Our one stop shopping Sea Ice Page has quickly become a world wide favorite, and Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather uses some of the graphics offered there.
To watch the AccuWeather broadcast go to:
http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp?channel=vbbastaj
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Steve Goddard writes that so far, “steady as a rock” and offers some interesting analysis:
At the beginning of June, I observed that the PIPS ice distribution in 2010 was very similar to 2006. The distributions were nearly identical, with 2010 average thickness a little lower than 2006.
Can we find another year with similar ice distribution as 2010? I can see Russian ice in my Windows. Note in the graph below that 2010 is very similar to 2006. 2006 had the highest minimum (and smallest maximum) in the DMI record. Like 2010, the ice was compressed and thick in 2006. Conclusion : Should we expect a nice recovery this summer due to the thicker ice? You bet ya.
Since then we have read seemingly endless hysterics by Joe Romm and government sources about record melt rates, and how clueless and ignorant my analysis has been. So let’s look at what has actually happened since June 1. The graph below shows JAXA extent since June 1 for 2006 and 2010.
Basically, they are two parallel lines. 2010 has tracked 2006 quite closely – just as PIPS said they should. There have been no major diversions from the pattern this summer. Summer 2010 has been almost a straight line. Apparently some bloggers “can’t see the forest for the trees.”
In the DMI record, 2010 has passed every year except 2005 and 2006. The only real question now is – will 2010 end up in the #2 or #3 spot?
Closeup below:
At the end of May, Mark Serreze and Joe Romm had a different take for 2010:
“Could we break another record this year? I think it’s quite possible,” said Mark Serreze of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo.
We are in the fourth quarter of the 2010 game. The score right now is :
Breathtakingly Ignorant* WUWT – 1
Experts – 0
Will the peer reviewed experts score at the last minute? What do you think?
* A term coined by Dr. Mark Serrezze
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Don’t hold your breath waiting for an apology. If you do they will claim the reduction in expelled CO2 was responsible for the reduced ice melt.
Joe Romm is now naming it global boiling. This has to be a horrible summer.
Floods where droughts were to be permanent.
The sex poodle headlines
The cap and tax bill meltdown
A blockade on news of ice destruction in that other hemisphere.
I understand ole men like Joe and James hansen hang on and post pone retirement. They help us worry ’bout their grand kids and ours.
Maybe we should take some bets.
To me also it looks like a 2006 repeat. Look in Jaxa the 2002 plot, 2010 runs parallel and lower, and it gets a kink about now. If the kink happens, 2010 will cross 2008 and go for the green. Pooh sticks once more.
just had a quick peep at the Romm link and read some of the comments, good for a laugh it it wasn,t so sad. wonder if any of the commenters can remember what they put? If they can i bet they wished they hadn’t.
General question, if anybody knows: Where does Joe Bastardi’s “brutally cold N. Hemisphere winter” for this upcoming winter come from? What is the basis? I don’t follow him at all, but I’d be curious to find out his basis for forecasting. I’ve also heard others mention this before here on WUWT, but not heard the reasoning why in any detail.
It looks like Mark Serreze and Joe Romm have made a fundamental mistake for Climatologists – they have forecast something that will be validated not only in their life times but also within the current research funding cycle.
Breathtakinglingly ignorant.
More drama.
Now Joe Romm has a long list of objections and a corresponding list of rebuttals to memorize. If some one says one thing, they have a canned response for it.
I fart in your general direction! Come back and I shall taunt you a second time! You AGW kinigits!
A blast from the past…
North Pole Could Be Ice Free in 2008
By CATHERINE BRAHIC
April 27, 2008
“You know when climate change is biting hard when instead of a vast expanse of snow the North Pole is a vast expanse of water. This year, for the first time, Arctic scientists are preparing for that possibility.”
“The set-up for this summer is disturbing,” says Mark Serreze, of the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). A number of factors have this year led to most of the Arctic ice being thin and vulnerable as it enters its summer melting season.
Joe says brutal, and I say massive when talking about the next NH winter.
What do other people say?
You can put a vote in on this at: http://stip.inklingmarkets.com/markets/29529.
Joe Bastardi predicted the European cold last winter around the same time which the Met was calling for a “mild winter.
Serreze’s 3 scores behind with no timeouts remaining and less than a minute to play.
He’ll need more than a Hail Mary pass, more like a Hail Tunguska.
I think it’s astounding that in April, when the JAXA ice extent was at a 9 year high, the AGW enthusiasts were silent. Then, in July, when the ice extent was normal, they screamed about the “highest ever” rate of decrease. What does the rate of decrease matter, except as a predictor, and then only if you ignore the underlying physical phenomena? Now, they’re back to screaming about their prediction that it may drop to an all time low. Of course, if their prediction is wrong, they’ll just go find another microstatistic to spin into the world coming to an end. I recall last year when they were wringing their hands about the all-time minimum ice thickness, but now that’s recovering, and they are silent on that too.
I am reminded of Ptolemy’s cycles within cycles needed to explain Mars’ observed retrograde orbit while maintaining the planets revolved around the earth..
R. Gates says:
August 9, 2010 at 8:15 am
General question, if anybody knows: Where does Joe Bastardi’s “brutally cold N. Hemisphere winter” for this upcoming winter come from? What is the basis?
You still need to get out more. Try this link for some of his video’s
http://www.accuweather.com/video/96827541001/run-hide-the-sun-is-coming-to-get-you-%28if-you-trust-nasa%29.asp?channel=vbbastaj
Maybe you might learn something about ocean cycles such as the PDO in the process. If you watch his weekly ice update you might also discover the huge Antarctic ice extent as shown here every week.
I really am hoping for at least 5.75M/km2 (which is still very much in play, IMO), as that would make the establisment-approved panel of experts a breathtakingly ignorant 0-32 over two years so far as one of them, just once, managing to have predicted even slightly above “actual”.
The only bad side of 5.75M/km2 is I think we really would have to get up a collection for a Carnac the Magnificent hat for Anthony if he hits that close predicting almost a year in advance.
Very interesting indeed. I’m impressed especially after the low ice extent in June. I find the comment from Climate Progress typical of how the AGW arguments are increasingly using propoganda rather than science. To predict record lows this year just seems to show amazing ignorance, given the recovery already in progress and the recent peer reviewed paper from the Canadian polar researchers indicating the ice thickening up, even if it wasn’t statisitically siginificant, it was still thicker!. You’d think they’d at least be up to date on the latest peer reviewed research.
R. Gates says:
August 9, 2010 at 8:15 am
General question, if anybody knows: Where does Joe Bastardi’s “brutally cold N. Hemisphere winter” for this upcoming winter come from? What is the basis? I don’t follow him at all, but I’d be curious to find out his basis for forecasting. I’ve also heard others mention this before here on WUWT, but not heard the reasoning why in any detail.
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The shift to the La Nina base state plus a very pronounced cold PDO.
I pulled this from their free site, where it shows the eastern USA, and especially the SE US, warmer and drier. Typical of a La Nina year.
But watch out Pacific rim!
Geoff Sharp says:
August 9, 2010 at 8:32 am
Joe says brutal, and I say massive when talking about the next NH winter.
What do other people say?
===========================
I like Australia-speak, so my vote is for “massive”.
I say buy long underwear and get heavy duty antifreeze for your car.
While you are at it, make sure your home heating system maintenance is done properly this year.
Think of the coming winter as a monkey with brass dangle bits.
R. Gates says:
August 9, 2010 at 8:15 am
General question, if anybody knows: Where does Joe Bastardi’s “brutally cold N. Hemisphere winter” for this upcoming winter come from? What is the basis?
Pay attention. That’s the price.
“Could we break another record this year? I think it’s quite possible,” said Mark Serreze of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo.
—-
It’s the worst 2010 evah!
Steve,
You persist in miscalculating the ice values from the PIPS 2.0 data. You need to include concentration as well as thickness in deriving both the total ice volume as well as the average thickness.
Area is straightforward enough, and just a case of pixel counting to within the accuracy of the projection. That’s a good approximation during the summer. Here’s the results for the last five years from the beginning of July:
http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/2053/aread.png
Ice area is evidently dependent on day-to-day conditions, with several changes in the order between years over this period.
Here’s average thickness for the same period, with the thickness properly weighted by concentration:
http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/5138/thickness.png
This year is notable in showing an overall thinning of the ice over the summer so far.
Finally, here’s the change in the total Arctic ice volume, again properly including ice concentration:
http://img293.imageshack.us/img293/2114/volumes.png
Volume is evidently less dependent on short-term conditions than area, with steady trends for each year. 2010 has shown the largest volume loss of the last five years over this period.
What this shows is that betting on minimum ice area or extent is rather a lottery. On ice volume, though, 2010 looks like being similar to or perhaps a little lower than last year, at least according to PIPS 2.0.
R Gates Says:
“Where does Joe Bastardi’s “brutally cold N. Hemisphere winter” for this upcoming winter come from? ”
His preliminary winter discussion, issued July 31, is on the Pro site, which you have to subscribe to. Essentially he is counting on a high impact of land falling hurricanes in the Gulf and Southeast this season along with a moderate to strong La Nina and a cold PDO. He then uses the old fashioned way of using analog years of similar patterns to come up with seasonal forecasts that are frequently much better than computer models.
I’m not sure but maybe these might help: click, click, click.
Joe Bastardi
“The recovery of the northern ice caps will become more obvious in a two-steps-up, one-step-back fashion, but the Southern Hemisphere ice will retreat back to near normal. Overall global ice is right on top of normal and has had no change in the past 30 years.”