or not, the best predictor of all is that the US is more likely to get hit this hurricane season since the hurricanes tend to track towards the US in a second year la nina situation. In addition, we typically see stronger hurricanes. The number of hurricanes is the one number which has no statistical significance, and by just saying we will “see more hurricanes” they are not doing science but making a guess.
I made a guess too. Although I would change it if it was possible due to a weakening la nina, I stuck to it even though I realize it is probably low by a hurricane or two. 8-10 this year was my original educated “guess”. But we will probably see 2-3 hit the US and the odds are good that one of em can be a monster. I expect 1-2 monsters this year.
So yes, this year is going to be an exceptional year for hurricanes, but we will not see as many smaller ones, most are going to be on the larger side.
The one catch to all of this is the presence of the arctic O. being so strong. I have not see how this effects hurricane generation, and I would hazzard to guess that the pulses might do some strange things as far as that goes. But we shall see.
Live and learn.
Short term prediction of weather is VERY important for our country. Long term predictions is rather pointless for a vast majority of people in the country. If we could accuratly peg a certain week as being good or bad, that would help with vacationing and other such issues, but in the end trends and “a hot summer” are nothing that the common man cares about. Farmers and insurance companies yes. Normal people, no.

Jon

Denier … just out of interest … are you still in high school?

Jim Clarke

G & K are doing science. The scientific method requires the issuance of a prediction. If folks had listened to Gray’s predictions in the late 80s and early 90s, it could have saved this country billions of dollars, but they did not. Instead, due to his vocal stance on the ‘unscientific-ness’ of the AGW crisis, all of his requests for government funding of his tropical climate research were terminated. He had to look elsewhere for the modest funds needed to continue his research, well the likes of Mann and Hansen continued to ride the government funded gravy train.
The bottom line is that G & K are doing legitimate climate research that is already useful for insurance companies and other large entities in making seasonal plans, while not costing the U.S. tax payer a dime. As they refine their methods, the forecast will become more useful. That is one of the benefits of good science.
Meanwhile, the AGW crowd continues to feed at the government trough and has yet to make one prediction that has verified and proved useful to anyone! Most of their ‘predictions’ are proving to be costly for no reason; the opposite of useful.
So cut G & K some slack. They are the type of climate scientists we want and need!

pat

meanwhile, in the Central Pacific: 2011 hurricane season forecast ‘below normal’
http://thegardenisland.com/news/local/article_e0937d1c-8cec-11e0-a82b-001cc4c03286.html

savethesharks says:
June 2, 2011 at 8:37 pm
I am personally getting sick and tired of the snide comments written so far and some before, the scoffs at probability forecasting for tropical cyclones.

It is not the predictions, but the predictability of such predictions that is the problem. When was the last hurricane forecast by Dr. Gray that included the words “lower than normal”? What makes the problem worse is that insurance companies use such predictions to justify rate increases. Without a doubt, Dr. Gray puts much work into his reports, which is to be commended. But what trust can we give him when we already know what the report will say next year?
Regarding Dr. Gray, I have always wondered why someone who does his research at a place that cannot experience a hurricane directly is an expert on hurricanes. There is a difference between book knowledge and experience. This reminds me of Isaac Cline, the meteorologist who in Galveston when the city took a direct hit in 1900. Isaac Cline was born and raised in Tennessee, which never gets hurricanes. He was an excellent meteorologist. In 1899, he was assigned to Galveston. In 1900, he received a wire from Cuba warning that a hurricane was coming toward Texas. Isaac Cline had no experience with hurricanes so he relied on his book knowledge and ignored the warning until it was too late. But the Cubans, with much hurricane experience, were right.
Dr. Gray, like Isaac Cline, is an excellent meteorologist. But there is no substitute for experience. What personal experience does Dr. Gray have with hurricanes? I don’t know. I am not suggesting that Dr. Gray is like Isaac Cline. I just used Isaac Cline to illustrate the difference between knowledge and experience when it comes to hurricanes. I am also saying that if Dr. Gray lived and studied at a place that was hurricane prone he would do a better job only because he would have real world experience that cannot be learned from studying. There is a difference from seeing Jim Cantori of the Weather Channel parading around America blaming this hurricane on humans on TV then actually being in a hurricane personally.