Guest post by Thomas Fuller
It should be clear to all who are following climate issues that the establishment is flailing a bit in regards to how they should be dealing with a pesky public.
Ever since Climategate, Copenhagen, and a cold winter in western media capitals, their old techniques have been increasingly ineffective. Whereas before it was enough to combine a ‘sexy’ symbol, such as a polar bear or a Himalayan glacier, with a press release of a new paper showing how models predict doom for whatever symbol they used, now people seem to want things like data, whatever that is.
But there really isn’t enough data to make a definitive case for the type of climate change the establishment needs to command immediate and decisive action. (And it is my personal opinion that that is precisely the way it works–deciding the appropriate action and then searching for supporting information, of whatever quality they can drum up.)
Since then, we have seen some rather dubious attempts to play the media game differently, starting with an attack on Andrew Montford’s book ‘The Hockey Stick Illusion, where a blog aptly named Scholars and Rogues tried to mathematically prove that nobody needed to read the book, and then the sad coda to a great career for the late Stephen Schneider, where they hammered out a libelous paper purporting to show that establishment scientists were far more qualified (and better looking as well) than skeptics, which they did by looking only in English language publications, getting names and jobs wrong, and miscounting published papers.
That didn’t work. So they began also to run advertisements, such as jet planes crashing into skyscrapers, and the more recent explosion of skeptical children and soccer stars.
None of it is working right now. They literally cannot admit uncertainty, and they have lost the aura of invincibility–or at least authority. Criticism of the major skeptical figures hasn’t worked in the past–Lindzen, Spencer, Christy and others do not appear to have been damaged by accusations of tobacco use and being religious, and the screaming about conservative rich people giving liberal amounts of money to conservative think tanks is too obviously hypocritical when balanced against the amounts of money available to the establishment position. And it certainly hasn’t worked against new critics, such as Steve McIntyre or our host here.
The 10:10 video ‘No Pressure’ is a new symbol–not one that the Establishment will cherish. It’s a symbol of failure to communicate. They sent a message all right, just as the WWF, Stephen Schneider and Scholars and Rogues sent messages.
But they’re not listening–and so in the end they cannot communicate.
Thomas Fuller http://www.redbubble.com/people/hfuller
Good job Thomas Fuller.
The words now match the music.
Great opening vid with Strother Martin.
Something wicked this way comes…
Yes The Global Warmers are getting more desperate; but they are not out by any means.
1. We have to be more effective. Videos help a lot. Have a look at:
3PartVIDEO on Advances In solar-based forecasts+fight CarbonCon
AND in Comments section see MESSAGE to ED MILLIBAND the new UK Labour Party leader. See http://bit.ly/aGRw7v
2. Their desperation is now taking a dangerous eco-fascist turn which is extending into academia and cannot be ‘laughed away’. Please see COMMENT1 in
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=6383&linkbox=true&position=8
Many WUWT readers are too young to remember the singing satirist (and mathematician), Tom Lehrer. One of his famous lines, which certainly applies to climate alarmism, is:
If you can’t communicate, the least you can do is to shut up.
A failure to communicate? They’ve been doing this for a decade. Maybe it’s a questionable message?
“None of it is working right now.” – so that explains the dramatic increase in the green vote in the recent Australian election – right after the Watts tour no less.
And you talk of libelous papers when the daily tone here by commentators itself is libelous. Who hasn’t been called a fraud or corrupt by now?
hmmmmm….
REPLY: “libelous tone”? Heh, that’s a new one. Your comment is a perfect example of why dealing in hard facts is so hard for people like yourself. Libel is or isn’t, “tone” doesn’t cut it. If you want to accuse of libel, make a citation, otherwise take your “tone” elsewhere. – Anthony
Tom, I have been posting this message for the last six mionths, “quit the bashing, stick to the science, and treat us as adults, then, and only then will we the people be willing to sit down and listen to you!
Guess what? Not one of the established team members has ever replied, and some have not even allowed my comment through. Ironically, it seems that Gavin is the only one to try to go the extra yard now and then, as when he appeared on collide-a-scape and for a while was actually responding in an adult way. As for MT, he talks to us as though we are children, no respect for him at all.
“That didn’t work. So they began also to run advertisements, such as jet planes crashing into skyscrapers, and the more recent explosion of skeptical children and soccer stars”
Can’t wait to see the ads featuring OBL cuddling a penguin, tears welling, telling the west they’re guilty of scaring the children.
and after a summer that never really materialized in California to snow that is falling early in the mountains of Italy, government fed ‘scientists’ wonder why no one is listening to them.
The Establishment is caught in it’s own rhetoric.
A Skeptical Snowball rolls downhill, gathering many once ardent ‘the science is settled’ supporters.
Piers Corbyn says:
October 3, 2010 at 7:51 pm
We know, Piers, we know. The EPA has been directed to take measures that can only result in bringing great harm to America.
We vote in November, and that is our part to play.
I hope you and Joe Bastardi keep up with the real world weather forecast messages.
That stuff really counts in keeping things honest.
The myth – purveyors stories are becoming less credible by the day, in direct proportion to a better informed public. Love to see a WUWT graph on that.
Next step: close down the internet information channels?
If the coming winter in the northern hemisphere is as bad as I think it will be, that will be the coffin lid slamming shut.
I found this article recently and it seems to be a good summary of the state of the climate change movement and ties well into what is shown above. Its not new but a search of WUWT did not yield any hits so maybe it would be better late than never. Thanks goes out to John Brignell for a very well written account of how we got here.
http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/religion.htm
I’m sure some readers, and especially Piers, will be interested in how the UK Met Office chooses to deliver its message on the reliability of its weather forecasting (via the Daily Telegraph)
“Michael Lawrence, a Met Office forecaster … said that while the Met Office always quantified the probability of long-term weather scenarios, others were not so rigorous.
“What these forecasters do is pit themselves in opposition to what we say and if they get it right they get a lot of publicity,” he lamented.
If they got it wrong “nobody knows who they are” so it did not matter, he added.
I must be tone deaf – haven’t come across any libelous tones here yet, 🙂
Well said.
One discrepancy though. You’re using the antiquated term, created by the progressives, “Climate Change”.
Either you’re behind the times, and not using Global Climate Disruption, or you’re just slow to catch the uptake.
I’d suggest you do not allow the opposing side to define the terms of the debate. Either stick to their original definition, and force them to live with it (“Global Warming”), or we finally begin to define the terms.
Global Warming, Climate Change, and now Global Climate Disruption. These have been the terms the establishment has used/refined in order to advance their arguments (or slow their backsliding).
Political Warming, Bank Account Warming, Global Progress Disruption, Anti-Science Alarmist, Ostrich Science, Chicken Little Science, or almost any number of other terms would be FAR more accurate in describing the processes and people involved (and screaming most loudly) in the debate.
Best wishes, and again, don’t just let the other side tilt the playing field by constantly redefining the terms of the debate.
What happens to respect for science if global warming goes down?
I wonder about that and even worry some. It used to be one trusted scientists, or the solid majority anyway, to walk the straight and narrow, be objective, and make a few mistakes of course — but not many.
However now, for the whole field, for those hundreds and thousands of scientists who signed global warming petitions, and every advocate who said, “The science is settled,” or words to that effect, and there was no vast uprising of scientists to say otherwise, there is nowhere to run, nowhere to hide.
The whole world of Western science will have shown itself to be no better than Soviet science with Lysenkoism. If that happens, it will be very sad.
David Davidovics,
Thanks for posting that great John Brignell essay. Really excellent.
Fool me once :
And you talk of libelous papers when the daily tone here by commentators itself is libelous. Who hasn’t been called a fraud or corrupt by now?
Reply:
It doesn’t help the cause for the alarmist when all their star players all spend their time (and millions) driving around in chauffeured cars, living in huge mansions, and cottages on secluded islands, or leave their “tour busses” running in the parking lot (for the sake of air conditioning) while they preach about the rest of the world keeping a small carbon footprint.
Damn their hypocrisy. They are all about being privileged and slinging bullshit to the masses!!! I can’t stand the green-asses that flew to Copenhagen to cheer on the hypocrites.
If you are going to try to get me on side, at the very least, lead by example!
Let me see Big Al in a Prius…it can even be bulletproof, I’m fine with that.
Good work Thomas. I think it is a case of mass “Cognitive Dissonance”. Pseudo-science is not my business but this geologist will take on a contract (government funded of course) to study it. I am not completely convinced this is just a communication failure, although it has been that. I more suspect the “great unwashed” has more sense then these “true believers” seem to think. They see through the sham and rhetoric on both sides and are looking for the lesser of evils since the middle ground seems to be nonexistent.
CRS, Dr.P.H. says:
October 3, 2010 at 8:45 pm
If the coming N. Hemisphere La Nina is as strong as it is gathering up to be, it will be one to remember.
The Canadian Geese have been spotted flying south in the Central Valley of California.
The Sun is once again not co-operating, as regards to getting up to speed on those Omega Blocking Highs.
The absence of communication is not a flaw -it is a strategy.
Huxley,
I wouldn’t worry too much. Science has given us too much to just be abandoned, and most science is still done correctly, using verifiable research with irefutable results. However, when the time comes and global climate disruption turns out to not be that disrupting then it will be that no one believes in globalwarming and no one ever did. And the whole thing will be swept under the rug of history like so many others before.
Its not so much a failure in communication as it a failure to understand with whom they are communicating.
The 10:10 slaughter-fest, like the falling polar bears and plane crashing into Manhattan before it, are all about communicating with the converted, rather than trying to convince the rest.
I’m pretty sure it never crossed their minds that these ads might be seen as horrid and even psychotic. But if these were actually preaching to the choir, then it would not have mattered as this is what they have been preaching for twenty years. The converted would see it as an attempt to inject some humor in their otherwise depressing day of worrying about how the planet was going to hell.
Maybe I’m wrong, but at least this makes sense (in an admittedly twisted way) of their lack of remorse for making light of the killing of school kids.