Another tornado outbreak expected

From the NOAA Storm Prediction Center:

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1226 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
   
   ...MAJOR TORNADO AND SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF
   THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...MID MISSISSIPPI...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
   THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS TORNADOES...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...AND
   LARGE HAIL OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...MID
   MISSISSIPPI...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

   
   THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
   
          CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
          CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
          CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
          WESTERN KENTUCKY
          CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI
          NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
          WESTERN TENNESSEE
   
   SURROUNDING THE GREATEST RISK AREA...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
   FROM LOUSIANA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT
   LAKES.
   
   THE STRONG JET STREAM DISTURBANCE IN PART RESPONSIBLE FOR
   YESTERDAY'S TORNADO OUTBREAK IN THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO
   MISSOURI LATER TODAY AND INTO ILLINOIS BY EARLY THURSDAY AS ITS
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE FROM EASTERN KANSAS TO
   NEAR ST LOUIS.
   
   WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW
   WILL UNDERCUT A BAND OF FAST...COOL...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAM
   FLOW.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
   PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 
   OTHER STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OVER A LARGE AREA OF
   MOIST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
   MO...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN
   AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE.
   
   CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   LONG-LIVED ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE FAST-MOVING AND
   POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND. THE STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO AN EXTENSIVE BAND THIS
   EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND... HAIL...AND
   TORNADOES SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
   INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT.
   
   STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
   VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
   REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
   RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
   WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
   
   ..HART.. 05/25/2011
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35 thoughts on “Another tornado outbreak expected

  1. And then the pattern will reload for another outbreak in my neck of the woods on Memorial Day where we’ve already had one touchdown in Minneapolis last weekend. Could be some across NE-IA-northern IL-lower MI Sunday then shifting to the eastern Daks-NE-MN-WI on Monday.

  2. Perhaps that “End of the World” prediction wasn’t wrong. Look at all that Rapturing going on

  3. I do hope everybody gets to “batten down the hatches” and comes through safe and sound.

  4. All we can do is pray, – But if our prayers are no heard, the we l have to act, then why not establish, right now, what that action may or may not be?

  5. New Englanders do not brag about their bad weather. We cite its unpredictability, our little New Hampshire mountain does have the worse weather in the world, year-in-and-year-out, and if you do not like the weather hereabouts, you only need to wait awhile. It’s been 58 years since a major tornado here, true, but it still holds some records, I believe, for duration, length of the track and the like. Just setting the record straight.

  6. So long as the cold pool conveyor is in place, this will continue. I have seen this movie many times before, although this year is unreal in terms of duration.

  7. Warning sirens for tornado warning in Benton, Illinois.

    Funnel cloud over DeSoto, Illinois.

    Funnel Cloud 6 miles northeast of Tamaroa, Illinois

  8. Keep an eye out and be ready to duck and cover, ya’ll.

    No joking or smilies about that. In my neck of the woods, we’re under a watch right now and a few miles up the road they’re under a warning. I think my area is going to get passed by on either side by the strongest cells.

  9. We have live tornadoes on the ground in California. North of Chico and heading NE.
    One was chased by a father and his boy (who was on the phone w/KHSLTV-Chico).
    Trees torn up, barn roofs torn off, tractor damaged, etc. Mostly in farmland.
    1 mile South of Butte College heading towards Table Mountain.

  10. rbateman says on May 25, 2011 at 7:28 pm:

    We have live tornadoes on the ground in California. North of Chico and heading NE.

    So that’s where Anthony has been …

    BTW, listening to TV8 I haven’t heard much (any!) reference to either ‘storm chasers’ or storm spotters – I guess these ‘Northern states’ don’t make much use/any use of that resource (heavy reliance on RADAR and public/law enforcement reports; have they had NWS spotter training like ham radio spotters receive in Texas? Years ago I attended a spotter/Skywarn class given at Mountain View College in Dallas by Alan R. Moller, now retired, from the NWS office in Ft. Worth).

    The stations in DFW will have live camera video from in-car units and a few professional storm chasers as well as these storms unfold in the DFW area.

    Alan Moller tribute – http://www.flame.org/~cdoswell/chasesums/Moller_Tribute/Moller_Tribute.html

    .

  11. This might be of some interest, the historical origins of SKYWARN and associated training (due in no small part to Alan Moller and his work among others):

    Storm Spotting and Public Awareness since the First Tornado Forecasts of 1948

    Authors:
    o CHARLES A. DOSWELL III – NOAA/ERL/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma
    o ALAN R. MOLLER – NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Fort Worth, Texas
    o HAROLD E. BROOKS – NOAA/ERL/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma

    (Manuscript received 23 April 1998, in final form 1 October 1998)

    ABSTRACT (partial excerpt)

    The history of storm spotting and public awareness of the tornado threat is reviewed. It is shown that a downward trend in fatalities apparently began after the famous ‘‘Tri-State’’ tornado of 1925.

    Storm spotting’s history begins in World War II as an effort to protect the nation’s military installations, but became a public service with the resumption of public tornado forecasting, pioneered in 1948 by the Air Force’s Fawbush and Miller and begun in the public sector in 1952.

    The current spotter program, known generally as SKYWARN, is a civilian-based volunteer organization.

    Responsibility for spotter training has rested with the national forecasting services (originally, the Weather Bureau and now the National Weather Service). That training has evolved with (a) the proliferation of widespread film and (recently) video footage of severe storms; (b) growth in the scientific knowledge about tornadoes and tornadic storms, as well as a better understanding of how tornadoes produce damage; and (c) the inception and growth of scientific and hobbyist storm chasing.

    – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

    The paper linked above contains some interesting charts including:

    a) count of tornadoes historically/year (increasing, with a notable jump indicated in the 1950’s. Post WWII modified military RADARa came into use for meteorology before the advent of the dedicated model WSR-57 so-named for its adoption in 1957 as the national standard NWS meteorological RADAR)

    b) fatalities/yr (decreasing) among others.

    .

  12. A good place to keep up on information on the recent tornadoes is a site called Radio Reference.com, police/fire and emergency services. If you have family out there, it is a good place to find and listen for information on their whereabouts. There is also an option to listen to the storm chasers as they chase the tornadoes, but I haven’t picked up any radio chatter on that feed. I guess there are a little busy at the moment.

  13. they were correct.Had a rough windy tornado filled day in Sedalia Missouri. Glad the warning system worked for me.

  14. Anthony,
    What about the twister in your backyard of Chico today? I was hoping for some coverage.
    APE

    REPLY: I happened to be in Sacramento when it happened, unfortunately, and just got home. -A

  15. We are relatively free of tornados in Oz, so we can only imagine the frightening effects and feel for those harmed. Our rarer cyclones are quite a handful also.
    A colleague mentioned he had seen video of a tornado in which a whole large house was lifted and taken once or more around the funnel, reaching an estimated height of about 1,000 ft. Is this an urban myth, or have others seen the footage? If so, I’d appreciate a link because it helps to understand forces better.

  16. I live in Rockford, Illinois. We had a warning a few days ago. On my way to the basement I stuck my head out the front door to listen/look. Scariest thing I have experienced in my life. A tornado sounds like continuous thunder with no “boom”. Fortunately only funnel cloud sightings. No touch downs. Lots of wind, hail, and downed tree branches though.

  17. We even got a couple here in Anthony’s neighborhood yesterday. Small tornadoes touched down in Butte County, Ca at about 6:30pm local time as a strong cell moved west to east over south Chico, Durham and between Oroville and Paradise. The Butte College campus was closed in an effort to keep people safe. This was a pair of very small cells and so far, no reports of damage. KRCA channel 3 out of Sacramento got some good aerial footage from a helicopter of one the tornadoes touching down briefly.

  18. I wonder if the extreme tornado situation this spring might be a delayed consequence of the grand solar minimum of 2008-2010.

  19. We actually do have the Skywarn / spotter training out here. Not sure what the uptake is in terms of #s of folks.

  20. @ Geoff Sherrington:

    Around :40 in this video, an entire structure is lifted up into the tornado. I don’t know about 1,000 feet. That seems like an exaggeration. This structure made it about 50 feet before the wind shredded the thing.

  21. Just this moment watching the beautiful full-colour hi-res hi-fps Nest Cam at Decorah, of 3 bald eagle chicks being fed by Momma, with bright sunshine and a brisk, increasing wind from the SSE. Earlier, the oldest chick (near fledging, almost 2 months old) (older by 1 and 4 days over its siblings), was trying its (huge!) wings, bouncing up and down and bothering the others.

    http://www.farmyou.com/falcon_cams/decorah_eagle_xcel.html

    Enjoy!

  22. P.S. to the above; it’s near the triple junction of Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, on the fringes of the current warnings.

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