Flood ravaged Queensland is preparing for a monstrous South Pacific Ocean Tropical Cyclone Yasi. Forecast to reach Category 4+ strength on the familiar Saffir-Simpson scale, there really is nothing inhibiting this storm from explosively intensifying and reaching 135 knots+ in terms of sustained winds. Ocean heat content below Yasi is high and sufficient to maintain a very intense TC. As the USA deals with the upcoming blizzard with a couple feet of snow forecast for the Midwest, the ongoing Southern Hemisphere summer produces tropical cyclones. In terms of history, Yasi will likely be compared to Cyclone Larry (2006) which made landfall somewhat north of the forecast track of Yasi. However, the circulation of Yasi is considerably larger and, if it maintains it intensity until landfall, could be one of the strongest and largest TCs to make landfall in Australia in the past century.
Forecasting and Predictability note: The ECMWF forecast model has been consistently forecasting a major tropical cyclone near or over Queensland on Feb 3 for the last 7-days: Link to last 14-Forecast Cycles. This demonstration of 10-day TC track skill is quite impressive.
Links to other satellite floaters: Water Vapor, Visible, hourly IR animation of above.
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I live in Cairns where the perpetual global warming is a most pleasant thing one must say. However,
I have more than enough tea bags, sugar and dried milk to see me through.
Camera charged for some footage of the flying cows and other life-forms.
With any luck the grotesque ‘statue’ of Cap’n Cookie will be laid to rest in pieces by the dear….
If only we had a suitably disabling carbon tax then all would be well……
Fairly confident the Gillard will have some new tax waiting to be levied to fix things.
Get ready for “caused by global warming.”
————————
Tropical Cyclones in Queensland
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/cyclones-eastern.shtml
2 cyclones in 3 days, and 3 in 12 months. I’m over them. Wish us well, it’s a biggie.
The most interesting aspect of this impending superstorm is that the Coral Sea SST anomalies over which the storm is tracking are not particularly high. There is an arc of slightly “warm” water (+0.5deg C anomaly) extending from New Caledonia towards the Queensland coast, and this anomaly is best described as being weak. What is “abnormal”, however, is the huge “cool zone” of SST’s in the central equatorial and equatorial and sub-tropical E Pacific, with large parts of this cool tongue displaying anomalies of -2.5deg C. This storm appears to have originated on the SW margin of this huge “cool zone”, near Fiji. It would not be difficult to conclude that this superstorm is originating in that part of the Pacific Ocean displaying relatively cool SST anomalies, and tracking westward over parts displaying very weak warm SST anomalies!
But go to the excellent UNISYS SSTA site http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif
to see for yourself
This will cool down the SSTs a little. A sattellite IR image would be useful, I’m guessing tons of energy will be dumped into the upper atmosphere.
bunkered says:
January 31, 2011 at 1:45 am
That’s great mate, but what about beer, did you stock up on that most important of provisions? Priorities mate, priorities.
Heh. I glanced at the article title, and first read it as “Queensland bracing for monster cyclone. Yes!” I thought that was taking schadenfreude a bit far, but it was just my brain inverting the “i”. Oh, well.
😉
Phaaaark…….forgot…..must be gettin senile.
Just getting in the ute now to the bottlo……
You’re the best baa..Ta mate.
bunkered says:
January 31, 2011 at 1:45 am
I have more than enough tea bags, sugar and dried milk to see me through.
Baa Humbug says:
January 31, 2011 at 2:50 am
That’s great mate, but what about beer, did you stock up on that most important of provisions? Priorities mate, priorities.
Hi guys,
Reminds me of a joke that circulates the southern climes….
Why do Queenslanders drink XXXX?
Because they can’t spell beer! 🙂
In all seriousness, Yasi looks like a biggie, I hope you all stay safe. We might get some of the leftovers down here in Victoria, but nothing like what’s coming your way.
Take care.
Tim
My son and girlfriend from UK are flying into Cairns Tuesday 1st Feb at lunchtime. Can anyone suggest somewhere (hostel or something similar) safe they can sit this storm out for a few days please? I think they’ve a hostel booked for one night, but that’s likely to be far too near the coastline. Cheers anyone who can help.
Ken Stewart says:
January 31, 2011 at 2:19 am
2 cyclones in 3 days, and 3 in 12 months. I’m over them. Wish us well, it’s a biggie.
I hope that you, yours and all other folks thereabout get through unharmed, though it might be an idea to bring the washing in off the line.
PS enjoying having a read at “kenskingdom – A Reality Check on Global Warming”
http://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/
Good luck, trust all goes well.
Best of luck to you, Queenslanders. You’ve had a lot to cope with in the last few weeks — you really don’t need another cyclone just now.
It’s just weather.
Not one but two tropical cyclones to hit Queensland.
The first one – a mere bagatelle compared to the next one – Yasi – on it’s way has crossed the northern coast into the interior of Australia and will make it’s way down to the southern states.
In the most southern state of Australia there is an ocean of water slowly making it’s way across a vast area of farmland which will end up at the sea. This ocean of water is fall out from the last Queensland event of over two weeks ago. It will take another two months before it arrives at the sea outlet -in the meantime small cities, hamlets and towns will be inundated.
The first of the these new cyclones will start to add to this ocean tomorrow. The second monster cyclone will arrive over the coming weekend.
This is more than 2000 miles from landfall.
Your headline Queensland bracing for major tropical cyclone Yasi should also include the rest of the eastern seaboard of Australia.
A news Australian report tonite included an interview with an old Victorian (Australian mainland most southern state) farmer. He stated that in 1956 his farmhouse was isolated by floodwater’s for 5 months. At the present time it’s estimated that his farm will be isolated for 2 months. However with these new cyclones he reckons the 1956 record might be broken.
We all have families over there. You are in our prayers and thoughts.
Proudly South African
It’d be interesting to see why TC’s Anthony and Bianca fizzed out (Bianca moreso). Low SST? After all, a cylone has to continue getting its energy from somewhere. ISTR other tropical storms leaving a “visible” track of cold ocean surface behind them.
One of the ideas I play with is the size of bomb it would take to snuff out a cyclone, dropping the device from high altitude into the “eye”, the detonation’s pressure wave to disrupt the vertical flow of air permanently. Obviously this sort of thing would have to be done over open water and there’s no guarrantee that a TC won’t re-form shortly thereafter.
Predicted landfall of category 4 cyclone into the same area that caused previous flooding with even the politicians warning of devastation and still the dams are at 100% water usage levels.
I wish you all the best over the coming week and hope you all come through it ok.
Ryan,
For the last 12 months or so the BOM predicted tracks have been rather good – to say the least.
However, before that the performance was perhaps best described as sub-optimal.
What changed?
Yasi looks bad. We are all in a period not experienced for at least 210 years. A lot were caught out in the recent Qld floods as well as the Victorians during Black Saturday.
Heed the warning and prepare to move to higher ground and batten down if you are in the storm track. We have had enough loss.
Jimbo Says “Get ready for “caused by global warming.””
No one weather event can be said to be caused by global warming. What can be said though is that…
Floods in Pakistan, Queensland, Victoria, Brazil, Sri Lanka, Philipines, New South Wales.
Heatwaves in Russia, north eastern US and Central Europe. In fact 18 countries set new record highs in 2010.
Record blizzards and storms throughout the US and Europe.
should certainly indicate to skeptics that something abnormal is going on and that there is probably a little bit of human induced climate change in all weather events as it intensifies and shifts the normal patterns. That is if you are truly skeptics…
Ouch! That will leave a mark….
I mean Queensland obviously has not had enough this summer, so the weather gods are giving it a beating.
Interesting. I wonder what would happen if a tropical storm crossed the equator? I realize steering currents prb’ly wouldn’t allow it, but would it just dissipate ’cause of the reversed Coriolis force?
Michael at 6:02 am:
“Floods …. Heatwaves in Russia, north eastern US …. 18 countries set new record highs in 2010 … Record blizzards and storms throughout the US and Europe…. should certainly indicate to skeptics that something abnormal is going on.”
More floods? Well certainly we can assume that flood reporting is better today than it was in 1911 or 1811 or 1511 AD or 311 BC. But as for there being “more floods” than at any other time in the past, ever…. well, that would be debatable.
Your cite of “heatwaves” and other temperature record phenomena is equally dubious, since even the contemporary temperature record is scientifically flawed and in serious scientific dispute. In fact it is the record itself and the atrocious data collection/handling/manipulation “methods” that are the essence of the skeptic position. So again just putting some rhetorical flourishes around that fundamental problem does not strengthen your “obvious” temperature examples.
Lastly, your “record blizzards and storms” is just plain silly, since your “record” is only ~150 years (at best case) and hence a laughably microscopic and unrepresentative sample of global climate history.
Michael says:
January 31, 2011 at 6:02 am
“should certainly indicate to skeptics that something abnormal is going on….”
Yep! And you missed out that my cat crapped in the rhubarb bed due to frozen earth caused by global warming.
Why, even the animals aren’t safe from Co2 induced global warming in all it’s manifestations.
*****
Bernd Felsche says:
January 31, 2011 at 4:43 am
One of the ideas I play with is the size of bomb it would take to snuff out a cyclone, dropping the device from high altitude into the “eye”, the detonation’s pressure wave to disrupt the vertical flow of air permanently. Obviously this sort of thing would have to be done over open water and there’s no guarantee that a TC won’t re-form shortly thereafter.
*****
/Imagination mode
Energy equivalence is the issue. The bomb would need to be near the total energy of the storm-area affected of the bomb to counteract it (dropping it in the descending-air center to cause an updraft there) . Without doing any math, I’d bet the bomb would need to be a hundred megatons to have an effect. The amount of radioactive fallout from such a huge fusion/fission bomb would be a bit problematic….
An antimatter bomb w/little radioactive by-products would be the best choice. 🙂