While Sea Surface Temperatures are cooling sharply as shown here, global surface temperature is still oscillating around 0.40 to 0.50C for the last four months. This is not surprising as the air temperature is strongly correlated with the SST but lags behind by about 3 months. Expect drops in the months ahead. – Anthony
July 2010 UAH Global Temperature Update: +0.49 deg. C
Br Dr. Roy Spencer, PhD
The global-average lower tropospheric temperature remained high, +0.49 deg. C in July, 2010, although the tropics continued to cool as La Nina approaches.
As of Julian Day 212 (end of July), the race for warmest year in the 32-year satellite period of record is still too close to call with 1998 continuing its lead by only 0.07 C:
YEAR GL NH SH TRPCS
1998 +0.62 +0.73 +0.51 +0.90
2010 +0.55 +0.74 +0.36 +0.63
To exceed 1998 as the warmest year, the daily global average temperature for the remainder of this year (1 Aug to 31 Dec, 2010) will need to average above +0.466 deg. C.
As a reminder, five months ago we changed to Version 5.3 of our dataset, which accounts for the mismatch between the average seasonal cycle produced by the older MSU and the newer AMSU instruments. This affects the value of the individual monthly departures, but does not affect the year to year variations, and thus the overall trend remains the same as in Version 5.2. ALSO…we have added the NOAA-18 AMSU to the data processing in v5.3, which provides data since June of 2005. The local observation time of NOAA-18 (now close to 2 p.m., ascending node) is similar to that of NASA’s Aqua satellite (about 1:30 p.m.). The temperature anomalies listed above have changed somewhat as a result of adding NOAA-18.
[NOTE: These satellite measurements are not calibrated to surface thermometer data in any way, but instead use on-board redundant precision platinum resistance thermometers (PRTs) carried on the satellite radiometers. The PRT’s are individually calibrated in a laboratory before being installed in the instruments.]
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2009 1 0.251 0.472 0.030 -0.068
2009 2 0.247 0.565 -0.071 -0.045
2009 3 0.191 0.324 0.058 -0.159
2009 4 0.162 0.315 0.008 0.012
2009 5 0.139 0.161 0.118 -0.059
2009 6 0.041 -0.021 0.103 0.105
2009 7 0.429 0.190 0.668 0.506
2009 8 0.242 0.236 0.248 0.406
2009 9 0.505 0.597 0.413 0.594
2009 10 0.362 0.332 0.393 0.383
2009 11 0.498 0.453 0.543 0.479
2009 12 0.284 0.358 0.211 0.506
2010 1 0.648 0.860 0.436 0.681
2010 2 0.603 0.720 0.486 0.791
2010 3 0.653 0.850 0.455 0.726
2010 4 0.501 0.799 0.203 0.633
2010 5 0.534 0.775 0.292 0.708
2010 6 0.436 0.550 0.323 0.476
2010 7 0.489 0.635 0.344 0.422
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2009 1 0.251 0.472 0.030 -0.068
2009 2 0.247 0.565 -0.071 -0.045
2009 3 0.191 0.324 0.058 -0.159
2009 4 0.162 0.315 0.008 0.012
2009 5 0.139 0.161 0.118 -0.059
2009 6 0.041 -0.021 0.103 0.105
2009 7 0.429 0.190 0.668 0.506
2009 8 0.242 0.236 0.248 0.406
2009 9 0.505 0.597 0.413 0.594
2009 10 0.362 0.332 0.393 0.383
2009 11 0.498 0.453 0.543 0.479
2009 12 0.284 0.358 0.211 0.506
2010 1 0.648 0.860 0.436 0.681
2010 2 0.603 0.720 0.486 0.791
2010 3 0.653 0.850 0.455 0.726
2010 4 0.501 0.799 0.203 0.633
2010 5 0.534 0.775 0.292 0.708
2010 6 0.436 0.550 0.323 0.476
2010 7 0.489 0.635 0.344 0.422
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Warmest July on record according to RSS, +.61C.
http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_time_series/RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_2.txt
So Mother Nature’s givin’ us the old SSTease.
Thanks Anthony– I asked about when this would be released in a comment to the last entry. This is one of the few data sets that intererst me. It has a 32 year pedegree, it’s data and analysis functions are transparent and public so it is a reliable database. What does it tell us? The 13 month smoothing trendline for the last 15 years is about .2C higher than the first fiften years, and during the last 10 years UAH has flatlined at a .2C elevated level, excepting the variations caused by moderate El Ninos and La Ninas. What does that MEAN? Buggers me. But, I do know what it DOESN’T mean — there is no catastophic temperature increase result caused by the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. The IPCC and Hanson models have been ‘myth busted’, disproven, invalidated by this database, because atmosphere CO2 has increased more than those models assumed, but the precipitous temp increases they projected have not occurred. CO2 is a trace gas, and doubling the amount in the atmosphere will not have a material impact on temperature. Next case.
Yet most of the media is ignoring the freezing Bolivians, and alarming us with the cooking Muscovites. The truth apparently is a matter of ideology, not facts.
doubling the amount in the atmosphere will not have a material impact on temperature.
Oh, I think it will. Somewhere in the neighborhood of +1°C.
evanmjones says: August 3, 2010 at 8:43 am
doubling the amount in the atmosphere will not have a material impact on temperature. — Oh, I think it will. Somewhere in the neighborhood of +1°C.
I think that’s the best guess (in line with Michael Crichton’s and legitimate physicists’) but I don’t consider turning Chicago’s average temperature into that currently for Indianapolis or NYC’s into Baltimore’s is “material.”
What is the reason for using a running 13-month average? I would have thought a running 12-month average was more suitable.
So now we can be quite sure that March 2010 was the peak, and we can calculate (according to Goddard’s crest-to-crest principle) a somewhat meaningful trend from February 1998 to March 2010. Result: No significant warming during the last 12 years.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/08599200808100
In this propaganda piece, reporter Simon Shuster wonders if Russia’s stand on Global Warming has changed since the deadly forest fires and the heatwave. A few extracts are gems of ignorance and bias:
“But while overconsumption of vodka is a familiar scourge in Russia, extreme heat is not, and as the worst heat wave on record spawns wildfires that are destroying entire villages, Russian officials have made what for them is a startling admission: global warming is very real. ”
Shuster should go back to school and learn Koppel’s climate zones for a start: yes a simple geography course will remind him that the area of Russia that is experiencing the heatwave is in a continental climate known for strong contrasts, very cold winter and very hot summers. The same Shuster was no where to be seen when western Siberia experienced 3 months of -30C last winter…
“Two months before Copenhagen, state-owned Channel One television aired a documentary called The History of a Deception: Global Warming, which argued that the notion of man-made climate change was the result of an international media conspiracy. A month later, hackers sparked the so-called Climategate scandal by stealing e-mails from European climate researchers. The hacked e-mails, which were then used to support the arguments of global-warming skeptics, appeared to have been distributed through a server in the Siberian oil town of Tomsk, raising suspicion among some environmental activists of Russia’s involvement in the leak.”
Proof? Who cares Shuster would not be bothered…
“Broadly speaking, the Russian position has always been that climate change is an invention of the West to try to bring Russia to its knees,” says Vladimir Chuprov, director of the Greenpeace energy department in Moscow. ”
Here comes an unbiased source…
“Medvedev has not been the only person in Russia to link the ongoing heat wave to climate change. Alexei Lyakhov, head of Moscow’s meteorological center, tells TIME it is “clearly part of a global phenomenon” that is hitting Russia. “We have to start taking systemic measures of adaptation. It’s obvious now. Just like human beings at one point took steps to adapt to the Ice Age, we now have to adapt to this,” he says, citing cuts to carbon emissions as one of the necessary adaptations. ”
Yes it is called an El Nino year but our reporter writes in such a manner that the source is saying what he probably never said…
“Now that Medvedev is also acknowledging the effects of climate change, Russia’s official line on the subject could start to change, Chuprov says. But he warns that convincing the public of the threat from global warming may be difficult. “The status quo can change quickly in the minds of bureaucrats if the leadership gives the signal. But in the minds of the people, myths are much more difficult to uproot,” he says. ”
Again the last word is given to Greenpeace… but russians scientists are not gullible and know that they live in a continental climate, they also understand that high pressure agglutinations are at the source of the increasing contrast between seasons in contradiction with the global warming hysteria that Shusters and TIME in clear partnership with Greenpeace are flogging in the west.
One factor which is having an impact right now is that the AMO and the north Atlantic which is spiking higher. The AMO sometimes spikes after an El Nino and it takes 6 months or so to start declining. I’ve found that I need to include the AMO in all the reconstructions I’ve done.
So, we have a 3 month lag from the ENSO (July was still being impacted by the +0.68C El Nino in April) and the AMO is high. Overall, the ocean temperatures are decreasing but it is still going to take awhile for the atmosphere to decline in step. They should continue declining until February or March next year.
Here is the AMO from 1997 to the month-to-date July 2010 value.
http://a.imageshack.us/img831/6117/amo19972010.png
“Jason says:
August 3, 2010 at 8:20 am
Warmest July on record according to RSS, +.61C.”
Warmest July on record according to UAH is July 1998, +0.52°C
After all the cherry picking going on here of late, showing the record setting cold weather from local weather events around the globe, I was expecting Dr Spencer’s graph to have plummeted. Now for a dose of cold hard reality folks: Global temparatures “remain high” according to the ever reliable Dr Spencer–and even managed an increase on last month.
P.S Steve, how is your arctic ice extent forecast shaping up for this year?
MJK
NK says:
August 3, 2010 at 8:36 am
Thanks Anthony– I asked about when this would be released in a comment to the last entry. This is one of the few data sets that intererst me. It has a 32 year pedegree, it’s data and analysis functions are transparent and public so it is a reliable database. What does it tell us? The 13 month smoothing trendline for the last 15 years is about .2C higher than the first fiften years, and during the last 10 years UAH has flatlined at a .2C elevated level, excepting the variations caused by moderate El Ninos and La Ninas. What does that MEAN? Buggers me. But, I do know what it DOESN’T mean — there is no catastophic temperature increase result caused by the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. The IPCC and Hanson models have been ‘myth busted’, disproven, invalidated by this database, because atmosphere CO2 has increased more than those models assumed, but the precipitous temp increases they projected have not occurred. CO2 is a trace gas, and doubling the amount in the atmosphere will not have a material impact on temperature. Next case.
And yet this July was the hottest month recorded for the troposphere since 1979.
“Poiuyt One says:
August 3, 2010 at 8:59 am
What is the reason for using a running 13-month average? I would have thought a running 12-month average was more suitable.”
You can distribute that symmetrically around the month you are looking at: 6 month before, 6 month after.
It’s still summer in the northern hemisphere and lots of land mass to still absorb heat. The “Big Dip” will come this winter as the southern hemisphere is colder than normal and due to the lesser land mass won’t absorb much solar radiation…. anyway, this is how I see it.
I must not understand the relationship between the daily ASU sat temps and the UAH.
I tend to read the daily ASU temps, well, daily and every day this month has been in the range of .2 – .33F lower than corresponding days in July of 2009 and it was about .25F lower than all of June. I was a little surprised that the UAH actually increased from June to July.
So now we can be quite sure that March 2010 was the peak, and we can calculate (according to Goddard’s crest-to-crest principle) a somewhat meaningful trend from February 1998 to March 2010. Result: No significant warming during the last 12 years.
You might also notice that each trough keeps getting higher and higher.
It is also false to say there has been no significant warming in the past 12 years. It might look that way drawing a straight line with deceiving month to month variations, but the average of the decade 2000-2010 is hotter than all other recorded decades before it.
Take a look at that graph, see where temperature has been from 1990-2000, and then from 2000-2010 and then say again with a straight face that there has been no significant warming in the past 12 years.
This is probable a dumb question. Can someone explain why Dr. Spencer’s Global Average Temperature is about 3 degrees C warmwr in July than in January?
mjk says: August 3, 2010 at 9:23 am “. . . Global temparatures “remain high” ”
I guess it depends on the definition of “global temperatures.” Can Lower Troposphere temps alone represent the global average?
The global oceans (60°N–6-°S) SST anomaly is at 0.4°C (down from 2°C) while the tropical focus (5°N–5°S) is –1.5°C and the high Arctic mean (80°N+) is around –0.8.
Meanwhile, here in the Bay Area, this summer has been distinctly cooler with several new record lows.
When we look at the really big picture on balance, is the trend towards record highs or trending cooler?
And yet this July was the hottest month recorded for the troposphere since 1979.
Warming is no surprise. The question is at what rate. @ur momisugly under 2C per century or over 3C as the midline IPCC projections indicate?
This good Earth has managed to heat itself up from the deep-freezers of 20 x 110,000-year-long glaciations in a row, interrupted only by meager 12.000 warming intervals (the latest one of which is sceduled to end next Wednesday, btw…) .
This good Earth has managed to keep it’s biospere intact under a CO2-flushed sky, with CO2-levels ranging five-times as high as today, when life on Earth didn’t suffer, but FLOURISHED and bloomed to hence unprecedented levels.
This good Earth has seen everything from Snowball Earth to a bathtub-hot Arctic Ocean and steaming jungles on Antarctica – and STILL has managed to stay inhabitable all by itself for BILLIONS of years without human interference, whatsoever.
All that – and we are still here – biped apes, just escaped from the darkness of the middle ages, and still playing Gods (“Prometheus Delusion” – anyone?).
So why is anybody bragging about 0.2 or 0.5 degrees of alleged higher average global temps – while WUWT, in concert with other, properly investigating sites, has proven time and again, that – due to UHI and misinterpreted airport-weather boots, to name but a few – there simply IS NO reliable database from which to draw ANY reliable conclusion to assess, if there’s a Global Warming to ANY degree going on at all – or not.
All that boils down to one single word, containing all the wisdom of all the actual UN-IPCC, GISS- and whatever-scientists combined:
“QUACK!”
mjk,
just look at what will happen, It seems that we have gone down about .1-.2 a month, and then the next month rebounds back up by about 0.05, and then down it goes again (look at this year since the peak) . Once the La Nina takes its effect on temperatures watch how cold the globe is going to get. The CFS model is having the Earth hit really far below normal by the winter season,
As I look at the graph, I see the step change, as if the climate has shifted to a new state.
From 1979 to 1997, things oscillated in a fairly stable pattern with typical fluctuations that one sees in complex natural systems.
Then we had the big el nino, and now things are oscillating about 3 tenths higher.
Until the next shift. It could shift back down.
In any case, 0.3 degrees in 30 years, is 1 degree per century.
And if CO2 warming is now saturated, it’s all up to feedbacks, which according to numerous recent research may be negative, or much smaller than alarmists hypothesize.
So, my guess, the next phase is a notch down.
Hey Phil– “…hottest month recorded for the troposphere since 1979.” Don’t your fingers get tired from all that cherry picking? Looking at almost 31 years of UAH data is at once enligtening and frustrating. It does show trends, but nothing dispositive about what caused the trends and what they may predict. Does UAH prove that all temp variation is a natural variable? no does UAH prove CO2 has no bearing on temps? no. But as I said above, UAH does invalidate the IPCC and Hanson models. In short the AGW alarmists models are busted and must be disregarded by any honest person. Instead, the honest will continue to watch the monthly UAH data and interpolate and extrapolate that data and follow it where it leads, not torture the data to justify a political agenda (see Hanson, Mann, Romm, Jones, Gore et al.) Are you an honest man Phil?
” The fan man says:
August 3, 2010 at 9:58 am
It is also false to say there has been no significant warming in the past 12 years. It might look that way drawing a straight line with deceiving month to month variations, but the average of the decade 2000-2010 is hotter than all other recorded decades before it.
Take a look at that graph, see where temperature has been from 1990-2000, and then from 2000-2010 and then say again with a straight face that there has been no significant warming in the past 12 years.”
The last 12 years go from 1998 to 2010, so you should forget about 1990-1998 (or 2000 to 2010, we are talking peak to peak here).
The linear trend from February 1998 to March 2010 of UAH monthly data is +0.0003°C per month. The prognosis from IPCC is +0.2 to 0.5 °C per decade. And the whole El Niño-year 2010 will probably even be cooler than the whole El Niño-year 1998, and certainly not 0.2°C or more warmer.
So on what do you base your opinion that it got significantly warmer during the last 12 years?