While sunspots are often the proxy of choice for solar activity reports, the 10.7 cm radio band is also an excellent indicator of solar activity. As you can see in this NOAA graph below, it is slowly coming up, but there’s still a fair gap to the red line, which represents the predicted level.
Dr. Leif Svalgaard maintains a number of automated plots on solar data, one of which compares the current solar minimum to 1954, which is also considered to be a significant solar minimum. The flatness is instructive:
In other news, the Ap magnetic index still needs a jump start:
h/t to David Archibald in Tips and Notes
You are a braver man than I am, eyeballing the flatness of measured radio flux against predicted in your top graph. One single spike in Nov could have you back on track. Remember what Dr Wegman said about using statistics advice more often. You can’t will the figures to follow the path you’d like to see. That’s been a criticism directed to the other mob.
“You can’t will the figures to follow the path you’d like to see. That’s been a criticism directed to the other mob.”
Except this is Solar Science, Climate Science’s mirror twin.
I wonder if Dr. Leif Svalgaard would consider trying the comparison of current solar activity to other long minimum dates besides 1954. I do check his 10.7 chart quite a bit and that pink prediction line has changed a few times. Im really interested in hearing more about the Ap magnetic index as it relates to magnetic pole movement and the magnetosphere. I have a few sites I visit for those but need a few pointers to more current research papers.
I thought that even if it was to follow this latest predicted path it doesn’t mean much after the previous failed predictions.
eg:
http://www.physorg.com/news86010302.html
These results are just the latest signs pointing to a big Cycle 24. Most compelling of all, believes Hathaway, is the work of Mausumi Dikpati and colleagues at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado. “They have combined observations of the sun’s ‘Great Conveyor Belt’ with a sophisticated computer model of the sun’s inner dynamo to produce a physics-based prediction of the next solar cycle.” In short, it’s going to be intense.
SSN comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 to Nov 14th
http://www.solen.info/solar/cyclcomp2.html
The article “rc” posted:
http://www.physorg.com/news86010302.html
Would be hillarious if it wasnt for the fact that these charlatans are wasting tax payer money on their “witchcraft”. Hathaway and co. have revised their predictions so many times that they have become a joke.
In any other field, such epic failure would result in – at minimum – disciplinary action, and probably sackings.
ABJ
You are comparing a sun speck number to the historic sunspot number. This has the same problem that the hurricaine reporting has – counting things that would never been counted in the historic record. In fact, there seems to be a competition between reporting sites to who can find the smallest speck and report it first.
i prefer this site for a historically accurate current sunspot count
http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50
No need to panic, not yet ; SC25 might be far more worrisome. Magnetic (polar) field is a bit slow, but still on the track for a flip some time in 2012.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC2.htm
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC6.htm
> While sunspots are often the proxy of choice for solar activity
> reports, the 10.7 cm radio band is also an excellent indicator
> of solar activity.
… and the gap you speak of is smaller with respect to the NOAA sunspot plot
http://www.solarcycle24.com/sunspots.htm
The Ap index (and its logarithmic cousin Kp) track geomagnetic “quakes” induced by the solar wind, indirectly related to the solar radio flux.
You will may note that the total solar irradiance (TSI), as measured by the SORCE satellite has also showed a decline recently.
http://leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.pnghttp://leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png
But as Dr. Svalgaard has pointed out elsewhere, this is an aging spacecraft (2003), and it’s not clear whether this decline is real, or a calibration issue. They will eventually figure it out but it will take a while. Have to be patient.
> … SORCE satellite
oops, double pasted try this
http://leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png
Looking at the active regions, it’s possible it will break 100 for the first time this cycle in the next few days. The Watts effect in force again. 🙂
http://www.climate4you.com/images/HadCRUT3%20and%20TropicalCloudCoverISCCP.gif
Is there any available update of total cloud cover? ISCCP runs to 2007 only.
The F10.7 flux values are very stable and not showing the typical up ramp. It might be interesting to compare SC24 flux with SC2o. SC20 was a low cycle caused by a smaller solar disturbance than what we see today, but if SC24 is tracking lower than Sc20, the writing might be on the wall.
Low F10.7 flux also means low EUV. Sustained low EUV coupled with a rapidly developing neg PDO and a century class La Nina will have climatic impacts that will result in a massive winter for the northern hemisphere.
Interesting development, thanks Anthony. The flatness of the current solar minimum is worse than the flatness of 1954 minimum. Meanwhile, can someone update us about new literatures on Sun-GCRs connection?
Yarmy says:
November 17, 2010 at 2:44 am
Looking at the active regions, it’s possible it will break 100 for the first time this cycle in the next few days. The Watts effect in force again. 🙂
That might depend on what type of region we experience. The current trend is towards unipolar regions which typically are not strong when measuring F10.7 flux. There is a very high ratio of unipolar regions this cycle.
So we have two problems, less sunspot activity and a greater proportion of weaker region types.
A F10.7 reading of 100 is about half of what we would expect now from a strong cycle.
Geoff Sharp says:
November 17, 2010 at 3:03 am
The current trend is towards unipolar regions which typically are not strong when measuring F10.7 flux. There is a very high ratio of unipolar regions this cycle.
Hi Geoff
It could be a sign what SC25 may have in store, very controversial but possible, very low cycle with no polarity reversal to SC26.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC2.htm
vukcevic says:
November 17, 2010 at 3:14 am
Hi Vuk, I would think very possible, we are in uncharted waters. There are proxy records suggesting this may happen.
Currently the F10.7 trend suggests to me SC24’s smoothed maximum will be around 105. Ultra low solar cycle!
Geoff Sherrington says: “You can’t will the figures to follow the path you’d like to see”
I can’t see any attempt to “will the figures” in this post.
The latest article for Cancun Week is the second part of the Low Carbon Plot Chinese translation.
http://ourmaninsichuan.wordpress.com/
Pointman
German Scientist, CO2 not the cause of climate change, cold period is anticipated
http://notrickszone.com/2010/11/16/german-scientist-co2-not-the-cause-of-climate-change-cold-period-is-anticipated/
Having watched sunspot counts for a while (in the hope of having some sunspots to view … which I’ve only managed once since I got the telescope).
It’s quite laughable the way each and every month shows a prediction of an upswing in count number only to be totally ignored by the real data.
It’s just like global temperature data again. People make predictions and then they fall flat on their face.
Its interesting to compare this cycle with others:
http://www.solen.info/solar/cyclcomp2.html
> I can’t see any attempt to “will the figures” in this post.
… except the title “The unbearable flatness of 10.7”. Sounds a little like impatience with the status quo.
Look, climatologists have stated that SOL has no effect on climate. It IS driven by CO2, don’t you chimps know that?
/Sarc off