Well, not quite that bad, but if I was still on TV, that would probably be the tease during prime time. It appears that solar influences are mostly at work here.
By Dr. Dr. Tony Phillips NASA
NASA-funded researchers are monitoring a big event in our planet’s atmosphere. High above Earth’s surface where the atmosphere meets space, a rarefied layer of gas called “the thermosphere” recently collapsed and now is rebounding again.
“This is the biggest contraction of the thermosphere in at least 43 years,” says John Emmert of the Naval Research Lab, lead author of a paper announcing the finding in the June 19th issue of the Geophysical Research Letters (GRL). “It’s a Space Age record.”
The collapse happened during the deep solar minimum of 2008-2009—a fact which comes as little surprise to researchers. The thermosphere always cools and contracts when solar activity is low. In this case, however, the magnitude of the collapse was two to three times greater than low solar activity could explain.
“Something is going on that we do not understand,” says Emmert.
The thermosphere ranges in altitude from 90 km to 600+ km. It is a realm of meteors, auroras and satellites, which skim through the thermosphere as they circle Earth. It is also where solar radiation makes first contact with our planet. The thermosphere intercepts extreme ultraviolet (EUV) photons from the sun before they can reach the ground. When solar activity is high, solar EUV warms the thermosphere, causing it to puff up like a marshmallow held over a camp fire. (This heating can raise temperatures as high as 1400 K—hence the name thermosphere.) When solar activity is low, the opposite happens.
Lately, solar activity has been very low. In 2008 and 2009, the sun plunged into a century-class solar minimum. Sunspots were scarce, solar flares almost non-existent, and solar EUV radiation was at a low ebb. Researchers immediately turned their attention to the thermosphere to see what would happen.
How do you know what’s happening all the way up in the thermosphere?
Emmert uses a clever technique: Because satellites feel aerodynamic drag when they move through the thermosphere, it is possible to monitor conditions there by watching satellites decay. He analyzed the decay rates of more than 5000 satellites ranging in altitude between 200 and 600 km and ranging in time between 1967 and 2010. This provided a unique space-time sampling of thermospheric density, temperature, and pressure covering almost the entire Space Age. In this way he discovered that the thermospheric collapse of 2008-2009 was not only bigger than any previous collapse, but also bigger than the sun alone could explain.
One possible explanation is carbon dioxide (CO2).
When carbon dioxide gets into the thermosphere, it acts as a coolant, shedding heat via infrared radiation. It is widely-known that CO2 levels have been increasing in Earth’s atmosphere. Extra CO2 in the thermosphere could have magnified the cooling action of solar minimum.
“But the numbers don’t quite add up,” says Emmert. “Even when we take CO2 into account using our best understanding of how it operates as a coolant, we cannot fully explain the thermosphere’s collapse.”
According to Emmert and colleagues, low solar EUV accounts for about 30% of the collapse. Extra CO2 accounts for at least another 10%. That leaves as much as 60% unaccounted for.
In their GRL paper, the authors acknowledge that the situation is complicated. There’s more to it than just solar EUV and terrestrial CO2. For instance, trends in global climate could alter the composition of the thermosphere, changing its thermal properties and the way it responds to external stimuli. The overall sensitivity of the thermosphere to solar radiation could actually be increasing.
“The density anomalies,” they wrote, “may signify that an as-yet-unidentified climatological tipping point involving energy balance and chemistry feedbacks has been reached.”
Or not.
Important clues may be found in the way the thermosphere rebounds. Solar minimum is now coming to an end, EUV radiation is on the rise, and the thermosphere is puffing up again. Exactly how the recovery proceeds could unravel the contributions of solar vs. terrestrial sources.
“We will continue to monitor the situation,” says Emmert.
For more information see Emmert, J. T., J. L. Lean, and J. M. Picone (2010), Record-low thermospheric density during the 2008 solar minimum, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L12102.
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Reminds me of a Bob Dylan song (“Ballad of a Thin Thermosphere” I think it was called) — “something is happening here but you don’t know what it is, do you, Mr. Jones”
FYI: “The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for June 2010 was the warmest on record at 16.2°C (61.1°F), which is 0.68°C (1.22°F) above the 20th century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F). The previous record for June was set in 2005.”
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?report=global&year=2010&month=6&submitted=Get+Report
Weird, they used to call it “Ionosphere”… I guessed the rename it thermosphere in order to, once again, make CO2 the evil one.
So, the rise of CO2 made it collapse. Yet, the CO2 is still high in the atmosphere but now it is bouncing back… what gives? There is again a direct correlation with the sun’s activity but they still look away.
You had me at “Something is going on that we do not understand”
No need to worry: The Watts effect is ON:
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2010/07/15/solar-system-simplified/#comment-1114
So Chicken Little is right after all!
It’s planet X – /sarcasm
lots of irony here, with a mr. green from the so-called neocon AEI providing some of it!
14 July: ANNE C. MULKERN: Ads Backed by Fossil-Fuel Interests Argue ‘CO2 Is Green’
A group with ties to the fossil fuel industry launched a new ad campaign today pushing the idea that carbon dioxide isn’t an environmental pollutant.
The organization “C02 is Green” funded a half-page advertisement in The Washington Post urging people to call their senators and seek a vote against “the president’s cap-and-trade bill that will increase your cost of living and not change the climate….
The intent of the ad is more political than scientific, said Ken Green, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute think tank….
http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2010/07/14/14greenwire-ads-backed-by-fossil-fuel-interests-argue-co2-79814.html
pdf file of the Advertisement
http://www.eenews.net/assets/2010/07/14/document_gw_02.pdf
I guess the sky was falling.
Since this reduced thermospheric density will reduce the drag on satellites, the satellite-based temperature data will require further adjustments.
See: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/12/how-the-uah-global-temperatures-are-produced/
I’m still not good on solar material but wasn’t there a solar factor recently that went realllllly low, like it might make sunspots a thing of the past or whatever? ie no need to invoke the long-suffering CO2? (an invocation I distrust on principle anyway because I distrust the “low CO2” ice records from the past).
I’d love to hear more about the fringe solar stuff here, if relevant, if only Geoff Sharp could be seen to do trustworthy science and Leif Svalgaard were not so tetchy and territorial. I’m damn sure there is important stuff in the solar cycle correlations and so is Nir Shaviv.
http://img686.imageshack.us/img686/1962/precip.jpg
clouds and rain
er… should have been a question mark on the end of that last – it was not an assertion but a question.
Any one have Algores phone number? His power point says the only variable that changes is CO2 and it is because of humans.
Why does anybody think they know everything?
What we know about in science you could write a few books. What we don’t know would fill legions of libraries. When man thinks he is smarter than God……
“According to Emmert and colleagues, low solar EUV accounts for about 30% of the collapse. Extra CO2 accounts for at least another 10%. That leaves as much as 60% unaccounted for.”
Solar wind velocity was very low through 2008/9 till this spring, total numbers of coronal holes per year were also down: http://www.solen.info/solar/coronal_holes.html
For such a heavy molecule I doubt the concentration of CO2 in the thermosphere is significant. The molecular concentration at that altitude must so low that surely, they must not have a significant effect on the heat transport.
I guess the recovery is good news for the AM radio amateurs.
Lucy Skywalker says:
I’m still not good on solar material but wasn’t there a solar factor recently that went realllllly low, like it might make sunspots a thing of the past or whatever? ie no need to invoke the long-suffering CO2? (an invocation I distrust on principle anyway because I distrust the “low CO2″ ice records from the past).
I’d love to hear more about the fringe solar stuff here,…..
Lucy:
This web site has lots of good technical solar info, if you are willing to wade through the technical jargon. In particular, click on the “trend charts” near the top of the page, and on the “message board”.
http://www.solarcycle24.com/
ERRrrrr, Did they take into account the shift in the solar spectrum?
“.. We want to compare the sun’s brightness now to its brightness during previous minima and ask ourselves, is the sun getting brighter or dimmer?”
Lately, the answer seems to be dimmer. Measurements by a variety of spacecraft indicate a 12-year lessening of the sun’s “irradiance” by about 0.02% at visible wavelengths and 6% at EUV wavelengths. These results, which compare the solar minimum of 2008-09 to the previous minimum of 1996, are still very preliminary. EVE will improve confidence in the trend by pinning down the EUV spectrum with unprecedented accuracy…” http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/27oct_eve/
“1. The sun’s magnetic field is weak. “There has been a sharp decline in the sun’s interplanetary magnetic field down to 4 nT (nanoTesla) from typical values of 6 to 8 nT,” he says. “This record-low interplanetary magnetic field undoubtedly contributes to the record-high cosmic ray fluxes.” [data]
2. The solar wind is flagging. “Measurements by the Ulysses spacecraft show that solar wind pressure is at a 50-year low,” he continues, “so the magnetic bubble that protects the solar system is not being inflated as much as usual.” A smaller bubble gives cosmic rays a shorter-shot into the solar system. Once a cosmic ray enters the solar system, it must “swim upstream” against the solar wind. Solar wind speeds have dropped to very low levels in 2008 and 2009, making it easier than usual for a cosmic ray to proceed. [data]
3. The current sheet is flattening. Imagine the sun wearing a ballerina’s skirt as wide as the entire solar system with an electrical current flowing along its wavy folds. It’s real, and it’s called the “heliospheric current sheet,” a vast transition zone where the polarity of the sun’s magnetic field changes from plus to minus. The current sheet is important because cosmic rays are guided by its folds. Lately, the current sheet has been flattening itself out, allowing cosmic rays more direct access to the inner solar system.” http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/29sep_cosmicrays/
“But the numbers don’t quite add up,” says Emmert. “Even when we take CO2 into account using our best understanding of how it operates as a coolant, we cannot fully explain the thermosphere’s collapse”
Yes, and it’s a possible explanation, could have magnified, tipping point…or not travesty.
Translation: Back to the drawing board.
Gail Combs says:
July 15, 2010 at 5:23 pm
The sun’s magnetic field is still relatively weak, compared to normal cycles 1/3 way into thier ramp years.
A better descriptor might be diffuse. Let’s ask Leif.
“Something is going on that we do not understand,” says Emmert…….”But we’re more than happy to speculate it has something to do with CO2″… “and uh, it’s a tipping point, and the end of the world. “
Lucy Skywalker says:
July 15, 2010 at 4:43 pm
They are targeting C02 as their ‘public enemy #1’.
So they can beat us out of what’s in our wallets, like a schoolyard bully does.
Elections cometh, Lucy.
It’s payback time.
““Something is going on that we do not understand,” says Emmert.”
Life the universe and everything
but not understanding does not stop them from making a perfect hindcast of the future