Breaking: Japan refuses to extend Kyoto treaty at Cancun

Japan in 1997:

Image: Adopt a negotiator, who had an interesting prediction - click

Japan today:

Cancún climate change summit: Japan refuses to extend Kyoto protocol

Talks threatened with breakdown after forthright Japanese refusal to extend Kyoto emissions commitments

* John Vidal guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 1 December 2010 18.16 GMT

Japan refuses to extend Kyoto protocol. ‘The forthrightness of the statement took people by surprise,’ said one British official

The delicately balanced global climate talks in Cancún suffered a serious setback last night when Japan categorically stated its opposition to extending the Kyoto protocol – the binding international treaty that commits most of the world’s richest countries to making emission cuts.

The Kyoto protocol was adopted in Japan in 1997 by major emitting countries, who committed themselves to cut emissions by an average 5% on 1990 figures by 2012.

However the US congress refused to ratify it and remains outside the protocol.

The brief statement, made by Jun Arima, an official in the government’s economics trade and industry department, in an open session, was the strongest yet made against the protocol by one of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases.

He said: “Japan will not inscribe its target under the Kyoto protocol on any conditions or under any circumstances.”

The move came out of the blue for other delegations at the conference.

more at the Guardian

=========================================================
Reality bites, when Japan says something so blunt, you know they mean it – Anthony

h/t to WUWT reader Steve (Paris)

UPDATE: I’ve made this a “sticky” to stay at the top of WUWT awhile – Anthony

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272 Responses to Breaking: Japan refuses to extend Kyoto treaty at Cancun

  1. jeremy says:

    So the country that hosted that farce now rejects it. Can you get a better example of rejection of this political agenda?

  2. R Taylor says:

    To what delicate balance does the Grauniad refer? Whether or not the delegates can maintain a shred of dignity as the farce unfolds?

  3. Vince Causey says:

    Kyoto has achieved precisely nothing. Even if you were a rabid believer in AGW catastrophism, it is obvious that there is absolutely no point in continuing. The EU will continue to offset their emissions to enable business as usual. Japan has merely stated the obvious.

  4. Dave D says:

    Very well said, Japan! They are waking up and smelling the cherry blossoms.

  5. CodeTech says:

    Good for Japan!

    Not that it’s likely, but wouldn’t it be awesome if the rest of the attending countries would do the same? I mean, in my ideal fantasy world they ALL stand up, admit the whole thing is a load of crap, and go home.

  6. Shytot says:

    Good on them – I believe that they are following through on what Dr Kiminori Itoh started in June last year.

    Such a forthright statement from a country like Japan really is one in the eye for the alarmists.

    Looks like Canada may have to hand back it’s Fossil prize !!!

  7. Daniel M says:

    What sound does the first domino make?

  8. Sean Peake says:

    Cue music: Fugue in G minor

  9. Jimbo says:

    Breaking: Japan refuses to extend Kyoto treaty at Cancun

    And the signs were there just a week ago:

    Reuters – November 25, 2010
    Japan says extending Kyoto pact is “meaningless”
    “European countries from this year have proposed that it could be okay to extend the commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol if it is joined by major emitters, but we have made clear that this is not acceptable,” Minamikawa told a news conference.

    “Even if the issue of extending the Kyoto Protocol becomes a major item on the agenda in Cancun and Japan finds itself isolated, Japan will not agree to this.”.
    http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFTOE6AO01G20101125

  10. Steve Keohane says:

    From the Guardian:
    “If it proves to be a new, formal position rather than a negotiating tactic, it could provoke a walk-out by some developing countries and threaten a breakdown in the talks.”
    One can only hope.

  11. Nuke says:

    Kyoto was/is worthless if the goal is too actually make a difference in AGW. Just run the climate models with Kyoto and without Kyoto. The difference is negligible.

    So what’s it really about then? Redistribution of wealth, perhaps? A signatory gets to send their factories and jobs to Asia and China, India, et al, get to pollute instead?

  12. Bob Tisdale says:

    Daniel M says: “What sound does the first domino make?”

    Thanks.

  13. Sean Peake says:

    @ Daniel M: riffing a bit
    If a domino falls in Cancun, does it make a sound? Ummm… Yes, one that can be heard around the world

  14. James Sexton says:

    Sean Peake says:
    December 2, 2010 at 8:43 am

    Cue music: Fugue in G minor
    =======================================================
    Strange, but the music running through my head was Judy Garland and a bunch of Munchkins. Although our warmist friends may instead prefer a piece from Chopin.

  15. Sonicfrog says:

    Wow! Not a lot of wiggle room there! I guess the Japanese got ticked that they didn’t win any of the “Fossil Of The Year’ awards, and are trying to make a bold, early run for next years contest!

  16. Sean says:

    Japan got the short end of the stick in the Kyoto protocol. It is one of the most energy efficient industrial powers yet it’s paying for carbon credits from the Ukraine (eastern Europe and the USSR under the Soviets were extraordinarily inefficient). The participants keep raising the spector of the USA and China but the baseline year of 1990 is also a factor. Japan aggressive pursued energy efficiency in the decade after the oil shock of the 1970’s so the low hanging fruit was gone by 1990. Europe on the other hand and a re-unified Germany in particular had knew they had a lot of excess credits from the inefficiency of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact nations. In 1997 when the treaty was hammered out Europe took advantage of this fact. Its no surprise that the country that did all the right things for all the wrong reasons (energy security vs. climate) but prior to an arbitrary date says enough is enough. Kyoto was deeply flawed and these flaws hit Japan harder than any other country. Add to this that China has surpassed Japan as the 2nd largest economy in the world but its still classified as a developing nation plus the clear signal from the US that it is also in not going to sign any kind of continuation of the Kyoto Treaty, the only thing surprising is that Japan did not get to this position much sooner.

  17. Malaga View says:

    And in related news: Turkeys vote to postpone Christmas….

  18. tarpon says:

    I wonder why the Cancun-con doesn’t embrace nuclear power?

  19. Malaga View says:

    You know it makes sense: Just say NO to KYOTO… and you can exhale now…

  20. PhilJourdan says:

    Japan has a ring side seat with the worst poluter in the world – China. Any extension of Kyoto would hamstring the Japanese economy just as China is burgeoning. The Japanese did not build an economic empire on stupidity.

  21. pRadio says:

    Many times on this site I read about things like 350, 10:10 and others that really depress me about the lack of intelligence (pure stupidty) thats out there. But when I read things like this story it’s very uplifting and gratifying and makes me feel all fuzzy and warm.
    Thank you Anthony!

  22. crosspatch says:

    While Trondheim, Norway sees the coldest temperatures recorded in over 200 years.
    Berlin is calling for -20C next week. It is freezing in the UK.

    http://www.storm.no/nyheter/kulderekorden-ble-knust-3353713.html

    I think Japan figures we can use all the CO2 we can get right about now!

  23. Jeff Norman says:

    “Kyoto has achieved precisely nothing.”

    I don’t think this is true at all. The Kyoto Treaty achieved all sorts of things but similar to many climate models the original drafters of the agreement got the sign wrong. “Ohhh, it was a negative forcing all along, I guess we missed that one.”

    Here are the top ten things achieved by Kyoto.

    1. It got a Japanese city into the news for something other than earthquakes.
    2. It provided the environmental movement with a new cause celeb.
    3. It gave Bjorn Lomborg something to write about.
    4. It provided the confidence to write e-mails outlining attempts to hijack science.
    5. It legitimized the IPCC process.
    6. It started the Chicago carbon exchange.
    7. It allowed Michael Mann to rewrite clime history.
    8. It allowed an Indian train engineer to start his own businesses.
    9. It brought Phil Jones’ work to the forefront of scientific thought on climate.
    10. It bought Al Gore a front row seat on the global warming bandwagon.

  24. Tamara says:

    I like it. “No means no” in diplo-speak.

  25. latitude says:

    Who writes this wordy ethereal crap anyway?
    Cut to the chase, “Japan cans it”

    Who in their right mind would pay someone to do something
    that they are not allowed to do, in the first place?

  26. Steve Oregon says:

    I think the better headline is

    Kyoto drops Kyoto

  27. Baa Humbug says:

    Malaga View says:
    December 2, 2010 at 9:01 am

    And in related news: Turkeys vote to postpone Christmas….

    Hey don’t laugh, my local RSPCA asked me to take in a rescued turkey a few weeks ago. Belonged to an unkind person apparantly.

    Mr Bojangles is his name now, and Xmas is definately cancelled for him. (but I might make him a carrot and corn cake)

  28. Fred says:

    That Global Warming Gravy & Fame Train is derailing faster than the bottom is falling out of the carbon trading market.

    A fine wreck to sit back and watch . . . the debris pile will be topped off with the shattered credibility of the global environmental movement.

  29. John from CA says:

    PhilJourdan says:
    December 2, 2010 at 9:06 am

    Japan has a ring side seat with the worst poluter in the world – China. Any extension of Kyoto would hamstring the Japanese economy just as China is burgeoning. The Japanese did not build an economic empire on stupidity.

    ======
    Exactly, why would they sign a legally binding agreement when China and India aren’t willing to do so.

  30. Peter Walsh says:

    Daniel M says:
    December 2, 2010 at 8:40 am

    What sound does the first domino make?

    No sound whatsoever.

    We are surrounded by global warming here in Ireland.

    We call it SNOW!

  31. PJB says:

    So, Japan is in the pay of Big-oil! They will be happy to learn that.

  32. M White says:

    “Kyoto has achieved precisely nothing.”

    11 It enabled governments to increase taxes for no good reason

    If you want to inform the BBC that the whole of the northern hemisphere is approaching its winter season-

    “Lethal cold weather grips northern Europe”

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11895107

    Have you been affected by the heavy snowfall? You can send us your experiences using the form below.

  33. Gord Richmond says:

    Will Stephane Dion be renaming his dog, or will he simply have the poor thing euthanized?

  34. Tony B (another one) says:

    Interesting to see just how little mention of Cancun is evident on the BBC website. You have to really dig to find anything on “the sombre news”. Contrast with the hype of 1 year ago, when the BBC had 200+ personnel chanting the mantra in the snows of Copenhagen.

    This year the 200 seem to be reporting the unseasonably cold and snowy conditions around the UK, instead. I find it really amusing to see that the reporters dotted around in the freezing wastes, all consistently dressed in their “North Face” jackets (I wonder how much that publicity is worth), are almost to a man (and woman) not wearing hats, which is just bonkers in these conditions. I suppose hats are banned, as they might indicate that someone has planned for the global cooling phase that we are so clearly in.

    At least the woman reporting from the Scottish location (I have forgotten its name – so surprised that BBC has not made a big deal of it….) with the coldest temperatures ever recorded in the UK has been given permission to wear one. Got to thank ‘Ealth and Safetee’ for something I suppose.

  35. Judd says:

    I would love to, love to, love to believe that this signals the beginning of the end but there is a huge industry behind AGW that will not walk quietly into the night. Drive from Chicago to Omaha through Iowa or to North Dakota through Minnesota. It’s astonishing. From 2007 to 2010 those wind farms have bred like rabbits. Forests of them and oversize load truck after truck carrying components to erect more of them. I fear all these progenitors will not wish to be easily embarrassed.

  36. Robert says:

    Oh i would love to see those faces now of flag waving girls and boys who organise “the fossil of the year award”. For them it must be Pearl Harbour all over again.

  37. Steve in SC says:

    I love it when a plan comes together!

  38. Perry says:

    So far, only the Guardian has latched on to this story, but that could be because of this quote at Wikipedia, under the heading “Journalists working for Russian intelligence services”:

    Oleg Gordievsky commented on the newspaper: “The KGB loved the Guardian. It was deemed highly susceptible to penetration”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Guardian

    Let us hope that the Guardian is reporting pravda.

  39. Tenuc says:

    A dose of realism is pervading the Cancun talks which are no longer about climate change. It is now all about redistributing the wealth of the world by replacing our current monetary system with one based on carbon emission.

    Unfortunately for the ruling elite (the old monied puppet masters of the UN), the plan could only work if 80% of the population of the world was willing to sacrifice their freedom to ‘save the world’, but they were too slow to get governments to agree to binding treaties before climate oscillated back into cold mode again.

    Here in Sunny Sussex on the south coast of England we are ‘enjoying’ 16″ of global warming, and few people I know believe in the CAGW meme. We now need to be watchful for the next attempt to foist a world government upon us and be prepared to defend against it as we have with climate change.

  40. David says:

    Excellent news…! Mind you – nobody ever seemed to read Kyoto, because all the politicians kept on about CO2 (can be taxed, see…) when Kyoto always talked about reducing greenhouse gases as CO2 EQUIVALENT…
    Anyway – we live in interesting times, folks…

  41. Mike Haseler says:

    Japan … renowned for the high quality of their products … must have taken one look at the rubbish coming out of the CRU and decided that it couldn’t put it’s name to anything based on such poor quality work.

  42. Zorro says:

    Scamcoon is dead!!!

  43. Robinson says:

    I’m loving the fact it’s the Guardian reporting it. I imagine (although I haven’t visited the article) that there’s a lot of hypocritical piety in the comments section!

  44. Henry chance says:

    They are closer to getting nuked over this than N Korea is for it’s recent stunts.

    All the greenie talk and luv for all things Chinese. Japan was the second largest economy in the world. It still is very close to #2.
    Japan is showing a little leadership.

  45. Alex the skeptic says:

    So that’s what Cancun was all about, pulling the plug on the life support machine.
    When is the funeral?
    Will Obama and other (rolling) heads of state be attending? No they cannot, most of them are snow bound at the moment, and according to Piers Corbyn, we have it like this till end of February with record lows and snows never seen before.
    This follows last winter’s record land snow cover, northern hemisphere.
    The Cancunians can at least enjoy the sun; wait a minute, let me check the weather there; oh, its rainy all the way. Pity.

  46. Alex the skeptic says:

    Global Climate Disruption has been disrupted at Cancun by the Kyotoans.
    So what’s next? Ocean acidification? Global Oxygen Depletion?

  47. Justa Joe says:

    Jeff Norman says:
    Here are the top ten things achieved by Kyoto.
    ———————————————————-

    You omitted one of the greatest benefits of Kyoto. It gave the the Int’l left a vehicle to bash America in generaL and Bush specifically even though Clinton already signed Kyoto, which the Senate never ratified. (the left never let facts get in the way of effective propaganda).

    So will everyone now vindicate the USA since Kyoto is demonstrably the joke that we all knew that it was?

  48. Wade says:

    tarpon says:
    December 2, 2010 at 9:02 am

    I wonder why the Cancun-con doesn’t embrace nuclear power?

    Because that would lead to prosperity for developed nations. Can’t be having that! The goal is, not about saving the environment, but about bringing down the so-called developed nations. And I personally believe the goal for the UN is to give them sovereignty over all other nations.

  49. Ray says:

    Japan is the the most advanced technocracy in the world. There is no way they will accept to give away their “toys” and lifestyle to the third world via this fraudulent scheme.

  50. jimb from Canada says:

    Well for year alarmists have screamed we must change before we hit a tipping point!

    Now that I believe we’ve hit that tipping point, I know what they ment, and that were so worried we would see it happen.

    We all need to push a little more to help the tipping point called “the truth”, finally jump over the hurdle.

    Speaking of Japan, I wonder if Al Gore knows what Seppuku is? Considering hes a politican and lawyer, I doubt it.

  51. Bill Marsh says:

    Have any Kyoto signatories actually reduced CO2 emissions?

  52. Casper says:

    Good heavens! It’s a miracle!

  53. An Inquirer says:

    “Kyoto has achieved precisely nothing.” Au contraire.
    In addition to what has been previously mentioned:
    11. Facilitated the shift of heavy industry from Western Europe to India, China and elsewhere.
    12. Transferred funds from Europe to developing countries for dubious carbon reduction projects.
    13. Increased HFC-22 and its byproduct HFC-23 (ozone depleting gases).
    14. Induced Enron, GE, and others to become significant contributors to the Democrat Party.
    15. Revealed how corrupt a carbon trading system would be.
    16. Undermined prospects for healthy economic growth in the United Kingdom.
    17. Confirmed how bad negotiators U.S. has. (Dates and methodologies helped others, not U.S.)
    18. Removed any sense of respect for the Nobel Peace Prize.
    19. Detoured the environmental movement away from real environmental movement.
    20. Pointed out the amazing wisdom in Eisenhower’s farewell speech.

  54. John from CA says:

    OT: Amazing image of the UK covered in snow.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-11901718

  55. FerdinandAkin says:

    Japan is a country with few resources. They exist primarily on their skill and ingenuity in importing raw materials and exporting products for a profit. They have built their economy from ruin after WWII to a first class world power today. The Japanese pursue any advantage they can exploit to advance their economy.

    The Kyoto Treaty was once view in Japan as placing burden on their competition, but now is view as a complete loser for all parties concerned. Supporting Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming has gone from a financial positive to a financial negative, and the Japanese are abandoning it as quickly as they can.

    When the influential and powerful pull their money out of a movement, it soon retreats to the shadows. CAGW has lost its unquestioned dominance of environmental affairs. CAGW will soon be regulated down to a basement office next to the one occupied by the Great UFO Conspericy.

  56. kwik says:

    An Inquirer says:
    December 2, 2010 at 10:39 am

    21. Make 38 billion Danish Kroners to disappear. Ask Connie Hedengaard.

    Cancun, Obamas Pearl Harbour.

  57. Malaga View says:

    Baa Humbug says:
    December 2, 2010 at 9:20 am
    Hey don’t laugh, my local RSPCA asked me to take in a rescued turkey a few weeks ago. Belonged to an unkind person apparantly.

    Guess the RSPCA will have to launch a Christmas Appeal this year as there are 22,000 mammalian AGW gravy trainers in serious distress in Cancun… but if you decide to adopt one of these poor sunburnt AGW gravy trainers then please remember: AGW gravy trainers are for life – not just Christmas.

  58. ShrNfr says:

    @Sean Peake Are you implying that we are going to get Bach to reality?

  59. Darkinbad the Brightdayler says:

    Its so obviously dead in the water.
    They probably felt that Kyoto was getting a bad name simply by association.
    Why tie themselves to the tortoise economies when they have the tigers for neighbours?

  60. Mike says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Japan said it won’t help extend the Kyoto Protocol accord to curb greenhouse-gas emissions after its targets expire in 2012, urging instead work on a new global agreement to combat climate change.

    The Kyoto treaty is “outdated” because it only regulates 27 percent of global emissions, Kuni Shimada, special adviser to Japanese Environment Minister Ryu Matsumoto, said yesterday in an interview at United Nations climate talks in Cancun, Mexico.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-30/world-shouldn-t-wait-for-u-s-resolution-on-climate-agreement-japan-says.html

  61. Gary Pearse says:

    The delegates were whooping it up the other day according to a video of dancing, drinking and pigging out. I guess this is the hangover.

  62. bubbagyro says:

    We all want progress, but if you’re on the wrong road, progress means doing an about-turn and walking back to the right road; in that case, the man who turns back soonest is the most progressive.
    —C. S. Lewis

  63. Malaga View says:

    FerdinandAkin says:
    December 2, 2010 at 10:45 am
    Japan is a country with few resources.

    You might not be saying that in the next few years…. Clathrate To Production http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/11/30/clathrate-to-production/

  64. Enneagram says:

    jeremy says:
    December 2, 2010 at 8:33 am

    So the country that hosted that farce now rejects it. Can you get a better example of rejection of this political agenda?
    You are implying that Japan did not act truthfully. No, I think oriental people think not for the “minute” but they use “Lang Tong” (long sight): They surely thought: “What is the use of opposing it if they are so convinced….we’ll change it in a few years”
    I saw an interview, during one of the APEC’s summits: A journalist asked China’s President what did he opine about his country “communist revolution”, referring to the great capitalist development of the last years; to what he responded that it has passed more than two hundred years of the French Revolution and we still did not know its results. That was really meaningful!. This is real as we are now questioning those principles of “Liberté, Egalité, Fraternité”as opposed to fruitful individualism.

  65. Steve (Paris) says:

    Am I honoured! A hat tip from Anthony

  66. Sun Spot says:

    Here in Canada the MSM is not reporting on Cancun, nothing, nada, not a mention on the CBC (normally the CBC is vocally alarmist) or the Liberal Toronto Star ! Whats going on or have I missed something.

  67. ZT says:

    Looks like someone forgot to pass out the pedometers to the attendees from Japan.

  68. Stephen Brown says:

    @Sean Peake says:
    December 2, 2010 at 8:43 am
    Cue music: Fugue in G minor

    I prefer this piece by Chopin. I consider it to be quite appropriate.

  69. oMan says:

    From Kyoto to Cancun
    The party boat cruised on,
    But at the vote
    It ceased to float;
    The Japanese were gone.

    They’d lost too many yen
    To climate salesmen
    Whose tales of fear
    Are stale beer;
    Cancun no longer cons.

  70. Wilky says:

    Ah, so! Japan decided not to commit economic Hari Kari and hand over the reins of economic prosperity to China! Bravo!!!!

  71. AdrianS says:

    I think this is very interesting. The Japanese are careful clever people so they wont be doing this for the fun of it.
    For all our UK people havent the BBC gone deadly quiet about Cancun with the recent record breaking cold temps?
    Normally they would have been banging the AGW drum till your ears bled.
    The BBc are sly f…% ers to they will regroup and classify the UK’s current record breaking cold temps as a sign of “Climate Change”

  72. j ferguson says:

    Anthony,
    Watt are you going to do for fun if this whole stupid thing evaporates, due no doubt to global warming?

    If this thing reverts to a scientific interest and not a political imperative, the science might clean up all by itself and we might then all go on to the next apocalypse du jour.

  73. Josualdo says:

    It is acceptable to expect that the BRIC countries and South Africa, and the US, still won’t have it either. If only the EU were sensible! But they keep spending zillions promoting CAGW.

  74. Engchamp says:

    ” CAGW will soon be regulated down to a basement office next to the one occupied by the Great UFO Conspericy”
    I think you mean, Ferdinand Akin, the great UNO (+EU, WWF, Greenpeace etc) conspiracy, and I do so wish that were true.

  75. Gary Hladik says:

    Great news!

    Now if we can only get California to follow…

  76. GregO says:

    Just say no to Kyoto. Love it.

    Here’s a joke.

    What’s the difference between a politician and a lady?
    If a lady says “No” she means “Maybe”; if she says “Maybe” she means “Yes”; but if she says “Yes” she isn’t a lady.

    If a politician says “Yes” he means “Maybe”; if he says “Maybe” he means “No”; but if he says “No” he’s not a politician.

    If the Japanese said “No”; I believe they meant “Heck No”; or possibly even “Hecky-Darn No”.

  77. Skeptical statistician says:

    I see the UN sponsered department the World Meteorological Organisation is claiming 2010 was the hottest year on record for “some regions of earth” as dutifully reported by the BBC’s chief climate change propogandist Richard Black.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-11903397

    Of course the first thing one concludes from the WMO’s media release, and the unquestioning copy taken by the BBC’s ‘journalist’ (more like activist) is that the WMO would say that wouldn’t they? It’s in their interest to stay in existence, so I’m guessing we’re going to be hearing lots more “this year is worse than last year” statements from them. Notably the only vacancy they have is for a “Programme Manager: Communications and Media Relations” – figures.

  78. Lance says:

    the rats are abandoning the ship…

  79. Philip Finck says:

    Not one comment from a warmist…….. Their hands are probably too cold to type.

  80. Keith says:

    This is the beginning of the end of what was the new beginning…

    I spotted this a day ago, it does look like their goose is cooked; Cancun will go down in history as the place where Kyoto ended.

  81. Robinson says:

    Normally they would have been banging the AGW drum till your ears bled.

    Well, there was a lecture on BBC 2 last night, given by Prof Brian Cox, where he banged on about peer review and how important it is to not be “impartial” when it comes to science coverage. He talked about the science of climate change as something that shouldn’t be disputed, because of all the peer reviewed work in its favour.

    But of course as we know, “peer review” in Physics (Cox’s area) is a very different beast to peer review in Climate Science.

  82. e. c. cowan says:

    Speaking of CANCUN: this article appeared at Human Events
    http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=40320
    Phony Claims Infest Cancun Climate Conference
    says in part:
    ‘……Claim One: A four-degree rise in global temperature is likely to occur during the 21st Century.
    Let’s mow down the first claim first. I drive this point home in my book, Climategate, and the global whiners loath it: Since 1850—the beginning of the Industrial Revolution—the Earth’s average surface temperature has risen only .7o Celsius (just a bit more than one degree Fahrenheit). Point-seven degrees Celsius in 160 years—that’s all. And this minuscule temperature increase coincided with the proliferation of the train, car, truck and even the lawnmower and leaf blower. Oh, and the bulk of this warming occurred before 1940. ………’

  83. 1DandyTroll says:

    I’m on Japan on this one. It’s like sean says above they got the short end of the stick alright.

    I don’t know if it has any correlation but it is somewhat interesting to note that when Japan ratified the protocol their economy never recovered and has spiraled downwards ever since, while on the other hand China has taken longer and faster economical leaps than economists thought possible.

    If India had had Chinas amount of coal reserves I bet my cent that India would have taken much bigger leaps as well since western world industry wouldn’t have put everything in China so to speak.

  84. Keith says:

    BTW looks like someone wants to set up a team of inspectors to jet set around the globe and double check everybody is reporting their carbon emissions correctly… Now what does this say about what is currently happening??

  85. Leon Brozyna says:

    Cancun going the way of Copenhagen. Good.

    And from here on the lee of Lake Erie where there’s a band (about ten miles wide) of lake effect snow measured in feet, could use some of that global warming.

  86. Colin from Mission B.C. says:

    An early Christmas present from the Japanese people!

  87. keith at hastings uk says:

    Hope this does mark the beginning of the end, but we are still being deluged with pro AGW stuff here in the UK.
    E.g. Dr Vicky Pope of the Met Office reported as going on about how warm 2010 was/will be; how all the independent data sets show this and NASA may show it the warmest ever; UK cold winters only a regional and minor issue, warming still going on, even if affected by variations such as minor La Nina, Asian aerosols, etc.
    They aren’t giving up yet. And UK has a Law stipulating massive reduction – 80% I think – in CO2 by some early date, like 2030 or 50. (So cold here in my heat leaky 1750 house that I can’t recall)

  88. pat says:

    guardian were first up with this story approx 24 hours ago and, so far, nothing on google from bbc, nyt, WaPo, Uk Tele.
    richard black hasn’t done a report since the 29th nov. in fact, very little MSM.

    there are more results for:

    3 Dec: HindustanTimes: Chetan Chauhan: US, China close in on carbon accord
    The first positive signal emerged from the Cancun climate summit when China agreed to international verification of its carbon emission control measures, a long-standing demand of the US. India, which has been toeing the Chinese line, is likely to accept international verification of its domestic actions, a contentious topic in country’s domestic politics…
    “We have no problem with MRV,” Su Wei, China’s chief negotiator said. “Both countries (US and China) would like to promote the progress and emerge from Cancun with a deal.”…
    http://www.hindustantimes.com/US-China-close-in-on-carbon-accord/Article1-633693.aspx

    2 Dec: AP: Arthur Max: US, China move closer on key climate issue
    Nonetheless, analysts said an understanding on measuring emissions would be an important step that could help break the long-standing deadlock on reducing pollutants that scientists say have caused global temperatures to steadily rise over recent decades.
    The World Meteorological Organization is due to present data Thursday on worldwide temperatures this year, and scientists say they expect 2010 to turn out to match the hottest years on record…
    Kathrin Gutman, who follows the talks for the World Wildlife Fund, said an agreement on verification would be an important piece of a deal that could “unlock the larger discussion” on emissions reductions…
    http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2010/12/02/us_china_move_closer_on_key_climate_issue/?rss_id=Boston.com+%2F+Boston+Globe+–+National+News

    not time to celebrate yet, but kyoto abandoning kyoto is a good start.

  89. Alan Simpson not from Friends of the Earth says:

    Tokyo to Beijing and New Delhi; ” Get your F***ing hands of my wallet! “.

    India and China are saying if they don’t get their bribes it is a deal breaker, you would have to have a heart of stone not to laugh.

  90. frederik wisse says:

    The postponement of christmas by turkey has become definite , finally joseph admitted it .

  91. Juraj V. says:

    No mention in our news. But this time no news=good news.

  92. Fremma says:

    I need some help here. I don’t usually have difficulty translating bureaucrat-speak but I’m struggling with Mr Arima’s statement: “Japan will not inscribe its target under the Kyoto protocol on any conditions or under any circumstances.”

    How is this consistent with “Japan refuses to extend Kyoto treaty”? Is this some new meaning of the word “inscribe” that I have not previously encountered? Does it work better in Japanese?

    Or is there some sort of monument at Cancun that is under attack by an army of diplomats with chisels?

    Just asking.

  93. AntiAcademia says:

    Wow!! Tokyo drops Kyoto! Just awesome! Thanks to all those blogs that destroyed co2 pseudoscience!

  94. Cold Englishman says:

    All those free flights to exotic places for the ‘Canutes’ in East Anglia. How sad for them.
    It used to be Kyoto, Rio, Bali, Copenhagen, Cancun……….hmm. Next year Norwich.. just doesn’t have the same ring about it does it?

    Those lovely seaside sunsets on the taxpayer, gone forever. How sad.
    You know, God really does do irony. It snowed in October in England two years ago as they debated The Climate Change Bill, we had Climategate for Copenhagen, and now UK totally Bu****rd up with snow in November. I just wonder if any of our rulers have got the ‘ears to hear’, or more necessarily the courage to call STOP as the Japanese have done.

  95. pat says:

    should have said richard black hasn’t done a report about cancun since 29 nov, but of course he’s been spinning the hottest year story (2 Dec):

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-11903397

  96. Al Gored says:

    But… but… what about the children!!!!

    The eco-crisis industry will not be amused by this. Expect non-stop campaigning on the evils of Japanese whaling or ANYTHING anti-Japanese they can invent in an attempt to extort them back into line.

  97. Derek says:

    From, (as linked to earlier by Mike says: December 2, 2010 at 10:59 am )
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-30/world-shouldn-t-wait-for-u-s-resolution-on-climate-agreement-japan-says.html
    Excerpt,
    Jonathan Pershing, chief of the U.S. delegation, said earlier this week that –
    the Obama administration stands by its commitment to reduce its emissions of heat-trapping gases by 17 percent for the 15 years through 2020.
    (EVERYONE should of fallen about laughing as he uttered these words)

    “heat-trapping gases” – for goodness sakes, “economics” is (unintentionally) saving science….

    But you just don’t get that “here” do you…
    If you do “get it” (and I’m wrong), then
    please explain to me HOW carbon dioxide “traps” heat.
    The only “GHG” that “traps” heat (temporarily) is water vapour,
    by it’s latent heat properties,
    WHICH CO2 DOES NOT HAVE (at atmospheric temperatures).

    Science web site of the year, in whatever year, that does not realise
    CO2 CAN NOT trap heat.
    No wonder “economics” has HAD to save us from (AGW pseudo) “science”.

    You just don’t “get it” do you,
    quibbling the (AGW) figures ain’t it,
    questioning the (AGW) principles “is it”.

    That’s why the Japanese have done what they’ve done.

  98. CodeTech says:

    Alex the skeptic says:

    Global Climate Disruption has been disrupted at Cancun by the Kyotoans.
    So what’s next? Ocean acidification? Global Oxygen Depletion?

    I highly doubt the left will ever profess a fear of G.O.D….

  99. Henry chance says:

    The Sex poodle was asked “what is it about no you don’t understand?”

    I say we send James Hansen over there and let him picket. They will melt.

    He can wear them down.

    My experience with oriental negotiating is that they never get this blunt.

  100. BargHumer says:

    I just discovered a positive feedback! – where I live in Sweden, we have had around 1m of snow over a week. There is no place left for the snow ploughs to push it. The only solution is to put it in big trucks and dump it somewhere else (near my house). So, more snow means mores now ploughs, more trucks, more diesel and more Co2.

    Just scraping the barrel to help the climate modelers you know.

  101. Derek says:

    Robinson says:
    December 2, 2010 at 12:00 pm

    ” But of course as we know, “peer review” in Physics (Cox’s area) is a very different beast to peer review in Climate Science. ”

    I wouldn’t be so sure of that…
    Is all “climate physics” 5 sigma, pier reviewed – thought not.
    Much of AGW “climate science” is accepted (read pier reviewed) “physics” though.

    The greenhouse effect for example.
    What is the proof for “back radiation” from clouds to the earth’s surface. ?
    Without which, there is no “greenhouse effect” (Sorry Gavin Schmidt – well not sorry really..),.
    Somewhat akin to the missing atmospheric hot spot come to think of it (Sorry James Hansen – well not sorry really).
    It would help if we had a reliable global HADcrut temp record to judge such against, but alas we have not (Sorry Phil Jones – well not sorry really).

  102. Mark T says:

    Robinson says:
    December 2, 2010 at 12:00 pm

    But of course as we know, “peer review” in Physics (Cox’s area) is a very different beast to peer review in Climate Science.

    That’s one of the problems with citing all of these “outsider” authorities regarding climate change. The outsiders assume, incorrectly IMO, that the peer review process works the same in climate science as it does in their own field. It obviously does not. Certainly all fields will tend towards what is deemed mainstream, placing a higher standard on works that don’t fit with the generally accepted theories, but climate science is to the point where you either agree or don’t get published (not quite, as RO10 proves.)

    Mark

  103. PhilJourdan says:

    BargHumer says:
    December 2, 2010 at 1:11 pm

    Barg – AHA! (lightbulb moment). I was once in Albany NY – when? About 1998 (January). And due to the amount of snow they had, they had to do the same thing. And what do we know about 1998?

    Yep! It is all those snow removal trucks!

  104. morgo says:

    don,t worry australia will jump in and double there Kyoto agreement, we will save the world PS its still raining, major flooding and no sun and below avg temptures most of australia

  105. James Allison says:

    I wonder what the echo chambers at the alarmist blogs are going to discuss going forward.

  106. Malaga View says:

    Cold Englishman says:
    December 2, 2010 at 12:48 pm
    All those free flights to exotic places for the ‘Canutes’ in East Anglia. How sad for them.

    I hate to be picky on your spelling of ‘Canutes’ but:
    1) There is no ‘A’ in the word
    2) There is no ‘E’ in the word
    3) The ‘U’ should be before the the ‘N’

  107. Paul Birch says:

    In my opinion it is naive to view this as a turnaround on AGW. Rather, it is a rejection of the limited scope of the Kyoto agreement, in order to create greater pressure for a binding global agreement. Kyoto was disproportionately damaging to the economies of the signatories, but by its nature was unable to effect a global reduction in emissions, because it simply encouraged those countries outside the agreement to take up the slack. That is why extending it would be pointless, and why Japan is opposed to such an extension. This diplomatic positioning by Japan will probably make it somewhat easier to reach agreement on a stronger treaty, and somewhat more likely that Cancun will be a “success”, though of course there are still major impediments due to the divergence of interests between the more developed countries (EU, G10, etc.) and less developed countries (“third world”).

  108. BillyBob says:

    “Kyoto has achieved precisely nothing”

    Nonsense. It has transfered millions of jobs from the US to China and India all in the name of being green. And it has helped China burn a lot of coal.

  109. Wagathon says:

    We have to tell it like it is. Everything about global warming has become all too predictable.

    Phil Jones can admit that there has been no global warming since 1995 and that will be ignored by AGW True Believers. We can see a flat line of global average temperatures since 1999 and AGW True Believers will ignore it. We can see a cooling trend since 2002 and AGW True Believers will deny it.

    There is no finding, in fact, that will challenge an AGW True Believer to conclude that the Earth has warmed and cooled and may continue to cool without human help. The oceans are cooling now and even if they continue to cool for the next three decades the AGW True Believer will continue to insist that the human impact on global warming is undeniable and major.

  110. RoyFOMR says:

    I wouldn’t be opening the champagne just yet.
    The silence surrounding Cancun, coming from the BBC and other powerful sources, is deafening.
    It was clearly a deliberate policy, formulated some time ago, to stifle debate and hide the many beasties that live and crawl under the protective shadow of beast that is CAGW from the public gaze.
    If it ain’t reported then it ain’t news. The steamroller of government will roll on regardless, crushing all opposition on the way.
    Your kids will still be force-fed dodgy political views packaged as Science and penalised if they don’t tick the right box.
    Opinion, designed by committee, will continue to be bombarded down the throats, and into the minds, of the general public to spawn outcomes that, once, would have been regarded as outlandish, fantastical and ludicrous.
    The madness will be with us for a very long time perhaps forever.
    No amount of logic. No sense of decency. No appeal to authority will prevail; for that is the source of the madness that threatens our collective futures.
    Keep the bottles of bubbly corked and don’t plan any celebrations until the lunatics have let the Kool-Aid work its miracles!

  111. u.k.(us) says:

    Japan stood at the edge of the abyss, and took a step backwards.
    Good for them.
    May many follow their lead.

  112. George E. Smith says:

    “”””” Derek says:
    December 2, 2010 at 1:01 pm
    From, (as linked to earlier by Mike says: December 2, 2010 at 10:59 am )
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-30/world-shouldn-t-wait-for-u-s-resolution-on-climate-agreement-japan-says.html
    ……………………………..
    “heat-trapping gases” – for goodness sakes, “economics” is (unintentionally) saving science….

    But you just don’t get that “here” do you…
    If you do “get it” (and I’m wrong), then
    please explain to me HOW carbon dioxide “traps” heat.
    The only “GHG” that “traps” heat (temporarily) is water vapour,
    by it’s latent heat properties,
    WHICH CO2 DOES NOT HAVE (at atmospheric temperatures).

    Science web site of the year, in whatever year, that does not realise
    CO2 CAN NOT trap heat. “””””

    Well we do not have ANY perfect thermal insulators, so therefore there is nothing which can “trap heat”; it will get out eventually.
    So it’s a bad choice of words. CO2 can most assuredly “absorb” heat. Just put some dry ice in a balloon and seal it; then wait for it to sublime and blow the balloon up. Then watch as th CO2 starts to warm up to room temperature; which it most assuredly will do by absorbing “heat” from the surroundings.

    As for water vapor; it already contains ALL of the latent heat it will ever have; even if it is at zero deg C, so there is no way it can subsequently “trap heat” even temporarily by means of “latent heat”; that would require an additional phase change adn nothing comes after the liquid to vapor phase change.

    But what CO2 and H2O and any other GHG CAN DO , is to at least temporarily capture LWIR Radiation (which is NOT “heat”) and subsequently convert that photon energy into “heat” as a result of collisions with other atmospheric molecules, most likely N2, and then O2, in that order. What comes next may be Argon; but it also could be H2O if the humidity is high.

    I don’t know why people keep on coming to WUWT and insisting that the GHG effect is all some giant fraud, and doesn’t exist.

    That’s a bad bet to invest your life savings into.

    What is important, is what the total climate effect of GHG temporary “trapping” of LWIR radiation; which most certainly does lead to atmospheric warming. Well so what; there’s more to climate than atmospheric warming.

    And H2O vapor is no different from CO2 vapor at atmospheric Temperatures and pressures. Neither one can gather up more “heat” via any “latent heat” mechanism. But for Ice or water, then latent heat can become involved.

  113. Theo Goodwin says:

    Fremma says:
    December 2, 2010 at 12:37 pm
    ‘I need some help here. I don’t usually have difficulty translating bureaucrat-speak but I’m struggling with Mr Arima’s statement: “Japan will not inscribe its target under the Kyoto protocol on any conditions or under any circumstances.”’

    Clever post. Maybe he means he refuses to carve Japan’s target in Cancun stone. My guess is that he meant to say that he will not “subscribe to” the treaty.

  114. Derek says:

    Mods, my second post
    (after Derek says: December 2, 2010 at 1:14 pm appears to have not appeared. ?)
    Given the excellent post of RoyFOMR says: December 2, 2010 at 2:09 pm
    is it possible for you to retrieve and post it,
    if for no other reason than for the sake of discussion.

    Thanks in advance,
    Derek.

  115. Robert Thomson says:

    BBC News at 1000 tonight – “the current weather is unprecedented” and at the same time – we can expect to experience these cold “cluster” events as the climate changes.

    So at the moment we are having an unprecedented cluster ……

    So funny!

  116. KenB says:

    Paul Birch says:
    December 2, 2010 at 1:36 pm

    Sigh, Paul sadly, I think that will be the spin, lets see how things pan out. Kyoto did focus our minds to a reality. Those realities jolted us into the real world of rocketing power bills, higher water prices and higher commodity prices, it also spawned all sorts of money making schemes from wind power, solar, insulation, and energy efficient light bulbs that fail soon after fitting and the promise of much worse to come.

    On the brighter side it also made many people take a good look at the Climate science to see why we should embrace this race to penury at indecent haste, investigate the wild claims and the weird agenda, look hard at the profiteers and promoters making money behind a facade of “post normal science” arrogant “don’t question, or else we will destroy your reputation, deny you access to “our” publications to restrict your ability to publish. Antics that caused fair minded scientists to say enough is enough and expose the nature of the science that promoted the wildest claims.

    Kyoto took us from meek acceptance to today’s more measured look to the future.

    One stepping stone towards ?

  117. In Danish TV2 the news is on. They report that japanese industry for a longer period has pressed against the japanese commitment to the Kyoto treaty. If so, the Japanese decision may not change much during Cancun.

    K.R. Frank

  118. Doug says:

    Peter Walsh says: December 2, 2010 at 9:29 am
    Daniel M says:
    December 2, 2010 at 8:40 am
    What sound does the first domino make?No sound whatsoever.We are surrounded by global warming here in Ireland. We call it SNOW!
    ———————————————————————————
    Peter Walsh. You are right there. The Global Warming meme has always been a snow job!

    Douglas

  119. Mr Lynn says:

    All the huzzahs are premature. It’s not time to celebrate yet. From the Guardian article linked above,

    Japan gave no reasons for making its brief statement on the second day of the talks, but diplomats said last night that it represented a hardening of its line. “Japan has stated before that it wants only one legal instrument and that it would be unfair to continue the protocol,” said one official who did not wish to be named.

    Japan, which last night declined to clarify its position, has said in the past that it would not reject a new legally-binding overall agreement, but is concerned that it would be penalised if it signed up to cuts while other countries such as India and China were not legally bound to make similar cuts. . .

    The Japanese delegation are not rejecting the catechism that inspired Kyoto in the first place, that anthropogenic global warming is real and a danger to the world. They are simply saying that Kyoto was unfair because it did not include every ‘polluter’, namely the USA, India, and China. And they are explicitly saying they will sign a new accord that includes everyone.

    There is good news, and that is that India and China will have no part of such an agreement, and, thanks to the November elections, neither will the US Congress. So the True Believers in AGW at Cancun will be left trying to contrive a treaty that can go nowhere, except to salve the souls of the Greens in Europe and the USA.

    Now if the Republicans have the stones to shut down the EPA, we’ll be making real progress.

    /Mr Lynn

  120. Olen says:

    So Japan the sovereign country is not willing to commit national suicide. A known fraud is really a hard thing to sell. Maybe because it has no value.

  121. Nonoy Oplas says:

    Great development. Japan saw how China overtook its economy this year as the world’s 2nd largest economy. If Japan will keep the Kyoto madness, soon India will also overtake it. And then Brazil…

  122. Derek says:

    George E. Smith says:
    December 2, 2010 at 2:12 pm

    Well we do not have ANY perfect thermal insulators, so therefore there is nothing which can “trap heat”; it will get out eventually.
    So it’s a bad choice of words. (1) CO2 can most assuredly “absorb” heat. Just put some dry ice in a balloon and seal it; then wait for it to sublime and blow the balloon up. Then watch as the CO2 starts to warm up to room temperature; (3) which it most assuredly will do by absorbing “heat” from the surroundings.

    and,

    As for water vapor; it already contains ALL of the latent heat it will ever have; (4)

    and,

    But what CO2 and H2O and any other GHG CAN DO , is to at least temporarily capture LWIR Radiation (5)

    and,

    capture LWIR Radiation (which is NOT “heat”) and subsequently convert that photon energy into “heat” as a result of collisions with other atmospheric molecules, most likely N2, and then O2, in that order. What comes next may be Argon; but it also could be H2O if the humidity is high. (6)

    and,

    I don’t know why people keep on coming to WUWT and insisting that the GHG effect is all some giant fraud, and doesn’t exist. (7)

    and,

    What is important, is what the total climate effect of GHG temporary “trapping” of LWIR radiation; (8)

    AND,

    And H2O vapor is no different from CO2 vapor at atmospheric Temperatures and pressures. Neither one can gather up more “heat” via any “latent heat” mechanism. But for Ice or water, then latent heat can become involved. (9)

    (1) It is NOT bad choice of words, it is simply WRONG. As I asked, and you have avoided, how does CO2 2trap” heat AT ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES. It does not, and can not, there is no change of state.

    (2) Dry ice has a temperature of what ?

    (3) What are you going on about ?

    (4) Again, what are you going on about, liquid water evaporates (look at a boiling pan of water if you must), which is an endothermic reaction (requires energy), when it later condenses the water vapour releases energy (exothermic reaction). Comonly this is known as a movement of energy from point a to point b. Inbetween points a and b the energy (of latent heat) is “trapped” temporarily. Which bit of everyday reality do you not see. ?

    (5) Go on admit it (if to yourself, and not us), by capture you really mean trap….

    (6) You do understand the difference between heat and energy don’t you, on this evidence you do not.
    BTW – Don’t try debating tactics on me, they do not impress me, and I will not be drawn into using them, however low your “standards” are.

    (7) Your not really interested in science are you. Truth and skepticism are words you have never looked up the meanings of in a dictionary, are they.

    (8) If that ain’t a complete reversal of position, what is…. Your back to heat trapping gases.. LOL.

    (9) Honestly, which banana boat did you just get off, ” H2O vapor is no different from CO2 vapor at atmospheric Temperatures “, your serious arn’t you. Are you familiar with the phrase laughing stock, it might help you when people smile uncontrolably in your presence.

    If this is a “skeptics” website, no effing wonder “they” are winning.
    Economics, you wasted your time, they ain’t worth saving,
    this lot are brainless, judging by George E. Smith.

  123. Doug says:

    Fremma says: December 2, 2010 at 12:37 pm
    I need some help here. I don’t usually have difficulty translating bureaucrat-speak but I’m struggling with Mr Arima’s statement: “Japan will not inscribe its target under the Kyoto protocol on any conditions or under any circumstances.”
    Or is there some sort of monument at Cancun that is under attack by an army of diplomats with chisels?
    ——————————————————————————-
    Fremma. I think that it is as simple as saying that Japan will not sign anything to do with the protocol – not – never – nohow!

    Douglas

  124. alan says:

    I don’t see any metion of this Japanese bomb-shell in the American MSM! Even over at FOX. I wonder why??

  125. Derek says:

    George E. Smith says:
    December 2, 2010 at 2:12 pm
    Quotes,
    (1) Well we do not have ANY perfect thermal insulators, so therefore there is nothing which can “trap heat”; it will get out eventually.
    So it’s a bad choice of words. CO2 can most assuredly “absorb” heat.
    (2) Just put some dry ice in a balloon and seal it; then wait for it to sublime and blow the balloon up.
    (3) Then watch as the CO2 starts to warm up to room temperature; which it most assuredly will do by absorbing “heat” from the surroundings.
    (4) As for water vapor; it already contains ALL of the latent heat it will ever have;
    (5) But what CO2 and H2O and any other GHG CAN DO , is to at least temporarily capture LWIR Radiation
    (6) capture LWIR Radiation (which is NOT “heat”) and subsequently convert that photon energy into “heat” as a result of collisions with other atmospheric molecules, most likely N2, and then O2, in that order. What comes next may be Argon; but it also could be H2O if the humidity is high.
    (7) I don’t know why people keep on coming to WUWT and insisting that the GHG effect is all some giant fraud, and doesn’t exist.
    (8) What is important, is what the total climate effect of GHG temporary “trapping” of LWIR radiation;
    (9) And H2O vapor is no different from CO2 vapor at atmospheric Temperatures and pressures. Neither one can gather up more “heat” via any “latent heat” mechanism. But for Ice or water, then latent heat can become involved.

    Derek replies,
    (1) It is NOT bad choice of words, it is simply WRONG. As I asked, and you have avoided, how does CO2 2trap” heat AT ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES. It does not, and can not, there is no change of state.
    (2) Dry ice has a temperature of what ?
    (3) What are you going on about ?
    (4) Again, what are you going on about, liquid water evaporates (look at a boiling pan of water if you must), which is an endothermic reaction (requires energy), when it later condenses the water vapour releases energy (exothermic reaction). Commonly this is known as a movement of energy from point a to point b. Inbetween points a and b the energy (of latent heat) is “trapped” temporarily. Which bit of everyday reality do you not see. ?
    (5) Go on admit it (if to yourself, and not us), by capture you really mean trap….
    (6) You do understand the difference between heat and energy don’t you, on this evidence you do not.
    BTW – Don’t try debating tactics on me, they do not impress me, and I will not be drawn into using them, however low your “standards” are.
    (7) Your not really interested in science are you. Truth and skepticism are words you have never looked up the meanings of in a dictionary, are they.
    (8) If that ain’t a complete reversal of position, what is…. Your back to heat trapping gases.. LOL.
    (9) Honestly, which banana boat did you just get off, ” H2O vapor is no different from CO2 vapor at atmospheric Temperatures “, your serious arn’t you. Are you familiar with the phrase laughing stock, it might help you when people laugh uncontrollably in your presence.

    If this is one of the main “skeptics” website, no effing wonder “they” are winning.
    Economics, you wasted your time, they ain’t worth saving,
    this lot are brainless, judging by George E. Smith.

  126. George E. Smith says:

    “””” Derek says:
    December 2, 2010 at 2:53 pm
    George E. Smith says:
    December 2, 2010 at 2:12 pm “””””

    Derek, I’m just going to presume that for you English is a second language and leave it at that. You obviously didn’t read what I said let alone understand any of it. So why not try reading what I said; because that is almost invariably what I mean to say.

  127. kcrucible says:

    “Japan will not inscribe its target under the Kyoto protocol on any conditions or under any circumstances.”

    How is this consistent with “Japan refuses to extend Kyoto treaty”? Is this some new meaning of the word “inscribe” that I have not previously encountered? Does it work better in Japanese?

    “a. To write, print, carve, or engrave (words or letters) on or in a surface.”

    If you take the engraving meaning, you get the sense of what he’s trying to say. An engraving is permanent… a commitment. Basically he’s saying that Japan isn’t committing to the Kyoto targets any longer and will not be strongarmed into it (ie. under any circumstances.)

  128. latitude says:

    Henry chance says:
    December 2, 2010 at 1:11 pm
    My experience with oriental negotiating is that they never get this blunt.
    =====================================================
    I was thinking the same thing Henry……

  129. R. de Haan says:

    That’s a great solution.
    End Global Warming, Take off your clothes
    http://www.theblaze.com/stories/young-environmentalist-strip-down-in-public/

  130. RoyFOMR says:

    Derek, high 1 2~5 my man.
    You are clearly one big swinging brainbox to regard GES as brainless.
    His achievements and intellect are, to me -a mindless moron, beyond belief.
    Thanks for pointing out how wrong I was. Your intelligence is only surpassed by your respect for
    the abilities of others less fortunate than yourself.

  131. John G. Bell says:

    I think inscribed in the quote by Mr. Arima would be best translated as “commit to in writing”. They will not sign an agreement. It is a very blunt statement. A statement that the position of his government is not negotiable.

    What Japan sees today is a unified China surpassing them in economic, political and military power. If the Cancun meeting’s purpose is to agree to transfer wealth from developed nations to underdeveloped nations, Japan sees China’s classification as an underdeveloped nation as against its interests. That is all that is left now that scientific support for AGW is inadequate.

  132. Derek says:

    George E. Smith says: December 2, 2010 at 3:18 pm,
    Derek replies,
    English is my first language, “debating” is not a language I entertain at all.
    Time is telling.
    I don’t know how, so will not advise, but,
    you should get used to the smiles / being laughed at.

  133. E.M.Smith says:

    Reality bites, when Japan says something so blunt, you know they mean it – Anthony

    That is an understatement! When Japan says something that blunt, it’s time to start checking for missing body parts and brush up on your sword defense skills… Those words are delivered like the last words before conflict. “This line, and no further.”

    My read on it is that it is roughly the same as saying “No way. Stuff yourself.” And I’d speculate that Japan is looking over the waters at China and thinking “Give THEM a free ride as they eat OUR lunch? No Way.”

    Japan is resource limited. They must import raw materials, upgrade in manufacture, and sell forward. They know that to do this with fetters on while China gets a free pass will kill their economy. At the same time they see China’s client, N. Korea, stirring the pot while China buys up resource contracts world wide.

    Those folks are way too smart to not put that together and see where it leads. China dominating the world economy “right quick” and Japan being shot at by Korea as a China Proxy. China would love nothing more than a little “pay back” for the Japanese actions in W.W.II and if they could get economic gain at the same time, well, great!

    Japan can see that, so will move to prevent it. Thus a “STUFF IT” moment…

    This just makes my day.

  134. Douglas DC says:

    what is Japanese for “Put it where the sun doesn’t shine.”?

  135. E.M.Smith says:

    Malaga View says: And in related news: Turkeys vote to postpone Christmas…

    Joining in the vote on the Turkey side, the Hogs helped push the measure out of committee and with the aid of the Chicken Lobby To Ban Eggnog passage is assured ;-)

    And I have “Jingle Bells, Shotgun Shells, Granny’s Got A Gun!” running through my head… (there are MANY variations on the bent lyrics…)

    God I’m feeling giddy about this. The first real hope about the issue in a very long time…

  136. u.k.(us) says:

    Japan has been in a recession for the last decade (excluding the financial bubble),
    they are not looking for additional burdens.

  137. Roger Carr says:

    Daniel M says: (December 2, 2010 at 8:40 am) What sound does the first domino make?

    Brilliant, Daniel! Another Quote of the Week. It sings.

  138. FijiDave says:

    Tony B (another one) says:
    December 2, 2010 at 9:35 am
    Interesting to see just how little mention of Cancun is evident on the BBC website.

    Not like that here in Fiji. The BBC on FM radio are talking about nothing other than ‘Climate Change’ and ‘Global Warming’ – at least on my morning and evening commute to and from home. Enough to make one carsick.

    I have to admit, though, that you are correct, not much about Cancun.

    I wonder if that anything to do with their thinking?

    http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/11/30/clathrate-to-production/

  139. clipe says:

    Robinson says:
    December 2, 2010 at 9:57 am

    “I’m loving the fact it’s the Guardian reporting it. I imagine (although I haven’t visited the article) that there’s a lot of hypocritical piety in the comments section!”

    -> Fom Grauniad comments section.

    Mike Teesly
    1 December 2010 6:22PM
    Even Kyoto doesn’t want Kyoto.

  140. Hank Hancock says:

    Greenpeace launched a “Rescue the Climate” balloon over the ruins of Chichen Itza , symbolizing the ruined state of our planet. Perhaps they should launch one over the COP16 Climate Conference meeting hall to symbolize the ruin of COP16. It would be the perfect touch to the tone the Japanese have set for this year’s event.

  141. morgo says:

    the quicker this talk fest is over the better we then can go back to the party with free beer and lobsters

  142. J.Hansford says:

    Ha har!…… The politics of AGW bites th’ dust.

    Cha cha cha! (lil’ victory dance there)…….:-)

  143. TGSG says:

    Malaga View says:
    December 2, 2010 at 1:34 pm
    Cold Englishman says:
    December 2, 2010 at 12:48 pm
    All those free flights to exotic places for the ‘Canutes’ in East Anglia. How sad for them.

    I hate to be picky on your spelling of ‘Canutes’ but:
    1) There is no ‘A’ in the word
    2) There is no ‘E’ in the word
    3) The ‘U’ should be before the the ‘N’

    ok , I laughed!

  144. DCC says:

    Derek said (among many other things): “What are you going on about ?”

    Gezz, I was wondering the same about your diatribes, Derek. Can’t you write succinctly? Rambling on and on is a sign of a disorganized mind. Nobody wants to wade through all that prolixity.

    “you should get used to the smiles / being laughed at.”
    Well said. Please make a note of it.

  145. DCC says:

    Japan’s rejection of extending Kyoto is hardly a win for the critics of AGW. Clearly Japan wants a stronger treaty. The real win is that the US Congress refused to ratify Kyoto even before the Republican victories a few months ago. There is zero chance Congress will ratify a stronger treaty.

    The loss is that world trade will tank if these people get their way. The US economy suffers when much of the rest of the world shoots itself in the foot.

  146. MattN says:

    To show how seriosu we are about global warming, instead of sending staff to attend the conference, Sen Boxer sent a statement: http://tomnelson.blogspot.com/2010/12/diplomats-head-to-sunny-cancun-but-u.html

    A *statement*. Wow….

  147. Curiousgeorge says:

    Animals and fanatics are most dangerous when cornered. None of this demolishing of support for the imposition of carbon taxes, etc., will dissuade the true believers from their goals. If anything, they will become more fanatical as they become more and more marginalized. Watch your backs.

  148. Pyeatte says:

    Well at least the delagates can still have their local hookers.

  149. Axel Morris says:

    Yes the Japanese are right in refusing to extend Kyoto protocol. As pointed out by former Forbes Magazine reporter Benjamin Fulford in Japan, there is a hidden agenda behind this fraudulent climate of hokum science, and that is the underlying objective of World Governance and control by banking family elites. See the hundreds of free feature length videos on these matters at the website.

    http://fraudulentclimate.atspace.com/

  150. old engineer says:

    So far only Paul Birch and Mr. Lynn have seeming got it right. Japan won’t vote for extending Kyoto, because it is unfair to current signers. But would vote for a new treaty that includes everybody.

    I say “seemingly” because others are correct also. The Japanese are NEVER that blunt in negotations. When they nod their heads in a discussion, it means “yes, I understand,” not “yes, I agree.”

    They know that a new agreement is not going to happen, with China, India, and the U.S. congress not going along. So, they can have it both ways. First, upholding the goals of the alarmists. Isn’t that what the alarmists want- everyone has to be included? Why would the alarmists be upset with the Japanese? They just want fairness.

    But, since a new treaty is not going to happen, they also get released from the things they signed up for in Kyoto. Very clever, the Japanese.

  151. AlanG says:

    The majority of fossil fuel consumption (=CO2 emissions) now occurs in the ‘developing’ world which is exempt from Kyoto. And that part is rising strongly whereas consumption in the ‘developed’ world is static or falling. China alone burns 45% of all the coal used in the whole world.

    Japan has a particular problem. It’s economy is already very energy efficient so it’s difficult to lower fuel use further.

  152. old engineer says:

    Wow! It looks like the Canadians are using the same ploy and as the Japanese. Very clever, the Canadians.

  153. tokyoboy says:

    Please don’t get your wires crossed. Most of our politicians and bureaucrats still believe in the crazy idea that we can save the planet by curbing CO2 emission , or at least so pretending. They only say, perhaps rightly, that the target cannot be attained by the efforts of limited number of countries (e.g., Japan occupies only 4% of global CO2 emission). In addition, a heavy CO2 emissions reduction will surely hurt our domestic industry, that has attained a high level of energy saving around 1985.

    I would like to add that the media coverage on AGW has dramatically decreased since the end of 2009, probably as a fallout of Climategate.

  154. AlanG says:

    Here’s an interesting quote (from John Kay in the FT) that sums up mainstream climate ‘science’ perfectly:

    I learnt that anecdotes are more powerful than statistical data. I also learnt that opinion was often immune to contrary evidence, especially when that opinion expresses an underlying prejudice.

  155. Rational Debate says:

    re post by Malaga View says: December 2, 2010 at 10:53 am

    Guess the RSPCA will have to launch a Christmas Appeal this year as there are 22,000 mammalian AGW gravy trainers in serious distress in Cancun… but if you decide to adopt one of these poor sunburnt AGW gravy trainers then please remember: AGW gravy trainers are for life – not just Christmas.

    Sigh. Ya. AGW gravy trainers, can’t live with ‘em, can’t eat ‘em.

  156. Robert says:

    Douglas DC says:
    December 2, 2010 at 4:08 pm

    what is Japanese for “Put it where the sun doesn’t shine.”?

    That would be “Please put it where the sun doesn’t shine.” of wich google translate makes “Taiyō ga kagayaite inai sore o doko ni oite kudasai”. But i would not bet on this being correct, for example Babel Fish re translates this as the rather confusing “Please put that the sun has not shone in somewhere”.

    But then my understanding of the Japanese langauge is even less than that of climate and their models in general. I could have friend look at this, but it would be very unusual for a Japanese to be this blunt (even after the consumption of some or more alcoholic beverages).

  157. Rational Debate says:

    In reading about this, I’d had the same thought as old engineer says: December 2, 2010 at 8:08 pm and very much hope this is a ploy on the part of the Japanese – e.g., they’ve stated ‘we won’t extend Kyoto because it needs to be a comprehensive treaty covering everyone’ — all the while hoping/expecting that there’s no way that can come about. End result, they’re relieved of their Kyoto obligations without anything new to take it’s place. I very much hope that’s the case, because what they’ve stated doesn’t sound as if they’re backing off AGW at all, unfortunately.

    Only a couple of ways to get a better feeling for which it is come to mind off the top of my head. First, determine just how much effort, cost, and progress the Japanese have actually made towards their Kyoto obligations. If its very little, that’s promising. If, however, they’ve poured tons into really trying to reduce output and seem committed in that regard, that’s not so promising. I imagine some of you here probably know the answer to this right off.

    Second, is what they do now. Do they sit back and watch the fireworks? Promising! Or do they start really trying to get other nations to commit to a more comprehensive treaty? To my mind, it doesn’t bode well that China has agreed to international verification of their emissions… if I understood that correctly anyhow.

    Of course, the other thing we have going for us is that there are so many different countries involved its likely to be difficult to get all on board – but then they got a large number on for Kyoto.

    Meanwhile, our admin here in the US is pushing it all on us by utter fiat, via the EPA and other various backdoor methods. NOT good.

  158. pwl says:

    “Looks like Canada may have to hand back it’s Fossil prize !!!”

    You’ll have to pry it from our cold dead carbon based fossils hands! We’ve got plenty of em so good luck finding it!! Drumheller would be your best bet.

    This is great news from Japan! I wonder what the undercurrents are? What do the Japanese politicians really think of the AGW Doomsday? Is it just a negotiating ploy or do they really want out of the whole mess? Maybe we need wikileaks whistleblower to out some more diplomatic messages?

  159. Julian Braggins says:

    Thank you WUWT for informing me of the Japanese statement. Being confined to the house by heavy rain and minor flooding in South East Australia and listening to half hourly news on radio and TV all day, no mention of Cancun.

    Maybe the Emu on our Coat of Arms should be an Ostrich, or the Three Monkeys.

  160. dwright says:

    In the words of my generation
    “OHH SNAP”!!!
    kyoto is an anagram of Tokyo,
    H/T to the Japanese for putting things straight again.
    [d]

  161. marcus25 says:

    in·scribe (n-skrb)
    tr.v. in·scribed, in·scrib·ing, in·scribes
    1.
    a. To write, print, carve, or engrave (words or letters) on or in a surface.
    b. To mark or engrave (a surface) with words or letters.
    2. To enter (a name) on a list or in a register.
    3.
    a. To sign one’s name or write a brief message in or on (a gift book or photograph, for example).
    b. To dedicate to someone.
    4. Mathematics To draw (one figure) within another figure so that every vertex of the enclosed figure touches the outer figure.

  162. tokyoboy says:

    dwright says: December 2, 2010 at 10:29 pm
    “Kyoto is an anagram of Tokyo”

    A small lesson on the Japanese language:
    For Kyoto, both “kyo” and “to” mean “capital”, so the name was born as duplicative emphasis.
    For Tokyo, “to” means “east” and “kyo” is the same (capital) as in Kyoto.
    Hence, Tokyo is equal to “eastern Kyoto”.

  163. Al Gored says:

    Oh, oh.

    “UN demands “concrete results” from Cancun summit”

    “Speaking to reporters in New York yesterday, UN under secretary general for planning Robert Orr said that the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, which is due for release in 2014, will be much worse than the last report released in 2007.

    That report warned that based on business-as-usual projections, average global temperatures could rise by as much as six degrees by the end of the century, resulting in a catastrophic impact on the global economy.”

    http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/1900141/demands-concrete-results-cancun-summit

    Extensive and entertaining coverage of Cancun and more of this kind of ‘scientific’ information from the Green Inc. point of view avaialble at this site, including their take on this Japan story:

    http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/1929741/japan-ignites-cancun-row-refusal-extend-kyoto

    It includes this: “China’s envoy, Su Wei, told reporters earlier today that Japan’s position threatened the future of the talks. “The Kyoto Protocol is the very basis of the framework to address climate change through international cooperation,” he said. “If the pillar is collapsed, you can guess the consequences.”

    Seems Japan recognizes that crippling its economy while its rival China builds coal fired power plants as fast as it can is not such a good idea, for Japan, while China is shocked, shocked, by Japan’s planet-hating attitude.

  164. davidmhoffer says:

    I always thought that Japan would be one of the first (if not THE first) industrialized countries to break ranks with AGW political correctness. Not for the reasons that they cited in public, nor for the ones theorized above in this thread. The reason I expected Japan to break ranks, and the REAL reason in my opinion, is that they have some serious long term climate reconstructions that have quietly been published with little fanfare. While the entire world seems transfixed with the debate over various proxy reconstructions from tree rings made into hockey sticks by dubious or outright dishonest math, researchers in Japan have been building a credible millenial reconstruction based on historical blooming dates of cherry trees, and in all of places, Kyoto.

    Their technique shows astonding correlation with the intrumental temperature record, suffers no “divergence” problem that anyone must hide, and can be accurately gauged in terms of UHI. Check out the work of Aono et al

    http://www.envi.osakafu-u.ac.jp/atmenv/aono/AonoWe.html

    And in particular, this study:

    http://www.springerlink.com/content/e13r57081qk84930/fulltext.pdf

    Recently published in the International Journal of Biometeorology which amongst other conclusions says the LIA and MWP were clearly present in Japan and

    “The warm springtime temperatures in the middle of
    the tenth century were almost the same or somewhat higher
    than present normal temperatures after subtracting the urban
    warming effect”

    These researchers are well known in Japan, their work makes a mockery of Mann, Jones and Briffa, and I suspect the Japanese are simply bowing out because they know the facts, but for what ever reason would rather just bluntly say no than insult their peers by pointing out how easily they’ve been duped.

    I’ve pointed at these studies many times in many places. Perhaps given that the Kyoto cherry blossoms are discrediting the Kyoto accords and the hockey stick reconstructions, while proving the world wide existance of the LIA and MWP, and correlating to the sun spot cycles with a 15 year lag time over a 1,000 year period, it is time for WUWT to run some articles on this very well done science? Discrediting the Yamal larch thing is no longer as much fun as it was. And less so in Japan.

  165. Michael says:

    Qatar gets the World Cup in 2020. It’s a hunndred and six degrees by noon in Qatar at the time of the World Cup. What team in their right mind would want to play in 106 degrees when they can be playing in Barcelona on a nice balmy 89 degree day?

    Oh, it’s OK, the stadiums will be air conditioned.

    If I wanted air conditioning, I’d just go down to my local stadium when it’s hot and watch the hockey game. The teams want to experience the outdoors while they are playing. I don’t know why, and so do the people at the event.

    There’s something more going on with this Qatar pick and it probably has more to do with money than most people think.

    Or could it be the people of Qatar just want to give the rest of the world a glimpse of how the live, welcoming you into their back yard for a once in a lifetime glimpse into their world that most people watching don’t get to see much of?

    I here they even have an indoor ski resort in Qatar.

    I’m a little bit conflicted.

  166. Michael says:

    And another thing;

    Everybody must be in their air conditioned palaces by noon. Only mad dogs and Englishmen in Qatar stand out in the noon day sun during the World Cup.

  167. Michael says:

    I know this news is monumental.
    Look for a ripple effect in Europe.

  168. Michael says:

    I think You’ll enjoy this.

    Enron Andersen’s Christmas party

  169. Michael says:

    It’s pretty cold here too in SW Florida. Right now it’s about 50*.

  170. Michael says:

    They are as we speak, drilling holes in the ground and pumping is CO2 in the ground for safe keeping.

    I’m just saying.

  171. Stacey says:

    Anthony/Mr Moderator I post the following quite often so ditch if you wish.
    The following is what the boys were up to pre Kyoto 1997, enjoy:-

    From: Joseph Alcamo
    To: m.hulmexxxxxxxxx.xxx, Rob.Swartxxxxxxxxx.xxx
    Subject: Timing, Distribution of the Statement
    Date: Thu, 9 Oct 1997 18:52:33 0100
    Reply-to: alcamoxxxxxxxxx.xxx

    Mike, Rob,

    Sounds like you guys have been busy doing good things for the cause.

    I would like to weigh in on two important questions —

    Distribution for Endorsements —
    I am very strongly in favor of as wide and rapid a distribution as
    possible for endorsements. I think the only thing that counts is
    numbers. The media is going to say “1000 scientists signed” or “1500
    signed”. No one is going to check if it is 600 with PhDs versus 2000
    without. They will mention the prominent ones, but that is a
    different story.

    Conclusion — Forget the screening, forget asking
    them about their last publication (most will ignore you.) Get those
    names!

    Timing — I feel strongly that the week of 24 November is too late.
    1. We wanted to announce the Statement in the period when there was
    a sag in related news, but in the week before Kyoto we should expect
    that we will have to crowd out many other articles about climate.
    2. If the Statement comes out just a few days before Kyoto I am
    afraid that the delegates who we want to influence will not have any
    time to pay attention to it. We should give them a few weeks to hear
    about it.
    3. If Greenpeace is having an event the week before, we should have
    it a week before them so that they and other NGOs can further spread
    the word about the Statement. On the other hand, it wouldn’t be so
    bad to release the Statement in the same week, but on a
    different day. The media might enjoy hearing the message from two
    very different directions.

    Conclusion — I suggest the week of 10 November, or the week of 17
    November at the latest.

    Mike — I have no organized email list that could begin to compete
    with the list you can get from the Dutch. But I am still
    willing to send you what I have, if you wish.

    Best wishes,

    Joe Alcamo

  172. JohnH says:

    Fremma says:
    December 2, 2010 at 12:37 pm

    Wild guess is that inscribe means sign so they are saying they are not signing up to any extention.

  173. John Marshall says:

    Well we have had conspicuous consumption on the opening party and now a little reality. Well done Japan. We need America to now stand up and state the same and it will be the end of Cancun and renamed to Cancan’t. ( I think this was first said by Anthony W. so I apologize for the plagiarism.).

  174. Epigenes says:

    Anybody know how 2010 can be the hottest year on record when it has not ended?

    One explanation could be that the data for December has just been conjured from thin air, much like the data used by Phil Jones et al and the UEA.

  175. DaveF says:

    All those who doubt what the Japanese have said should follow this article’s link to the Guardian and look at the video there. The Japan Friends of the Earth guy didn’t look too happy.

  176. JohnM says:

    @keith at hastings uk
    You forgot to mention we also have politicians deeply involved in tax avoidance (all colours) who expect us to pay more tax to avoid being boiled-alive as the North Sea slowly turns to steam.
    It would be better to state that we have so many politicians mired in corruptive diversion of public funds to their friends in various industries (usually located in tax havens around the world).
    Doubtless they will end their political lives and be “incorporated” within various companies (if they are not already, and many already are !)

  177. Josualdo says:

    old engineer says:
    December 2, 2010 at 8:08 pm

    So far only Paul Birch and Mr. Lynn have seeming got it right. Japan won’t vote for extending Kyoto, because it is unfair to current signers. But would vote for a new treaty that includes everybody.
    [...]
    But, since a new treaty is not going to happen, they also get released from the things they signed up for in Kyoto. Very clever, the Japanese.

    Precisely. And the new treaty wont happen because “everybody”, such as Brazil, China, India, South Africa, etc., wont have it, therefore Japan gets free. Nice move.

  178. Jerry from Boston says:

    I think comments previously made about Japan already being an energy-efficient economy is spot on so it’d be hard to achieve greater efficiencies from here on out. Same for comments that Japan may now realize that AGW is a scam and their own analyses indicate that any CO2 reduction in general, and by Japan in particular, won’t matter to climate at all.

    But there are a couple other factors that probably will push Japan to sink the Cancun confab. First, I don’t think anyone had a good grasp in 1997 of how fast China would expand its CO2 production, which is now greater than America’s and will likely double in the not so distant future. Second, Japan is now in demographic decline. Their population is aging fast while the worker proportion of the population is shrinking. They can’t afford to economically burden their population further. Third, I think the Japanes realize that they’ve been had by Russia and Germany. Those two countries racked up a lot of climate “credits” because they closed down a lot of inefficient communist factories after the Cold War ended. Fourth, and maybe most importantly, the Chinese are getting more assertive militarily and economically and are scaring the bejeebers out of the Japanese. This at a time when the Japanese are now wondering if America has the fortitude and where-with-all to provide security and protection to the Japanese homeland. I’d guess the Japanese aren’t getting any warm fuzzy feelings on this point based on Obama’s foreign policy approach to our allies. And last, the Japanese may have hoped the developed nations would be setting an inspirational example in the climate fight and thus inspire the developing world and America to join in. That obviously didn’t work out at all.

  179. JohnM says:

    @Michael @ FIFA

    The bbc had a program on the TV a few weeks ago:
    “FIFA’s Dirty Secrets”
    (http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00wfl8t/Panorama_Fifas_Dirty_Secrets/)
    Not available in other countries (well, not officially)
    and the tax-research website had a comment on it:

    “But there’s not a shadow of doubt that the demands for tax exemption made by FIFA for what is, let’s be candid, a private sporting event undertaken for profit, were ludicrous and open to considerable abuse which left South Africa considerable out of pocket and might well have done the same to the UK”

    http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/

  180. Grey Lensman says:

    Sorry to break this to you guys but Japan has a very powerful ally, very powerful indeed. Seems that God is a skeptic a denier.

    Quote

    Cancún climate change summit: Is God determined to prevent a deal? Is the divine presence a Republican? Or is He/She/It running an inter-galactic fossil fuel conglomerate?

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2010/dec/02/cancun-climate-change-summit-monbiot

    Unquote

    Penned by one of the alarmists greatest shining lights no less.

    Its over

  181. R Stevenson says:

    Clearly the Japanese economy similar to many other economies in recession cannot afford to impose costly emission controls on its industry. Particularly when it sees China next door opening a new coal fired power station every 5 days. It is about time that George Monbiot and his left wing Gradnian readers realised that the world does not want to be blugdeoned back into the Stone Age by the stupid IPCC or anyone else with senseless calls for ridiculous emissions cuts and daft geo-engineering schemes. The Earth will not warm up to dangerous levels in the next 100 years (no time at all in the geological time frame) and will continue with its cycle of ice ages and inter glacials.

  182. Pascvaks says:

    International Conferences are very much like International Poker Games, regardless of their title or the many reasons they are called into being, they are all about $$$$MONEY$$$!!!! Usually the BIG BOYS go home with most of the Mu-La, but they also have characteristics of a feast of a BIG Elephant killed by a pride of lions (because it was too old, sick, or injured), there’s usually enough left over for a lot of vultures, jackels, wilddogs, rats, ants, and a thousand and one other lifeforms. Everyone gets fed!

    Japan isn’t doing anything that is out of the ordinary. Cancun isn’t going to be as big as Copenhagen (could have been). Life and diplomacy will go on and on. But…. remember it’s all about $$$$MONEY$$$!!!! It has absolutely NOTHING to do with saving the World for anyone’s Great Great Grandchildren. Or reducing CO2. Or cleaning up the oceans. Or making life better for anyone in some poor starving country somewhere. There’s a BIG dead Elephant and it’s feeding time in Cancun, Mexico; and the vultures, and jackels, and rats know it.

  183. kcrucible says:

    “Japan’s rejection of extending Kyoto is hardly a win for the critics of AGW. Clearly Japan wants a stronger treaty. The real win is that the US Congress refused to ratify Kyoto even before the Republican victories a few months ago. There is zero chance Congress will ratify a stronger treaty.”

    I disagree. Japan is saying that they will not be bound by rules that other people don’t have to abide by. China, India, and the US aren’t going to accept these rules, so for all practical purposes Japan joins them.

    Sure, if by some miracle every nation int he world has trancendental moment and joins together in peace and harmony, signs a new accord, and sticks with it, then Japan would happily impliment it. But that isn’t going to happen.

  184. R Stevenson says:

    George Monbiot of the Guardina is one of journalism’s truly great crackpots. Invoking a Divine presence at Cancun scuppering the believers’ legally binding agreement(s).

  185. R. de Haan says:

    Pulling the plug on Al Gore.
    It took the world some time but it finally saw how it was going to look like when it was to be saved by Al Gore and we didn’t like what we saw.

    We will need a few years to role back the “fruits” of the Green Madness but in the end
    the history books will state that it was the USA that never signed the Kyoto Protocol that saved the world from the biggest totalitarian coup attempt in the history of human kind.

    Japan will be remembered as the Nation that simply corrected a mistake.

    There won’t be a scare big enough to bring us back on green roads.

    Those who still try will be rediculed, laughed at and buried with sound scientific evidence to proof their wrong.

    It’s over.

  186. Ken Harvey says:

    At last. We are all going to live happily ever after.

  187. Enneagram says:

    j ferguson says:
    December 2, 2010 at 11:20 am

    There are similar controversial topics. There are other sources of decaying smells out there..:-)

  188. Enneagram says:

    In the end…which were the only ones to fulfill Kyoto?…California and the UK ?
    What do they share in common?

  189. Sean Peake says:

    @rational debate
    Sigh. Ya. AGW gravy trainers, can’t live with ‘em, can’t eat ‘em.

    Who say you can’t eat them? They are plump and well-fed, having been raised on only the finest foods, totally organic, too. Delicious in a little white wine, shallots and cremini mushrooms or roasted on a spit!

  190. John says:

    Good news everyone, increased CO2 emissions are actually GOOD for the planet.

    http://www.co2science.org/

  191. R. de Haan says:

    You must love this hilarious post:
    Vicki Pope can’t get to Cancun, too much snow!
    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010 … much-snow/

  192. biddyb says:

    My copy of the Spectator has just been delivered by our postman. I’m amazed he made it as it is extremely icy outside despite having “warmed up” to -3.5C and also as I nearly crumpled his van yesterday when I gently applied my brakes on a slight incline, zero braking resulted, accelerated slide towards him.

    Back to the Speccie – the editorial fills me with joy: (I can’t get a link so will reproduce it)

    “Less heat, more light

    We have heard surprisingly little about the climate change jamboree currently underway in Cancun. Before last year’s Copenhagen summit, there was much hulabaloo. Gordon Brown told us that we had “fewer than 50 days to set the course of the next 50 years”. Yet he and 100 of his political counterparts could not stop the conference from collapsing under the weight of its contradictions. This year, only two dozen world leaders are likely to make the carbon-consuming trek to the Mexican coast. David Cameron, to his credit, [hmm not sure about that, but it is a Tory mag] will not be one of them.

    He will not miss much. One paper preapred for the Cancun summit, by Prof. Kevin Anderson of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, proposes halting economic growth in the developed world for the next 20 years. It continues, “The second world war and the concept of rationing is something we need to seriously consider.” Such ideas place the Cancun summit only a few intellectual notches above a Star Trek convention. [!!Sorry any Trekkies out there]

    Yet again, the conference seems to be a stage on which scientific inquiry is displaced by propoganda. And the tragedy is that there is much to be discussed. The global warming orthodoxy – to which every main British political party subscribes – rests on four pillars of received wisdom. Climate change is happening; it is driven by human activity; global catastrophe is imminent; and radical, government-directed carbon reduction is the only answer. For climate zealots, one either believes all four propositions or one is a ‘denier’.

    If reasonable debate were allowed, several important issues would present themselves. What, for instance, is the cost to our manufacturing sector of the carbon emissions targets? Green taxes will slow Britain’s recovery. But by how much, and what, precisely, would we achieve in agreeing to foresake greater prosperity? How might technological developments help us cope with global warming? And are there cheaper, more efficient ways of preparing for climate change?

    Some estimate that painting roofs a reflective white on Los Angeles properties would slow the rate of global warming in the city by 90 years. Michael Bloomberg is looking at a similar scheme in New York. Minght that be an alternative to wealth-destroying carbon taxes? The hysteria does not allow such questions to be asked.

    Historians will probably look back at this as the time when global warming alarmism reached its peak, when rational debate was at its most restricted and politicians at their most gullible. The most egregious instance of hysteria came in the autumn when the tax-payer subsidised 10:10 group produced a star-studded video showing the gory detonation of school-children who disagreed with their teacher when she recited the green concensus.

    Lat year’s political hyperbole over climate change has been replaced by an embarrassed silence – and this is almost as worrying. Serious economic and ecological issues are not being addressed. the government still accepts the agenda set by its predecessors, an agenda that threatens to destroy jobs with no benefit to the planet. the British public has never been persuaded by the fantastical claims of environmental doomsayers, so a sensible debate about climate change should be possible. All it needs is some clearsightedness on the part of our leaders.”

    I hope and pray that this might just be the thing to kick-start the debate in the UK. You can’t expect politicians to do an abrupt volte face as the other parties will just join in giving them a good kicking. But, if you start to open up the debate, especially looking at it all in economic terms, then perhaps a few more MPs might just begin to have a bit of courage and start to express their inner views (I am convinced many of them think climate warming/change/disruption is a load of old rubbish and what better time to start than now, when we have all this snow on the ground).

  193. Amaze says:

    “Anybody know how 2010 can be the hottest year on record when it has not ended?”

    The climate gods of the AGWR (r as in religion) have decided so.

  194. Grey Lensman says:

    As an aside, can somebody please explain how a two degree rise in temperature is “catastrophic”. The Antarctic is minus 55 degrees, two degrees makes that minus 53, how will that melt it. Do all the pensioners who move from Detroit or Manchester to Forida/Spain die because of the increased heat?

    No wonder the Japanese said enough is enough.

  195. Gaylon says:

    Wow, if we hear of another walk-out (did Japan walk out after this announcement?), or another refusal tomorrow this would pretty much constitute a “streak” wouldn’t it?

    Yesterday Pelosi’s climate cabal is dismantled, today Japan just says NO to Kyoto extension, tomorrow…?

    The coffee just keeps tastin’ better & better…what a day!

  196. Bruce Cobb says:

    In a daring countermove, Greedy P’s and others have staged a
    Hug Kyoto event
    It just warms the cockles of one’s heart. Next, they’ll be sitting around a campfire, singing kumbaya and eating s’mores.

  197. John Whitman says:

    Japan and the long view.

    It is probably due to an honor issue that Japan has made a firm statement about not supporting a continuance of the Kyoto Protocol. I think they see the fiasco that the EU (carbon cartel) has made of it and also the games played by China (China is not a democratic nation, it remains a rigid dictatorship) . Plus, and most importantly, they see their strongest ally, the USA, turning away from structures like the Kyoto Protocol and the IPCC.

    Their message, to me, is more like . . . the current Kyoto Protocol induced situation is so dishonorable that it shall not survive, if Japan has anything to say about it.

    I think their forward, long view, message is . . . . back to the drawing board and start this thing again but with more objective basis this time around. I take it that the Japan gov’t, by its Cancun stance, does not consider the climate to be an urgent, catastrophic situation that it is made to be by western advocates of hysteria.

    John

  198. Jeremy says:

    Enneagram says:
    December 3, 2010 at 6:41 am

    In the end…which were the only ones to fulfill Kyoto?…California and the UK ?
    What do they share in common?

    I know California didn’t follow Kyoto, as hard as they tried.
    My understanding is that the only countries that managed to get close to the Kyoto targets either had a head start already, or severely damaged their economies.

  199. David S says:

    Japan refuses to extend Kyoto treaty at Cancun
    proving that the Japanese are smart people!

  200. TimM says:

    “Japan will not inscribe its target under the Kyoto protocol on any conditions or under any circumstances.”

    Ah yes the ever practical Japanese. God bless them :)

    When it made sense go along. When it doesn’t they change their ways. If only more people in power could simply eat some crow and say “we made a mistake and we are not going to throw good money after bad”.

    Cheers to the Japanese and yes Anthony that was blunt especially by the usual Japanese politeness standards which put us to shame!

  201. Juraj V. says:

    Japan basically says “we will not continue with Kyoto until China/Brazil/India/South Korea would follow”. China will show middle finger instead, and that is the end of fairy tale.

  202. harrywr2 says:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-03/coal-s-surge-coaxes-u-k-utilities-to-burn-wood-energy-markets.html
    “Benchmark coal for delivery next month in Northwest Europe has climbed 41 percent this year to $117.25 a metric ton”

    With the price of coal on the global markets skyrocketing a ‘Kyoto’ style treaty is a waste of time. Nuclear,Wind and Hydro are all cheaper then steam coal at a price in excess of $100/tonne. Even Thermal Solar is cost competitive in some geographic locations.

    All another Kyoto treaty will accomplish is insure energy intensive industries are located in Non-Kyoto countries.
    I.E. The Japanese make the precursor chemical for carbon fibers for BMW’s new econobox car. But since Germany and Japan are both limited in emissions by Kyoto, the actual carbon fiber spinning occurs in the US even though the cars will be built and sold in Europe.

  203. latitude says:

    “Anybody know how 2010 can be the hottest year on record when it has not ended?”
    ===========================================================
    Models said so……………

  204. Kitefreak says:

    CodeTech says:
    December 2, 2010 at 8:35 am

    Good for Japan!

    Not that it’s likely, but wouldn’t it be awesome if the rest of the attending countries would do the same? I mean, in my ideal fantasy world they ALL stand up, admit the whole thing is a load of crap, and go home.
    —————————————–
    Thanks for that. Just started reading the comments and had a good laugh at yours, out loud like.

    This is cheering news.

  205. Vince Causey says:

    Gary lensman,

    “As an aside, can somebody please explain how a two degree rise in temperature is “catastrophic”. The Antarctic is minus 55 degrees, two degrees makes that minus 53, how will that melt it.”

    It is an average temperature. Since antarctic and the arctic are fairly small in proportion to the whole globe, temperatures there, it is believed, could rise tens of degrees while equatorial temperatures don’t change at all.

  206. Grey Lensman says:

    Vince says (thank you Vince)

    Quote

    It is an average temperature. Since antarctic and the arctic are fairly small in proportion to the whole globe, temperatures there, it is believed, could rise tens of degrees while equatorial temperatures don’t change at all.

    unquote

    But, there is absolutely no evidence of that sort of warming and you put in the rider, Believed, So how is that Catastrophic.

    Shakes head, Japanese cherry blossom studies break the ice.

  207. R Stevenson says:

    In the Daily Telegraph today Roger Highfield the editor of New Scientist said ‘that it has long been accepted that one of the effects of global warming could be global cooling. Is it the vagaries of the elements that we should be cursing through our chattering teeth, or the carbon emissions from Chinese smokestacks?’ How clever is that then!

  208. Clarity2009 says:

    And so the fervor of global warming activism dies not with a bang but a whimper.

  209. Enneagram says:

    Vince Causey says:
    December 3, 2010 at 9:24 am
    Gary lensman,
    …could rise tens of degrees while equatorial temperatures don’t change at all.

    I am writing from near the equator line, and, believe me, here too we are having lower than normal temperatures (not funny 4 to 6 degrees less than avg.)

  210. FH says:

    “Japan refuses to extend Kyoto protocol. ‘The forthrightness of the statement took people by surprise,’ said one British official ”

    It’s called waking up and smelling the coffee mate.

  211. John from CA says:

    As Delegates Meet in Cancun, Critics Say UN Is Wrong Venue for Climate Change Debate
    http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/12/02/climate-conference-opens-critics-new-way/

    from the article:
    “The problem we are in with the U.N. is that we are going nowhere,” says Judith Curry, chairwoman of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech. “We need a game change.”

    Because the U.N. focuses almost exclusively on limiting greenhouse gases, Curry says, a number of environmental problems that pose an even greater immediate threat than long-term climate change are being ignored.

    “The IPCC reports a ‘laundry list’ of problems but doesn’t prioritize them,” she says. “But there are two types of environmental problems. There are the ‘slow creep’ issues and the immediate dangers.” 

    One of the most compelling dangers, Curry says, is the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which could raise sea levels 19 feet if it slips into the ocean. She calls that a looming catastrophe that could happen in the next few generations but has been overshadowed by the U.N.

  212. Enneagram says:

    In the good old days of the 97-98 El Niño we had up to 28 degrees Celsius by these days in December, now we are having 18, and totally low altitude cloud covered sky (a courtesy of Svensmark’s “Chilling Stars” :-) )

  213. local local says:

    And no sign of a report of this on the BBC yet.

    Where is Roger Harrabin?

  214. Richard S Courtney says:

    harrywr2:

    Thank you for your interesting report at December 3, 2010 at 9:15 am that says ‘renewables’ are cost competitive with coal on your planet.

    Do you want a report from here on planet Earth for you to take back in reply?

    Richard

  215. Kevin_S says:

    “Enneagram says:
    December 3, 2010 at 10:22 am
    Vince Causey says:
    December 3, 2010 at 9:24 am
    Gary lensman,
    …could rise tens of degrees while equatorial temperatures don’t change at all.
    I am writing from near the equator line, and, believe me, here too we are having lower than normal temperatures (not funny 4 to 6 degrees less than avg.)”

    If necessary, I can send you a pair of mittens and a nice wool hat. ;)

  216. King of Cool says:

    They could have waited until 07 December – Tora Tora Tora!
    Perhaps a rampant giant has been put to bed rather than a sleeping one awakened.

    Heard from a man at the BOM this morning talking on ABC radio – we can expect more “extreme events” with climate change like cold snaps in Europe and floods in Australia.

  217. R. de Haan says:

    Must see: Senator Inhofe: ‘I Was Right and They Were Wrong’ — ‘I couldn’t be happier and poor Al Gore couldn’t be more upset: it has been widely reported that he is ‘depressed’ about Cancún’
    Remember Sarcozy in 2000 saying that Kyoto was one of the pillars of Global Government.
    Obama is trying to achieve his agenda via administrative measures instead of the Senate. We can’t let that happen.
    http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/03/senator-inhofe-i-was-right-and-they-were-wrong/

  218. Rational Debate says:

    Sean Peake says: December 3, 2010 at 6:44 am

    @rational debate
    Sigh. Ya. AGW gravy trainers, can’t live with ‘em, can’t eat ‘em.

    Who say you can’t eat them? They are plump and well-fed, having been raised on only the finest foods, totally organic, too. Delicious in a little white wine, shallots and cremini mushrooms or roasted on a spit!

    ROFL!! Ok, ok, so it’s Jeffrey Dahmer, Hannibal Lector, and Sean Peake

    Or, perhaps with the CAGW crop disruptions, it’s soylent green time?

    Or are we just recognizing the massive harm to society that these AGW gravy trainers are doing, and its a mercy sort of thing, with simple recycling to honor the gravy trainer wishes?

  219. harrywr2 says:

    Richard S Courtney says:
    December 3, 2010 at 11:40 am

    “harrywr2:
    Thank you for your interesting report at December 3, 2010 at 9:15 am that says ‘renewables’ are cost competitive with coal on your planet.”

    Lets do the math. A metric tonne of ‘benchmark steam coal’ at $117/tonne works out to be a fuel cost of a little over 5 cents per kilowatt just for the fuel. For a 1,000 Megawatt coal fired plant runing 75% utilization that puts the annual fuel cost at about $350 million.

    A 1,000 megawatt windfarm costs $1 billion. But since they only work a 3rd of the time we need 3 of them. So three 1,000 megawatt wind farms cost $3 billion. It’ll take around 8.5 years to pay for the wind farm in fuel savings using ‘global’ coal costs.(Not midwestern US coal costs).

    Then let’s look at nuclear. They cost around $6 billion to build in the US. It’ll take 17-20 years to pay for the nuclear pant in fuel savings. But of course a nuclear plant lasts 60 years. If you already need to build a new power plant, then subtracting out the $4 billion a 1,000 megawatt ‘clean coal’ without carbon capturet will cost makes it even more attractive.

    Is natural gas an alternative? I dunno some folks think so. The price of natural gas in the US works out to be a fuel cost of about 4 cents/KW.

    The Three Gorges Dam in China, the equivalent of TEN 1,000 megawatt coal plants was built at a cost of $15 billion. At a $3.5 billion dollar a year fuel saving compared to coal, it pays for itself in a little over 4 years.

    The reality is that year on year coal prices rose in most of the world by 40% last year, the ‘going rate’ in Asia and Europe is now at $117/tonne.

    Central Appalachian coal was selling for $54 a ton ‘mine mouth’ last December. It’s selling at $71 a ton(mine mouth) now.

    Personally I think the whole AGW think is ‘way overblown’ at best.
    On the other hand the days of enjoying ‘cheap electricity’ from $25/ton coal are over except for those folks who live in Wyoming.

  220. KenB says:

    #
    #
    King of Cool says:
    December 3, 2010 at 12:43 pm

    Heard from a man at the BOM this morning talking on ABC radio – we can expect more “extreme events” with climate change like cold snaps in Europe and floods in Australia.

    Yep the same tired message by the same figurehead that has been at the forefront of confusing things in Australia – must have been responding to a gee-up email from the team.
    Give us a last ditch appeal from the last remain gullible in Australia. “Cancun needs your help and please secure some more funding Brrrr we need to buy coal for heating!”

  221. George E. Smith says:

    “”””” Douglas DC says:
    December 2, 2010 at 4:08 pm
    what is Japanese for “Put it where the sun doesn’t shine.”? “””””

    Well our Japanese friends are extremely polite; so their way of putting your epithet is:

    “That will be very difficult to do, Douglas San!”

  222. Cynthia Lauren Thorpe says:

    To ‘Rational Debate’, Anthony and ‘others’…..

    Reading this article and watching Senator Inhofe’s address to his colleagues, I’m
    truly heartened and it’s come at a really good time ~ ’cause Ian and I have just read
    a ‘little soylent green’ article in our local ‘Coastal Leader’ (weekly paper).

    (You know how I’ve kept suggesting that all of us need to take a stroll (or, take a Ute or 4 wheeler, or trusty steed…whatever your choice) on 90 miles of pristine beach below the Coorong??? Well, my friends ~ the ‘greenies’ are attempting to forbid us from placing our surf fishing rods into that beautiful ocean. They are talking of ‘dead zones’ (loved watching Christopher Walkin in that in the 70’s) where NO OCEAN LIFE WHATSOEVER exist…and to ‘fight against that’… they want to take “my” (I get pretty possessive when someone I don’t know wants me to stop using something)
    ability to catch Coorong Mullet away from me! (and to think that I was just worried about my little cockles being taken away…)

    So ~ it was ‘first’ Japan…….. and now they’ve seen the (nope, not gonna use that analogy, ’cause they’re fighting to take away logging from Mount Gambier…) they’ve ‘seen the error of their ways’ or whatever and now, Ian and I will be putting our skeptical mouths and hearts and minds into the battle that has quite literally landed at our front door.

    So ~ please. Pray for us, okay guys?

    Will check in to read and continue to be blessed by Anthony and others…

    Cynthia Lauren Thorpe (thinking that ‘one, if by land…..two ‘if by sea’ ~ now means how many rods I can use once the ‘greenies’ come to Kingston to ‘discuss’ their new initiatives…Hossenfeffer, anyone??? warm smiles from a rarin’ to go Skeptic!)

  223. MWR says:

    Japan is so far up the creek without a paddle economically, I’m not at all surprised to hear this. Of course I also find it hilarious, given that they’re talking about the KYOTO protocol.

  224. Another Ian says:

    But “the harp that still” –

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/breaking-news/a-million-climate-change-deaths-by-2030/story-e6freoo6-1225965569585

    “BY 2030, climate change will indirectly cause nearly one million deaths a year and inflict $US157 billion ($161.21 billion) in damage in terms of today’s economy, according to estimates presented at UN talks. “

  225. tokyoboy says:

    Another Ian says: December 3, 2010 at 5:41 pm
    ………“BY 2030, climate change will indirectly cause nearly one million deaths a year and inflict $US157 billion ($161.21 billion) in damage in terms of today’s economy, according to estimates presented at UN talks. “

    They are fond of regurgitating the good old mantra.

  226. Suzanne says:

    Merry Christmas!

  227. Douglas DC says:

    tokyoboy says:
    December 3, 2010 at 6:01 pm

    “Another Ian says: December 3, 2010 at 5:41 pm
    ………“BY 2030, climate change will indirectly cause nearly one million deaths a year and inflict $US157 billion ($161.21 billion) in damage in terms of today’s economy, according to estimates presented at UN talks. “

    They are fond of regurgitating the good old mantra.”

    More like reading Chicken entrails to predict the future…

  228. Roger Carr says:

    Jaye Bass says: (December 3, 2010 at 11:27 am) Stick a fork in it

    You sure know how to write a grabber, Jaye — pulled me in and I’m pleased to have been hooked.

  229. Smoking Frog says:

    Epigenes 12/3/2010 2:26 am Anybody know how 2010 can be the hottest year on record when it has not ended?

    I think that, at this point, statements to the effect that 2010 was/has been the warmest year on record should be read to mean that, so far, it has been the warmest on record, and December would have to be improbably cool to make 2010 other than the warmest on record. (I don’t know that it’s true. I’m just saying that’s how the statements should be read.)

    However, it should be easy to see that there might be a very high likelihood that 2010 will be the warmest on record. For example, suppose that the annual anomaly is the average of 12 monthly anomalies. For it to be lower than the 11-month average, the 12th month anomaly must be lower than the 11-month average, and if the 11-month average is high enough, the 12th month anomaly would have to be improbably low to make the annual anomaly other than the warmest on record.

    Many people who post comments on this blog seem to think that the warmist authorities are incredibly stupid. It’s not true!

  230. davidmhoffer says:

    “Anybody know how 2010 can be the hottest year on record when it has not ended?”

    Haven’t been following along? OK, I’ll ‘splain how they does it.

    1. Estimate temps for rest of year.
    2. Calculate average for year, declare hottest based on estimates.
    3. Record actual temps for balance of year, and at end of year…
    4. Adjust them to match estimates.
    5. Site match to estimates as proof adjustments are accurate.

    In extreme cases where the recorded temps diverge so far from the estimates that they cannot be adjusted sufficiently, they may be replaced with tree rings.

  231. nc says:

    If the world had not gone into an economic downturn Gore may have been upto one billion in wealth by now. I believe Japan is just pulling out for the economics, not bad science.

  232. kuhnkat says:

    Looks like Japan just performed a preemptive strike on the IPCC anchorage!!

    I think it was self defense this time though!!

  233. kuhnkat says:

    Smoking Frog,

    Actually, December would have to be exceptionally WARM to make this the warmest year!! November has already been exceptionally cold and the rest of the year has NOT exceeded 1998.

  234. Feet2theFire says:

    The tipping point has come and gone…

    After Climategate, the warmers no longer have their soapbox to themselves, and with their mojo gone, they are being abandoned on all sides.

    THEY DID IT TO THEMSELVES.

    Climategate was even more of a watershed moment than WE thought.

    Let’s give a big round of applause to:

    Anthony Watts

    Steve McIntyre

    The CRU leaker.

    HIP HIP HOORAY!

    HIP HIP HOORAY!

    HIP HIP HOORAY!

    (can you imagine what is going through Michael Mann’s and James Hansen’s minds about now?… giggle giggle giggle)

  235. Geoff Sherrington says:

    biddyb says: December 3, 2010 at 6:55 am . “Some estimate that painting roofs a reflective white on Los Angeles properties would slow the rate of global warming in the city by 90 years.”

    It’s better if you cite definitive research before making such “me too” statements. Can you tell us quantitatively where the rejected heat would go? Can you quote the present rate of global warming in Los Angeles city?

  236. “European countries from this year have proposed that it could be okay to extend the commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol if it is joined by major emitters, but we have made clear that this is not acceptable,” Minamikawa told a news conference.”

    You do realize that the warmists will jump on this, stating that it’s the US they’re talking about, not China.

    Both China and India have been given passes. The world refuses to put limits on the “developing” nations, while recommending rationing for the rest of the world.

  237. tokyoboy says:

    Feet2theFire says: December 3, 2010 at 10:47 pm
    “(can you imagine what is going through Michael Mann’s and James Hansen’s minds about now?… giggle giggle giggle)”

    Oh please don’t giggle too much. At least Hansen may now feel very very WARM after grasping (about a month ago) US$ 600,000 from a (stupid) Japanese Foundation:

    http://www.af-info.or.jp/en/blueplanet/introduction.html

  238. Al Gored says:

    Shocking news. Look who’s greasing whose wheels for Cancun:

    “EU hands China €500m clean tech loan

    European Investment Bank provides financial backing for up to 15 low-carbon projects

    The prospects of an international deal on new climate financing mechanisms received a boost earlier today, when the European Investment Bank (EIB) announced it has granted €500m (£425m) to China to support the development of low-carbon projects.”

    http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/1930032/eu-hands-china-eur500m-clean-tech-loan

  239. wakeupmaggy says:

    The scales start to fall from the eyes! What more can we hope for?

  240. Patrick Davis says:

    On SBS News tonight in Australia there seems to be some hint that many people are unconvinced human emissions of C02 are driving climate change. They still claim 2010 is se to be the warmest, or just to cover themselves claim it will be “one of the warmest etc etc…”, year on record even in the face of 130 year old cold record was broken in Wales (UK) this year, records of cold broken in many other NH countries this year and the coldest/wettest spring in NSW since 1999 and other sub-typial summer temeratures on the east coast. This cold trend has been going on at least 4 years, getting colder as each year passes.

  241. Ammonite says:

    Grey Lensman says: December 3, 2010 at 7:29 am
    As an aside, can somebody please explain how a two degree rise in temperature is “catastrophic”.

    My compliments to E.E. doc Smith. Mark Lynas’ book “Six Degrees” is excellent reading into what might be reasonably expected should temperature rise 1C, 2C, 3C etc. 1C – not a big problem. 2C – manageable problems (drawbacks and benefits). 3C – potentially intractable problems in many countries…

  242. Grey Lensman says:

    Ammonite

    Thank you, so its not catastrophic, just a problem. In other words pure drama.

  243. biddyb says:

    “Geoff Sherrington says:
    December 3, 2010 at 10:51 pm
    biddyb says: December 3, 2010 at 6:55 am . “Some estimate that painting roofs a reflective white on Los Angeles properties would slow the rate of global warming in the city by 90 years.”

    It’s better if you cite definitive research before making such “me too” statements. Can you tell us quantitatively where the rejected heat would go? Can you quote the present rate of global warming in Los Angeles city?”

    I was quoting the whole leader editorial in the Spectator – there are quotation marks around the whole article. I just thought it was interesting that I think/hope this is the beginning of a debate.

  244. NovaReason says:

    biddyb says:
    December 4, 2010 at 2:07 am

    Biddy, while the numbers are questionable, the concept of increasing albedo to decrease temperatures is well established. Furthermore, the concept is being muddled… how much of the warming LA experienced in the last 90 years do you think is do to UHI versus actual global warming. UHI would be depressed significantly if you changed all of the currently heat absorbing and then IR radiating roofs to reflective surfaces which would bounce off the shortwave radiation coming in, never creating LW to be absorbed by CO2/water and just bouncing off into space again.

    Just imagine the effect that Tarmac has… now think if it was painted in a reflective color.

  245. phlogiston says:

    I’ve watched 2 days of BBC coverage of Cancun – no mention of the Japanese announcement and rejection of Kyoto, but lots of time spent looking at the Greenpeace hot air balloon.

    Some of us are old enough to remember TASS, the good old Soviet Union news media organisation, for their comically one-sided and distorted “news”. Now is seems BBC is morphing into TASS.

  246. Jason says:

    Several climate related documents released through wikileaks. This one about the Maldives shows its all about money and self-benefit to prop up the Maldives. Barely a mention of climate, just getting a deal and getting the money:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/251174

  247. biddyb says:

    Sorry, perhaps I am not making myself clear. I visit this site every day and make the occasional comment, but I was not intending to provoke a debate here. What I am hopeful of is for a debate to be started among our politicians with this editorial as I am sure most Conservative politicians will receive a copy of the Spectator. If more articles like this start appearing in the press, the politicians are more likely to start thinking about it. They are a bit like sheep and if you can herd them in the right direction………

  248. wws says:

    “biddyb says: December 3, 2010 at 6:55 am . “Some estimate that painting roofs a reflective white on Los Angeles properties would slow the rate of global warming in the city by 90 years.”

    Some also estimate that planting Sweet Magic Alfalfa Grass on the roofs of Los Angeles properties will cause the flying Unicorns to slide down their rainbows and graze there.
    Some even claim to have already seen this happening, although they also say it is much easier to see if you smoke the grass first.

  249. Richard S Courtney says:

    harrywr2:

    At December 3, 2010 at 3:36 pm you say:

    “A 1,000 megawatt windfarm costs $1 billion. But since they only work a 3rd of the time we need 3 of them.”

    No! Since they only work a 3rd of the time we need none of them.

    They only work a 3rd of the time because they only work when the wind is strong enough and not too strong. So, having three times as many means three times as many not working for 2/3rds of the time.

    But we need power all the time. The power stations needed for 2/3rds of the time have to keep working on spinning standby – using their fuel and producing their emissions – for the 1/3rd of the time the windfarms operate. Were it not for the windfarms then they would be supplying electricity during that 1/3rd of the time.

    So, the only addition that the windfarms provide to power generation is cost.

    And your cost calculations are nonsense. If renewables were cost competitive with fossil fuels then they would not need their enormous subsidies.

    Richard

  250. Stephane says:

    I was reading this storie on a Website for this Green movement here in Montreal and they were kind of shocked…..

    Seem like that there is lots of infighting in there. From what i can read, the only one left this year are the Extremist. You have Shaman with follower dancing for the earth. You have Vegetarien that are telling you that Carrotes are our only way too save the earth. You have Vegan that are throwing vegetable at thoses who eat meat. You got Guru’s and there Gaia worshipper and they are all fighint against each other.

    I’ve also read that even in the negociation room, president from south american country are even claiming that they are there for the Earth spirit and were starting too pray in the room.

    In short, its a total Freak show this years and its going nowhere.

  251. Jeremy says:

    George Monbiot asks “My God, my God, why have you forsaken me?”

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2010/dec/02/cancun-climate-change-summit-monbiot

    Of course, God may not actually listen to George – but then again who knows – for sure high profile eco-activists all share the righteous conviction that they are on some kind of salvation mission.

  252. wayne strong says:

    [snip. Take the d-word elsewhere. ~dbs, mod.]

  253. Alex the skeptic says:

    “BY 2030, climate change will indirectly cause nearly one million deaths a year and inflict $US157 billion ($161.21 billion) in damage in terms of today’s economy, according to estimates presented at UN talks. “

    The current and past years semi-global freeze ups/white-outs have already caused that much cost (most probably) and thousands of deaths, not inderctly, but directly, not to mention the hindreds of thousands of farm animals that have died in Mongolia, China and other countries during the past three years, both hemispheres.

    As a matter of fact, 40 people have already died, directly, not indirectly, of the cold in Europe only.

    But the worst part of the big lie is that such warmist/alarmist statements are always predictions for the future and never actual real cases in the present or the past. They just remind me of the sandwich-board man walking up and down main street, telling us to repent, because the end is nigh. Such fools have been with us since the dawn of time. The only difference is that the are being given much importance by the MSM and politicians. In the good old times, they used to be laughed at and pilloried with rotten cabages in the public square.

    But times are changing. Japan, US, France, Canada, Australia, Russia, they’re all in one way or another slipping away quitely from the AGW commitments.

  254. R Stevenson says:

    Feet2theFire says:
    December 3, 2010 at 10:47 pm
    ‘The tipping point has come and gone…

    After Climategate, the warmers no longer have their soapbox to themselves, and with their mojo gone, they are being abandoned on all sides.

    THEY DID IT TO THEMSELVES’

    The Prince of Wales says – Climategate scientists were treated ‘appallingly’
    The Prince said this during a speech at London’s Science Museum yesterday to open a £4.5 million Atmosphere gallery, the Prince said that climate science”has taken a battering of late”.
    He pointed out that the University of East Anglia (CRU) is not a campaigning NGO, nor an industry lobby group. However he did fail to point out that they wielded (past tense hopefully) enormous political influence by supplying and ‘filtering’ most of the material used in IPCC reports. The summaries of which were further manipulated for the benefit of non-scientific politicians and Princes such as himself.
    He also failed to point out that despite three enquiries, the events (ie leaked emails showing that the rsearchers manipulted and suppressed data to back up the theory of man-made global warming) are still not clear.
    The final enquiry cleared the scientists of any dishonesty or exaggerating the extent of global warming.
    But it said they had been “unhelpful” and not sufficiently open about research that supported the case for man-made global warming. To say that this is ‘apalling treatment’ is nothing short of apalling hyperbole.
    The Prince has said that sceptics used “pseudoscience” and “intimidation” to stop the world from addressing global warming. He said more and more people were listening to the “siren voices” of sceptics who claimed the theory of man-made global warming was a “sinister attempt to undermine the capitalist system”.
    Clearly the Prince will be OK on his large estates when the rest of us go back to a feudal existence of subsistence farming.
    Anyway keep up the battering; and no-one asked Professor Jones to stand down he did it himself.

  255. Helge says:

    Here’s another analysis from thenewamerican.com – not sure it has been mentioned in this thread before.

    http://www.thenewamerican.com/

  256. Helge says:

    Here’s another analysis from thenewamerican.com – not sure it has been mentioned in this thread before.

    http://www.thenewamerican.com/index.php/tech-mainmenu-30/environment/5384-carbon-credits-market-could-collapse-absent-cancun-deal

  257. Chainsaw says:

    Boy, this post really brought out the wingnuts in force. Japan says, in no uncertain terms, “we won’t continue to support a law that punishes us for doing the right thing, while the large-scale criminals get a free pass – but we WILL support a law that punishes all criminals equally” – and everyone whoops “See! Japan wants to legalize it too!”

    “The biggest problem is that an agreement has not been reached on a framework in which all major emitters will participate,” Minamikawa told the Japanese news agency Kyodo.

    The degree of scientific illiteracy demonstrated in these comments is so deep and so thorough, that I don’t think there’s any hope, ever, that reason or data will change these people’s minds.

    I think science’s biggest mistake in the whole issue was not calling it “global weirding” before the media got to label it. The term would better explain its effect on local phenomena as well as its effect on human culture and belief. I expect the transition to understanding to be no more smooth than the transition towards the modern understanding that supernatural beings in religion are a crock of poo. That transition has taken some two hundred years, and STILL isn’t anywhere near over.

  258. Al Gored says:

    R Stevenson says:
    December 4, 2010 at 9:23 am

    “The Prince of Wales says…”

    More from the UK’s best example of the negative impacts of genetic bottlenecks:

    “Prince Charles yesterday urged the world to follow Islamic ‘spiritual principles’ in order to protect the environment.”

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1285332/Follow-Islamic-way-save-world-Charles-urges-environmentalists.html#ixzz0qVedA7z5

  259. Ammonite says:

    Grey Lensman says: December 4, 2010 at 1:50 am
    Thank you, so its [+2C] not catastrophic, just a problem. In other words pure drama.

    There is plenty of ground between “pure drama” and “total catastrophe”. At +2C water security becomes a significant issue for many countries due to their dry season river flow being augmented by glacial melt. An arc of countries from Pakistan through South East Asia to China would be impacted for example. Would this mark the end of civilization? No. Could it entail social disruption, hardship, high cost etc? Yes.

  260. Roger Carr says:

    Trevor posted this relevant link (December 4, 2010 at 1:55 pm) in Tips & Notes:

    Steven Guilbeault of the Montreal-based environmental group Equiterre said from Cancun that extending the Kyoto agreement is crucial to countering climate change, especially since last year’s summit in Copenhagen drew limited results.

    He said “it’s no surprise to anybody here” that Canada is opposed to Kyoto, though he said observers were caught off guard on Friday when Figueres told a news conference that Canada was opposed to extending the agreement.

  261. Jessie says:

    Feet2theFire says: December 3, 2010 at 10:47 pm
    tokyoboy says: December 3, 2010 at 11:37 pm
    R Stevenson says: December 4, 2010 at 9:23 am
    Al Gored says: December 4, 2010 at 1:33 pm

    Water ways, catchments and population are important. As is argy-bargy that is continuing with the fight over property and what research is done to contribute and/or shape that debate. Including the expenditure shaped by the research and policies.

    http://www.wepa-db.net/policies/state/japan/japan.htm
    Lough Neagh http://www.loughneagh.com/
    though this map may be more suitable? http://wikimapia.org/4823067/Lough-Neagh-Loch-nEathach

    Property concerns and rights : -http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1488909/Earls-death-casts-cloud-over-troubled-waters.html

    Notes on Mercury in the Environment – Whats going on? (health inc IQ: nutrition: fish) Robert Ferguson http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/notes_on_mercury.pdf

  262. Grey Lensman says:

    Oh dear, Ammonite, now I am truly confused. If it gets warmer, more glacier melt and South East Asian rivers are saved. But if it gets colder, The glaciers stop melting and the rivers dry up.

    But

    The monsoon rains save the day because as it gets warmer, there is more evaporation, more river flow.

    See drama, not catastrophe.

  263. Ammonite says:

    Grey Lensman says: December 4, 2010 at 9:54 pm
    If it gets warmer, more glacier melt and South East Asian rivers are saved. But if it gets colder, The glaciers stop melting and the rivers dry up. But The monsoon rains save the day because as it gets warmer, there is more evaporation, more river flow.

    More glacial melt is what we have now. The problem is that it is not sustainable. In the extreme, as is happening in some parts of the Andes, a glacier can vanish altogether (the equivalent of a dam running dry). There comes a point where dry season river flows are reduced.

    Intensification of monsoon rains definitionally occurs in the wet season. One can imagine a shift to wetter wets and drier dries. I normally don’t describe building additional dams as “pure drama”. Such an adaptation approach would be in the “high costs” column mentioned upstream. As I mentioned above, I do not think +2C represents catastrophe. I don’t think it is trivial either.

  264. Richard S Courtney says:

    Ammonite:

    You say;
    “As I mentioned above, I do not think +2C represents catastrophe. I don’t think it is trivial either.”

    Perhaps you are right. If so then we will need to adapt.

    One thing is certain, though. Effects of constraining the use of fossil fuels at their present levels would be horrific, and effects of reducing their use would be catastrophic.

    Richard

  265. Ammonite says:

    Richard S Courtney says: December 5, 2010 at 7:34 am
    One thing is certain, though. Effects of constraining the use of fossil fuels at their present levels would be horrific, and effects of reducing their use would be catastrophic.

    Hi Richard. I’ve found David McKay’s analysis (http://www.withouthotair.com/) very useful in thinking about the engineering scale required to reduce fossil fuel usage. Uncomfortably for the environmental movement, it requires more than a few wind farms to accomplish any transition.

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